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But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Roger Federer is the favourite to win the title, with a 26.68% chance to win. Rafael Nadal is 2nd with 21.49%, Novak Djokovic 3rd with 18.79% and Grigor Dimitrov 4th with 4.91%
- Dustin Brown has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have him as the 94th best player here, but he's 75th most likely winner.
- On the other hand, Donald Young currently has the toughest draw, as he's the 82nd most likely winner, but he's the 55th highest ranked player
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Fernando Verdasco, as he's the 106th most likely player to progress to round 2, but he's ranked 34th of the competitors.
- Qualifier Mackenzie Mcdonald got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's the 46th most likely player to advance to round 2, while he's the 101st highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter. (The table will be updated when qualifiers are placed)
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Nadal | 1916 | 93.77% | 85.63% | 75.25% | 63.79% | 52.10% | 39.79% | 21.49% |
| 2 | Victor Estrella Burgos | 1445 | 6.23% | 2.59% | 0.87% | 0.25% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Nicolas Jarry | 1461 | 39.78% | 3.83% | 1.36% | 0.42% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Leonardo Mayer | 1533 | 60.22% | 7.95% | 3.59% | 1.43% | 0.52% | 0.15% | 0.02% |
| 5 | John Millman | 1529 | 45.41% | 19.90% | 3.21% | 1.26% | 0.45% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 6 | Borna Coric | 1561 | 54.59% | 26.34% | 4.81% | 2.10% | 0.83% | 0.26% | 0.04% |
| 7 | Paolo Lorenzi | 1478 | 31.12% | 12.54% | 1.65% | 0.54% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Damir Dzumhur | 1616 | 68.88% | 41.23% | 9.25% | 4.73% | 2.21% | 0.85% | 0.17% |
| 9 | Diego Schwartzman | 1629 | 69.25% | 50.48% | 25.88% | 6.96% | 3.37% | 1.35% | 0.28% |
| 10 | Dusan Lajovic | 1488 | 30.75% | 16.74% | 5.47% | 0.87% | 0.27% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 11 | Casper Ruud | 1460 | 50.86% | 16.85% | 4.95% | 0.70% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 12 | Quentin Halys | 1454 | 49.14% | 15.92% | 4.57% | 0.63% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Alexandr Dolgopolov | 1607 | 73.02% | 34.13% | 19.74% | 4.92% | 2.24% | 0.83% | 0.16% |
| 14 | Andreas Haider-Maurer | 1434 | 26.98% | 6.92% | 2.41% | 0.30% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Matthew Ebden | 1468 | 23.09% | 8.65% | 3.38% | 0.49% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 16 | John Isner | 1677 | 76.91% | 50.30% | 33.60% | 10.60% | 5.81% | 2.70% | 0.68% |
| 17 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1608 | 65.06% | 38.53% | 21.08% | 9.58% | 2.62% | 0.97% | 0.19% |
| 18 | Jason Kubler | 1500 | 34.94% | 15.46% | 6.21% | 2.00% | 0.36% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 19 | Gilles Simon | 1582 | 67.38% | 34.78% | 17.80% | 7.50% | 1.87% | 0.63% | 0.11% |
| 20 | Marius Copil | 1456 | 32.62% | 11.23% | 3.88% | 1.06% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 21 | Salvatore Caruso | 1488 | 55.30% | 18.43% | 7.24% | 2.23% | 0.39% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 22 | Malek Jaziri | 1451 | 44.70% | 12.92% | 4.45% | 1.19% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 23 | Federico Delbonis | 1521 | 31.74% | 18.11% | 7.93% | 2.75% | 0.54% | 0.15% | 0.02% |
| 24 | Gilles Muller | 1654 | 68.26% | 50.54% | 31.43% | 16.15% | 5.16% | 2.23% | 0.52% |
| 25 | Pablo Cuevas | 1551 | 65.06% | 33.20% | 11.85% | 5.40% | 1.20% | 0.36% | 0.05% |
| 26 | Mikhail Youzhny | 1443 | 34.94% | 12.61% | 3.06% | 0.96% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Dudi Sela | 1488 | 37.46% | 17.39% | 5.00% | 1.85% | 0.32% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 28 | Ryan Harrison | 1577 | 62.54% | 36.80% | 14.27% | 7.01% | 1.71% | 0.57% | 0.10% |
| 29 | Dustin Brown | 1478 | 48.42% | 11.25% | 4.71% | 1.69% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 30 | Joao Sousa | 1489 | 51.58% | 12.53% | 5.43% | 2.02% | 0.35% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 31 | Vasek Pospisil | 1455 | 15.77% | 7.24% | 2.80% | 0.92% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 32 | Marin Cilic | 1746 | 84.23% | 68.98% | 52.89% | 37.68% | 15.88% | 8.86% | 2.90% |
| 33 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1793 | 85.63% | 75.53% | 56.65% | 35.83% | 25.70% | 12.82% | 4.91% |
| 34 | Dennis Novak | 1483 | 14.37% | 8.04% | 2.75% | 0.68% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1468 | 59.39% | 10.87% | 3.52% | 0.81% | 0.24% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 36 | Elias Ymer | 1402 | 40.61% | 5.56% | 1.38% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 37 | Marcos Baghdatis | 1579 | 60.90% | 26.48% | 8.84% | 3.11% | 1.35% | 0.35% | 0.06% |
| 38 | Yuki Bhambri | 1502 | 39.10% | 12.96% | 3.33% | 0.88% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 39 | David Ferrer | 1653 | 59.94% | 38.59% | 16.11% | 7.19% | 3.86% | 1.29% | 0.30% |
| 40 | Andrey Rublev | 1583 | 40.06% | 21.96% | 7.42% | 2.65% | 1.17% | 0.30% | 0.05% |
| 41 | Nick Kyrgios | 1742 | 87.18% | 69.28% | 42.82% | 23.53% | 15.43% | 6.74% | 2.17% |
| 42 | Rogerio Dutra Silva | 1409 | 12.82% | 4.71% | 1.03% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Victor Troicki | 1535 | 61.18% | 17.71% | 6.26% | 1.84% | 0.69% | 0.15% | 0.02% |
| 44 | Alex Bolt | 1456 | 38.82% | 8.29% | 2.20% | 0.47% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 45 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1498 | 46.12% | 12.22% | 3.56% | 0.91% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 46 | Denis Shapovalov | 1525 | 53.88% | 15.83% | 5.08% | 1.44% | 0.52% | 0.11% | 0.01% |
| 47 | Kevin King | 1500 | 20.64% | 9.95% | 2.92% | 0.75% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 48 | Jo-Wilfried Tsonga | 1734 | 79.36% | 62.00% | 36.13% | 19.48% | 12.58% | 5.37% | 1.69% |
| 49 | Kevin Anderson | 1666 | 58.55% | 42.06% | 25.45% | 14.66% | 6.15% | 2.14% | 0.52% |
| 50 | Kyle Edmund | 1606 | 41.45% | 26.69% | 14.03% | 6.93% | 2.38% | 0.67% | 0.13% |
| 51 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert | 1478 | 43.70% | 12.34% | 4.41% | 1.43% | 0.30% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 52 | Denis Istomin | 1522 | 56.30% | 18.92% | 7.83% | 2.98% | 0.74% | 0.15% | 0.02% |
| 53 | Gerald Melzer | 1480 | 48.85% | 15.34% | 5.21% | 1.70% | 0.36% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 54 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1488 | 51.15% | 16.55% | 5.79% | 1.95% | 0.42% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 55 | Ruben Bemelmans | 1485 | 25.75% | 12.91% | 4.46% | 1.49% | 0.32% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 56 | Lucas Pouille | 1669 | 74.25% | 55.21% | 32.82% | 19.03% | 8.06% | 2.83% | 0.70% |
| 57 | Philipp Kohlschreiber | 1647 | 65.97% | 44.57% | 24.39% | 13.37% | 5.27% | 1.72% | 0.39% |
| 58 | Yoshihito Nishioka | 1532 | 34.03% | 17.64% | 6.90% | 2.70% | 0.70% | 0.15% | 0.02% |
| 59 | Andreas Seppi | 1535 | 55.02% | 21.93% | 8.67% | 3.43% | 0.90% | 0.20% | 0.03% |
| 60 | Corentin Moutet | 1500 | 44.98% | 15.86% | 5.55% | 1.95% | 0.44% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 61 | Ivo Karlovic | 1549 | 54.73% | 20.20% | 9.26% | 3.84% | 1.06% | 0.24% | 0.04% |
| 62 | Laslo Djere | 1516 | 45.27% | 14.82% | 6.13% | 2.27% | 0.55% | 0.11% | 0.01% |
| 63 | Yuichi Sugita | 1543 | 30.14% | 15.46% | 6.96% | 2.83% | 0.77% | 0.17% | 0.02% |
| 64 | Jack Sock | 1689 | 69.86% | 49.52% | 32.15% | 19.44% | 8.75% | 3.27% | 0.87% |
| 65 | Dominic Thiem | 1686 | 68.63% | 47.33% | 31.14% | 14.55% | 4.63% | 1.36% | 0.50% |
| 66 | Guido Pella | 1550 | 31.37% | 16.06% | 7.61% | 2.28% | 0.44% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 67 | Steve Johnson | 1587 | 73.92% | 31.15% | 16.36% | 5.60% | 1.24% | 0.25% | 0.06% |
| 68 | Denis Kudla | 1406 | 26.08% | 5.46% | 1.57% | 0.26% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 69 | Vaclav Safranek | 1496 | 44.27% | 16.33% | 5.50% | 1.34% | 0.20% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 70 | Jiri Vesely | 1536 | 55.73% | 23.52% | 9.12% | 2.59% | 0.47% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 71 | Matteo Berrettini | 1496 | 31.00% | 14.51% | 4.89% | 1.19% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 72 | Adrian Mannarino | 1635 | 69.00% | 45.64% | 23.82% | 9.55% | 2.54% | 0.62% | 0.19% |
| 73 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1732 | 69.25% | 57.69% | 31.36% | 20.80% | 7.68% | 2.65% | 1.13% |
| 74 | Fernando Verdasco | 1591 | 30.75% | 21.24% | 7.83% | 3.71% | 0.84% | 0.17% | 0.05% |
| 75 | Cedrik-Marcel Stebe | 1482 | 62.13% | 14.90% | 3.76% | 1.24% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 76 | Maximilian Marterer | 1396 | 37.87% | 6.17% | 1.10% | 0.26% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 77 | Jeremy Chardy | 1519 | 57.85% | 14.07% | 4.77% | 1.80% | 0.30% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 78 | Tennys Sandgren | 1464 | 42.15% | 8.20% | 2.28% | 0.70% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 79 | Ricardas Berankis | 1474 | 15.02% | 7.04% | 2.03% | 0.65% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 80 | Stan Wawrinka | 1775 | 84.98% | 70.69% | 46.86% | 33.48% | 14.06% | 5.55% | 2.67% |
| 81 | Novak Djokovic | 1947 | 91.19% | 74.36% | 68.57% | 55.58% | 44.61% | 27.08% | 18.79% |
| 82 | Donald Young | 1541 | 8.81% | 2.87% | 1.55% | 0.51% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 83 | Gael Monfils | 1722 | 79.74% | 20.82% | 15.95% | 8.95% | 4.84% | 1.62% | 0.67% |
| 84 | Jaume Munar | 1484 | 20.26% | 1.95% | 0.89% | 0.24% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 85 | Tim Smyczek | 1410 | 38.55% | 12.24% | 0.96% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 86 | Alexei Popyrin | 1491 | 61.45% | 26.16% | 3.04% | 0.84% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 87 | Jared Donaldson | 1542 | 49.71% | 30.56% | 4.47% | 1.48% | 0.46% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 88 | Albert Ramos Vinolas | 1544 | 50.29% | 31.05% | 4.58% | 1.53% | 0.48% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 89 | Mischa Zverev | 1553 | 45.12% | 22.69% | 7.14% | 1.37% | 0.44% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 90 | Chung Hyeon | 1587 | 54.88% | 30.22% | 10.68% | 2.34% | 0.85% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 91 | Thanasi Kokkinakis | 1486 | 35.86% | 13.61% | 3.33% | 0.49% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 92 | Daniil Medvedev | 1587 | 64.14% | 33.48% | 11.83% | 2.59% | 0.94% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 93 | Mikhail Kukushkin | 1482 | 38.01% | 7.90% | 3.02% | 0.44% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 94 | Peter Gojowczyk | 1567 | 61.99% | 17.85% | 8.96% | 1.82% | 0.62% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 95 | Thomas Fabbiano | 1403 | 10.73% | 3.45% | 0.98% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 96 | Alexander Zverev | 1771 | 89.27% | 70.80% | 54.06% | 21.54% | 13.06% | 5.09% | 2.42% |
| 97 | David Goffin | 1745 | 82.80% | 66.29% | 46.28% | 24.80% | 8.58% | 3.47% | 1.53% |
| 98 | Matthias Bachinger | 1472 | 17.20% | 7.96% | 2.77% | 0.59% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 99 | Julien Bennetau | 1538 | 66.49% | 19.62% | 8.47% | 2.36% | 0.39% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 100 | Taro Daniel | 1419 | 33.51% | 6.13% | 1.76% | 0.30% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 101 | Evgeny Donskoy | 1393 | 34.81% | 7.48% | 1.47% | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 102 | Florian Mayer | 1502 | 65.19% | 21.75% | 6.53% | 1.58% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 103 | Horacio Zeballos | 1512 | 28.47% | 16.14% | 5.02% | 1.27% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 104 | Fabio Fognini | 1672 | 71.53% | 54.63% | 27.71% | 12.18% | 3.32% | 1.06% | 0.37% |
| 105 | Tomas Berdych | 1705 | 71.05% | 52.35% | 24.54% | 13.61% | 4.15% | 1.48% | 0.58% |
| 106 | Alex De Minaur | 1549 | 28.95% | 15.58% | 4.45% | 1.57% | 0.27% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 107 | Guillermo Garcia-Lopez | 1431 | 31.87% | 6.98% | 1.25% | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 108 | Benoit Paire | 1563 | 68.13% | 25.09% | 7.52% | 2.78% | 0.50% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 109 | Karen Khachanov | 1572 | 65.06% | 17.36% | 7.40% | 2.82% | 0.53% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 110 | Peter Polansky | 1464 | 34.94% | 6.07% | 1.78% | 0.46% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 111 | Frances Tiafoe | 1432 | 10.90% | 3.92% | 1.01% | 0.23% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 112 | Juan Martin del Potro | 1797 | 89.10% | 72.65% | 52.05% | 34.96% | 14.12% | 6.62% | 3.37% |
| 113 | Sam Querrey | 1637 | 54.16% | 40.34% | 19.52% | 4.31% | 1.68% | 0.47% | 0.15% |
| 114 | Feliciano Lopez | 1608 | 45.84% | 32.64% | 14.60% | 2.90% | 1.02% | 0.26% | 0.07% |
| 115 | Radu Albot | 1411 | 40.75% | 9.27% | 2.14% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 116 | Marton Fucsovics | 1476 | 59.25% | 17.75% | 5.22% | 0.61% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 117 | Nicolas Kicker | 1469 | 54.59% | 13.14% | 4.64% | 0.53% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 118 | Jordan Thompson | 1437 | 45.41% | 9.61% | 3.02% | 0.30% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 119 | Lukas Lacko | 1433 | 15.47% | 7.26% | 2.25% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 120 | Milos Raonic | 1728 | 84.53% | 69.99% | 48.60% | 14.64% | 7.48% | 2.87% | 1.21% |
| 121 | Richard Gasquet | 1671 | 80.56% | 54.77% | 12.05% | 6.40% | 2.77% | 0.88% | 0.31% |
| 122 | Blaz Kavcic | 1424 | 19.44% | 6.66% | 0.55% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1491 | 38.96% | 12.73% | 1.40% | 0.42% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 124 | Robin Haase | 1569 | 61.04% | 25.84% | 3.89% | 1.54% | 0.47% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 125 | Kwon Soon-Woo | 1500 | 44.41% | 3.92% | 1.41% | 0.44% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 126 | Jan-Lennard Struff | 1539 | 55.59% | 5.85% | 2.39% | 0.86% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 127 | Aljaz Bedene | 1526 | 6.94% | 3.51% | 1.38% | 0.47% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 128 | Roger Federer | 1977 | 93.06% | 86.72% | 76.94% | 66.05% | 53.16% | 36.71% | 26.68% |
