Tomorrow, the 2nd Grand Slam tournament of the year, the French Open, begins. Let's take a look at the draw for this tournament, and my predictions for the tournament, including who's most likely to win, and full probabilities for how likely each player is to make it to each round.
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- Iga Swiatek is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 29.78% chance of winning the whole thing, with Aryna Sabalenka next at 15.89%. The 3rd most likely is Elena Rybakina with 8.8% and Belinda Bencic is the 4th favourite with 5.67%
- Bencic also has the easiest overall draw, as she is 1.19 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. This comes at the expense of Jessica Pegula, the player with the toughest overall draw, as she is 1.19 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Marta Kostyuk, as she's 42.47 percentage points less likely to win than a player of her rank is expected to win. Storm Hunter got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's 32.23 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than her ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iga Swiatek | 1969 | 94.55% | 88.93% | 80.31% | 65.52% | 53.13% | 40.12% | 29.78% |
| 2 | Cristina Bucsa | 1473 | 5.45% | 2.63% | 0.95% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Ylena In-Albon | 1429 | 37.46% | 2.41% | 0.74% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Claire Liu | 1518 | 62.54% | 6.03% | 2.54% | 0.68% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 5 | Rebecca Peterson | 1559 | 55.49% | 25.54% | 3.66% | 1.16% | 0.36% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 6 | Fiona Ferro | 1521 | 44.51% | 18.16% | 2.24% | 0.61% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 7 | Wang Xinyu | 1488 | 30.55% | 12.93% | 1.40% | 0.33% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Marie Bouzkova | 1631 | 69.45% | 43.38% | 8.16% | 3.31% | 1.33% | 0.44% | 0.14% |
| 9 | Victoria Azarenka | 1715 | 53.96% | 35.73% | 18.98% | 5.49% | 2.82% | 1.23% | 0.52% |
| 10 | Bianca Andreescu | 1688 | 46.04% | 28.86% | 14.28% | 3.77% | 1.80% | 0.72% | 0.28% |
| 11 | Anna Kalinskaya | 1638 | 70.14% | 28.62% | 12.29% | 2.73% | 1.12% | 0.38% | 0.12% |
| 12 | Emma Navarro | 1490 | 29.86% | 6.78% | 1.73% | 0.22% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Zhu Lin | 1533 | 45.38% | 11.27% | 3.56% | 0.53% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 14 | Lauren Davis | 1565 | 54.62% | 15.45% | 5.50% | 0.93% | 0.30% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 15 | Lesia Tsurenko | 1615 | 28.12% | 16.66% | 7.04% | 1.44% | 0.55% | 0.17% | 0.05% |
| 16 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1779 | 71.88% | 56.62% | 36.63% | 12.92% | 7.73% | 4.03% | 2.04% |
| 17 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1757 | 86.96% | 73.97% | 50.40% | 31.34% | 11.04% | 5.44% | 2.60% |
| 18 | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | 1428 | 13.04% | 6.00% | 1.62% | 0.36% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Aliona Bolsova | 1458 | 50.83% | 10.30% | 3.12% | 0.79% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 20 | Kristina Kucova | 1452 | 49.17% | 9.73% | 2.88% | 0.71% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 21 | Kayla Day | 1444 | 43.62% | 10.14% | 2.36% | 0.56% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 22 | Kristina Mladenovic | 1488 | 56.38% | 15.78% | 4.33% | 1.23% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 23 | Kaia Kanepi | 1559 | 30.63% | 19.19% | 6.69% | 2.45% | 0.41% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 24 | Madison Keys | 1701 | 69.37% | 54.89% | 28.61% | 15.72% | 4.59% | 1.91% | 0.77% |
| 25 | Anhelina Kalinina | 1635 | 66.46% | 41.48% | 18.44% | 7.90% | 1.81% | 0.61% | 0.20% |
| 26 | Diane Parry | 1516 | 33.54% | 15.30% | 4.66% | 1.34% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 27 | Mirra Andreeva | 1532 | 46.08% | 18.99% | 6.11% | 1.86% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 28 | Alison Riske-Amritraj | 1560 | 53.92% | 24.23% | 8.55% | 2.86% | 0.48% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 29 | Arantxa Rus | 1456 | 41.21% | 8.19% | 2.73% | 0.62% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 30 | Julia Grabher | 1518 | 58.79% | 15.06% | 6.24% | 1.80% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 31 | Rebeka Masarova | 1512 | 19.18% | 10.14% | 4.13% | 1.16% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 32 | Coco Gauff | 1762 | 80.82% | 66.61% | 49.15% | 29.30% | 10.48% | 5.23% | 2.54% |
| 33 | Elena Rybakina | 1848 | 90.05% | 75.58% | 60.08% | 46.19% | 29.95% | 14.68% | 8.80% |
| 34 | Brenda Fruhvirtova | 1465 | 9.95% | 3.70% | 1.13% | 0.33% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Linda Noskova | 1589 | 61.67% | 14.34% | 6.74% | 3.00% | 0.94% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 36 | Danka Kovinic | 1507 | 38.33% | 6.38% | 2.28% | 0.77% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 37 | Clara Burel | 1530 | 41.17% | 14.40% | 3.16% | 1.16% | 0.29% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 38 | Sara Sorribes Tormo | 1592 | 58.83% | 25.58% | 7.09% | 3.18% | 1.00% | 0.21% | 0.06% |
| 39 | Petra Martic | 1637 | 49.87% | 29.90% | 9.71% | 4.95% | 1.83% | 0.46% | 0.15% |
| 40 | Shelby Rogers | 1638 | 50.13% | 30.12% | 9.81% | 5.01% | 1.86% | 0.46% | 0.15% |
| 41 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1688 | 80.86% | 62.07% | 38.02% | 15.93% | 6.94% | 2.08% | 0.81% |
| 42 | Viktoriya Tomova | 1438 | 19.14% | 8.49% | 2.42% | 0.40% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Nao Hibino | 1422 | 37.58% | 8.86% | 2.38% | 0.37% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 44 | Anna-Lena Friedsam | 1511 | 62.42% | 20.58% | 7.70% | 1.73% | 0.40% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 45 | Rebecca Marino | 1511 | 48.70% | 15.82% | 5.92% | 1.33% | 0.31% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 46 | Diana Shnaider | 1520 | 51.30% | 17.23% | 6.64% | 1.55% | 0.37% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 47 | Tatjana Maria | 1556 | 32.51% | 18.13% | 7.81% | 2.10% | 0.58% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 48 | Beatriz Haddad Maia | 1683 | 67.49% | 48.82% | 29.11% | 12.01% | 5.15% | 1.52% | 0.58% |
| 49 | Petra Kvitova | 1775 | 80.51% | 66.88% | 44.27% | 25.68% | 14.18% | 5.67% | 2.85% |
| 50 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto | 1529 | 19.49% | 10.58% | 3.49% | 0.99% | 0.25% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 51 | Simona Waltert | 1496 | 49.15% | 10.94% | 3.18% | 0.79% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 52 | Elizabeth Mandlik | 1502 | 50.85% | 11.60% | 3.45% | 0.88% | 0.20% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 53 | Anett Kontaveit | 1691 | 66.33% | 38.38% | 19.17% | 9.05% | 4.01% | 1.21% | 0.47% |
| 54 | Bernada Pera | 1573 | 33.67% | 14.13% | 5.01% | 1.65% | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 55 | Dayana Yastremska | 1484 | 24.66% | 6.95% | 1.80% | 0.43% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 56 | Donna Vekic | 1678 | 75.34% | 40.54% | 19.63% | 8.96% | 3.83% | 1.11% | 0.42% |
| 57 | Sorana Cirstea | 1655 | 64.37% | 45.73% | 18.53% | 8.14% | 3.24% | 0.86% | 0.30% |
| 58 | Jasmine Paolini | 1552 | 35.63% | 20.52% | 6.01% | 1.87% | 0.52% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 59 | Olga Danilovic | 1502 | 51.04% | 17.46% | 4.29% | 1.10% | 0.25% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 60 | Kateryna Baindl | 1495 | 48.96% | 16.30% | 3.90% | 0.97% | 0.22% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 61 | Selena Janicijevic | 1483 | 57.80% | 10.64% | 3.91% | 0.92% | 0.20% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Oceane Dodin | 1428 | 42.20% | 6.12% | 1.83% | 0.34% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 63 | Lucia Bronzetti | 1505 | 14.97% | 8.45% | 3.35% | 0.87% | 0.20% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 64 | Ons Jabeur | 1807 | 85.03% | 74.79% | 58.18% | 37.35% | 22.12% | 9.70% | 5.29% |
| 65 | Maria Sakkari | 1754 | 55.58% | 45.54% | 33.08% | 18.64% | 10.87% | 5.28% | 2.00% |
| 66 | Karolina Muchova | 1715 | 44.42% | 34.81% | 23.72% | 12.16% | 6.46% | 2.81% | 0.93% |
| 67 | Nadia Podoroska | 1505 | 54.34% | 11.35% | 4.56% | 1.18% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 68 | Jessika Ponchet | 1475 | 45.66% | 8.29% | 3.01% | 0.69% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 69 | Sara Errani | 1436 | 34.72% | 9.93% | 2.02% | 0.39% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 70 | Jil Teichmann | 1546 | 65.28% | 27.60% | 8.66% | 2.62% | 0.82% | 0.20% | 0.03% |
| 71 | Anna Bondar | 1482 | 27.87% | 12.92% | 3.18% | 0.75% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 72 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1647 | 72.13% | 49.55% | 21.77% | 9.24% | 4.06% | 1.43% | 0.37% |
| 73 | Magda Linette | 1617 | 52.27% | 27.37% | 10.02% | 4.29% | 1.72% | 0.54% | 0.12% |
| 74 | Leylah Fernandez | 1602 | 47.73% | 23.91% | 8.32% | 3.39% | 1.29% | 0.38% | 0.08% |
| 75 | Clara Tauson | 1582 | 44.98% | 20.67% | 6.74% | 2.58% | 0.91% | 0.25% | 0.05% |
| 76 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1617 | 55.02% | 28.05% | 10.24% | 4.38% | 1.75% | 0.55% | 0.13% |
| 77 | Leolia Jeanjean | 1487 | 45.17% | 8.63% | 2.89% | 0.79% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 78 | Kimberly Birrell | 1521 | 54.83% | 12.02% | 4.56% | 1.41% | 0.40% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 79 | Elina Avanesyan | 1472 | 13.11% | 5.93% | 1.88% | 0.48% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 80 | Belinda Bencic | 1801 | 86.89% | 73.42% | 55.34% | 37.01% | 23.78% | 12.98% | 5.67% |
| 81 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1696 | 79.87% | 51.61% | 32.29% | 16.19% | 7.64% | 3.14% | 0.97% |
| 82 | Katie Volynets | 1457 | 20.13% | 6.44% | 2.02% | 0.44% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | 1624 | 63.14% | 29.27% | 15.55% | 6.33% | 2.39% | 0.77% | 0.18% |
| 84 | Linda Fruhvirtova | 1531 | 36.86% | 12.68% | 5.15% | 1.52% | 0.41% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 85 | Mayar Sherif | 1508 | 52.74% | 17.39% | 5.68% | 1.54% | 0.38% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 86 | Madison Brengle | 1489 | 47.26% | 14.51% | 4.41% | 1.11% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 87 | Taylor Townsend | 1510 | 26.96% | 13.89% | 4.56% | 1.24% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 88 | Anastasia Potapova | 1683 | 73.04% | 54.21% | 30.34% | 14.70% | 6.69% | 2.64% | 0.78% |
| 89 | Elise Mertens | 1638 | 72.15% | 46.22% | 17.56% | 8.71% | 3.45% | 1.17% | 0.29% |
| 90 | Viktoria Hruncakova | 1473 | 27.85% | 11.35% | 2.26% | 0.64% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Caty McNally | 1536 | 49.47% | 20.87% | 5.43% | 1.95% | 0.54% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 92 | Ana Bogdan | 1539 | 50.53% | 21.57% | 5.70% | 2.07% | 0.58% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| 93 | Alize Cornet | 1552 | 37.12% | 8.52% | 3.97% | 1.51% | 0.44% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 94 | Camila Giorgi | 1643 | 62.88% | 20.91% | 12.38% | 6.24% | 2.51% | 0.87% | 0.22% |
| 95 | Danielle Collins | 1681 | 32.41% | 19.46% | 12.50% | 6.95% | 3.14% | 1.23% | 0.36% |
| 96 | Jessica Pegula | 1809 | 67.59% | 51.12% | 40.21% | 28.86% | 17.96% | 10.00% | 4.48% |
| 97 | Caroline Garcia | 1714 | 71.24% | 54.76% | 36.53% | 19.25% | 8.30% | 4.00% | 1.32% |
| 98 | Wang Xiyu | 1556 | 28.76% | 16.51% | 7.61% | 2.42% | 0.62% | 0.18% | 0.03% |
| 99 | Anna Blinkova | 1527 | 57.67% | 18.04% | 7.62% | 2.16% | 0.50% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 100 | Ysaline Bonaventure | 1473 | 42.33% | 10.70% | 3.78% | 0.86% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 101 | Nuria Parrizas Diaz | 1490 | 62.33% | 19.93% | 6.43% | 1.58% | 0.31% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 102 | Storm Hunter | 1403 | 37.67% | 8.42% | 1.93% | 0.32% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 103 | Elina Svitolina | 1667 | 68.02% | 52.16% | 28.72% | 13.29% | 4.99% | 2.09% | 0.58% |
| 104 | Martina Trevisan | 1536 | 31.98% | 19.49% | 7.37% | 2.17% | 0.52% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| 105 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1732 | 79.04% | 56.75% | 31.51% | 19.91% | 9.03% | 4.58% | 1.61% |
| 106 | Tereza Martincova | 1502 | 20.96% | 8.47% | 2.20% | 0.73% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 107 | Peyton Stearns | 1543 | 43.29% | 13.67% | 4.17% | 1.59% | 0.39% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 108 | Katerina Siniakova | 1589 | 56.71% | 21.11% | 7.65% | 3.38% | 0.98% | 0.32% | 0.06% |
| 109 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1739 | 77.35% | 48.07% | 29.26% | 18.74% | 8.66% | 4.47% | 1.61% |
| 110 | Alycia Parks | 1526 | 22.65% | 7.66% | 2.52% | 0.91% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 111 | Jule Niemeier | 1509 | 25.56% | 6.90% | 2.14% | 0.72% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 112 | Daria Kasatkina | 1695 | 74.44% | 37.36% | 20.54% | 11.98% | 4.89% | 2.23% | 0.69% |
| 113 | Karolina Pliskova | 1705 | 67.88% | 49.16% | 30.94% | 12.65% | 6.67% | 3.14% | 1.00% |
| 114 | Sloane Stephens | 1575 | 32.12% | 17.91% | 8.09% | 2.23% | 0.79% | 0.24% | 0.05% |
| 115 | Varvara Gracheva | 1571 | 64.57% | 24.10% | 10.75% | 2.92% | 1.01% | 0.30% | 0.06% |
| 116 | Dalma Galfi | 1467 | 35.43% | 8.83% | 2.75% | 0.51% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 117 | Yulia Putintseva | 1602 | 65.04% | 30.52% | 14.14% | 4.26% | 1.65% | 0.55% | 0.12% |
| 118 | Maryna Zanevska | 1494 | 34.96% | 11.46% | 3.71% | 0.77% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 119 | Tamara Zidansek | 1509 | 28.42% | 11.98% | 4.09% | 0.89% | 0.24% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 120 | Zheng Qinwen | 1669 | 71.58% | 46.03% | 25.53% | 9.43% | 4.50% | 1.90% | 0.53% |
| 121 | Zhang Shuai | 1565 | 59.85% | 36.66% | 8.46% | 3.43% | 1.17% | 0.34% | 0.06% |
| 122 | Magdalena Frech | 1496 | 40.15% | 20.66% | 3.66% | 1.16% | 0.30% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 123 | Sara Bejlek | 1490 | 51.31% | 22.22% | 3.84% | 1.19% | 0.30% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 124 | Kamilla Rakhimova | 1481 | 48.69% | 20.46% | 3.41% | 1.02% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 125 | Panna Udvardy | 1422 | 39.92% | 3.83% | 1.41% | 0.33% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 126 | Iryna Shymanovich | 1493 | 60.08% | 8.09% | 3.77% | 1.18% | 0.30% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 127 | Marta Kostyuk | 1619 | 17.61% | 12.45% | 7.98% | 3.82% | 1.56% | 0.56% | 0.13% |
| 128 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1887 | 82.39% | 75.63% | 67.47% | 54.22% | 40.95% | 28.93% | 15.89% |
