Saturday, 20 January 2018

2018 Australian Open Week 2 Predictions - Women's

The 2nd week of the Australian Open is starting up in a few hours time, so it's time for me to update the predictions I made last week, with some new predictions for the rest of the tournament.

Australian Open logo. © Australian Open

  • Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, all of them are still in!
  • Whilst Duan Yingying and Mariana Duque Marino had the easiest overall draws, this didn't help them to victory, as after Duan beat Duque Marino, she then lost to Jelena Ostapenko in round 2. Varvara Lepchenko had the toughest draw and lost her opening match to Anastasij Sevastova.
  • After receiving the easiest 1st round draw, Ekaterina Alexandrova won her opening match but then lost to Madison Keys. Mihaela Buzarnescu, who had the toughst opening match, lost as expected to Caroline Wozniacki.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like.
  • Elina Svitolina is still the favourite, and has a 23.23% chance of winning the title, Caroline Wozniacki is 2nd at 17.77%, Simona Halep is 3rd at 17.28%, and 4th is Karolina Pliskova with 9.04%.
  • Petra Martic, along with Svitolina and Wozniacki have the easiest draws to the title relative to their ranking, as they're the 14th, 1st and 2nd most likely players to win, but are the 15th, 2nd and 3rd highest ranked players remaining.
  • Elise Mertens has the easiest round 4 match, as she's the 5th most likely player to make it to the quarter finals, but is the 9th highest ranked competitior.
  • Simona Halep has the toughest draw relative to her ranking, as she is the 3rd most likely winner, but is the 1st highest ranked player in the tournament.
  • As for the next match, Barbora Strycova and Madison Keys have the toughest round 4 matches, as they are is the 11th and 10th most likely players to win their next match, but are the 8th and 9th highest ranked players.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.


#NameELOR4 %R5 %R6 %R7 %
1Simona Halep181879.27%47.14%29.76%17.28%
2Naomi Osaka158520.73%5.79%1.82%0.51%
3Barbora Strycova171340.89%17.19%8.35%3.67%
4Karolina Pliskova177759.11%29.88%17.20%9.04%
5Hseih Su-Wei153825.64%6.11%1.28%0.30%
6Angelique Kerber172374.36%35.34%15.11%6.84%
7Madison Keys172144.98%25.18%10.69%4.81%
8Caroline Garcia175655.02%33.37%15.79%7.85%
9Petra Martic151630.75%6.29%1.58%0.32%
10Elise Mertens165769.25%24.11%10.10%3.62%
11Denisa Allertova151214.88%5.38%1.33%0.26%
12Elina Svitolina181585.12%64.23%40.29%23.23%
13Anett Kontaveit159445.69%13.39%4.17%1.17%
14Carla Suarez Navarro162454.31%17.82%6.16%1.95%
15Magdalena Rybarikova161825.86%13.21%4.48%1.39%
16Caroline Wozniacki180174.14%55.57%31.89%17.77%