Saturday, 20 January 2018

2018 Australian Open Week 2 Predictions - Men's

The 2nd week of the Australian Open is starting up in a few hours time, so it's time for me to update the predictions I made last week, with some new predictions for the rest of the tournament.

Australian Open logo. © Australian Open
  • Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, all 4 are still in!
  • Dustin Brown had the easiest overall draw at the start of the tournament, but lost in the 1st round to Joao Sousa. Donald Young, who had the toughest overall draw, lost as expected to Novak Djokovic in the 1st round.
  • Mackenzie Mcdonald had the easiest 1st round draw, and won his match against Elias Ymer before losing in round 2. The player who had the toughest 1st round draw, Fernando Verdasco, managed to win his match against Roberto Bautista Agut before losing his next match.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
  • Roger Federer the favourite for the title, with a 33.78% chance of winning the whole thing, with Novak Djokovic 2nd at 26.07%. The 3rd most likely winner is Rafael Nadal with 21073%, and 4th is Grigor Dimitrov with 6.09%.
  • Kyle Edmund has the easiest draw to the title relative to his ranking, as he's the 10th most likely player to win the title, but is the 12th highest ranked player in the tournament. He also has the easiest 4th round match, as he's the 6th most likely to make it to the quarter finals.
  • On the other hand, 5 player are tied with the toughest draws relative to their ranking. Schwartzman (11th), Carreno Busta (12th), Kyrgios (6th), Berdych (8th) and Fucsovics (16th) have draws 1 place tougher than would be expected in a fair draw.
  • As for the next match, it's Nick Kyrgios who has the toughest draw. He is the 10th most likely to advance, but is the 5th highest ranked player competing.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.


#NameELOR4 %R5 %R6 %R7 %
1Rafael Nadal192282.72%62.73%45.87%21.73%
2Diego Schwartzman165017.28%7.00%2.65%0.46%
3Pablo Carreno Busta163532.88%7.09%2.55%0.41%
4Marin Cilic175967.12%23.18%12.18%3.32%
5Grigor Dimitrov180456.30%42.60%18.87%6.09%
6Nick Kyrgios176043.70%30.91%11.96%3.27%
7Kyle Edmund163359.80%17.65%4.31%0.69%
8Andreas Seppi156440.20%8.84%1.61%0.19%
9Dominic Thiem170476.29%18.71%4.54%1.54%
10Tennys Sandgren150123.71%2.42%0.24%0.04%
11Novak Djokovic195587.24%73.13%39.34%26.07%
12Chung Hyeon162112.76%5.74%1.00%0.25%
13Fabio Fognini168844.41%8.45%2.29%0.73%
14Tomas Berdych172755.59%12.37%3.85%1.41%
15Marton Fucsovics15086.10%1.46%0.19%0.03%
16Roger Federer198393.90%77.72%48.55%33.78%

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