Friday, 12 January 2018

2018 Australian Open Predictions - Women's

The 1st Grand Slam of the season is starting soon, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Women's bracket will turn out. After the jump I present a table for percentages for all 128 players and how they will do.

Australian Open logo. © Australian Open


But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
  • Elina Svitolina is the favourite to win the title, with an 11.89% chance to win. Simona Halep is 2nd with 11.38%, Caroline Wozniacki 3rd with 11.11% and Karolina Pliskova 4th with 6.58%
  • Duan Yingying and Mariana Duque Marino have a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have them as the 92nd and 107th best players here, but they're the 70th and 85th most likely winners.
  • On the other hand, Varvara Lepchenko currently has the toughest draw, as she's the 89th most likely winner, but she's the 64th highest ranked player
  • The toughest 1st round draw went to Mihaela Buzarnescu, as she's the 123rd most likely player to progress to round 2, but she's ranked 49th of the competitors. 
  • Ekaterina Alexandrova got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's the 54th most likely player to advance to round 2, while she's the 104th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter. (The table will be updated with my latest rankings when qualifiers are placed)


# Name ELO R1 % R2 % R3 % R4 % R5 % R6 % R7 %
1 Simona Halep 1809 87.43% 75.11% 53.11% 40.79% 27.28% 18.12% 11.38%
2 Destanee Aiava 1472 12.57% 5.88% 1.74% 0.59% 0.15% 0.03% 0.01%
3 Eugenie Bouchard 1477 45.41% 8.01% 2.42% 0.83% 0.21% 0.05% 0.01%
4 Oceane Dodin 1509 54.59% 11.00% 3.72% 1.43% 0.41% 0.11% 0.03%
5 Lauren Davis 1492 60.77% 16.36% 3.75% 1.37% 0.36% 0.09% 0.02%
6 Jana Cepelova 1416 39.23% 7.74% 1.31% 0.36% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
7 Andrea Petkovic 1478 19.53% 10.20% 2.22% 0.77% 0.19% 0.05% 0.01%
8 Petra Kvitova 1724 80.47% 65.71% 31.73% 21.37% 11.95% 6.60% 3.40%
9 Ashleigh Barty 1685 66.74% 45.51% 32.09% 13.83% 7.00% 3.50% 1.62%
10 Aryna Sabalenka 1564 33.26% 17.30% 9.45% 2.72% 0.95% 0.32% 0.10%
11 Camila Giorgi 1588 65.58% 27.59% 15.99% 5.02% 1.90% 0.70% 0.24%
12 Anna Kalinskaya 1476 34.42% 9.61% 4.06% 0.83% 0.21% 0.05% 0.01%
13 Naomi Osaka 1553 61.99% 33.13% 13.63% 3.76% 1.26% 0.41% 0.12%
14 Kristina Kucova 1468 38.01% 15.80% 4.80% 0.95% 0.23% 0.05% 0.01%
15 Ons Jabeur 1454 34.29% 13.93% 4.00% 0.74% 0.17% 0.04% 0.01%
16 Elena Vesnina 1567 65.71% 37.14% 15.98% 4.65% 1.64% 0.56% 0.17%
17 Johanna Konta 1690 78.70% 59.78% 35.77% 19.05% 8.98% 4.54% 2.13%
18 Madison Brengle 1463 21.30% 9.85% 3.07% 0.79% 0.17% 0.04% 0.01%
19 Anna Blinkova 1460 42.71% 11.57% 3.56% 0.90% 0.19% 0.04% 0.01%
20 Margarita Gasparyan 1511 57.29% 18.80% 6.92% 2.13% 0.55% 0.15% 0.04%
21 Lara Arruabarrena 1491 54.31% 16.00% 5.58% 1.60% 0.38% 0.10% 0.02%
22 Richel Hogenkamp 1461 45.69% 11.98% 3.76% 0.96% 0.20% 0.05% 0.01%
23 Kristie Ahn 1482 22.28% 11.29% 3.82% 1.06% 0.24% 0.06% 0.01%
24 Barbora Strycova 1699 77.72% 60.73% 37.52% 20.42% 9.87% 5.12% 2.46%
25 Lucie Safarova 1627 71.29% 43.98% 18.84% 9.08% 3.54% 1.49% 0.57%
26 Ajla Tomljanovic 1469 28.71% 11.31% 2.84% 0.81% 0.18% 0.04% 0.01%
27 Sorana Cirstea 1559 54.73% 25.59% 8.87% 3.48% 1.08% 0.36% 0.11%
28 Zarina Diyas 1526 45.27% 19.13% 5.92% 2.08% 0.57% 0.17% 0.04%
29 Lizette Cabrera 1501 48.56% 11.54% 4.62% 1.49% 0.37% 0.10% 0.02%
30 Beatriz Haddad Maia 1511 51.44% 12.72% 5.27% 1.76% 0.45% 0.13% 0.03%
31 Veronica Cepede Royg 1485 16.71% 7.85% 2.98% 0.90% 0.21% 0.05% 0.01%
32 Karolina Pliskova 1764 83.29% 67.89% 50.66% 33.50% 19.06% 11.56% 6.58%
33 Garbine Muguruza 1728 78.79% 62.60% 41.15% 23.51% 14.43% 7.34% 3.82%
34 Jessika Ponchet 1500 21.21% 10.81% 3.82% 1.06% 0.34% 0.08% 0.02%
35 Hseih Su-Wei 1497 51.15% 13.81% 4.82% 1.32% 0.42% 0.10% 0.02%
36 Zhu Lin 1489 48.85% 12.78% 4.33% 1.15% 0.36% 0.08% 0.02%
37 Natalia Vikhlyantseva 1515 41.87% 14.31% 4.86% 1.43% 0.49% 0.12% 0.03%
38 Lesia Tsurenko 1572 58.13% 24.12% 9.86% 3.58% 1.47% 0.45% 0.14%
39 Kristyna Pliskova 1507 26.98% 11.91% 3.93% 1.12% 0.37% 0.09% 0.02%
40 Agnieszka Radwanska 1680 73.02% 49.66% 27.22% 13.78% 7.60% 3.37% 1.54%
41 Angelique Kerber 1702 74.80% 58.67% 31.23% 17.72% 10.28% 4.87% 2.36%
42 Anna-Lena Friedsam 1513 25.20% 13.88% 4.02% 1.29% 0.43% 0.11% 0.03%
43 Nao Hibino 1472 48.42% 13.00% 3.20% 0.88% 0.25% 0.05% 0.01%
44 Donna Vekic 1483 51.58% 14.46% 3.72% 1.07% 0.32% 0.07% 0.02%
45 Tatjana Maria 1440 15.32% 4.44% 1.26% 0.30% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
46 Maria Sharapova 1737 84.68% 57.83% 37.92% 23.26% 14.54% 7.58% 4.04%
47 Varvara Lepchenko 1514 32.50% 8.98% 3.32% 1.07% 0.36% 0.09% 0.02%
48 Anastasija Sevastova 1641 67.50% 28.75% 15.34% 7.45% 3.72% 1.46% 0.59%
49 Kristina Mladenovic 1529 55.73% 28.94% 11.09% 4.12% 1.23% 0.32% 0.09%
50 Ana Bogdan 1489 44.27% 20.45% 6.84% 2.21% 0.56% 0.12% 0.03%
51 Yulia Putintseva 1492 43.98% 20.78% 7.02% 2.29% 0.59% 0.13% 0.03%
52 Heather Watson 1534 56.02% 29.83% 11.61% 4.38% 1.33% 0.35% 0.10%
53 Polona Hercog 1458 47.27% 11.52% 4.83% 1.39% 0.31% 0.06% 0.01%
54 Ekaterina Alexandrova 1477 52.73% 13.90% 6.20% 1.92% 0.46% 0.10% 0.02%
55 Wang Qiang 1556 29.66% 18.51% 10.35% 4.19% 1.39% 0.40% 0.12%
56 Madison Keys 1706 70.34% 56.08% 42.05% 25.23% 13.38% 6.41% 3.14%
57 Mirjana Lucic-Baroni 1538 47.99% 24.57% 8.67% 3.69% 1.14% 0.31% 0.09%
58 Shelby Rogers 1552 52.01% 27.67% 10.23% 4.54% 1.48% 0.42% 0.12%
59 Christina McHale 1501 42.85% 18.71% 5.81% 2.19% 0.59% 0.14% 0.03%
60 Aliaksandra Sasnovich 1551 57.15% 29.04% 10.71% 4.74% 1.54% 0.44% 0.13%
61 Kurumi Nara 1462 42.99% 9.36% 3.67% 1.21% 0.28% 0.05% 0.01%
62 Marketa Vondrousova 1511 57.01% 15.22% 7.01% 2.73% 0.76% 0.18% 0.05%
63 Carina Witthoft 1556 25.53% 15.15% 7.95% 3.57% 1.18% 0.34% 0.10%
64 Caroline Garcia 1742 74.47% 60.27% 45.96% 31.60% 18.32% 9.67% 5.22%
65 Venus Williams 1737 78.79% 63.19% 43.99% 26.73% 14.93% 8.79% 4.58%
66 Belinda Bencic 1509 21.21% 11.09% 4.40% 1.35% 0.37% 0.11% 0.03%
67 Luksika Kumkhum 1463 42.57% 9.66% 3.27% 0.84% 0.19% 0.05% 0.01%
68 Johanna Larsson 1515 57.43% 16.05% 6.50% 2.04% 0.58% 0.18% 0.04%
69 Alison Van Uytvanck 1462 46.55% 13.13% 3.57% 0.91% 0.21% 0.05% 0.01%
70 Petra Martic 1486 53.45% 16.58% 4.93% 1.38% 0.35% 0.10% 0.02%
71 Irina-Camelia Begu 1561 35.60% 22.12% 8.50% 3.15% 1.06% 0.38% 0.11%
72 Ekaterina Makarova 1664 64.40% 48.17% 24.83% 12.64% 5.86% 2.88% 1.21%
73 Daria Gavrilova 1660 78.11% 46.63% 23.46% 12.04% 5.52% 2.69% 1.12%
74 Irina Falconi 1439 21.89% 6.59% 1.56% 0.38% 0.08% 0.02% 0.00%
75 Viktoria Kuzmova 1501 32.12% 11.31% 3.41% 1.06% 0.29% 0.08% 0.02%
76 Elise Mertens 1631 67.88% 35.47% 16.47% 7.82% 3.29% 1.48% 0.56%
77 Alize Cornet 1588 62.40% 22.90% 10.48% 4.38% 1.61% 0.63% 0.20%
78 Wang Xinyu 1500 37.60% 9.98% 3.41% 1.06% 0.28% 0.08% 0.02%
79 Sofia Kenin 1515 21.99% 9.75% 3.51% 1.15% 0.33% 0.10% 0.02%
80 Julia Gorges 1735 78.01% 57.37% 37.70% 23.07% 12.83% 7.52% 3.90%
81 Sloane Stephens 1669 64.54% 48.17% 30.34% 13.80% 6.80% 3.39% 1.45%
82 Zhang Shuai 1565 35.46% 21.91% 10.77% 3.55% 1.26% 0.46% 0.14%
83 Denisa Allertova 1480 49.57% 14.74% 5.58% 1.35% 0.35% 0.09% 0.02%
84 Pauline Parmentier 1483 50.43% 15.18% 5.80% 1.42% 0.37% 0.10% 0.02%
85 Jennifer Brady 1489 49.86% 17.52% 6.39% 1.60% 0.43% 0.12% 0.03%
86 Magda Linette 1490 50.14% 17.68% 6.48% 1.63% 0.43% 0.12% 0.03%
87 Anna Karolina Schmiedlova 1449 24.13% 10.67% 3.37% 0.72% 0.16% 0.04% 0.01%
88 Daria Kasatkina 1648 75.87% 54.13% 31.28% 13.41% 6.22% 2.93% 1.17%
89 Peng Shuai 1637 68.75% 49.27% 18.86% 10.38% 4.66% 2.12% 0.82%
90 Marta Kostyuk 1500 31.25% 16.72% 3.96% 1.45% 0.40% 0.12% 0.03%
91 Jaimee Fourlis 1492 55.30% 19.95% 4.58% 1.63% 0.44% 0.12% 0.03%
92 Olivia Rogowska 1455 44.70% 14.06% 2.78% 0.86% 0.20% 0.05% 0.01%
93 Maria Sakkari 1505 41.73% 8.44% 3.59% 1.34% 0.38% 0.11% 0.03%
94 Katerina Siniakova 1563 58.27% 14.84% 7.49% 3.36% 1.18% 0.43% 0.13%
95 Ivana Jorovic 1480 13.34% 5.56% 2.18% 0.74% 0.19% 0.05% 0.01%
96 Elina Svitolina 1805 86.66% 71.15% 56.56% 42.75% 28.76% 19.38% 11.89%
97 Jelena Ostapenko 1680 75.55% 57.31% 40.19% 23.70% 12.13% 5.62% 2.48%
98 Francesca Schiavone 1484 24.45% 12.32% 5.34% 1.73% 0.47% 0.11% 0.02%
99 Duan Yingying 1486 51.44% 15.91% 6.94% 2.26% 0.63% 0.14% 0.03%
100 Mariana Duque Marino 1476 48.56% 14.46% 6.11% 1.91% 0.51% 0.11% 0.02%
101 Monica Niculescu 1523 56.16% 25.95% 10.48% 3.91% 1.24% 0.33% 0.08%
102 Mona Barthel 1480 43.84% 17.60% 6.16% 1.96% 0.53% 0.12% 0.02%
103 Aleksandra Krunic 1532 45.41% 24.51% 10.18% 3.92% 1.28% 0.36% 0.09%
104 Anett Kontaveit 1564 54.59% 31.93% 14.60% 6.25% 2.28% 0.72% 0.21%
105 Dominika Cibulkova 1652 67.50% 40.86% 22.72% 13.48% 6.41% 2.73% 1.10%
106 Kaia Kanepi 1525 32.50% 13.80% 5.28% 2.23% 0.71% 0.19% 0.05%
107 Samantha Stosur 1584 51.87% 23.97% 11.08% 5.56% 2.17% 0.73% 0.23%
108 Monica Puig 1571 48.13% 21.37% 9.49% 4.60% 1.72% 0.55% 0.17%
109 Carla Suarez Navarro 1601 67.12% 31.01% 15.51% 8.14% 3.34% 1.20% 0.41%
110 Magdalena Frech 1477 32.88% 9.91% 3.29% 1.18% 0.32% 0.07% 0.01%
111 Timea Babos 1524 29.90% 13.42% 5.27% 2.22% 0.71% 0.19% 0.05%
112 Coco Vandeweghe 1672 70.10% 45.65% 27.36% 16.94% 8.50% 3.84% 1.66%
113 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 1675 75.34% 54.68% 36.83% 18.33% 10.69% 4.88% 2.12%
114 Kateryna Kozlova 1481 24.66% 11.45% 4.67% 1.27% 0.41% 0.09% 0.02%
115 Viktorija Golubic 1513 52.16% 18.12% 8.19% 2.50% 0.91% 0.23% 0.06%
116 Kateryna Bondarenko 1498 47.84% 15.75% 6.79% 1.96% 0.68% 0.16% 0.04%
117 Kirsten Flipkens 1521 48.27% 21.87% 8.75% 2.75% 1.03% 0.27% 0.07%
118 Alison Riske 1533 51.73% 24.30% 10.10% 3.31% 1.29% 0.36% 0.09%
119 Taylor Townsend 1466 32.12% 13.26% 4.39% 1.13% 0.34% 0.07% 0.01%
120 Magdalena Rybarikova 1596 67.88% 40.57% 20.29% 8.12% 3.85% 1.36% 0.45%
121 Kiki Bertens 1541 44.70% 26.38% 8.03% 3.50% 1.40% 0.40% 0.11%
122 Catherine Bellis 1578 55.30% 35.42% 12.21% 5.94% 2.67% 0.89% 0.28%
123 Nicole Gibbs 1463 46.12% 16.71% 3.81% 1.28% 0.38% 0.08% 0.02%
124 Viktoriya Tomova 1490 53.88% 21.49% 5.44% 2.01% 0.67% 0.16% 0.03%
125 Jana Fett 1498 56.02% 11.82% 5.37% 2.04% 0.70% 0.17% 0.04%
126 Misa Eguchi 1456 43.98% 7.74% 3.07% 1.00% 0.29% 0.06% 0.01%
127 Mihaela Buzarnescu 1545 19.62% 11.63% 6.06% 2.68% 1.08% 0.32% 0.09%
128 Caroline Wozniacki 1790 80.38% 68.80% 56.00% 42.20% 30.66% 18.72% 11.11%

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