The 2nd week of the US Open begins today, so it's time for me to update my predictions for the tournament, after the jump, I summarize what's happened so far, and present what I think is likely to happen for the rest of the event.
 |
| US Open logo, © US Open |
- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 2 of them are still in. Ashleigh Barty lost in round 3 to Shelby Rogers and Naomi Osaka lost in round 3 to Leylah Annie Fernandez.
- Karolina Pliskova had the easiest overall draw at the start of the tournament, and she's still in the draw. Belinda Bencic now has the easiest overall draw relative to her ranking. Garbine Muguruza had the toughest overall draw, but she is still in the tournament, and still has the toughest draw of the players remaining.
- Anna Blinkova had the easiest 1st round draw, and but she ended up losing to Valentini Grammatikopoulou. The player who had the toughest 1st round draw, Vera Zvonareva lost her first round match to Ashleigh Barty as expected.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Aryna Sabalenka is the favourite for the title, with a 14.19% chance of winning the whole thing, with Karolina Pliskova 2nd at 10.31%. The 3rd most likely winner is Simona Halep with 10.25%, and 4th is Iga Swiatek with 9.02%.
- As for the next match, it's Shelby Rogers who has the easiest next match, as she's 22.89 percentage points more likely to make it to the quarter finals than a player of her ranking would expect. Aryna Sabalenka has the toughest next match, as she's 10.72 percentage points less likely to win than her ranking would expect to do.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shelby Rogers | 1618 | 61.38% | 19.58% | 6.24% | 1.69% |
| 2 | Emma Raducanu | 1537 | 38.62% | 8.80% | 2.00% | 0.38% |
| 3 | Belinda Bencic | 1738 | 46.83% | 32.90% | 15.83% | 6.70% |
| 4 | Iga Swiatek | 1760 | 53.17% | 38.72% | 19.85% | 9.02% |
| 5 | Karolina Pliskova | 1786 | 61.51% | 34.58% | 21.01% | 10.31% |
| 6 | Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | 1704 | 38.49% | 17.16% | 8.52% | 3.22% |
| 7 | Maria Sakkari | 1759 | 55.51% | 28.13% | 16.09% | 7.29% |
| 8 | Bianca Andreescu | 1721 | 44.49% | 20.12% | 10.45% | 4.18% |
| 9 | Elina Svitolina | 1783 | 44.83% | 22.10% | 11.25% | 6.30% |
| 10 | Simona Halep | 1819 | 55.17% | 30.06% | 16.81% | 10.25% |
| 11 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1784 | 49.00% | 23.19% | 11.85% | 6.66% |
| 12 | Garbine Muguruza | 1791 | 51.00% | 24.64% | 12.82% | 7.33% |
| 13 | Angelique Kerber | 1763 | 73.72% | 33.25% | 15.04% | 8.00% |
| 14 | Leylah Annie Fernandez | 1584 | 26.28% | 6.02% | 1.37% | 0.40% |
| 15 | Elise Mertens | 1739 | 37.00% | 19.62% | 8.22% | 4.10% |
| 16 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1832 | 63.00% | 41.12% | 22.65% | 14.19% |
