 |
| Australian Open logo. © Australian Open |
But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Elina Svitolina is the favourite to win the title, with an 11.89% chance to win. Simona Halep is 2nd with 11.38%, Caroline Wozniacki 3rd with 11.11% and Karolina Pliskova 4th with 6.58%
- Duan Yingying and Mariana Duque Marino have a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have them as the 92nd and 107th best players here, but they're the 70th and 85th most likely winners.
- On the other hand, Varvara Lepchenko currently has the toughest draw, as she's the 89th most likely winner, but she's the 64th highest ranked player
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Mihaela Buzarnescu, as she's the 123rd most likely player to progress to round 2, but she's ranked 49th of the competitors.
- Ekaterina Alexandrova got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's the 54th most likely player to advance to round 2, while she's the 104th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter. (The table will be updated with my latest rankings when qualifiers are placed)
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simona Halep | 1809 | 87.43% | 75.11% | 53.11% | 40.79% | 27.28% | 18.12% | 11.38% |
| 2 | Destanee Aiava | 1472 | 12.57% | 5.88% | 1.74% | 0.59% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 3 | Eugenie Bouchard | 1477 | 45.41% | 8.01% | 2.42% | 0.83% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 4 | Oceane Dodin | 1509 | 54.59% | 11.00% | 3.72% | 1.43% | 0.41% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 5 | Lauren Davis | 1492 | 60.77% | 16.36% | 3.75% | 1.37% | 0.36% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 6 | Jana Cepelova | 1416 | 39.23% | 7.74% | 1.31% | 0.36% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Andrea Petkovic | 1478 | 19.53% | 10.20% | 2.22% | 0.77% | 0.19% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 8 | Petra Kvitova | 1724 | 80.47% | 65.71% | 31.73% | 21.37% | 11.95% | 6.60% | 3.40% |
| 9 | Ashleigh Barty | 1685 | 66.74% | 45.51% | 32.09% | 13.83% | 7.00% | 3.50% | 1.62% |
| 10 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1564 | 33.26% | 17.30% | 9.45% | 2.72% | 0.95% | 0.32% | 0.10% |
| 11 | Camila Giorgi | 1588 | 65.58% | 27.59% | 15.99% | 5.02% | 1.90% | 0.70% | 0.24% |
| 12 | Anna Kalinskaya | 1476 | 34.42% | 9.61% | 4.06% | 0.83% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 13 | Naomi Osaka | 1553 | 61.99% | 33.13% | 13.63% | 3.76% | 1.26% | 0.41% | 0.12% |
| 14 | Kristina Kucova | 1468 | 38.01% | 15.80% | 4.80% | 0.95% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 15 | Ons Jabeur | 1454 | 34.29% | 13.93% | 4.00% | 0.74% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 16 | Elena Vesnina | 1567 | 65.71% | 37.14% | 15.98% | 4.65% | 1.64% | 0.56% | 0.17% |
| 17 | Johanna Konta | 1690 | 78.70% | 59.78% | 35.77% | 19.05% | 8.98% | 4.54% | 2.13% |
| 18 | Madison Brengle | 1463 | 21.30% | 9.85% | 3.07% | 0.79% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 19 | Anna Blinkova | 1460 | 42.71% | 11.57% | 3.56% | 0.90% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 20 | Margarita Gasparyan | 1511 | 57.29% | 18.80% | 6.92% | 2.13% | 0.55% | 0.15% | 0.04% |
| 21 | Lara Arruabarrena | 1491 | 54.31% | 16.00% | 5.58% | 1.60% | 0.38% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 22 | Richel Hogenkamp | 1461 | 45.69% | 11.98% | 3.76% | 0.96% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 23 | Kristie Ahn | 1482 | 22.28% | 11.29% | 3.82% | 1.06% | 0.24% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 24 | Barbora Strycova | 1699 | 77.72% | 60.73% | 37.52% | 20.42% | 9.87% | 5.12% | 2.46% |
| 25 | Lucie Safarova | 1627 | 71.29% | 43.98% | 18.84% | 9.08% | 3.54% | 1.49% | 0.57% |
| 26 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1469 | 28.71% | 11.31% | 2.84% | 0.81% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 27 | Sorana Cirstea | 1559 | 54.73% | 25.59% | 8.87% | 3.48% | 1.08% | 0.36% | 0.11% |
| 28 | Zarina Diyas | 1526 | 45.27% | 19.13% | 5.92% | 2.08% | 0.57% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 29 | Lizette Cabrera | 1501 | 48.56% | 11.54% | 4.62% | 1.49% | 0.37% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 30 | Beatriz Haddad Maia | 1511 | 51.44% | 12.72% | 5.27% | 1.76% | 0.45% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 31 | Veronica Cepede Royg | 1485 | 16.71% | 7.85% | 2.98% | 0.90% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 32 | Karolina Pliskova | 1764 | 83.29% | 67.89% | 50.66% | 33.50% | 19.06% | 11.56% | 6.58% |
| 33 | Garbine Muguruza | 1728 | 78.79% | 62.60% | 41.15% | 23.51% | 14.43% | 7.34% | 3.82% |
| 34 | Jessika Ponchet | 1500 | 21.21% | 10.81% | 3.82% | 1.06% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 35 | Hseih Su-Wei | 1497 | 51.15% | 13.81% | 4.82% | 1.32% | 0.42% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 36 | Zhu Lin | 1489 | 48.85% | 12.78% | 4.33% | 1.15% | 0.36% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 37 | Natalia Vikhlyantseva | 1515 | 41.87% | 14.31% | 4.86% | 1.43% | 0.49% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 38 | Lesia Tsurenko | 1572 | 58.13% | 24.12% | 9.86% | 3.58% | 1.47% | 0.45% | 0.14% |
| 39 | Kristyna Pliskova | 1507 | 26.98% | 11.91% | 3.93% | 1.12% | 0.37% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 40 | Agnieszka Radwanska | 1680 | 73.02% | 49.66% | 27.22% | 13.78% | 7.60% | 3.37% | 1.54% |
| 41 | Angelique Kerber | 1702 | 74.80% | 58.67% | 31.23% | 17.72% | 10.28% | 4.87% | 2.36% |
| 42 | Anna-Lena Friedsam | 1513 | 25.20% | 13.88% | 4.02% | 1.29% | 0.43% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 43 | Nao Hibino | 1472 | 48.42% | 13.00% | 3.20% | 0.88% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 44 | Donna Vekic | 1483 | 51.58% | 14.46% | 3.72% | 1.07% | 0.32% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 45 | Tatjana Maria | 1440 | 15.32% | 4.44% | 1.26% | 0.30% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 46 | Maria Sharapova | 1737 | 84.68% | 57.83% | 37.92% | 23.26% | 14.54% | 7.58% | 4.04% |
| 47 | Varvara Lepchenko | 1514 | 32.50% | 8.98% | 3.32% | 1.07% | 0.36% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 48 | Anastasija Sevastova | 1641 | 67.50% | 28.75% | 15.34% | 7.45% | 3.72% | 1.46% | 0.59% |
| 49 | Kristina Mladenovic | 1529 | 55.73% | 28.94% | 11.09% | 4.12% | 1.23% | 0.32% | 0.09% |
| 50 | Ana Bogdan | 1489 | 44.27% | 20.45% | 6.84% | 2.21% | 0.56% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 51 | Yulia Putintseva | 1492 | 43.98% | 20.78% | 7.02% | 2.29% | 0.59% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 52 | Heather Watson | 1534 | 56.02% | 29.83% | 11.61% | 4.38% | 1.33% | 0.35% | 0.10% |
| 53 | Polona Hercog | 1458 | 47.27% | 11.52% | 4.83% | 1.39% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 54 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1477 | 52.73% | 13.90% | 6.20% | 1.92% | 0.46% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 55 | Wang Qiang | 1556 | 29.66% | 18.51% | 10.35% | 4.19% | 1.39% | 0.40% | 0.12% |
| 56 | Madison Keys | 1706 | 70.34% | 56.08% | 42.05% | 25.23% | 13.38% | 6.41% | 3.14% |
| 57 | Mirjana Lucic-Baroni | 1538 | 47.99% | 24.57% | 8.67% | 3.69% | 1.14% | 0.31% | 0.09% |
| 58 | Shelby Rogers | 1552 | 52.01% | 27.67% | 10.23% | 4.54% | 1.48% | 0.42% | 0.12% |
| 59 | Christina McHale | 1501 | 42.85% | 18.71% | 5.81% | 2.19% | 0.59% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 60 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1551 | 57.15% | 29.04% | 10.71% | 4.74% | 1.54% | 0.44% | 0.13% |
| 61 | Kurumi Nara | 1462 | 42.99% | 9.36% | 3.67% | 1.21% | 0.28% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 62 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1511 | 57.01% | 15.22% | 7.01% | 2.73% | 0.76% | 0.18% | 0.05% |
| 63 | Carina Witthoft | 1556 | 25.53% | 15.15% | 7.95% | 3.57% | 1.18% | 0.34% | 0.10% |
| 64 | Caroline Garcia | 1742 | 74.47% | 60.27% | 45.96% | 31.60% | 18.32% | 9.67% | 5.22% |
| 65 | Venus Williams | 1737 | 78.79% | 63.19% | 43.99% | 26.73% | 14.93% | 8.79% | 4.58% |
| 66 | Belinda Bencic | 1509 | 21.21% | 11.09% | 4.40% | 1.35% | 0.37% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 67 | Luksika Kumkhum | 1463 | 42.57% | 9.66% | 3.27% | 0.84% | 0.19% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 68 | Johanna Larsson | 1515 | 57.43% | 16.05% | 6.50% | 2.04% | 0.58% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 69 | Alison Van Uytvanck | 1462 | 46.55% | 13.13% | 3.57% | 0.91% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 70 | Petra Martic | 1486 | 53.45% | 16.58% | 4.93% | 1.38% | 0.35% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 71 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1561 | 35.60% | 22.12% | 8.50% | 3.15% | 1.06% | 0.38% | 0.11% |
| 72 | Ekaterina Makarova | 1664 | 64.40% | 48.17% | 24.83% | 12.64% | 5.86% | 2.88% | 1.21% |
| 73 | Daria Gavrilova | 1660 | 78.11% | 46.63% | 23.46% | 12.04% | 5.52% | 2.69% | 1.12% |
| 74 | Irina Falconi | 1439 | 21.89% | 6.59% | 1.56% | 0.38% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Viktoria Kuzmova | 1501 | 32.12% | 11.31% | 3.41% | 1.06% | 0.29% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 76 | Elise Mertens | 1631 | 67.88% | 35.47% | 16.47% | 7.82% | 3.29% | 1.48% | 0.56% |
| 77 | Alize Cornet | 1588 | 62.40% | 22.90% | 10.48% | 4.38% | 1.61% | 0.63% | 0.20% |
| 78 | Wang Xinyu | 1500 | 37.60% | 9.98% | 3.41% | 1.06% | 0.28% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 79 | Sofia Kenin | 1515 | 21.99% | 9.75% | 3.51% | 1.15% | 0.33% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 80 | Julia Gorges | 1735 | 78.01% | 57.37% | 37.70% | 23.07% | 12.83% | 7.52% | 3.90% |
| 81 | Sloane Stephens | 1669 | 64.54% | 48.17% | 30.34% | 13.80% | 6.80% | 3.39% | 1.45% |
| 82 | Zhang Shuai | 1565 | 35.46% | 21.91% | 10.77% | 3.55% | 1.26% | 0.46% | 0.14% |
| 83 | Denisa Allertova | 1480 | 49.57% | 14.74% | 5.58% | 1.35% | 0.35% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 84 | Pauline Parmentier | 1483 | 50.43% | 15.18% | 5.80% | 1.42% | 0.37% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 85 | Jennifer Brady | 1489 | 49.86% | 17.52% | 6.39% | 1.60% | 0.43% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 86 | Magda Linette | 1490 | 50.14% | 17.68% | 6.48% | 1.63% | 0.43% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 87 | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | 1449 | 24.13% | 10.67% | 3.37% | 0.72% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 88 | Daria Kasatkina | 1648 | 75.87% | 54.13% | 31.28% | 13.41% | 6.22% | 2.93% | 1.17% |
| 89 | Peng Shuai | 1637 | 68.75% | 49.27% | 18.86% | 10.38% | 4.66% | 2.12% | 0.82% |
| 90 | Marta Kostyuk | 1500 | 31.25% | 16.72% | 3.96% | 1.45% | 0.40% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 91 | Jaimee Fourlis | 1492 | 55.30% | 19.95% | 4.58% | 1.63% | 0.44% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 92 | Olivia Rogowska | 1455 | 44.70% | 14.06% | 2.78% | 0.86% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 93 | Maria Sakkari | 1505 | 41.73% | 8.44% | 3.59% | 1.34% | 0.38% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 94 | Katerina Siniakova | 1563 | 58.27% | 14.84% | 7.49% | 3.36% | 1.18% | 0.43% | 0.13% |
| 95 | Ivana Jorovic | 1480 | 13.34% | 5.56% | 2.18% | 0.74% | 0.19% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 96 | Elina Svitolina | 1805 | 86.66% | 71.15% | 56.56% | 42.75% | 28.76% | 19.38% | 11.89% |
| 97 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1680 | 75.55% | 57.31% | 40.19% | 23.70% | 12.13% | 5.62% | 2.48% |
| 98 | Francesca Schiavone | 1484 | 24.45% | 12.32% | 5.34% | 1.73% | 0.47% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 99 | Duan Yingying | 1486 | 51.44% | 15.91% | 6.94% | 2.26% | 0.63% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 100 | Mariana Duque Marino | 1476 | 48.56% | 14.46% | 6.11% | 1.91% | 0.51% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 101 | Monica Niculescu | 1523 | 56.16% | 25.95% | 10.48% | 3.91% | 1.24% | 0.33% | 0.08% |
| 102 | Mona Barthel | 1480 | 43.84% | 17.60% | 6.16% | 1.96% | 0.53% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 103 | Aleksandra Krunic | 1532 | 45.41% | 24.51% | 10.18% | 3.92% | 1.28% | 0.36% | 0.09% |
| 104 | Anett Kontaveit | 1564 | 54.59% | 31.93% | 14.60% | 6.25% | 2.28% | 0.72% | 0.21% |
| 105 | Dominika Cibulkova | 1652 | 67.50% | 40.86% | 22.72% | 13.48% | 6.41% | 2.73% | 1.10% |
| 106 | Kaia Kanepi | 1525 | 32.50% | 13.80% | 5.28% | 2.23% | 0.71% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 107 | Samantha Stosur | 1584 | 51.87% | 23.97% | 11.08% | 5.56% | 2.17% | 0.73% | 0.23% |
| 108 | Monica Puig | 1571 | 48.13% | 21.37% | 9.49% | 4.60% | 1.72% | 0.55% | 0.17% |
| 109 | Carla Suarez Navarro | 1601 | 67.12% | 31.01% | 15.51% | 8.14% | 3.34% | 1.20% | 0.41% |
| 110 | Magdalena Frech | 1477 | 32.88% | 9.91% | 3.29% | 1.18% | 0.32% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 111 | Timea Babos | 1524 | 29.90% | 13.42% | 5.27% | 2.22% | 0.71% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 112 | Coco Vandeweghe | 1672 | 70.10% | 45.65% | 27.36% | 16.94% | 8.50% | 3.84% | 1.66% |
| 113 | Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | 1675 | 75.34% | 54.68% | 36.83% | 18.33% | 10.69% | 4.88% | 2.12% |
| 114 | Kateryna Kozlova | 1481 | 24.66% | 11.45% | 4.67% | 1.27% | 0.41% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 115 | Viktorija Golubic | 1513 | 52.16% | 18.12% | 8.19% | 2.50% | 0.91% | 0.23% | 0.06% |
| 116 | Kateryna Bondarenko | 1498 | 47.84% | 15.75% | 6.79% | 1.96% | 0.68% | 0.16% | 0.04% |
| 117 | Kirsten Flipkens | 1521 | 48.27% | 21.87% | 8.75% | 2.75% | 1.03% | 0.27% | 0.07% |
| 118 | Alison Riske | 1533 | 51.73% | 24.30% | 10.10% | 3.31% | 1.29% | 0.36% | 0.09% |
| 119 | Taylor Townsend | 1466 | 32.12% | 13.26% | 4.39% | 1.13% | 0.34% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 120 | Magdalena Rybarikova | 1596 | 67.88% | 40.57% | 20.29% | 8.12% | 3.85% | 1.36% | 0.45% |
| 121 | Kiki Bertens | 1541 | 44.70% | 26.38% | 8.03% | 3.50% | 1.40% | 0.40% | 0.11% |
| 122 | Catherine Bellis | 1578 | 55.30% | 35.42% | 12.21% | 5.94% | 2.67% | 0.89% | 0.28% |
| 123 | Nicole Gibbs | 1463 | 46.12% | 16.71% | 3.81% | 1.28% | 0.38% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 124 | Viktoriya Tomova | 1490 | 53.88% | 21.49% | 5.44% | 2.01% | 0.67% | 0.16% | 0.03% |
| 125 | Jana Fett | 1498 | 56.02% | 11.82% | 5.37% | 2.04% | 0.70% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 126 | Misa Eguchi | 1456 | 43.98% | 7.74% | 3.07% | 1.00% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 127 | Mihaela Buzarnescu | 1545 | 19.62% | 11.63% | 6.06% | 2.68% | 1.08% | 0.32% | 0.09% |
| 128 | Caroline Wozniacki | 1790 | 80.38% | 68.80% | 56.00% | 42.20% | 30.66% | 18.72% | 11.11% |
