Monday 30 August 2021

2021 US Open Predictions - Women's

The final Grand Slam of the year, the US Open, is starting shortly, and for the next 2 weeks, I will publish round-by-round updates. After the jump, you will find my pre-tournament predictions for the upcoming tournament.

US Open logo, © US Open

But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
  • Ashleigh Barty is the most likely player to win the tournament, with a 27.94% chance of winning the title, with Naomi Osaka next at 9.05%. The 3rd most likely is Aryna Sabalenka with 9.98% and Karolina Pliskova 4th with 6.82%
  • Pliskova has the easiest overall draw, as she is 0.71 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Garbine Muguruza has a tough draw. She is 0.56 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
  • The toughest 1st round draw went to Vera Zvonareva, as she's 37.6 percentage points less likely to win than a player of her rank is expected to win. Anna Blinkova got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's 33.11 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than her ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.

# Name ELO R1 % R2 % R3 % R4 % R5 % R6 % R7 %
1 Ashleigh Barty 1940 90.24% 82.95% 71.92% 61.09% 48.28% 38.46% 27.94%
2 Vera Zvonareva 1554 9.76% 5.39% 2.28% 0.90% 0.27% 0.09% 0.02%
3 Clara Burel 1518 50.15% 5.86% 2.20% 0.77% 0.20% 0.06% 0.01%
4 Clara Tauson 1517 49.85% 5.80% 2.17% 0.76% 0.20% 0.05% 0.01%
5 Shelby Rogers 1583 67.97% 28.68% 5.52% 2.39% 0.81% 0.28% 0.08%
6 Madison Brengle 1452 32.03% 8.23% 0.94% 0.25% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
7 Sorana Cirstea 1605 41.78% 24.53% 5.11% 2.37% 0.87% 0.33% 0.09%
8 Veronika Kudermetova 1662 58.22% 38.57% 9.86% 5.35% 2.37% 1.08% 0.39%
9 Karolina Muchova 1701 58.28% 42.14% 27.11% 8.79% 4.36% 2.21% 0.90%
10 Sara Sorribes Tormo 1643 41.72% 27.20% 15.41% 4.12% 1.71% 0.73% 0.24%
11 Hsieh Su-Wei 1560 59.65% 20.24% 9.17% 1.81% 0.56% 0.18% 0.04%
12 Claire Liu 1492 40.35% 10.42% 3.78% 0.57% 0.13% 0.03% 0.01%
13 Hailey Baptiste 1491 41.02% 13.45% 4.17% 0.62% 0.15% 0.04% 0.01%
14 Zhang Shuai 1554 58.98% 24.10% 9.38% 1.81% 0.55% 0.17% 0.04%
15 Emma Raducanu 1505 28.47% 13.32% 4.37% 0.69% 0.17% 0.05% 0.01%
16 Jennifer Brady 1665 71.53% 49.13% 26.60% 7.69% 3.44% 1.57% 0.57%
17 Belinda Bencic 1721 81.40% 65.35% 39.83% 21.36% 8.02% 4.29% 1.88%
18 Arantxa Rus 1465 18.60% 9.04% 2.63% 0.59% 0.09% 0.02% 0.00%
19 Martina Trevisan 1424 38.46% 7.96% 1.98% 0.37% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
20 Coco Vandeweghe 1506 61.54% 17.64% 5.94% 1.57% 0.27% 0.07% 0.01%
21 Misaki Doi 1425 42.30% 8.37% 2.08% 0.39% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
22 Storm Sanders 1479 57.70% 14.40% 4.38% 1.04% 0.16% 0.04% 0.01%
23 Anastasia Potapova 1559 27.98% 18.00% 7.17% 2.32% 0.50% 0.16% 0.04%
24 Jessica Pegula 1723 72.02% 59.23% 35.99% 19.42% 7.34% 3.95% 1.74%
25 Anett Kontaveit 1733 82.70% 60.53% 35.05% 20.43% 7.96% 4.40% 2.00%
26 Samantha Stosur 1462 17.30% 6.44% 1.59% 0.39% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
27 Cristina Bucsa 1475 33.36% 8.06% 2.10% 0.55% 0.08% 0.02% 0.00%
28 Jil Teichmann 1595 66.64% 24.97% 9.94% 3.97% 0.98% 0.36% 0.10%
29 Fiona Ferro 1575 67.32% 22.55% 8.70% 3.26% 0.75% 0.25% 0.07%
30 Nao Hibino 1450 32.68% 6.82% 1.66% 0.39% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
31 Jamie Loeb 1415 13.20% 4.46% 0.94% 0.19% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
32 Iga Swiatek 1742 86.80% 66.16% 40.02% 23.77% 9.49% 5.35% 2.49%
33 Karolina Pliskova 1772 82.43% 62.62% 49.06% 33.12% 20.81% 9.28% 4.71%
34 Caty McNally 1503 17.57% 7.16% 3.16% 1.03% 0.29% 0.05% 0.01%
35 Zarina Diyas 1515 37.70% 9.19% 4.20% 1.43% 0.41% 0.07% 0.01%
36 Amanda Anisimova 1602 62.30% 21.04% 12.19% 5.52% 2.20% 0.56% 0.16%
37 Ajla Tomljanovic 1567 66.60% 35.00% 11.80% 4.79% 1.69% 0.37% 0.09%
38 Katie Volynets 1447 33.40% 11.99% 2.54% 0.67% 0.15% 0.02% 0.00%
39 Dalma Galfi 1502 39.16% 18.22% 4.84% 1.57% 0.44% 0.07% 0.01%
40 Petra Martic 1579 60.84% 34.80% 12.22% 5.15% 1.90% 0.44% 0.11%
41 Paula Badosa 1704 72.33% 56.08% 35.34% 19.55% 10.52% 3.83% 1.59%
42 Alison Van Uytvanck 1537 27.67% 15.76% 6.46% 2.20% 0.70% 0.14% 0.03%
43 Varvara Gracheva 1473 45.82% 12.10% 3.99% 1.07% 0.26% 0.04% 0.01%
44 Nuria Parrizas Diaz 1502 54.18% 16.06% 5.87% 1.76% 0.49% 0.08% 0.02%
45 Anna Karolina Schmiedlova 1503 64.44% 20.04% 7.04% 2.13% 0.59% 0.10% 0.02%
46 Unknown Player 1400 35.56% 7.18% 1.70% 0.34% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
47 Alison Riske 1554 31.65% 19.65% 8.16% 2.95% 0.99% 0.21% 0.05%
48 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 1688 68.35% 53.14% 31.42% 16.71% 8.60% 2.97% 1.16%
49 Petra Kvitova 1728 78.42% 62.77% 36.42% 22.81% 12.93% 5.06% 2.26%
50 Polona Hercog 1503 21.58% 11.34% 3.24% 1.07% 0.30% 0.05% 0.01%
51 Danka Kovinic 1500 54.45% 14.89% 4.20% 1.36% 0.38% 0.06% 0.01%
52 Kristyna Pliskova 1469 45.55% 11.00% 2.73% 0.79% 0.19% 0.03% 0.00%
53 Anastasija Sevastova 1584 43.05% 15.37% 6.54% 2.82% 1.06% 0.25% 0.07%
54 Katerina Siniakova 1632 56.95% 23.92% 11.66% 5.81% 2.55% 0.73% 0.23%
55 Marta Kostyuk 1556 26.08% 10.99% 4.29% 1.70% 0.58% 0.12% 0.03%
56 Maria Sakkari 1737 73.92% 49.72% 30.92% 19.74% 11.44% 4.61% 2.12%
57 Jelena Ostapenko 1675 66.05% 44.08% 25.25% 12.45% 6.19% 2.04% 0.77%
58 Nadia Podoroska 1560 33.95% 17.26% 7.26% 2.48% 0.86% 0.18% 0.04%
59 Liudmila Samsonova 1575 57.14% 23.71% 10.45% 3.77% 1.38% 0.31% 0.08%
60 Katie Boulter 1525 42.86% 14.95% 5.64% 1.69% 0.52% 0.10% 0.02%
61 Lauren Davis 1492 58.77% 16.35% 5.58% 1.47% 0.40% 0.06% 0.01%
62 Viktoriya Tomova 1430 41.23% 8.84% 2.37% 0.48% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00%
63 Viktorija Golubic 1567 31.12% 19.92% 8.80% 3.08% 1.10% 0.24% 0.06%
64 Bianca Andreescu 1705 68.88% 54.89% 34.64% 18.48% 9.93% 3.62% 1.51%
65 Elina Svitolina 1767 79.71% 66.08% 43.81% 25.50% 13.62% 7.11% 3.28%
66 Rebecca Marino 1530 20.29% 11.21% 3.82% 1.07% 0.26% 0.06% 0.01%
67 Rebeka Masarova 1501 52.44% 12.31% 3.77% 0.94% 0.20% 0.04% 0.01%
68 Ana Bogdan 1484 47.56% 10.41% 2.98% 0.70% 0.14% 0.03% 0.00%
69 Marketa Vondrousova 1665 67.59% 35.43% 16.96% 7.57% 3.03% 1.16% 0.39%
70 Elena-Gabriela Ruse 1538 32.41% 11.36% 3.69% 1.07% 0.27% 0.06% 0.01%
71 Tsvetana Pironkova 1560 32.28% 13.28% 4.65% 1.47% 0.40% 0.10% 0.02%
72 Daria Kasatkina 1689 67.72% 39.93% 20.32% 9.71% 4.18% 1.73% 0.63%
73 Elena Rybakina 1698 69.41% 49.90% 23.47% 12.00% 5.31% 2.27% 0.85%
74 Aliaksandra Sasnovich 1556 30.59% 16.37% 4.83% 1.58% 0.43% 0.11% 0.02%
75 Caroline Garcia 1573 68.28% 26.40% 8.28% 2.87% 0.83% 0.22% 0.05%
76 Harriet Dart 1439 31.72% 7.32% 1.34% 0.27% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
77 Ann Li 1569 61.72% 15.40% 6.55% 2.24% 0.64% 0.17% 0.04%
78 Kristina Kucova 1486 38.28% 6.58% 2.11% 0.52% 0.11% 0.02% 0.00%
79 Camila Giorgi 1692 34.61% 24.46% 14.47% 7.26% 3.15% 1.31% 0.48%
80 Simona Halep 1802 65.39% 53.55% 38.94% 25.23% 14.63% 8.34% 4.22%
81 Angelique Kerber 1746 69.59% 56.19% 33.84% 17.40% 9.32% 4.59% 2.00%
82 Dayana Yastremska 1603 30.41% 19.69% 7.96% 2.69% 0.93% 0.28% 0.08%
83 Mayar Sherif 1480 45.47% 10.18% 2.59% 0.55% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00%
84 Anhelina Kalinina 1511 54.53% 13.95% 4.03% 0.98% 0.24% 0.05% 0.01%
85 Madison Keys 1645 57.03% 24.61% 11.82% 4.58% 1.83% 0.65% 0.20%
86 Sloane Stephens 1596 42.97% 15.72% 6.54% 2.17% 0.73% 0.22% 0.06%
87 Magda Linette 1599 31.14% 14.46% 6.08% 2.03% 0.69% 0.21% 0.05%
88 Coco Gauff 1737 68.86% 45.21% 27.14% 13.63% 7.12% 3.41% 1.44%
89 Yulia Putintseva 1632 57.46% 32.97% 11.42% 4.87% 1.86% 0.63% 0.19%
90 Kaia Kanepi 1580 42.54% 21.26% 6.20% 2.22% 0.70% 0.20% 0.05%
91 Leylah Annie Fernandez 1544 41.36% 16.85% 4.34% 1.37% 0.38% 0.09% 0.02%
92 Ana Konjuh 1605 58.64% 28.92% 9.18% 3.58% 1.25% 0.38% 0.10%
93 Alycia Parks 1504 52.20% 9.35% 3.45% 0.93% 0.22% 0.04% 0.01%
94 Olga Danilovic 1489 47.80% 8.02% 2.79% 0.71% 0.16% 0.03% 0.00%
95 Marie Bouzkova 1511 13.49% 7.01% 2.65% 0.73% 0.18% 0.04% 0.01%
96 Naomi Osaka 1834 86.51% 75.61% 59.98% 41.56% 27.05% 16.56% 9.05%
97 Barbora Krejcikova 1775 81.93% 70.50% 50.38% 29.06% 15.97% 8.48% 4.00%
98 Astra Sharma 1513 18.07% 10.48% 3.80% 0.95% 0.22% 0.05% 0.01%
99 Emma Navarro 1488 61.73% 13.28% 4.39% 0.99% 0.20% 0.04% 0.01%
100 Christina McHale 1405 38.27% 5.73% 1.35% 0.21% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
101 Kristina Mladenovic 1544 34.90% 15.02% 4.82% 1.36% 0.35% 0.09% 0.02%
102 Johanna Konta 1652 65.10% 37.82% 16.90% 6.97% 2.68% 0.98% 0.31%
103 Sara Errani 1515 33.63% 12.23% 3.56% 0.90% 0.21% 0.04% 0.01%
104 Ekaterina Alexandrova 1633 66.37% 34.93% 14.80% 5.75% 2.07% 0.71% 0.21%
105 Victoria Azarenka 1768 78.26% 67.37% 40.80% 24.69% 13.31% 6.93% 3.20%
106 Tereza Martincova 1545 21.74% 13.75% 4.36% 1.39% 0.36% 0.09% 0.02%
107 Jasmine Paolini 1459 52.64% 10.31% 2.33% 0.53% 0.10% 0.02% 0.00%
108 Yaroslava Shvedova 1441 47.36% 8.56% 1.79% 0.38% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
109 Andrea Petkovic 1597 55.27% 18.31% 7.21% 2.76% 0.87% 0.26% 0.07%
110 Irina-Camelia Begu 1560 44.73% 12.89% 4.53% 1.53% 0.42% 0.11% 0.02%
111 Donna Vekic 1593 26.40% 13.67% 5.32% 2.00% 0.62% 0.18% 0.05%
112 Garbine Muguruza 1771 73.60% 55.13% 33.67% 20.51% 11.15% 5.85% 2.73%
113 Elise Mertens 1719 72.00% 60.50% 34.02% 16.30% 7.95% 3.61% 1.45%
114 Rebecca Peterson 1555 28.00% 18.81% 6.60% 1.85% 0.52% 0.13% 0.03%
115 Valentini Grammatikopoulou 1425 48.29% 9.72% 2.07% 0.34% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
116 Anna Blinkova 1437 51.71% 10.97% 2.45% 0.42% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
117 Ivana Jorovic 1447 36.65% 6.78% 1.89% 0.34% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
118 Maria Camila Osorio Serrano 1542 63.35% 17.63% 6.81% 1.82% 0.48% 0.12% 0.02%
119 Alize Cornet 1612 30.21% 19.43% 9.20% 3.16% 1.09% 0.35% 0.10%
120 Ons Jabeur 1757 69.79% 56.16% 36.95% 19.54% 10.54% 5.33% 2.39%
121 Danielle Collins 1719 66.83% 52.09% 24.27% 13.24% 6.46% 2.93% 1.18%
122 Carla Suarez Navarro 1597 33.17% 21.12% 6.78% 2.61% 0.86% 0.26% 0.07%
123 Heather Watson 1487 46.64% 11.86% 2.53% 0.65% 0.14% 0.03% 0.00%
124 Kaja Juvan 1511 53.36% 14.93% 3.49% 0.99% 0.23% 0.05% 0.01%
125 Bernada Pera 1482 37.09% 6.45% 1.97% 0.50% 0.10% 0.02% 0.00%
126 Tamara Zidansek 1574 62.91% 15.85% 6.62% 2.36% 0.71% 0.19% 0.05%
127 Nina Stojanovic 1481 12.59% 5.25% 1.60% 0.40% 0.08% 0.02% 0.00%
128 Aryna Sabalenka 1818 87.41% 72.45% 52.75% 35.48% 22.02% 12.96% 6.82%