Friday, 27 January 2017

2017 Australian Open Final Update

It's the final of the Australian Open, and we're about to crown the winners of the 1st Grand Slam of the year! But before the matches start, let's take a look at the ELO ratings for the finalists, and how the semi finals affected them.

The current leaders in the Big Gainer of the tournament awards are Rafael Nadal (+43) and Mirjana Lucic-Baroni (+57). Rafael is competing in the final, and will win the award if he defeats Roger Federer, otherwise the it will go to Mischa Zverev. In the Women's race, Mirjana lost her semi final, but she can still win the award if Serena Williams takes the title, otherwise Venus Williams will win it on a tiebreaker.

But before the rankings, some stats I calculated for the top 150 players after the jump:




Men's Rank± ELO
1-1079
11-2056
21-50-1
51-100-68
101-150-39

As Federer and Nadal are both in my top 10, these are the final stats for how these groups of players performed. The clear winners are the top 10 players, with Federer and Nadal easily countering the early losses for Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. The losers are the 51-100 group, with most of them losing ELO rating points, the major exception being Andreas Seppi.

Women's Rank± ELO
1-1011
11-2047
21-508
51-100-80
101-15056

Unlike the Men's above, this will change after the Women's final, as Venus Williams is outside of the top 10. Even accounting for the possible changes, the 11-20 group (primarily thanks to Venus) has performed strongly this tournament despite early losses by Monica Niculescu and Daria Kasatkina, but so has the 101-150 group, led by Sorana Cirstea and Mona Barthel. On the other hand, the 51-100 group disappointed here, with the exception of Big Gainer contender Mirjana Lucic-Baroni.

Now, my final ELO ratings and estimated percentage chances of winning:

Men's rankings

#NameELOWin %
1Roger Federer187659%
2Rafael Nadal181641%

Women's rankings

#NameELOWin %
1Serena Williams188075%
2Venus Williams168725%

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