The final Grand Slam of the year, the US Open, is starting shortly, and for the next 2 weeks, I will publish round-by-round updates. After the jump, you will find my pre-tournament predictions for the upcoming tournament.
- Ashleigh Barty is the most likely player to win the tournament, with a 27.94% chance of winning the title, with Naomi Osaka next at 9.05%. The 3rd most likely is Aryna Sabalenka with 9.98% and Karolina Pliskova 4th with 6.82%
- Pliskova has the easiest overall draw, as she is 0.71 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Garbine Muguruza has a tough draw. She is 0.56 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Vera Zvonareva, as she's 37.6 percentage points less likely to win than a player of her rank is expected to win. Anna Blinkova got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's 33.11 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than her ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashleigh Barty | 1940 | 90.24% | 82.95% | 71.92% | 61.09% | 48.28% | 38.46% | 27.94% |
| 2 | Vera Zvonareva | 1554 | 9.76% | 5.39% | 2.28% | 0.90% | 0.27% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 3 | Clara Burel | 1518 | 50.15% | 5.86% | 2.20% | 0.77% | 0.20% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 4 | Clara Tauson | 1517 | 49.85% | 5.80% | 2.17% | 0.76% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 5 | Shelby Rogers | 1583 | 67.97% | 28.68% | 5.52% | 2.39% | 0.81% | 0.28% | 0.08% |
| 6 | Madison Brengle | 1452 | 32.03% | 8.23% | 0.94% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Sorana Cirstea | 1605 | 41.78% | 24.53% | 5.11% | 2.37% | 0.87% | 0.33% | 0.09% |
| 8 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1662 | 58.22% | 38.57% | 9.86% | 5.35% | 2.37% | 1.08% | 0.39% |
| 9 | Karolina Muchova | 1701 | 58.28% | 42.14% | 27.11% | 8.79% | 4.36% | 2.21% | 0.90% |
| 10 | Sara Sorribes Tormo | 1643 | 41.72% | 27.20% | 15.41% | 4.12% | 1.71% | 0.73% | 0.24% |
| 11 | Hsieh Su-Wei | 1560 | 59.65% | 20.24% | 9.17% | 1.81% | 0.56% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 12 | Claire Liu | 1492 | 40.35% | 10.42% | 3.78% | 0.57% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 13 | Hailey Baptiste | 1491 | 41.02% | 13.45% | 4.17% | 0.62% | 0.15% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 14 | Zhang Shuai | 1554 | 58.98% | 24.10% | 9.38% | 1.81% | 0.55% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 15 | Emma Raducanu | 1505 | 28.47% | 13.32% | 4.37% | 0.69% | 0.17% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 16 | Jennifer Brady | 1665 | 71.53% | 49.13% | 26.60% | 7.69% | 3.44% | 1.57% | 0.57% |
| 17 | Belinda Bencic | 1721 | 81.40% | 65.35% | 39.83% | 21.36% | 8.02% | 4.29% | 1.88% |
| 18 | Arantxa Rus | 1465 | 18.60% | 9.04% | 2.63% | 0.59% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Martina Trevisan | 1424 | 38.46% | 7.96% | 1.98% | 0.37% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 20 | Coco Vandeweghe | 1506 | 61.54% | 17.64% | 5.94% | 1.57% | 0.27% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 21 | Misaki Doi | 1425 | 42.30% | 8.37% | 2.08% | 0.39% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 22 | Storm Sanders | 1479 | 57.70% | 14.40% | 4.38% | 1.04% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 23 | Anastasia Potapova | 1559 | 27.98% | 18.00% | 7.17% | 2.32% | 0.50% | 0.16% | 0.04% |
| 24 | Jessica Pegula | 1723 | 72.02% | 59.23% | 35.99% | 19.42% | 7.34% | 3.95% | 1.74% |
| 25 | Anett Kontaveit | 1733 | 82.70% | 60.53% | 35.05% | 20.43% | 7.96% | 4.40% | 2.00% |
| 26 | Samantha Stosur | 1462 | 17.30% | 6.44% | 1.59% | 0.39% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Cristina Bucsa | 1475 | 33.36% | 8.06% | 2.10% | 0.55% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 28 | Jil Teichmann | 1595 | 66.64% | 24.97% | 9.94% | 3.97% | 0.98% | 0.36% | 0.10% |
| 29 | Fiona Ferro | 1575 | 67.32% | 22.55% | 8.70% | 3.26% | 0.75% | 0.25% | 0.07% |
| 30 | Nao Hibino | 1450 | 32.68% | 6.82% | 1.66% | 0.39% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 31 | Jamie Loeb | 1415 | 13.20% | 4.46% | 0.94% | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 32 | Iga Swiatek | 1742 | 86.80% | 66.16% | 40.02% | 23.77% | 9.49% | 5.35% | 2.49% |
| 33 | Karolina Pliskova | 1772 | 82.43% | 62.62% | 49.06% | 33.12% | 20.81% | 9.28% | 4.71% |
| 34 | Caty McNally | 1503 | 17.57% | 7.16% | 3.16% | 1.03% | 0.29% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 35 | Zarina Diyas | 1515 | 37.70% | 9.19% | 4.20% | 1.43% | 0.41% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 36 | Amanda Anisimova | 1602 | 62.30% | 21.04% | 12.19% | 5.52% | 2.20% | 0.56% | 0.16% |
| 37 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1567 | 66.60% | 35.00% | 11.80% | 4.79% | 1.69% | 0.37% | 0.09% |
| 38 | Katie Volynets | 1447 | 33.40% | 11.99% | 2.54% | 0.67% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 39 | Dalma Galfi | 1502 | 39.16% | 18.22% | 4.84% | 1.57% | 0.44% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 40 | Petra Martic | 1579 | 60.84% | 34.80% | 12.22% | 5.15% | 1.90% | 0.44% | 0.11% |
| 41 | Paula Badosa | 1704 | 72.33% | 56.08% | 35.34% | 19.55% | 10.52% | 3.83% | 1.59% |
| 42 | Alison Van Uytvanck | 1537 | 27.67% | 15.76% | 6.46% | 2.20% | 0.70% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 43 | Varvara Gracheva | 1473 | 45.82% | 12.10% | 3.99% | 1.07% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 44 | Nuria Parrizas Diaz | 1502 | 54.18% | 16.06% | 5.87% | 1.76% | 0.49% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 45 | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | 1503 | 64.44% | 20.04% | 7.04% | 2.13% | 0.59% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 46 | Unknown Player | 1400 | 35.56% | 7.18% | 1.70% | 0.34% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 47 | Alison Riske | 1554 | 31.65% | 19.65% | 8.16% | 2.95% | 0.99% | 0.21% | 0.05% |
| 48 | Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | 1688 | 68.35% | 53.14% | 31.42% | 16.71% | 8.60% | 2.97% | 1.16% |
| 49 | Petra Kvitova | 1728 | 78.42% | 62.77% | 36.42% | 22.81% | 12.93% | 5.06% | 2.26% |
| 50 | Polona Hercog | 1503 | 21.58% | 11.34% | 3.24% | 1.07% | 0.30% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 51 | Danka Kovinic | 1500 | 54.45% | 14.89% | 4.20% | 1.36% | 0.38% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 52 | Kristyna Pliskova | 1469 | 45.55% | 11.00% | 2.73% | 0.79% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 53 | Anastasija Sevastova | 1584 | 43.05% | 15.37% | 6.54% | 2.82% | 1.06% | 0.25% | 0.07% |
| 54 | Katerina Siniakova | 1632 | 56.95% | 23.92% | 11.66% | 5.81% | 2.55% | 0.73% | 0.23% |
| 55 | Marta Kostyuk | 1556 | 26.08% | 10.99% | 4.29% | 1.70% | 0.58% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 56 | Maria Sakkari | 1737 | 73.92% | 49.72% | 30.92% | 19.74% | 11.44% | 4.61% | 2.12% |
| 57 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1675 | 66.05% | 44.08% | 25.25% | 12.45% | 6.19% | 2.04% | 0.77% |
| 58 | Nadia Podoroska | 1560 | 33.95% | 17.26% | 7.26% | 2.48% | 0.86% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 59 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1575 | 57.14% | 23.71% | 10.45% | 3.77% | 1.38% | 0.31% | 0.08% |
| 60 | Katie Boulter | 1525 | 42.86% | 14.95% | 5.64% | 1.69% | 0.52% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 61 | Lauren Davis | 1492 | 58.77% | 16.35% | 5.58% | 1.47% | 0.40% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 62 | Viktoriya Tomova | 1430 | 41.23% | 8.84% | 2.37% | 0.48% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 63 | Viktorija Golubic | 1567 | 31.12% | 19.92% | 8.80% | 3.08% | 1.10% | 0.24% | 0.06% |
| 64 | Bianca Andreescu | 1705 | 68.88% | 54.89% | 34.64% | 18.48% | 9.93% | 3.62% | 1.51% |
| 65 | Elina Svitolina | 1767 | 79.71% | 66.08% | 43.81% | 25.50% | 13.62% | 7.11% | 3.28% |
| 66 | Rebecca Marino | 1530 | 20.29% | 11.21% | 3.82% | 1.07% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 67 | Rebeka Masarova | 1501 | 52.44% | 12.31% | 3.77% | 0.94% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 68 | Ana Bogdan | 1484 | 47.56% | 10.41% | 2.98% | 0.70% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 69 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1665 | 67.59% | 35.43% | 16.96% | 7.57% | 3.03% | 1.16% | 0.39% |
| 70 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse | 1538 | 32.41% | 11.36% | 3.69% | 1.07% | 0.27% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 71 | Tsvetana Pironkova | 1560 | 32.28% | 13.28% | 4.65% | 1.47% | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 72 | Daria Kasatkina | 1689 | 67.72% | 39.93% | 20.32% | 9.71% | 4.18% | 1.73% | 0.63% |
| 73 | Elena Rybakina | 1698 | 69.41% | 49.90% | 23.47% | 12.00% | 5.31% | 2.27% | 0.85% |
| 74 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1556 | 30.59% | 16.37% | 4.83% | 1.58% | 0.43% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 75 | Caroline Garcia | 1573 | 68.28% | 26.40% | 8.28% | 2.87% | 0.83% | 0.22% | 0.05% |
| 76 | Harriet Dart | 1439 | 31.72% | 7.32% | 1.34% | 0.27% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 77 | Ann Li | 1569 | 61.72% | 15.40% | 6.55% | 2.24% | 0.64% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 78 | Kristina Kucova | 1486 | 38.28% | 6.58% | 2.11% | 0.52% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 79 | Camila Giorgi | 1692 | 34.61% | 24.46% | 14.47% | 7.26% | 3.15% | 1.31% | 0.48% |
| 80 | Simona Halep | 1802 | 65.39% | 53.55% | 38.94% | 25.23% | 14.63% | 8.34% | 4.22% |
| 81 | Angelique Kerber | 1746 | 69.59% | 56.19% | 33.84% | 17.40% | 9.32% | 4.59% | 2.00% |
| 82 | Dayana Yastremska | 1603 | 30.41% | 19.69% | 7.96% | 2.69% | 0.93% | 0.28% | 0.08% |
| 83 | Mayar Sherif | 1480 | 45.47% | 10.18% | 2.59% | 0.55% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 84 | Anhelina Kalinina | 1511 | 54.53% | 13.95% | 4.03% | 0.98% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 85 | Madison Keys | 1645 | 57.03% | 24.61% | 11.82% | 4.58% | 1.83% | 0.65% | 0.20% |
| 86 | Sloane Stephens | 1596 | 42.97% | 15.72% | 6.54% | 2.17% | 0.73% | 0.22% | 0.06% |
| 87 | Magda Linette | 1599 | 31.14% | 14.46% | 6.08% | 2.03% | 0.69% | 0.21% | 0.05% |
| 88 | Coco Gauff | 1737 | 68.86% | 45.21% | 27.14% | 13.63% | 7.12% | 3.41% | 1.44% |
| 89 | Yulia Putintseva | 1632 | 57.46% | 32.97% | 11.42% | 4.87% | 1.86% | 0.63% | 0.19% |
| 90 | Kaia Kanepi | 1580 | 42.54% | 21.26% | 6.20% | 2.22% | 0.70% | 0.20% | 0.05% |
| 91 | Leylah Annie Fernandez | 1544 | 41.36% | 16.85% | 4.34% | 1.37% | 0.38% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 92 | Ana Konjuh | 1605 | 58.64% | 28.92% | 9.18% | 3.58% | 1.25% | 0.38% | 0.10% |
| 93 | Alycia Parks | 1504 | 52.20% | 9.35% | 3.45% | 0.93% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 94 | Olga Danilovic | 1489 | 47.80% | 8.02% | 2.79% | 0.71% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 95 | Marie Bouzkova | 1511 | 13.49% | 7.01% | 2.65% | 0.73% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 96 | Naomi Osaka | 1834 | 86.51% | 75.61% | 59.98% | 41.56% | 27.05% | 16.56% | 9.05% |
| 97 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1775 | 81.93% | 70.50% | 50.38% | 29.06% | 15.97% | 8.48% | 4.00% |
| 98 | Astra Sharma | 1513 | 18.07% | 10.48% | 3.80% | 0.95% | 0.22% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 99 | Emma Navarro | 1488 | 61.73% | 13.28% | 4.39% | 0.99% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 100 | Christina McHale | 1405 | 38.27% | 5.73% | 1.35% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 101 | Kristina Mladenovic | 1544 | 34.90% | 15.02% | 4.82% | 1.36% | 0.35% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 102 | Johanna Konta | 1652 | 65.10% | 37.82% | 16.90% | 6.97% | 2.68% | 0.98% | 0.31% |
| 103 | Sara Errani | 1515 | 33.63% | 12.23% | 3.56% | 0.90% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 104 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1633 | 66.37% | 34.93% | 14.80% | 5.75% | 2.07% | 0.71% | 0.21% |
| 105 | Victoria Azarenka | 1768 | 78.26% | 67.37% | 40.80% | 24.69% | 13.31% | 6.93% | 3.20% |
| 106 | Tereza Martincova | 1545 | 21.74% | 13.75% | 4.36% | 1.39% | 0.36% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 107 | Jasmine Paolini | 1459 | 52.64% | 10.31% | 2.33% | 0.53% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 108 | Yaroslava Shvedova | 1441 | 47.36% | 8.56% | 1.79% | 0.38% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 109 | Andrea Petkovic | 1597 | 55.27% | 18.31% | 7.21% | 2.76% | 0.87% | 0.26% | 0.07% |
| 110 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1560 | 44.73% | 12.89% | 4.53% | 1.53% | 0.42% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 111 | Donna Vekic | 1593 | 26.40% | 13.67% | 5.32% | 2.00% | 0.62% | 0.18% | 0.05% |
| 112 | Garbine Muguruza | 1771 | 73.60% | 55.13% | 33.67% | 20.51% | 11.15% | 5.85% | 2.73% |
| 113 | Elise Mertens | 1719 | 72.00% | 60.50% | 34.02% | 16.30% | 7.95% | 3.61% | 1.45% |
| 114 | Rebecca Peterson | 1555 | 28.00% | 18.81% | 6.60% | 1.85% | 0.52% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 115 | Valentini Grammatikopoulou | 1425 | 48.29% | 9.72% | 2.07% | 0.34% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 116 | Anna Blinkova | 1437 | 51.71% | 10.97% | 2.45% | 0.42% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 117 | Ivana Jorovic | 1447 | 36.65% | 6.78% | 1.89% | 0.34% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 118 | Maria Camila Osorio Serrano | 1542 | 63.35% | 17.63% | 6.81% | 1.82% | 0.48% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 119 | Alize Cornet | 1612 | 30.21% | 19.43% | 9.20% | 3.16% | 1.09% | 0.35% | 0.10% |
| 120 | Ons Jabeur | 1757 | 69.79% | 56.16% | 36.95% | 19.54% | 10.54% | 5.33% | 2.39% |
| 121 | Danielle Collins | 1719 | 66.83% | 52.09% | 24.27% | 13.24% | 6.46% | 2.93% | 1.18% |
| 122 | Carla Suarez Navarro | 1597 | 33.17% | 21.12% | 6.78% | 2.61% | 0.86% | 0.26% | 0.07% |
| 123 | Heather Watson | 1487 | 46.64% | 11.86% | 2.53% | 0.65% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 124 | Kaja Juvan | 1511 | 53.36% | 14.93% | 3.49% | 0.99% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 125 | Bernada Pera | 1482 | 37.09% | 6.45% | 1.97% | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 126 | Tamara Zidansek | 1574 | 62.91% | 15.85% | 6.62% | 2.36% | 0.71% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 127 | Nina Stojanovic | 1481 | 12.59% | 5.25% | 1.60% | 0.40% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 128 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1818 | 87.41% | 72.45% | 52.75% | 35.48% | 22.02% | 12.96% | 6.82% |
