The US Open is starting tomorrow, and here are my predictions for the Women's draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table for you to view.
 |
US Open Logo, © US Open
|
- Ashleigh Barty is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 14.66% chance of winning the whole thing, with Simona Halep next at 13.77%. The 3rd most likely is Karolina Pliskova with 9.98% and Serena Williams 4th with 8.59%
- Karolina Pliskova has the easiest overall draw, as she is 1.39 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Serena Williams has a tough draw. She is 1.39 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Maria Sharapova, as she's 43.21 percentage points less likely to win than a player of her rank is expected to win. Zhu Lin got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's 24.76 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than her ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Naomi Osaka |
1743 |
82.31% |
62.73% |
45.41% |
28.69% |
16.91% |
8.31% |
3.81% |
| 2 |
Anna Blinkova |
1475 |
17.69% |
7.26% |
2.68% |
0.76% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 3 |
Astra Sharma |
1504 |
41.39% |
10.83% |
4.40% |
1.39% |
0.39% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 4 |
Magda Linette |
1564 |
58.61% |
19.19% |
9.40% |
3.67% |
1.28% |
0.35% |
0.08% |
| 5 |
Anastasia Potapova |
1563 |
55.29% |
26.76% |
9.86% |
3.84% |
1.34% |
0.36% |
0.09% |
| 6 |
Cori Gauff |
1526 |
44.71% |
19.42% |
6.30% |
2.16% |
0.65% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 7 |
Timea Babos |
1424 |
24.36% |
8.07% |
1.76% |
0.40% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 8 |
Carla Suarez Navarro |
1621 |
75.64% |
45.76% |
20.20% |
9.43% |
3.99% |
1.33% |
0.40% |
| 9 |
Anett Kontaveit |
1694 |
79.14% |
56.76% |
33.16% |
18.65% |
9.76% |
4.16% |
1.64% |
| 10 |
Sara Sorribes Tormo |
1462 |
20.86% |
8.40% |
2.37% |
0.64% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 11 |
Ajla Tomljanovic |
1555 |
58.21% |
21.96% |
8.70% |
3.30% |
1.12% |
0.29% |
0.07% |
| 12 |
Marie Bouzkova |
1498 |
41.79% |
12.88% |
4.17% |
1.29% |
0.35% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 13 |
Alize Cornet |
1588 |
55.54% |
23.10% |
10.56% |
4.45% |
1.69% |
0.50% |
0.13% |
| 14 |
Jessica Pegula |
1549 |
44.46% |
16.32% |
6.62% |
2.46% |
0.82% |
0.21% |
0.05% |
| 15 |
Mandy Minella |
1441 |
18.80% |
6.06% |
1.67% |
0.41% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 16 |
Belinda Bencic |
1695 |
81.20% |
54.53% |
32.75% |
18.47% |
9.70% |
4.15% |
1.64% |
| 17 |
Aryna Sabalenka |
1672 |
45.18% |
29.89% |
17.30% |
8.82% |
4.49% |
1.78% |
0.65% |
| 18 |
Victoria Azarenka |
1705 |
54.82% |
38.50% |
23.98% |
13.29% |
7.37% |
3.25% |
1.33% |
| 19 |
Yulia Putintseva |
1593 |
67.75% |
24.69% |
11.67% |
4.75% |
1.91% |
0.58% |
0.16% |
| 20 |
Madison Brengle |
1464 |
32.25% |
6.92% |
2.13% |
0.55% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 21 |
Kaia Kanepi |
1564 |
60.83% |
24.56% |
9.34% |
3.46% |
1.26% |
0.34% |
0.08% |
| 22 |
Tatjana Maria |
1488 |
39.17% |
12.19% |
3.49% |
0.98% |
0.27% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 23 |
Richel Hogenkamp |
1425 |
18.62% |
6.50% |
1.43% |
0.31% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 24 |
Donna Vekic |
1681 |
81.38% |
56.75% |
30.65% |
15.99% |
8.34% |
3.41% |
1.29% |
| 25 |
Julia Gorges |
1643 |
71.09% |
47.19% |
21.11% |
10.34% |
4.85% |
1.75% |
0.58% |
| 26 |
Natalia Vikhlyantseva |
1487 |
28.91% |
12.92% |
3.40% |
0.98% |
0.27% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 27 |
Francesca Di Lorenzo |
1488 |
41.33% |
14.55% |
3.85% |
1.11% |
0.31% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 28 |
Veronika Kudermetova |
1549 |
58.67% |
25.34% |
8.40% |
3.05% |
1.05% |
0.27% |
0.06% |
| 29 |
Pauline Parmentier |
1474 |
35.29% |
7.69% |
2.78% |
0.76% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 30 |
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova |
1580 |
64.71% |
21.08% |
10.63% |
4.28% |
1.65% |
0.47% |
0.12% |
| 31 |
Paula Badosa |
1471 |
16.08% |
6.45% |
2.31% |
0.62% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 32 |
Kiki Bertens |
1758 |
83.92% |
64.78% |
47.51% |
30.70% |
19.19% |
9.83% |
4.71% |
| 33 |
Simona Halep |
1842 |
91.03% |
79.82% |
65.50% |
47.99% |
33.04% |
23.23% |
13.77% |
| 34 |
Nicole Gibbs |
1439 |
8.97% |
3.70% |
1.18% |
0.27% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 35 |
Taylor Townsend |
1486 |
46.04% |
7.12% |
2.69% |
0.75% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 36 |
Kateryna Kozlova |
1513 |
53.96% |
9.36% |
3.89% |
1.20% |
0.33% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 37 |
Sorana Cirstea |
1520 |
43.82% |
17.70% |
3.85% |
1.22% |
0.34% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 38 |
Katerina Siniakova |
1563 |
56.18% |
26.04% |
6.64% |
2.46% |
0.81% |
0.27% |
0.07% |
| 39 |
Aliona Bolsova |
1517 |
34.66% |
15.97% |
3.44% |
1.08% |
0.30% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 40 |
Barbora Strycova |
1627 |
65.34% |
40.29% |
12.81% |
5.83% |
2.38% |
0.99% |
0.31% |
| 41 |
Caroline Wozniacki |
1684 |
68.14% |
45.53% |
23.99% |
10.01% |
4.84% |
2.39% |
0.91% |
| 42 |
Wang Yafan |
1552 |
31.86% |
15.47% |
5.48% |
1.49% |
0.47% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 43 |
Danielle Collins |
1580 |
55.99% |
23.20% |
9.04% |
2.71% |
0.94% |
0.34% |
0.09% |
| 44 |
Polona Hercog |
1538 |
44.01% |
15.80% |
5.34% |
1.38% |
0.41% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| 45 |
Lesia Tsurenko |
1594 |
63.80% |
23.88% |
11.21% |
3.54% |
1.29% |
0.48% |
0.13% |
| 46 |
Kirsten Flipkens |
1496 |
36.20% |
9.57% |
3.24% |
0.71% |
0.18% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 47 |
Katie Volynets* (new) |
1400 |
13.16% |
3.81% |
0.88% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 48 |
Bianca Andreescu |
1728 |
86.84% |
62.74% |
40.83% |
19.24% |
10.44% |
5.81% |
2.54% |
| 49 |
Sloane Stephens |
1666 |
79.15% |
45.26% |
24.53% |
11.38% |
4.54% |
2.14% |
0.77% |
| 50 |
Anna Kalinskaya |
1435 |
20.85% |
5.68% |
1.40% |
0.29% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 51 |
Kristie Ahn |
1487 |
27.10% |
8.89% |
2.72% |
0.69% |
0.14% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 52 |
Svetlana Kuznetsova |
1659 |
72.90% |
40.18% |
21.38% |
9.72% |
3.79% |
1.75% |
0.61% |
| 53 |
Aleksandra Krunic |
1499 |
39.82% |
10.77% |
3.44% |
0.92% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 54 |
Jelena Ostapenko |
1571 |
60.18% |
21.53% |
8.84% |
3.05% |
0.88% |
0.30% |
0.08% |
| 55 |
Alison Riske |
1617 |
37.27% |
22.56% |
10.69% |
4.29% |
1.46% |
0.59% |
0.18% |
| 56 |
Garbine Muguruza |
1708 |
62.73% |
45.14% |
27.00% |
13.97% |
6.31% |
3.33% |
1.37% |
| 57 |
Elise Mertens |
1654 |
62.35% |
44.55% |
18.79% |
9.52% |
3.65% |
1.66% |
0.57% |
| 58 |
Jil Teichmann |
1566 |
37.65% |
22.66% |
7.22% |
2.79% |
0.79% |
0.27% |
0.07% |
| 59 |
Kristyna Pliskova |
1483 |
47.03% |
14.77% |
3.46% |
0.98% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 60 |
Diane Parry |
1504 |
52.97% |
18.01% |
4.57% |
1.41% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 61 |
Andrea Petkovic |
1517 |
44.59% |
9.99% |
4.10% |
1.33% |
0.31% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 62 |
Mihaela Buzarnescu |
1555 |
55.41% |
14.40% |
6.65% |
2.47% |
0.67% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
| 63 |
Denisa Allertova |
1498 |
15.39% |
6.81% |
2.62% |
0.79% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 64 |
Petra Kvitova |
1794 |
84.61% |
68.80% |
52.59% |
36.41% |
20.54% |
13.22% |
6.98% |
| 65 |
Elina Svitolina |
1753 |
82.99% |
50.24% |
36.16% |
20.91% |
11.54% |
5.58% |
2.89% |
| 66 |
Whitney Osuigwe |
1478 |
17.01% |
4.32% |
1.51% |
0.36% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 67 |
Zheng Saisai |
1538 |
25.83% |
7.38% |
3.18% |
0.96% |
0.27% |
0.06% |
0.02% |
| 68 |
Venus Williams |
1721 |
74.17% |
38.06% |
25.94% |
13.89% |
7.08% |
3.12% |
1.48% |
| 69 |
Monica Puig |
1587 |
55.11% |
27.18% |
8.97% |
3.23% |
1.10% |
0.31% |
0.09% |
| 70 |
Rebecca Peterson |
1551 |
44.89% |
19.91% |
5.74% |
1.83% |
0.55% |
0.13% |
0.04% |
| 71 |
Monica Niculescu |
1511 |
33.27% |
13.79% |
3.38% |
0.92% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 72 |
Dayana Yastremska |
1632 |
66.73% |
39.12% |
15.12% |
6.30% |
2.49% |
0.82% |
0.29% |
| 73 |
Sofia Kenin |
1729 |
73.13% |
57.78% |
32.91% |
18.55% |
9.65% |
4.36% |
2.11% |
| 74 |
Coco Vandeweghe |
1555 |
26.87% |
15.74% |
5.58% |
1.86% |
0.57% |
0.14% |
0.04% |
| 75 |
Magdalena Frech |
1405 |
32.24% |
5.74% |
1.18% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 76 |
Laura Siegemund |
1534 |
67.76% |
20.74% |
6.87% |
2.12% |
0.60% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 77 |
Zhu Lin |
1447 |
45.61% |
9.18% |
2.39% |
0.52% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 78 |
Wang Xinyu |
1478 |
54.39% |
12.38% |
3.63% |
0.89% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 79 |
Misaki Doi |
1418 |
13.01% |
5.65% |
1.31% |
0.25% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 80 |
Madison Keys |
1748 |
86.99% |
72.78% |
46.14% |
27.19% |
14.81% |
7.05% |
3.60% |
| 81 |
Johanna Konta |
1722 |
63.13% |
48.27% |
35.63% |
17.63% |
9.13% |
4.04% |
1.92% |
| 82 |
Daria Kasatkina |
1628 |
36.87% |
24.24% |
15.10% |
5.71% |
2.23% |
0.73% |
0.26% |
| 83 |
Margarita Gasparyan |
1552 |
66.67% |
21.16% |
10.95% |
3.19% |
0.95% |
0.23% |
0.06% |
| 84 |
Priscilla Hon |
1432 |
33.33% |
6.33% |
2.22% |
0.40% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 85 |
Ekaterina Alexandrova |
1569 |
55.16% |
31.76% |
12.61% |
3.90% |
1.24% |
0.32% |
0.09% |
| 86 |
Samantha Stosur |
1533 |
44.84% |
23.57% |
8.28% |
2.25% |
0.62% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 87 |
Viktorija Golubic |
1448 |
35.57% |
12.59% |
3.20% |
0.62% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 88 |
Zhang Shuai |
1552 |
64.43% |
32.07% |
12.00% |
3.49% |
1.03% |
0.25% |
0.07% |
| 89 |
Caroline Garcia |
1646 |
68.85% |
43.16% |
15.85% |
8.52% |
3.53% |
1.23% |
0.46% |
| 90 |
Ons Jabeur |
1509 |
31.15% |
13.46% |
3.04% |
1.08% |
0.27% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 91 |
Aliaksandra Sasnovich |
1569 |
53.86% |
24.28% |
6.85% |
2.96% |
0.94% |
0.24% |
0.07% |
| 92 |
Jennifer Brady |
1542 |
46.14% |
19.10% |
4.89% |
1.94% |
0.55% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| 93 |
Mariam Bolkvadze |
1500 |
42.37% |
7.70% |
2.91% |
1.00% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 94 |
Bernada Pera |
1553 |
57.63% |
12.98% |
5.84% |
2.41% |
0.72% |
0.18% |
0.05% |
| 95 |
Tereza Martincova |
1421 |
9.24% |
3.22% |
0.90% |
0.23% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 96 |
Karolina Pliskova |
1818 |
90.76% |
76.10% |
59.73% |
44.69% |
28.95% |
16.47% |
9.98% |
| 97 |
Serena Williams |
1841 |
67.58% |
56.98% |
44.41% |
34.31% |
21.07% |
13.54% |
8.59% |
| 98 |
Maria Sharapova |
1713 |
32.42% |
23.41% |
14.79% |
9.26% |
4.18% |
1.97% |
0.91% |
| 99 |
Caty McNally |
1492 |
37.93% |
5.72% |
1.90% |
0.63% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 100 |
Timea Bacsinszky |
1577 |
62.07% |
13.88% |
6.18% |
2.74% |
0.80% |
0.24% |
0.07% |
| 101 |
Elena Rybakina |
1583 |
48.39% |
21.87% |
6.27% |
2.83% |
0.84% |
0.25% |
0.08% |
| 102 |
Karolina Muchova |
1594 |
51.61% |
24.09% |
7.20% |
3.35% |
1.03% |
0.33% |
0.10% |
| 103 |
Jana Cepelova |
1409 |
18.90% |
4.97% |
0.69% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 104 |
Hsieh Su-Wei |
1662 |
81.10% |
49.07% |
18.56% |
10.39% |
4.03% |
1.63% |
0.64% |
| 105 |
Petra Martic |
1689 |
70.68% |
55.36% |
34.85% |
15.55% |
6.54% |
2.87% |
1.23% |
| 106 |
Tamara Zidansek |
1536 |
29.32% |
17.59% |
7.44% |
1.97% |
0.49% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 107 |
Ana Bogdan |
1453 |
46.69% |
12.00% |
3.80% |
0.71% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 108 |
Harriet Dart |
1476 |
53.31% |
15.05% |
5.19% |
1.08% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 109 |
Ivana Jorovic |
1480 |
38.70% |
12.47% |
4.27% |
0.90% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 110 |
Iga Swiatek |
1560 |
61.30% |
25.99% |
11.52% |
3.35% |
0.91% |
0.25% |
0.07% |
| 111 |
Eugenie Bouchard |
1481 |
26.17% |
11.33% |
3.90% |
0.83% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 112 |
Anastasija Sevastova |
1662 |
73.83% |
50.21% |
29.02% |
11.94% |
4.62% |
1.86% |
0.73% |
| 113 |
Angelique Kerber |
1725 |
71.01% |
53.78% |
36.64% |
16.29% |
8.43% |
4.11% |
1.97% |
| 114 |
Kristina Mladenovic |
1569 |
28.99% |
16.24% |
7.67% |
2.06% |
0.66% |
0.19% |
0.05% |
| 115 |
Fiona Ferro |
1510 |
45.60% |
12.79% |
5.01% |
1.07% |
0.27% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 116 |
Daria Gavrilova |
1541 |
54.40% |
17.19% |
7.45% |
1.80% |
0.52% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| 117 |
Viktoria Kuzmova |
1539 |
48.30% |
19.58% |
7.18% |
1.72% |
0.49% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| 118 |
Alison Van Uytvanck |
1551 |
51.70% |
21.78% |
8.30% |
2.08% |
0.62% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
| 119 |
Caroline Dolehide |
1496 |
28.86% |
12.40% |
3.90% |
0.79% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 120 |
Wang Qiang |
1653 |
71.14% |
46.24% |
23.85% |
8.54% |
3.61% |
1.41% |
0.54% |
| 121 |
Maria Sakkari |
1659 |
51.84% |
37.02% |
12.58% |
6.69% |
2.88% |
1.15% |
0.45% |
| 122 |
Camila Giorgi |
1646 |
48.16% |
33.66% |
10.98% |
5.65% |
2.34% |
0.89% |
0.33% |
| 123 |
Peng Shuai |
1532 |
63.50% |
21.17% |
4.65% |
1.69% |
0.47% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 124 |
Varvara Lepchenko |
1436 |
36.50% |
8.15% |
1.22% |
0.31% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 125 |
Lauren Davis |
1515 |
56.95% |
9.47% |
3.51% |
1.20% |
0.31% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 126 |
Johanna Larsson |
1466 |
43.05% |
5.80% |
1.80% |
0.51% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 127 |
Zarina Diyas |
1495 |
11.01% |
5.53% |
1.91% |
0.61% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 128 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1858 |
88.99% |
79.21% |
63.35% |
48.99% |
33.56% |
22.31% |
14.66% |
