2018 Australian Open Final Update

It's the final of the Australian Open, and we're about to crown the winners of the first Grand Slam of the year! But before the matches start, let's take a look at some stats I calculated for the top 150 players after the jump:

Men's Rank	± ELO
1-10	17
11-20	-34
21-50	63
51-100	13
101-150	-8

Women's Rank	± ELO
1-10	15
11-20	10
21-50	48
51-100	-1
101-150	-23

These will both stay the same after the finals whatever the results, as all players remaining are top 10 players. The group which clearly did the best at this tournament are the 21-50 ranked players, led by Kyle Edmund, Chung Hyeon, Elise Mertens and Carla Suarez Navarro.

For the men, the worst performers were the 11-20 group, with the exception of Tomas Berdych. For the women, it was the 101-150 group who did worst, although Denisa Allertova did make it to the 4th round.

Now, my final ELO ratings and estimated percentage chances of winning:

#	Name	ELO	Win %
1	Marin Cilic	1787	23.7%
2	Roger Federer	1990	76.3%

#	Name	ELO	Win %
1	Simona Halep	1838	53.0%
2	Caroline Wozniacki	1817	47.0%

What are your thoughts on my numbers? Vote in my Twitter polls below, open for 7 hours from the publication of this blog post.

My numbers have 🇨🇭 Federer as a 76% favourite vs 🇭🇷 Cilic for the #AusOpen title. Do you think it should be higher, lower or have I got it right?

— Tennis ELO Rankings (@tennis_elo) January 26, 2018

My numbers have 🇷🇴 Halep as a 53% favourite vs 🇩🇰 Wozniacki for the #AusOpen title. Do you think it should be higher, lower or have I got it right?

— Tennis ELO Rankings (@tennis_elo) January 26, 2018