The 2nd week of the US Open is here, so it's time for me to update the predictions I made last week, with some new predictions for the rest of the tournament.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 3 of them are still in. Simona Halep lost in round 2 to Taylor Townsend.
- Zhu Lin had the easiest round 1 match, and won her match before losing to Madison Keys. Maria Sharpova had the toughest opening match, and lost in round 1 as expected. Both players with the easiest and toughest overall draws are still in the tournament.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Ashleigh Barty is still the favourite for the title, with a 19.13% chance of winning the whole thing, with Serena Williams 2nd at 15.61%. The 3rd most likely winner is Karolina Pliskova with 11.69%, and 4th is Bianca Andreescu with 11.02%.
- Bianca Andreescu has the easiest draw to the title relative to their ranking, as she is 6 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than a player of her ELO rating is expected to perform.
- Elina Svitolina has the toughest overall draw, as she is 5 percentage points less likely to win the ttitle than expected.
- As for the easiest next match, it's Elise Mertens who has the easiest next match, as she is 33 percentage points more likely to win than someone with her ELO rating is expected to do.
- And Elina Svitolina has the toughest 4th round match, as she's 18 percentage points less likely to win than expected.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Naomi Osaka |
1756 |
55.75% |
33.49% |
19.87% |
8.21% |
| 2 |
Belinda Bencic |
1716 |
44.25% |
24.09% |
12.99% |
4.67% |
| 3 |
Donna Vekic |
1699 |
54.54% |
24.23% |
12.50% |
4.23% |
| 4 |
Julia Gorges |
1668 |
45.46% |
18.19% |
8.60% |
2.58% |
| 5 |
Taylor Townsend |
1525 |
21.96% |
7.88% |
1.98% |
0.32% |
| 6 |
Bianca Andreescu |
1745 |
78.04% |
51.13% |
27.64% |
11.02% |
| 7 |
Kristie Ahn |
1523 |
29.53% |
8.23% |
2.04% |
0.32% |
| 8 |
Elise Mertens |
1674 |
70.47% |
32.77% |
14.38% |
4.42% |
| 9 |
Elina Svitolina |
1772 |
51.32% |
24.11% |
10.08% |
5.88% |
| 10 |
Madison Keys |
1763 |
48.68% |
22.23% |
9.02% |
5.15% |
| 11 |
Johanna Konta |
1740 |
37.86% |
17.43% |
6.54% |
3.52% |
| 12 |
Karolina Pliskova |
1826 |
62.14% |
36.23% |
17.83% |
11.69% |
| 13 |
Serena Williams |
1854 |
69.80% |
37.88% |
22.64% |
15.61% |
| 14 |
Petra Martic |
1708 |
30.20% |
10.56% |
4.15% |
2.05% |
| 15 |
Wang Qiang |
1672 |
24.45% |
7.76% |
2.68% |
1.19% |
| 16 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1868 |
75.55% |
43.80% |
27.05% |
19.13% |
