2018 Australian Open Week 2 Predictions - Men's

The 2nd week of the Australian Open is starting up in a few hours time, so it's time for me to update the predictions I made last week, with some new predictions for the rest of the tournament.

Australian Open logo. © Australian Open

• Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, all 4 are still in!
• Dustin Brown had the easiest overall draw at the start of the tournament, but lost in the 1st round to Joao Sousa. Donald Young, who had the toughest overall draw, lost as expected to Novak Djokovic in the 1st round.
• Mackenzie Mcdonald had the easiest 1st round draw, and won his match against Elias Ymer before losing in round 2. The player who had the toughest 1st round draw, Fernando Verdasco, managed to win his match against Roberto Bautista Agut before losing his next match.

But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like

• Roger Federer the favourite for the title, with a 33.78% chance of winning the whole thing, with Novak Djokovic 2nd at 26.07%. The 3rd most likely winner is Rafael Nadal with 21.73%, and 4th is Grigor Dimitrov with 6.09%.
• Kyle Edmund has the easiest draw to the title relative to his ranking, as he's the 10th most likely player to win the title, but is the 12th highest ranked player in the tournament. He also has the easiest 4th round match, as he's the 6th most likely to make it to the quarter finals.
• On the other hand, 5 player are tied with the toughest draws relative to their ranking. Schwartzman (11th), Carreno Busta (12th), Kyrgios (6th), Berdych (8th) and Fucsovics (16th) have draws 1 place tougher than would be expected in a fair draw.
• As for the next match, it's Nick Kyrgios who has the toughest draw. He is the 10th most likely to advance, but is the 5th highest ranked player competing.

Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.

#	Name	ELO	R4 %	R5 %	R6 %	R7 %
1	Rafael Nadal	1922	82.72%	62.73%	45.87%	21.73%
2	Diego Schwartzman	1650	17.28%	7.00%	2.65%	0.46%
3	Pablo Carreno Busta	1635	32.88%	7.09%	2.55%	0.41%
4	Marin Cilic	1759	67.12%	23.18%	12.18%	3.32%
5	Grigor Dimitrov	1804	56.30%	42.60%	18.87%	6.09%
6	Nick Kyrgios	1760	43.70%	30.91%	11.96%	3.27%
7	Kyle Edmund	1633	59.80%	17.65%	4.31%	0.69%
8	Andreas Seppi	1564	40.20%	8.84%	1.61%	0.19%
9	Dominic Thiem	1704	76.29%	18.71%	4.54%	1.54%
10	Tennys Sandgren	1501	23.71%	2.42%	0.24%	0.04%
11	Novak Djokovic	1955	87.24%	73.13%	39.34%	26.07%
12	Chung Hyeon	1621	12.76%	5.74%	1.00%	0.25%
13	Fabio Fognini	1688	44.41%	8.45%	2.29%	0.73%
14	Tomas Berdych	1727	55.59%	12.37%	3.85%	1.41%
15	Marton Fucsovics	1508	6.10%	1.46%	0.19%	0.03%
16	Roger Federer	1983	93.90%	77.72%	48.55%	33.78%