The 2nd week of the US Open begins today, so it's time for me to update my predictions for the tournament, after the jump, I summarize what's happened so far, and present what I think is likely to happen for the rest of the event.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 3 of them are still in. Stefanos Tsitsipas lost in round 3 to Carlos Alcaraz.
- Felix Auger-Aliassime had the easiest overall draw at the start of the tournament, and he's still in the draw. Daniil Medvedev now has the easiest overall draw relative to his ranking.
- Andy Murray had the toughest overall draw and 1st round match, and lost in round 1 to Stefanos Tsitsipas as expected. Alexander Zverev now has the toughest overall draw.
- Facundo Bagnis had the easiest 1st round draw, and won his match against Taro Daniel before losing in round 3.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Novak Djokovic is the favourite for the title, with a 40.91% chance of winning the whole thing, with Daniil Medvedev 2nd at 21.41%. The 3rd most likely winner is Alexander Zverev with 18.34%, and 4th is Matteo Berrettini with 6.98%.
- As for the next match, it's Carlos Alcaraz who has the easiest next match, as he's 32.22 percentage points more likely to make it to the quarter finals than a player of his ranking would expect. Jannik Sinner has the toughest next match, as he's 46.57 percentage points less likely to win than his ranking would expect to do.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak Djokovic | 2019 | 92.02% | 71.74% | 52.50% | 40.91% |
| 2 | Jenson Brooksby | 1594 | 7.98% | 2.12% | 0.49% | 0.13% |
| 3 | Oscar Otte | 1518 | 14.48% | 1.16% | 0.19% | 0.04% |
| 4 | Matteo Berrettini | 1827 | 85.52% | 24.98% | 12.45% | 6.98% |
| 5 | Alexander Zverev | 1916 | 75.33% | 62.12% | 27.35% | 18.34% |
| 6 | Jannik Sinner | 1722 | 24.67% | 14.97% | 3.31% | 1.41% |
| 7 | Reilly Opelka | 1661 | 54.64% | 13.29% | 2.27% | 0.80% |
| 8 | Lloyd Harris | 1629 | 45.36% | 9.62% | 1.43% | 0.45% |
| 9 | Frances Tiafoe | 1629 | 38.92% | 21.25% | 5.90% | 0.93% |
| 10 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1707 | 61.08% | 39.86% | 14.62% | 3.24% |
| 11 | Peter Gojowczyk | 1549 | 39.03% | 12.72% | 2.56% | 0.28% |
| 12 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1626 | 60.97% | 26.16% | 7.20% | 1.13% |
| 13 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1553 | 28.75% | 5.02% | 1.84% | 0.20% |
| 14 | Diego Schwartzman | 1710 | 71.25% | 23.37% | 13.67% | 3.07% |
| 15 | Daniel Evans | 1635 | 18.84% | 8.63% | 4.14% | 0.67% |
| 16 | Daniil Medvedev | 1889 | 81.16% | 62.98% | 50.05% | 21.41% |
