The final Grand Slam of the year, the US Open, is starting shortly, and for the next 2 weeks, I will publish round-by-round updates. After the jump, you will find my pre-tournament predictions for the upcoming tournament.
- Novak Djokovic is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 35.77% chance of winning the whole thing, with Alexander Zverev next at 15.26%. The 3rd most likely is Daniil Medvedev with 11.68% and Stefanos Tsitsipas 4th with 8.17%
- Felix Auger-Aliassime has the easiest overall draw, as he is 0.27 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Andy Murray has a tough draw. He is 0.34 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- Murray also has the toughest 1st round match, as he's 45.26 percentage points less likely to win than a player of his rank is expected to win. Facundo Bagnis got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's 30.57 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than his ranking would expect.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak Djokovic | 2014 | 95.69% | 89.67% | 77.88% | 71.40% | 60.64% | 46.40% | 35.77% |
| 2 | Holger Rune | 1475 | 4.31% | 1.76% | 0.45% | 0.15% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Tallon Griekspoor | 1484 | 37.50% | 2.46% | 0.66% | 0.23% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Jan-Lennard Struff | 1573 | 62.50% | 6.11% | 2.26% | 1.07% | 0.37% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 5 | Salvatore Caruso | 1411 | 13.34% | 3.72% | 0.23% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Kei Nishikori | 1736 | 86.66% | 61.86% | 14.19% | 9.84% | 5.49% | 2.41% | 1.03% |
| 7 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1553 | 43.98% | 13.93% | 1.58% | 0.71% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 8 | David Goffin | 1595 | 56.02% | 20.49% | 2.76% | 1.39% | 0.52% | 0.14% | 0.04% |
| 9 | Aslan Karatsev | 1618 | 70.69% | 43.36% | 22.63% | 3.76% | 1.51% | 0.45% | 0.13% |
| 10 | Jaume Munar | 1465 | 29.31% | 11.66% | 3.66% | 0.31% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Jordan Thompson | 1559 | 57.11% | 27.35% | 11.98% | 1.56% | 0.51% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 12 | Gianluca Mager | 1509 | 42.89% | 17.63% | 6.52% | 0.68% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 13 | Jenson Brooksby | 1562 | 49.72% | 20.16% | 9.99% | 1.31% | 0.44% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 14 | Mikael Ymer | 1563 | 50.28% | 20.51% | 10.22% | 1.36% | 0.45% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 15 | Taylor Fritz | 1600 | 42.84% | 23.71% | 13.02% | 2.01% | 0.76% | 0.21% | 0.06% |
| 16 | Alex De Minaur | 1650 | 57.16% | 35.62% | 22.00% | 4.15% | 1.84% | 0.62% | 0.20% |
| 17 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1674 | 67.44% | 40.70% | 25.34% | 11.58% | 2.82% | 1.03% | 0.36% |
| 18 | Egor Gerasimov | 1547 | 32.56% | 14.01% | 6.28% | 1.91% | 0.29% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 19 | Andreas Seppi | 1488 | 29.10% | 8.93% | 3.29% | 0.79% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 20 | Marton Fucsovics | 1642 | 70.90% | 36.36% | 21.09% | 8.79% | 1.92% | 0.63% | 0.20% |
| 21 | Denis Kudla | 1485 | 36.63% | 12.85% | 3.98% | 0.95% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 22 | Laslo Djere | 1580 | 63.37% | 30.27% | 13.10% | 4.47% | 0.77% | 0.20% | 0.05% |
| 23 | Oscar Otte | 1484 | 28.81% | 11.91% | 3.67% | 0.87% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 24 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1641 | 71.19% | 44.97% | 23.25% | 9.65% | 2.09% | 0.68% | 0.21% |
| 25 | Fabio Fognini | 1612 | 57.87% | 29.80% | 10.66% | 5.22% | 1.02% | 0.30% | 0.08% |
| 26 | Vasek Pospisil | 1557 | 42.13% | 18.50% | 5.49% | 2.27% | 0.36% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 27 | Tennys Sandgren | 1482 | 28.03% | 9.87% | 2.21% | 0.70% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 28 | Ilya Ivashka | 1646 | 71.97% | 41.83% | 16.64% | 8.94% | 1.97% | 0.65% | 0.21% |
| 29 | Corentin Moutet | 1512 | 58.33% | 11.63% | 4.34% | 1.54% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 30 | Stefano Travaglia | 1453 | 41.67% | 6.37% | 1.91% | 0.54% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 31 | Jeremy Chardy | 1618 | 24.50% | 16.61% | 8.64% | 4.30% | 0.86% | 0.26% | 0.07% |
| 32 | Matteo Berrettini | 1813 | 75.50% | 65.38% | 50.09% | 37.49% | 14.13% | 7.57% | 4.02% |
| 33 | Alexander Zverev | 1909 | 88.55% | 79.20% | 70.03% | 58.50% | 45.73% | 23.31% | 15.26% |
| 34 | Sam Querrey | 1554 | 11.45% | 5.99% | 3.00% | 1.26% | 0.43% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 35 | Albert Ramos Vinolas | 1544 | 52.04% | 7.94% | 3.87% | 1.58% | 0.52% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 36 | Lucas Pouille | 1530 | 47.96% | 6.87% | 3.21% | 1.25% | 0.39% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 37 | Yoshihito Nishioka | 1524 | 48.77% | 21.31% | 3.76% | 1.44% | 0.44% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 38 | Jack Sock | 1533 | 51.23% | 23.00% | 4.20% | 1.65% | 0.52% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 39 | Yannick Hanfmann | 1524 | 39.39% | 19.40% | 3.42% | 1.30% | 0.39% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 40 | Alexander Bublik | 1598 | 60.61% | 36.30% | 8.50% | 4.08% | 1.61% | 0.31% | 0.08% |
| 41 | Gael Monfils | 1626 | 64.64% | 43.06% | 21.92% | 6.49% | 2.81% | 0.60% | 0.18% |
| 42 | Federico Coria | 1521 | 35.36% | 18.58% | 6.93% | 1.42% | 0.43% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 43 | Steve Johnson | 1543 | 66.62% | 28.97% | 11.58% | 2.57% | 0.84% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 44 | Maximilian Marterer | 1423 | 33.38% | 9.38% | 2.43% | 0.33% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 45 | Marco Cecchinato | 1509 | 53.03% | 16.25% | 6.89% | 1.34% | 0.38% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 46 | Zachary Svajda | 1488 | 46.97% | 13.27% | 5.25% | 0.94% | 0.25% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 47 | Max Purcell | 1520 | 25.78% | 13.69% | 6.02% | 1.23% | 0.37% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 48 | Jannik Sinner | 1704 | 74.22% | 56.78% | 38.98% | 14.65% | 7.88% | 2.23% | 0.87% |
| 49 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1779 | 82.11% | 58.35% | 43.78% | 30.49% | 14.77% | 5.31% | 2.58% |
| 50 | Maxime Cressy | 1514 | 17.89% | 6.28% | 2.53% | 0.88% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Sebastian Korda | 1646 | 58.09% | 22.20% | 13.00% | 6.80% | 2.26% | 0.52% | 0.16% |
| 52 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1589 | 41.91% | 13.18% | 6.67% | 2.97% | 0.82% | 0.15% | 0.04% |
| 53 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1580 | 63.63% | 29.81% | 9.93% | 4.31% | 1.15% | 0.21% | 0.05% |
| 54 | Emilio Nava | 1483 | 36.37% | 12.26% | 2.79% | 0.86% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 55 | Kwon Soon-Woo | 1545 | 37.17% | 18.58% | 5.43% | 2.10% | 0.49% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 56 | Reilly Opelka | 1636 | 62.83% | 39.35% | 15.87% | 8.10% | 2.61% | 0.58% | 0.18% |
| 57 | Karen Khachanov | 1703 | 64.74% | 49.50% | 31.69% | 16.86% | 6.67% | 1.88% | 0.73% |
| 58 | Lloyd Harris | 1598 | 35.26% | 22.57% | 11.22% | 4.40% | 1.25% | 0.24% | 0.06% |
| 59 | Pablo Cuevas | 1524 | 59.59% | 18.45% | 7.31% | 2.21% | 0.48% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 60 | Ernesto Escobedo | 1457 | 40.41% | 9.48% | 2.94% | 0.68% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 61 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 1491 | 40.59% | 12.58% | 4.11% | 1.09% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Tommy Paul | 1557 | 59.41% | 23.47% | 9.63% | 3.29% | 0.80% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 63 | Federico Delbonis | 1570 | 36.27% | 20.18% | 8.62% | 3.08% | 0.79% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 64 | Denis Shapovalov | 1668 | 63.73% | 43.77% | 24.47% | 11.85% | 4.22% | 1.05% | 0.36% |
| 65 | Andrey Rublev | 1823 | 89.38% | 76.12% | 60.85% | 44.33% | 27.34% | 15.95% | 6.35% |
| 66 | Ivo Karlovic | 1453 | 10.62% | 4.33% | 1.44% | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 67 | Pedro Martinez | 1540 | 57.48% | 12.24% | 5.48% | 1.97% | 0.54% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 68 | James Duckworth | 1488 | 42.52% | 7.31% | 2.75% | 0.82% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 69 | Frances Tiafoe | 1601 | 73.71% | 39.51% | 12.48% | 5.48% | 1.87% | 0.57% | 0.10% |
| 70 | Christopher Eubanks | 1421 | 26.29% | 7.79% | 1.24% | 0.28% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 71 | Guido Pella | 1501 | 34.45% | 14.72% | 3.25% | 1.02% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 72 | Filip Krajinovic | 1613 | 65.55% | 37.98% | 12.51% | 5.71% | 2.04% | 0.65% | 0.12% |
| 73 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1671 | 48.33% | 34.08% | 19.74% | 8.47% | 3.61% | 1.40% | 0.33% |
| 74 | Nick Kyrgios | 1682 | 51.67% | 37.14% | 22.07% | 9.79% | 4.31% | 1.74% | 0.43% |
| 75 | Kamil Majchrzak | 1456 | 36.55% | 8.01% | 2.46% | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 76 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1552 | 63.45% | 20.77% | 8.80% | 2.57% | 0.74% | 0.19% | 0.03% |
| 77 | Feliciano Lopez | 1495 | 54.00% | 16.70% | 5.28% | 1.24% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 78 | Bernabe Zapata Miralles | 1467 | 46.00% | 12.83% | 3.64% | 0.77% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 79 | Evgeny Donskoy | 1426 | 18.04% | 7.59% | 1.83% | 0.32% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 80 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1689 | 81.96% | 62.88% | 36.17% | 16.36% | 7.35% | 3.02% | 0.77% |
| 81 | Christian Garin | 1642 | 73.87% | 48.56% | 28.26% | 10.08% | 4.01% | 1.42% | 0.30% |
| 82 | Norbert Gombos | 1462 | 26.13% | 10.61% | 3.59% | 0.64% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Henri Laaksonen | 1496 | 41.99% | 15.35% | 5.87% | 1.21% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 84 | John Millman | 1552 | 58.01% | 25.48% | 11.66% | 3.01% | 0.88% | 0.22% | 0.03% |
| 85 | Dusan Lajovic | 1517 | 50.13% | 18.56% | 7.74% | 1.75% | 0.44% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 86 | Benoit Paire | 1516 | 49.87% | 18.41% | 7.65% | 1.72% | 0.44% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 87 | Peter Gojowczyk | 1516 | 30.90% | 15.39% | 6.38% | 1.43% | 0.36% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 88 | Ugo Humbert | 1655 | 69.10% | 47.64% | 28.87% | 10.75% | 4.46% | 1.65% | 0.37% |
| 89 | Cameron Norrie | 1693 | 64.59% | 45.90% | 17.66% | 11.21% | 5.19% | 2.16% | 0.56% |
| 90 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1588 | 35.41% | 20.32% | 5.47% | 2.69% | 0.89% | 0.26% | 0.04% |
| 91 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1530 | 48.22% | 15.90% | 3.42% | 1.41% | 0.38% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 92 | Arthur Rinderknech | 1543 | 51.78% | 17.88% | 4.03% | 1.73% | 0.49% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 93 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert | 1551 | 53.87% | 9.67% | 3.93% | 1.73% | 0.50% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 94 | Adrian Mannarino | 1524 | 46.13% | 7.31% | 2.71% | 1.10% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 95 | Andy Murray | 1713 | 28.96% | 21.20% | 13.30% | 8.78% | 4.30% | 1.90% | 0.53% |
| 96 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1869 | 71.04% | 61.82% | 49.48% | 40.75% | 28.03% | 17.97% | 8.17% |
| 97 | Casper Ruud | 1767 | 73.02% | 59.83% | 45.85% | 28.56% | 14.93% | 7.60% | 2.54% |
| 98 | Jo-Wilfried Tsonga | 1594 | 26.98% | 16.91% | 9.50% | 3.70% | 1.18% | 0.35% | 0.06% |
| 99 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1521 | 55.46% | 13.82% | 6.42% | 1.92% | 0.47% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 100 | Carlos Taberner | 1482 | 44.54% | 9.44% | 3.91% | 1.00% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 101 | Facundo Bagnis | 1426 | 48.62% | 14.17% | 2.98% | 0.60% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 102 | Taro Daniel | 1436 | 51.38% | 15.54% | 3.41% | 0.72% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 103 | Marco Trungelliti | 1469 | 28.10% | 15.58% | 3.91% | 0.95% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 104 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1632 | 71.90% | 54.71% | 24.02% | 10.56% | 3.82% | 1.29% | 0.26% |
| 105 | John Isner | 1740 | 71.89% | 58.06% | 35.73% | 21.54% | 10.54% | 4.99% | 1.52% |
| 106 | Brandon Nakashima | 1577 | 28.11% | 17.57% | 6.90% | 2.71% | 0.82% | 0.22% | 0.04% |
| 107 | Alex Molcan | 1524 | 65.83% | 18.50% | 6.03% | 1.99% | 0.50% | 0.11% | 0.01% |
| 108 | Cem Ilkel | 1410 | 34.17% | 5.87% | 1.20% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 109 | Jiri Vesely | 1506 | 27.18% | 8.72% | 2.75% | 0.85% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 110 | Kevin Anderson | 1677 | 72.82% | 39.68% | 21.04% | 10.99% | 4.55% | 1.79% | 0.43% |
| 111 | Ricardas Berankis | 1491 | 24.09% | 7.60% | 2.27% | 0.66% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 112 | Diego Schwartzman | 1690 | 75.91% | 44.00% | 24.08% | 12.99% | 5.58% | 2.28% | 0.58% |
| 113 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1651 | 80.91% | 56.33% | 35.12% | 12.34% | 5.47% | 1.97% | 0.43% |
| 114 | Unknown Player | 1400 | 19.09% | 6.74% | 1.93% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Alexei Popyrin | 1529 | 57.81% | 22.98% | 10.45% | 2.39% | 0.70% | 0.16% | 0.02% |
| 116 | Radu Albot | 1474 | 42.19% | 13.95% | 5.30% | 0.97% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 117 | Marcos Giron | 1564 | 61.57% | 30.09% | 14.30% | 3.74% | 1.24% | 0.33% | 0.05% |
| 118 | Antoine Hoang | 1482 | 38.43% | 14.47% | 5.32% | 1.01% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.00% |
| 119 | Thiago Monteiro | 1491 | 33.22% | 14.64% | 5.54% | 1.09% | 0.27% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 120 | Daniel Evans | 1612 | 66.78% | 40.80% | 22.05% | 6.83% | 2.68% | 0.84% | 0.16% |
| 121 | Marin Cilic | 1662 | 66.39% | 48.99% | 16.17% | 9.78% | 4.48% | 1.68% | 0.38% |
| 122 | Philipp Kohlschreiber | 1544 | 33.61% | 19.76% | 4.27% | 1.89% | 0.58% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| 123 | Mikhail Kukushkin | 1483 | 50.24% | 15.75% | 2.66% | 0.96% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 124 | Pablo Andujar | 1481 | 49.76% | 15.50% | 2.60% | 0.93% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 125 | Dominik Koepfer | 1583 | 73.46% | 15.11% | 7.55% | 3.74% | 1.32% | 0.37% | 0.06% |
| 126 | Quentin Halys | 1406 | 26.54% | 2.44% | 0.67% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 127 | Richard Gasquet | 1595 | 16.20% | 9.39% | 4.85% | 2.49% | 0.92% | 0.27% | 0.05% |
| 128 | Daniil Medvedev | 1881 | 83.80% | 73.06% | 61.23% | 51.39% | 37.95% | 24.87% | 11.68% |
