Tomorrow, the 2nd Grand Slam tournament of the year, the French Open, begins. Let's take a look at the draw for this tournament, and my predictions for the tournament, including who's most likely to win, and full probabilities for how likely each player is to make it to each round.
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- Novak Djokovic is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 34.07% chance of winning the whole thing, with Daniil Medvedev next at 21.85%. The 3rd most likely is Carlos Alcaraz with 14.67% and Stefanos Tsitsipas is the 4th favourite with 4.46%
- Casper Ruud has the easiest overall draw, as he is 0.41 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Karen Khachanov has a tough draw. He is 0.27 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Laslo Djere, as he's 34.63 percentage points less likely to win than a player of his rank is expected to win. Daniel Altmaier got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's 37.41 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than his ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1941 | 93.08% | 84.97% | 74.69% | 61.71% | 45.72% | 23.56% | 14.67% |
| 2 | Flavio Cobolli | 1489 | 6.92% | 3.03% | 1.11% | 0.32% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Christopher O'Connell | 1538 | 51.52% | 6.32% | 2.71% | 0.94% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 4 | Taro Daniel | 1527 | 48.48% | 5.68% | 2.36% | 0.79% | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 5 | Matteo Arnaldi | 1512 | 55.65% | 18.71% | 2.60% | 0.82% | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Daniel Elahi Galan | 1473 | 44.35% | 12.76% | 1.50% | 0.41% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Brandon Nakashima | 1621 | 47.43% | 31.95% | 6.76% | 3.07% | 1.06% | 0.20% | 0.05% |
| 8 | Denis Shapovalov | 1639 | 52.57% | 36.58% | 8.27% | 3.95% | 1.44% | 0.29% | 0.07% |
| 9 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1653 | 63.42% | 43.84% | 21.18% | 5.73% | 2.19% | 0.47% | 0.13% |
| 10 | Mikael Ymer | 1557 | 36.58% | 20.61% | 7.49% | 1.43% | 0.39% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 11 | Alexander Shevchenko | 1512 | 49.80% | 17.66% | 5.51% | 0.88% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 12 | Oscar Otte | 1514 | 50.20% | 17.89% | 5.61% | 0.90% | 0.21% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Lucas Pouille | 1509 | 54.63% | 14.53% | 5.78% | 0.91% | 0.21% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 14 | Jurij Rodionov | 1476 | 45.37% | 10.66% | 3.79% | 0.52% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Benoit Paire | 1372 | 11.04% | 3.67% | 0.86% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 16 | Cameron Norrie | 1735 | 88.96% | 71.14% | 49.78% | 17.53% | 8.56% | 2.44% | 0.88% |
| 17 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1730 | 77.24% | 59.83% | 37.04% | 17.94% | 6.62% | 1.86% | 0.66% |
| 18 | Fabio Fognini | 1517 | 22.76% | 11.49% | 3.90% | 0.96% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Jason Kubler | 1536 | 57.20% | 17.75% | 6.44% | 1.70% | 0.31% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 20 | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 1485 | 42.80% | 10.93% | 3.30% | 0.72% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 21 | Sebastian Ofner | 1522 | 47.23% | 13.90% | 4.77% | 1.20% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 22 | Maxime Cressy | 1542 | 52.77% | 16.73% | 6.14% | 1.66% | 0.31% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 23 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1581 | 30.70% | 17.47% | 7.27% | 2.25% | 0.50% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 24 | Sebastian Korda | 1722 | 69.30% | 51.89% | 31.15% | 14.81% | 5.34% | 1.46% | 0.51% |
| 25 | Bernabe Zapata Miralles | 1554 | 51.80% | 23.58% | 5.99% | 2.10% | 0.42% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 26 | Diego Schwartzman | 1542 | 48.20% | 21.11% | 5.12% | 1.72% | 0.32% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 27 | John Isner | 1627 | 67.37% | 41.20% | 13.47% | 5.99% | 1.57% | 0.30% | 0.07% |
| 28 | Nuno Borges | 1501 | 32.63% | 14.12% | 2.93% | 0.85% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 29 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 1557 | 63.59% | 13.60% | 6.48% | 2.30% | 0.46% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 30 | Emilio Nava | 1461 | 36.41% | 5.17% | 1.78% | 0.44% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 31 | Jiri Vesely | 1500 | 12.21% | 5.71% | 2.26% | 0.65% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 32 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1842 | 87.79% | 75.51% | 61.97% | 44.70% | 22.51% | 8.97% | 4.46% |
| 33 | Novak Djokovic | 2032 | 95.60% | 89.88% | 83.00% | 75.08% | 63.74% | 46.80% | 34.07% |
| 34 | Aleksandar Kovacevic | 1497 | 4.40% | 1.89% | 0.70% | 0.24% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Marton Fucsovics | 1584 | 63.89% | 6.04% | 2.95% | 1.32% | 0.44% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 36 | Hugo Grenier | 1484 | 36.11% | 2.18% | 0.77% | 0.25% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 37 | Luca Van Assche | 1480 | 42.23% | 12.52% | 0.97% | 0.30% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 38 | Marco Cecchinato | 1535 | 57.77% | 21.12% | 2.06% | 0.79% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 39 | Arthur Fils | 1615 | 45.93% | 29.58% | 4.00% | 1.95% | 0.73% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 40 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1644 | 54.07% | 36.78% | 5.55% | 2.93% | 1.20% | 0.32% | 0.08% |
| 41 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1621 | 60.28% | 41.39% | 19.60% | 3.20% | 1.22% | 0.30% | 0.07% |
| 42 | Wu Yibing | 1548 | 39.72% | 23.47% | 8.90% | 1.09% | 0.32% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 43 | Shang Juncheng | 1471 | 46.54% | 15.58% | 4.48% | 0.40% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 44 | Juan Pablo Varillas | 1495 | 53.46% | 19.56% | 6.16% | 0.61% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 45 | Pedro Martinez | 1453 | 35.54% | 8.03% | 2.90% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 46 | Tallon Griekspoor | 1557 | 64.46% | 21.94% | 11.00% | 1.40% | 0.43% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 47 | David Goffin | 1553 | 27.37% | 14.94% | 7.41% | 0.93% | 0.28% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 48 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1723 | 72.63% | 55.09% | 39.55% | 9.28% | 4.76% | 1.68% | 0.58% |
| 49 | Karen Khachanov | 1744 | 82.34% | 66.63% | 46.13% | 25.71% | 7.22% | 2.74% | 1.02% |
| 50 | Constant Lestienne | 1477 | 17.66% | 8.42% | 2.80% | 0.68% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Patrick Kypson | 1489 | 48.84% | 11.99% | 4.17% | 1.07% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 52 | Radu Albot | 1497 | 51.16% | 12.96% | 4.64% | 1.22% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 53 | Stan Wawrinka | 1647 | 72.99% | 43.19% | 20.74% | 9.03% | 1.83% | 0.49% | 0.13% |
| 54 | Albert Ramos Vinolas | 1474 | 27.01% | 9.43% | 2.61% | 0.63% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 55 | Thanasi Kokkinakis | 1577 | 48.30% | 22.48% | 8.81% | 3.08% | 0.48% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 56 | Daniel Evans | 1588 | 51.70% | 24.90% | 10.11% | 3.68% | 0.60% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 57 | Ben Shelton | 1508 | 37.66% | 16.37% | 4.03% | 1.25% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 58 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1596 | 62.34% | 34.85% | 11.77% | 4.91% | 0.82% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 59 | Adrian Mannarino | 1580 | 58.92% | 30.88% | 9.89% | 3.92% | 0.62% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 60 | Ugo Humbert | 1517 | 41.08% | 17.90% | 4.57% | 1.46% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 61 | Arthur Cazaux | 1491 | 41.83% | 7.67% | 3.06% | 0.88% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Corentin Moutet | 1548 | 58.17% | 13.62% | 6.52% | 2.32% | 0.32% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 63 | Laslo Djere | 1584 | 21.02% | 12.31% | 6.53% | 2.63% | 0.42% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 64 | Andrey Rublev | 1814 | 78.98% | 66.39% | 53.63% | 37.53% | 13.06% | 6.10% | 2.81% |
| 65 | Holger Rune | 1819 | 87.43% | 66.37% | 54.55% | 36.77% | 26.45% | 11.58% | 4.10% |
| 66 | Christopher Eubanks | 1482 | 12.57% | 4.00% | 1.63% | 0.42% | 0.12% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 67 | Gael Monfils | 1650 | 62.59% | 20.72% | 13.26% | 6.06% | 3.04% | 0.75% | 0.14% |
| 68 | Sebastian Baez | 1560 | 37.41% | 8.91% | 4.61% | 1.59% | 0.60% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 69 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 1500 | 50.00% | 19.78% | 4.17% | 1.15% | 0.35% | 0.05% | 0.00% |
| 70 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 1500 | 50.00% | 19.78% | 4.17% | 1.15% | 0.35% | 0.05% | 0.00% |
| 71 | Andrea Vavassori | 1515 | 36.68% | 19.12% | 4.28% | 1.25% | 0.40% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 72 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1610 | 63.32% | 41.32% | 13.33% | 5.39% | 2.41% | 0.51% | 0.08% |
| 73 | Francisco Cerundolo | 1651 | 71.44% | 45.48% | 19.70% | 8.27% | 4.16% | 1.03% | 0.19% |
| 74 | Jaume Munar | 1491 | 28.56% | 11.89% | 2.97% | 0.72% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Thiago Monteiro | 1484 | 35.56% | 12.03% | 2.92% | 0.69% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 76 | Benjamin Bonzi | 1588 | 64.44% | 30.60% | 10.87% | 3.75% | 1.56% | 0.30% | 0.04% |
| 77 | Richard Gasquet | 1575 | 54.89% | 16.34% | 7.76% | 2.56% | 1.03% | 0.19% | 0.03% |
| 78 | Arthur Rinderknech | 1541 | 45.11% | 11.82% | 5.06% | 1.48% | 0.53% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 79 | Michael Mmoh | 1479 | 15.21% | 5.88% | 2.04% | 0.47% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 80 | Taylor Fritz | 1778 | 84.79% | 65.96% | 48.67% | 28.30% | 19.00% | 7.36% | 2.26% |
| 81 | Tommy Paul | 1692 | 70.97% | 45.66% | 30.36% | 17.05% | 7.61% | 2.20% | 0.49% |
| 82 | Dominic Stricker | 1537 | 29.03% | 12.64% | 5.70% | 2.03% | 0.53% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 83 | Nicolas Jarry | 1630 | 75.13% | 35.76% | 20.84% | 9.98% | 3.67% | 0.84% | 0.14% |
| 84 | Hugo Dellien | 1438 | 24.87% | 5.94% | 1.90% | 0.46% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 85 | Hamad Mededovic | 1462 | 35.07% | 11.23% | 3.10% | 0.84% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 86 | Marcos Giron | 1569 | 64.93% | 30.25% | 12.34% | 4.91% | 1.46% | 0.26% | 0.03% |
| 87 | Jiri Lehecka | 1586 | 48.12% | 27.71% | 11.94% | 5.01% | 1.58% | 0.30% | 0.04% |
| 88 | Jan-Lennard Struff | 1599 | 51.88% | 30.81% | 13.83% | 6.04% | 2.00% | 0.40% | 0.06% |
| 89 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1623 | 68.21% | 40.40% | 18.12% | 9.19% | 3.31% | 0.73% | 0.12% |
| 90 | Thiago Agustin Tirante | 1491 | 31.79% | 12.90% | 3.71% | 1.22% | 0.27% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Zhang Zhizhen | 1507 | 38.32% | 15.21% | 4.64% | 1.62% | 0.38% | 0.05% | 0.00% |
| 92 | Dusan Lajovic | 1589 | 61.68% | 31.49% | 12.74% | 5.86% | 1.87% | 0.36% | 0.05% |
| 93 | Alexander Bublik | 1576 | 64.89% | 22.66% | 11.26% | 4.97% | 1.51% | 0.28% | 0.04% |
| 94 | Giulio Zeppieri | 1469 | 35.11% | 8.27% | 2.91% | 0.88% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 95 | Elias Ymer | 1432 | 15.03% | 5.33% | 1.63% | 0.43% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 96 | Casper Ruud | 1733 | 84.97% | 63.73% | 45.00% | 29.50% | 14.78% | 4.94% | 1.29% |
| 97 | Jannik Sinner | 1835 | 85.60% | 76.83% | 57.67% | 37.72% | 17.23% | 11.23% | 4.19% |
| 98 | Alexandre Muller | 1526 | 14.40% | 8.59% | 3.01% | 0.81% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 99 | Daniel Altmaier | 1436 | 44.34% | 5.83% | 1.44% | 0.27% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 100 | Marc-Andrea Husler | 1475 | 55.66% | 8.75% | 2.53% | 0.55% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 101 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1630 | 64.77% | 30.91% | 10.58% | 4.12% | 0.99% | 0.38% | 0.07% |
| 102 | Gregoire Barrere | 1525 | 35.23% | 11.99% | 2.87% | 0.77% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 103 | Timofey Skatov | 1483 | 22.94% | 8.00% | 1.64% | 0.37% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 104 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1693 | 77.06% | 49.10% | 20.27% | 9.54% | 2.85% | 1.32% | 0.30% |
| 105 | Alexander Zverev | 1809 | 81.35% | 64.69% | 47.29% | 27.27% | 11.60% | 7.18% | 2.46% |
| 106 | Lloyd Harris | 1553 | 18.65% | 8.90% | 3.58% | 0.95% | 0.17% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 107 | Hugo Gaston | 1502 | 35.45% | 7.03% | 2.37% | 0.51% | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 108 | Alex Molcan | 1606 | 64.55% | 19.39% | 9.17% | 2.95% | 0.65% | 0.23% | 0.04% |
| 109 | Alexei Popyrin | 1529 | 47.72% | 15.63% | 4.11% | 0.99% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 110 | Aslan Karatsev | 1545 | 52.28% | 18.14% | 5.06% | 1.30% | 0.22% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 111 | Filip Krajinovic | 1534 | 27.19% | 13.48% | 3.61% | 0.89% | 0.15% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 112 | Frances Tiafoe | 1705 | 72.81% | 52.75% | 24.80% | 10.97% | 3.42% | 1.64% | 0.39% |
| 113 | Borna Coric | 1677 | 74.24% | 43.80% | 23.58% | 6.14% | 2.36% | 1.05% | 0.22% |
| 114 | Federico Coria | 1493 | 25.76% | 8.81% | 2.58% | 0.34% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Dominic Thiem | 1655 | 70.66% | 37.66% | 19.13% | 4.63% | 1.66% | 0.69% | 0.13% |
| 116 | Pedro Cachin | 1503 | 29.34% | 9.73% | 2.96% | 0.41% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 117 | Jack Draper | 1664 | 68.48% | 35.00% | 18.83% | 4.70% | 1.73% | 0.74% | 0.15% |
| 118 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 1530 | 31.52% | 10.34% | 3.67% | 0.56% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 119 | Ilya Ivashka | 1592 | 35.90% | 16.42% | 7.18% | 1.39% | 0.39% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 120 | Alex De Minaur | 1693 | 64.10% | 38.24% | 22.06% | 6.04% | 2.44% | 1.13% | 0.25% |
| 121 | Yoshihito Nishioka | 1606 | 52.08% | 35.12% | 6.18% | 2.68% | 0.80% | 0.28% | 0.04% |
| 122 | J. J. Wolf | 1591 | 47.92% | 31.43% | 5.24% | 2.17% | 0.61% | 0.20% | 0.03% |
| 123 | Max Purcell | 1484 | 51.44% | 17.52% | 1.92% | 0.53% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 124 | Jordan Thompson | 1474 | 48.56% | 15.92% | 1.67% | 0.45% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 125 | Quentin Halys | 1486 | 49.46% | 4.24% | 1.69% | 0.47% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 126 | Guido Pella | 1490 | 50.54% | 4.41% | 1.78% | 0.51% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 127 | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 1477 | 5.71% | 2.77% | 1.07% | 0.29% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 128 | Daniil Medvedev | 1964 | 94.29% | 88.59% | 80.45% | 68.70% | 51.41% | 40.69% | 21.85% |
