The US Open is starting tomorrow, and here are my predictions for the Men's draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table for you to view.
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- Rafael Nadal is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 34.06% chance of winning the whole thing, with Novak Djokovic next at 23.49%. The 3rd most likely is Roger Federer with 21.36% and Dominic Thiem 4th with 4.66%
- Dominic Thiem has the easiest overall draw, as he is 1.05 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Daniil Medvedev has a tough draw. He is 1.05 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected
- The toughest 1st round draw went to John Millman, as he's 42.14 percentage points less likely to win than a player of his rank is expected to win. Paolo Lorenzi got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's 46.34 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than his ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
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| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Novak Djokovic |
1991 |
93.73% |
83.55% |
78.60% |
70.17% |
57.12% |
37.71% |
23.49% |
| 2 |
Roberto Carballes Baena |
1521 |
6.27% |
2.26% |
1.19% |
0.45% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 3 |
Sam Querrey |
1652 |
61.12% |
9.75% |
6.82% |
3.80% |
1.59% |
0.43% |
0.10% |
| 4 |
Juan Ignacio Londero |
1574 |
38.88% |
4.43% |
2.65% |
1.19% |
0.38% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 5 |
Denis Kudla |
1427 |
45.44% |
16.11% |
1.19% |
0.32% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 6 |
Janko Tipsarevic |
1459 |
54.56% |
21.65% |
1.86% |
0.57% |
0.12% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 7 |
Steve Darcis |
1477 |
37.39% |
20.42% |
1.90% |
0.62% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 8 |
Dusan Lajovic |
1566 |
62.61% |
41.82% |
5.78% |
2.55% |
0.80% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
| 9 |
Stan Wawrinka |
1695 |
76.68% |
47.42% |
34.71% |
9.17% |
4.34% |
1.36% |
0.38% |
| 10 |
Jannik Sinner |
1488 |
23.32% |
7.72% |
3.58% |
0.45% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 11 |
Hubert Hurkacz |
1626 |
55.03% |
25.85% |
16.82% |
3.54% |
1.36% |
0.34% |
0.07% |
| 12 |
Jeremy Chardy |
1591 |
44.97% |
19.01% |
11.51% |
2.14% |
0.73% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
| 13 |
Laslo Djere |
1533 |
43.80% |
29.36% |
10.33% |
1.54% |
0.43% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 14 |
Miomir Kecmanovic |
1576 |
56.20% |
40.62% |
16.61% |
2.92% |
0.95% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
| 15 |
Zachary Svajda* (new) |
1400 |
47.38% |
13.68% |
2.81% |
0.24% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 16 |
Paolo Lorenzi |
1418 |
52.62% |
16.34% |
3.63% |
0.34% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 17 |
Fabio Fognini |
1693 |
68.70% |
52.29% |
31.49% |
14.25% |
4.09% |
1.27% |
0.36% |
| 18 |
Reilly Opelka |
1556 |
31.30% |
18.54% |
7.64% |
2.23% |
0.40% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 19 |
Dominik Kopfer |
1486 |
48.48% |
13.84% |
4.44% |
0.99% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 20 |
Jaume Munar |
1496 |
51.52% |
15.33% |
5.12% |
1.19% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 21 |
Tomas Berdych |
1659 |
72.44% |
41.66% |
23.62% |
9.69% |
2.49% |
0.69% |
0.17% |
| 22 |
Jenson Brooksby |
1491 |
27.56% |
9.41% |
3.26% |
0.74% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 23 |
Marton Fucsovics |
1568 |
40.98% |
17.95% |
8.00% |
2.44% |
0.46% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 24 |
Nikoloz Basilashvili |
1632 |
59.02% |
30.98% |
16.44% |
6.21% |
1.46% |
0.37% |
0.08% |
| 25 |
Taylor Fritz |
1645 |
58.33% |
36.48% |
13.40% |
6.99% |
1.72% |
0.45% |
0.11% |
| 26 |
Feliciano Lopez |
1587 |
41.67% |
22.72% |
6.91% |
3.05% |
0.61% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
| 27 |
Yoshihito Nishioka |
1587 |
61.85% |
27.92% |
8.50% |
3.75% |
0.75% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
| 28 |
Marcos Giron |
1503 |
38.15% |
12.87% |
2.90% |
0.96% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 29 |
Kwon Soon-Woo |
1492 |
51.03% |
9.00% |
3.19% |
1.02% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 30 |
Hugo Dellien |
1485 |
48.97% |
8.39% |
2.90% |
0.90% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 31 |
Prajnesh Gunneswaran |
1450 |
10.61% |
4.72% |
1.43% |
0.39% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 32 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1820 |
89.39% |
77.89% |
60.77% |
45.22% |
18.87% |
8.60% |
3.61% |
| 33 |
Roger Federer |
1975 |
94.40% |
88.46% |
79.85% |
68.26% |
57.49% |
35.36% |
21.36% |
| 34 |
Sumit Nagal |
1484 |
5.60% |
2.62% |
0.93% |
0.27% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 35 |
Elliot Benchetrit |
1497 |
47.76% |
4.10% |
1.54% |
0.46% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 36 |
Damir Dzumhur |
1513 |
52.24% |
4.82% |
1.90% |
0.61% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 37 |
Adrian Mannarino |
1581 |
53.12% |
25.04% |
3.85% |
1.55% |
0.59% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 38 |
Daniel Evans |
1559 |
46.88% |
20.64% |
2.92% |
1.10% |
0.39% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 39 |
Philipp Kohlschreiber |
1596 |
48.65% |
26.09% |
4.25% |
1.80% |
0.72% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 40 |
Lucas Pouille |
1605 |
51.35% |
28.23% |
4.76% |
2.08% |
0.85% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
| 41 |
Guido Pella |
1657 |
56.43% |
40.53% |
20.24% |
4.78% |
2.30% |
0.58% |
0.14% |
| 42 |
Pablo Carreno Busta |
1612 |
43.57% |
28.89% |
12.74% |
2.56% |
1.08% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
| 43 |
Ricardas Berankis |
1471 |
44.05% |
12.23% |
3.35% |
0.39% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 44 |
Jiri Vesely |
1512 |
55.95% |
18.34% |
5.86% |
0.80% |
0.24% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 45 |
Gregoire Barrere |
1446 |
35.14% |
7.60% |
2.31% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 46 |
Cameron Norrie |
1553 |
64.86% |
21.06% |
9.29% |
1.49% |
0.51% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 47 |
Corentin Moutet |
1442 |
15.84% |
6.30% |
1.89% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 48 |
David Goffin |
1732 |
84.16% |
65.05% |
44.32% |
13.42% |
7.82% |
2.56% |
0.82% |
| 49 |
Borna Coric |
1663 |
77.86% |
48.97% |
26.94% |
13.49% |
3.53% |
0.91% |
0.23% |
| 50 |
Evgeny Donskoy |
1445 |
22.14% |
7.32% |
1.97% |
0.48% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 51 |
Andreas Seppi |
1503 |
35.55% |
12.46% |
4.19% |
1.27% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 52 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1607 |
64.45% |
31.25% |
14.75% |
6.30% |
1.34% |
0.28% |
0.06% |
| 53 |
Jack Sock |
1504 |
41.34% |
12.03% |
4.29% |
1.30% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 54 |
Pablo Cuevas |
1565 |
58.66% |
21.47% |
9.38% |
3.52% |
0.64% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 55 |
Nicolas Jarry |
1582 |
33.32% |
18.67% |
8.60% |
3.41% |
0.66% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
| 56 |
Milos Raonic |
1703 |
66.68% |
47.84% |
29.90% |
16.51% |
4.93% |
1.46% |
0.43% |
| 57 |
Christian Garin |
1574 |
67.93% |
32.76% |
12.26% |
5.13% |
0.96% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
| 58 |
Christopher Eubanks |
1443 |
32.07% |
9.80% |
2.35% |
0.61% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 59 |
Pierre-Hugues Herbert |
1576 |
47.11% |
26.37% |
9.92% |
4.17% |
0.79% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 60 |
Alex De Minaur |
1596 |
52.89% |
31.06% |
12.41% |
5.56% |
1.13% |
0.23% |
0.04% |
| 61 |
Thiago Monteiro |
1433 |
52.72% |
9.67% |
3.05% |
0.75% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 62 |
Bradley Klahn |
1414 |
47.28% |
7.98% |
2.34% |
0.53% |
0.05% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 63 |
Marco Trungelliti |
1492 |
17.81% |
10.64% |
4.18% |
1.31% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 64 |
Kei Nishikori |
1758 |
82.19% |
71.71% |
53.49% |
35.66% |
12.69% |
4.51% |
1.57% |
| 65 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1730 |
64.10% |
48.75% |
30.47% |
17.50% |
9.15% |
2.81% |
0.77% |
| 66 |
Andrey Rublev |
1629 |
35.90% |
23.06% |
11.35% |
4.98% |
1.96% |
0.43% |
0.08% |
| 67 |
Bjorn Fratangelo |
1453 |
34.72% |
7.09% |
1.93% |
0.45% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 68 |
Gilles Simon |
1563 |
65.28% |
21.10% |
8.53% |
3.02% |
0.95% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
| 69 |
Antoine Hoang |
1499 |
43.98% |
12.08% |
3.65% |
1.02% |
0.25% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 70 |
Leonardo Mayer |
1541 |
56.02% |
18.11% |
6.38% |
2.08% |
0.60% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 71 |
Steve Johnson |
1564 |
29.16% |
16.33% |
6.24% |
2.21% |
0.70% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 72 |
Nick Kyrgios |
1718 |
70.84% |
53.49% |
31.45% |
17.58% |
8.93% |
2.65% |
0.69% |
| 73 |
Matteo Berrettini |
1680 |
51.49% |
35.86% |
18.56% |
9.64% |
4.41% |
1.15% |
0.26% |
| 74 |
Richard Gasquet |
1669 |
48.51% |
33.17% |
16.73% |
8.45% |
3.75% |
0.94% |
0.20% |
| 75 |
Joao Sousa |
1544 |
52.56% |
16.82% |
5.86% |
1.99% |
0.58% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 76 |
Jordan Thompson |
1526 |
47.44% |
14.15% |
4.64% |
1.48% |
0.40% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 77 |
Alexei Popyrin |
1484 |
47.11% |
10.97% |
3.34% |
0.90% |
0.21% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 78 |
Federico Delbonis |
1504 |
52.89% |
13.36% |
4.39% |
1.28% |
0.32% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 79 |
Mikhail Kukushkin |
1521 |
20.92% |
11.25% |
3.93% |
1.23% |
0.33% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 80 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1752 |
79.08% |
64.42% |
42.56% |
26.20% |
14.44% |
4.75% |
1.41% |
| 81 |
Gael Monfils |
1693 |
62.69% |
47.67% |
30.54% |
14.05% |
7.09% |
1.93% |
0.46% |
| 82 |
Albert Ramos Vinolas |
1603 |
37.31% |
24.42% |
12.67% |
4.46% |
1.71% |
0.34% |
0.05% |
| 83 |
Ugo Humbert |
1517 |
58.93% |
18.15% |
7.27% |
1.89% |
0.53% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 84 |
Marius Copil |
1454 |
41.07% |
9.76% |
3.13% |
0.64% |
0.14% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 85 |
Henri Laaksonen |
1509 |
53.69% |
17.93% |
6.43% |
1.63% |
0.44% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 86 |
Marco Cecchinato |
1484 |
46.31% |
13.99% |
4.58% |
1.05% |
0.26% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 87 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1603 |
43.19% |
27.94% |
13.45% |
4.73% |
1.81% |
0.36% |
0.06% |
| 88 |
Felix Auger-Aliassime |
1650 |
56.81% |
40.14% |
21.92% |
8.94% |
3.99% |
0.94% |
0.19% |
| 89 |
Kyle Edmund |
1626 |
65.61% |
41.95% |
14.66% |
7.46% |
3.08% |
0.66% |
0.12% |
| 90 |
Pablo Andujar |
1513 |
34.39% |
16.65% |
3.97% |
1.42% |
0.39% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 91 |
Lorenzo Sonego |
1557 |
62.32% |
28.55% |
7.97% |
3.31% |
1.08% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
| 92 |
Marcel Granollers |
1470 |
37.68% |
12.85% |
2.60% |
0.79% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 93 |
Alexander Bublik |
1494 |
59.37% |
10.77% |
4.29% |
1.43% |
0.37% |
0.05% |
0.00% |
| 94 |
Santiago Giraldo |
1428 |
40.63% |
5.56% |
1.75% |
0.45% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 95 |
Thomas Fabbiano |
1456 |
11.14% |
5.39% |
1.88% |
0.54% |
0.12% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 96 |
Dominic Thiem |
1817 |
88.86% |
78.27% |
62.87% |
47.19% |
31.63% |
12.61% |
4.66% |
| 97 |
Alexander Zverev |
1726 |
70.20% |
52.52% |
36.86% |
21.81% |
6.03% |
3.03% |
0.82% |
| 98 |
Radu Albot |
1577 |
29.80% |
16.72% |
8.52% |
3.31% |
0.54% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
| 99 |
Ivo Karlovic |
1471 |
36.25% |
8.57% |
3.15% |
0.83% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 100 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1570 |
63.75% |
22.20% |
11.07% |
4.19% |
0.66% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
| 101 |
Jozef Kovalik |
1455 |
40.43% |
12.61% |
3.32% |
0.81% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 102 |
Aljaz Bedene |
1523 |
59.57% |
23.60% |
8.02% |
2.57% |
0.33% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 103 |
Brayden Schnur |
1474 |
27.20% |
12.76% |
3.61% |
0.95% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 104 |
Benoit Paire |
1645 |
72.80% |
51.03% |
25.45% |
12.20% |
2.54% |
1.00% |
0.20% |
| 105 |
Diego Schwartzman |
1683 |
73.90% |
54.93% |
28.53% |
16.17% |
3.87% |
1.72% |
0.39% |
| 106 |
Robin Haase |
1502 |
26.10% |
13.24% |
3.77% |
1.24% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 107 |
Lloyd Harris |
1462 |
41.33% |
11.43% |
2.76% |
0.78% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 108 |
Egor Gerasimov |
1522 |
58.67% |
20.40% |
6.28% |
2.22% |
0.29% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 109 |
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga |
1686 |
74.96% |
40.33% |
24.65% |
14.05% |
3.39% |
1.52% |
0.35% |
| 110 |
Tennys Sandgren |
1495 |
25.04% |
7.42% |
2.68% |
0.86% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 111 |
Vasek Pospisil |
1455 |
19.50% |
5.23% |
1.63% |
0.45% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 112 |
Karen Khachanov |
1702 |
80.50% |
47.02% |
29.69% |
17.55% |
4.47% |
2.10% |
0.52% |
| 113 |
John Isner |
1680 |
78.37% |
44.90% |
25.50% |
5.47% |
2.85% |
1.25% |
0.28% |
| 114 |
Guillermo Garcia Lopez |
1457 |
21.63% |
5.95% |
1.64% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 115 |
Jan-Lennard Struff |
1665 |
64.47% |
34.85% |
19.06% |
3.87% |
1.94% |
0.81% |
0.17% |
| 116 |
Casper Ruud |
1561 |
35.53% |
14.30% |
5.79% |
0.81% |
0.29% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 117 |
Filip Krajinovic |
1624 |
71.82% |
33.93% |
15.95% |
2.81% |
1.25% |
0.46% |
0.08% |
| 118 |
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe |
1462 |
28.18% |
7.52% |
1.98% |
0.19% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 119 |
Martin Klizan |
1535 |
29.21% |
12.81% |
4.48% |
0.56% |
0.18% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 120 |
Marin Cilic |
1688 |
70.79% |
45.74% |
25.59% |
5.64% |
3.01% |
1.35% |
0.32% |
| 121 |
Fernando Verdasco |
1602 |
68.77% |
41.24% |
5.76% |
2.50% |
1.03% |
0.35% |
0.06% |
| 122 |
Tobias Kamke |
1465 |
31.23% |
12.82% |
1.04% |
0.27% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 123 |
Chung Hyeon |
1572 |
68.24% |
35.23% |
4.37% |
1.71% |
0.64% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
| 124 |
Ernesto Escobedo |
1439 |
31.76% |
10.71% |
0.77% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 125 |
Thanasi Kokkinakis |
1480 |
47.94% |
3.15% |
1.24% |
0.35% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 126 |
Ilya Ivashka |
1495 |
52.06% |
3.65% |
1.51% |
0.45% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 127 |
John Millman |
1526 |
5.62% |
3.12% |
1.43% |
0.48% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 128 |
Rafael Nadal |
2017 |
94.38% |
90.08% |
83.88% |
74.56% |
65.50% |
54.58% |
34.06% |
