The 1st round of the French Open has finished, so let's take a look at how those results impacted my ratings of the players still in, and also how well I expect them to do for the rest of the tournament.
 |
| French Open logo, © French Open |
View my pre-tournament predictions for the
Men and the
Women here. Who's doing better so far, the top players, or the lower ranked players? Some stats I calculated for the top 150 players:
| Rank | ± Men | ± Wmn |
|---|
| 1-10 | 0 | -46 |
| 11-20 | 14 | -9 |
| 21-50 | 19 | 23 |
| 51-100 | -42 | 34 |
| 101-150 | -15 | -31 |
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Now, my latest Men's ratings and predictions:
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Carlos Alcaraz |
1942 |
91.14% |
79.16% |
64.38% |
46.98% |
24.08% |
17.56% |
| 2 |
Taro Daniel |
1537 |
8.86% |
3.58% |
1.13% |
0.28% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 3 |
Matteo Arnaldi |
1521 |
32.45% |
3.77% |
1.12% |
0.26% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 4 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1648 |
67.55% |
13.49% |
6.20% |
2.27% |
0.46% |
0.16% |
| 5 |
Lorenzo Musetti |
1660 |
68.87% |
31.53% |
7.89% |
3.00% |
0.63% |
0.23% |
| 6 |
Alexander Shevchenko |
1522 |
31.13% |
8.93% |
1.29% |
0.30% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 7 |
Lucas Pouille |
1518 |
22.05% |
8.03% |
1.14% |
0.26% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 8 |
Cameron Norrie |
1737 |
77.95% |
51.51% |
16.83% |
8.04% |
2.25% |
1.04% |
| 9 |
Fabio Fognini |
1533 |
48.35% |
14.85% |
3.56% |
0.59% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 10 |
Jason Kubler |
1544 |
51.65% |
16.56% |
4.15% |
0.72% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 11 |
Sebastian Ofner |
1533 |
24.49% |
12.04% |
2.89% |
0.48% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 12 |
Sebastian Korda |
1729 |
75.51% |
56.55% |
25.68% |
8.96% |
2.43% |
1.10% |
| 13 |
Diego Schwartzman |
1552 |
55.38% |
11.66% |
4.40% |
0.79% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
| 14 |
Nuno Borges |
1515 |
44.62% |
8.02% |
2.65% |
0.41% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 15 |
Roberto Carballes Baena |
1565 |
16.64% |
9.02% |
3.54% |
0.67% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 16 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1845 |
83.36% |
71.30% |
53.13% |
25.99% |
10.27% |
6.27% |
| 17 |
Novak Djokovic |
2033 |
92.72% |
84.91% |
75.52% |
62.92% |
45.66% |
37.32% |
| 18 |
Marton Fucsovics |
1591 |
7.28% |
3.46% |
1.41% |
0.44% |
0.09% |
0.03% |
| 19 |
Luca Van Assche |
1492 |
28.36% |
1.86% |
0.53% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 20 |
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina |
1653 |
71.64% |
9.76% |
4.80% |
1.85% |
0.49% |
0.17% |
| 21 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1628 |
67.10% |
28.54% |
4.36% |
1.55% |
0.37% |
0.12% |
| 22 |
Juan Pablo Varillas |
1505 |
32.90% |
8.95% |
0.81% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 23 |
Tallon Griekspoor |
1564 |
28.00% |
13.06% |
1.53% |
0.43% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 24 |
Hubert Hurkacz |
1728 |
72.00% |
49.45% |
11.03% |
5.34% |
1.84% |
0.83% |
| 25 |
Karen Khachanov |
1748 |
80.01% |
53.39% |
27.40% |
7.47% |
2.75% |
1.32% |
| 26 |
Radu Albot |
1507 |
19.99% |
6.73% |
1.57% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 27 |
Stan Wawrinka |
1652 |
59.34% |
25.67% |
10.07% |
1.95% |
0.51% |
0.18% |
| 28 |
Thanasi Kokkinakis |
1587 |
40.66% |
14.21% |
4.48% |
0.67% |
0.14% |
0.04% |
| 29 |
Lorenzo Sonego |
1603 |
60.52% |
17.36% |
6.76% |
1.08% |
0.23% |
0.07% |
| 30 |
Ugo Humbert |
1529 |
39.48% |
8.44% |
2.52% |
0.30% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 31 |
Corentin Moutet |
1556 |
18.09% |
8.58% |
2.83% |
0.37% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 32 |
Andrey Rublev |
1819 |
81.91% |
65.62% |
44.37% |
15.18% |
6.95% |
4.00% |
| 33 |
Holger Rune |
1821 |
71.97% |
61.21% |
39.60% |
27.71% |
16.49% |
5.83% |
| 34 |
Gael Monfils |
1657 |
28.03% |
19.31% |
8.27% |
4.02% |
1.52% |
0.29% |
| 35 |
Genaro Alberto Olivieri |
1510 |
47.50% |
8.88% |
2.23% |
0.66% |
0.14% |
0.01% |
| 36 |
Andrea Vavassori |
1527 |
52.50% |
10.61% |
2.86% |
0.91% |
0.21% |
0.02% |
| 37 |
Francisco Cerundolo |
1656 |
56.90% |
22.47% |
9.01% |
4.36% |
1.64% |
0.31% |
| 38 |
Yannick Hanfmann |
1608 |
43.10% |
14.45% |
4.96% |
2.08% |
0.66% |
0.10% |
| 39 |
Arthur Rinderknech |
1552 |
21.11% |
8.08% |
2.28% |
0.79% |
0.20% |
0.02% |
| 40 |
Taylor Fritz |
1781 |
78.89% |
55.00% |
30.79% |
20.03% |
10.86% |
3.34% |
| 41 |
Tommy Paul |
1698 |
58.89% |
38.52% |
21.42% |
9.19% |
3.95% |
0.88% |
| 42 |
Nicolas Jarry |
1635 |
41.11% |
23.39% |
11.11% |
3.88% |
1.36% |
0.23% |
| 43 |
Marcos Giron |
1576 |
47.08% |
17.25% |
6.89% |
1.94% |
0.55% |
0.07% |
| 44 |
Jiri Lehecka |
1596 |
52.92% |
20.84% |
8.86% |
2.69% |
0.82% |
0.12% |
| 45 |
Thiago Agustin Tirante |
1504 |
47.89% |
12.90% |
4.08% |
0.85% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
| 46 |
Zhang Zhizhen |
1519 |
52.11% |
14.84% |
4.96% |
1.11% |
0.25% |
0.02% |
| 47 |
Giulio Zeppieri |
1482 |
18.81% |
8.60% |
2.49% |
0.47% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 48 |
Casper Ruud |
1736 |
81.19% |
63.66% |
40.19% |
19.31% |
9.30% |
2.42% |
| 49 |
Jannik Sinner |
1838 |
90.50% |
65.20% |
40.75% |
30.90% |
19.66% |
7.35% |
| 50 |
Daniel Altmaier |
1447 |
9.50% |
2.05% |
0.34% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 51 |
Emil Ruusuvuori |
1637 |
41.41% |
11.92% |
4.27% |
2.17% |
0.80% |
0.14% |
| 52 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1698 |
58.59% |
20.84% |
9.09% |
5.36% |
2.40% |
0.54% |
| 53 |
Alexander Zverev |
1813 |
75.93% |
52.58% |
28.66% |
20.96% |
12.64% |
4.34% |
| 54 |
Alex Molcan |
1613 |
24.07% |
10.27% |
2.98% |
1.41% |
0.48% |
0.07% |
| 55 |
Aslan Karatsev |
1554 |
28.90% |
6.94% |
1.59% |
0.63% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
| 56 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1711 |
71.10% |
30.20% |
12.34% |
7.49% |
3.49% |
0.82% |
| 57 |
Borna Coric |
1682 |
72.15% |
38.75% |
26.29% |
9.60% |
4.10% |
0.86% |
| 58 |
Pedro Cachin |
1517 |
27.85% |
8.84% |
4.03% |
0.76% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
| 59 |
Tomas Martin Etcheverry |
1543 |
28.90% |
10.79% |
5.31% |
1.12% |
0.29% |
0.03% |
| 60 |
Alex De Minaur |
1700 |
71.10% |
41.61% |
29.10% |
11.28% |
5.08% |
1.15% |
| 61 |
Yoshihito Nishioka |
1615 |
66.81% |
44.30% |
19.35% |
5.51% |
1.88% |
0.30% |
| 62 |
Max Purcell |
1494 |
33.19% |
16.41% |
4.64% |
0.78% |
0.17% |
0.01% |
| 63 |
Guido Pella |
1499 |
50.50% |
19.96% |
5.77% |
1.00% |
0.22% |
0.02% |
| 64 |
Thiago Seyboth Wild |
1496 |
49.50% |
19.33% |
5.51% |
0.94% |
0.20% |
0.02% |
And my latest Women's ratings and predictions:
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Iga Swiatek |
1970 |
92.80% |
85.44% |
73.71% |
60.52% |
45.54% |
33.42% |
| 2 |
Claire Liu |
1525 |
7.20% |
3.43% |
1.17% |
0.35% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 3 |
Rebecca Peterson |
1568 |
59.39% |
7.37% |
2.93% |
1.00% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
| 4 |
Wang Xinyu |
1502 |
40.61% |
3.76% |
1.18% |
0.32% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 5 |
Bianca Andreescu |
1699 |
75.86% |
47.72% |
12.02% |
6.14% |
2.52% |
0.99% |
| 6 |
Emma Navarro |
1500 |
24.14% |
8.49% |
1.00% |
0.27% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 7 |
Lauren Davis |
1574 |
42.04% |
16.60% |
2.64% |
0.92% |
0.24% |
0.06% |
| 8 |
Lesia Tsurenko |
1630 |
57.96% |
27.19% |
5.35% |
2.25% |
0.73% |
0.23% |
| 9 |
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova |
1445 |
46.72% |
11.17% |
2.50% |
0.26% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 10 |
Aliona Bolsova |
1468 |
53.28% |
13.95% |
3.43% |
0.39% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 11 |
Kayla Day |
1455 |
18.96% |
9.41% |
2.20% |
0.24% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 12 |
Madison Keys |
1707 |
81.04% |
65.47% |
34.83% |
10.13% |
4.28% |
1.73% |
| 13 |
Diane Parry |
1530 |
48.08% |
12.72% |
4.85% |
0.72% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
| 14 |
Mirra Andreeva |
1543 |
51.92% |
14.46% |
5.75% |
0.91% |
0.21% |
0.05% |
| 15 |
Julia Grabher |
1526 |
20.05% |
9.72% |
3.66% |
0.54% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 16 |
Coco Gauff |
1766 |
79.95% |
63.10% |
42.77% |
15.06% |
7.54% |
3.63% |
| 17 |
Elena Rybakina |
1850 |
81.09% |
63.46% |
47.18% |
31.33% |
14.96% |
8.84% |
| 18 |
Linda Noskova |
1597 |
18.91% |
8.65% |
3.57% |
1.23% |
0.25% |
0.07% |
| 19 |
Sara Sorribes Tormo |
1600 |
43.28% |
10.85% |
4.52% |
1.57% |
0.33% |
0.09% |
| 20 |
Petra Martic |
1647 |
56.72% |
17.03% |
8.20% |
3.32% |
0.83% |
0.27% |
| 21 |
Ekaterina Alexandrova |
1692 |
73.09% |
41.29% |
16.56% |
7.65% |
2.26% |
0.87% |
| 22 |
Anna-Lena Friedsam |
1518 |
26.91% |
8.94% |
1.90% |
0.49% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 23 |
Diana Shnaider |
1530 |
28.54% |
9.86% |
2.19% |
0.59% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 24 |
Beatriz Haddad Maia |
1689 |
71.46% |
39.91% |
15.88% |
7.28% |
2.13% |
0.81% |
| 25 |
Elisabetta Cocciaretto |
1545 |
55.57% |
19.91% |
5.37% |
1.36% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
| 26 |
Simona Waltert |
1506 |
44.43% |
13.75% |
3.20% |
0.69% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 27 |
Bernada Pera |
1586 |
36.35% |
21.18% |
6.62% |
1.96% |
0.39% |
0.10% |
| 28 |
Donna Vekic |
1683 |
63.65% |
45.16% |
19.25% |
7.97% |
2.28% |
0.85% |
| 29 |
Jasmine Paolini |
1565 |
57.52% |
14.20% |
6.20% |
1.70% |
0.31% |
0.07% |
| 30 |
Olga Danilovic |
1512 |
42.48% |
8.52% |
3.12% |
0.69% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 31 |
Oceane Dodin |
1440 |
10.62% |
3.79% |
1.06% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 32 |
Ons Jabeur |
1810 |
89.38% |
73.49% |
55.19% |
32.02% |
13.71% |
7.38% |
| 33 |
Karolina Muchova |
1727 |
77.24% |
50.83% |
36.24% |
18.45% |
7.67% |
2.54% |
| 34 |
Nadia Podoroska |
1514 |
22.76% |
8.58% |
3.68% |
0.90% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
| 35 |
Sara Errani |
1449 |
23.63% |
5.27% |
1.80% |
0.33% |
0.05% |
0.00% |
| 36 |
Irina-Camelia Begu |
1653 |
76.37% |
35.32% |
21.94% |
8.99% |
2.92% |
0.74% |
| 37 |
Leylah Fernandez |
1612 |
52.79% |
35.05% |
14.78% |
5.27% |
1.47% |
0.32% |
| 38 |
Clara Tauson |
1593 |
47.21% |
30.15% |
11.94% |
3.97% |
1.03% |
0.20% |
| 39 |
Leolia Jeanjean |
1498 |
51.23% |
18.11% |
5.09% |
1.16% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
| 40 |
Elina Avanesyan |
1489 |
48.77% |
16.70% |
4.54% |
1.00% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
| 41 |
Liudmila Samsonova |
1700 |
59.75% |
34.51% |
15.74% |
9.09% |
3.47% |
1.05% |
| 42 |
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova |
1632 |
40.25% |
19.47% |
7.14% |
3.46% |
1.04% |
0.24% |
| 43 |
Mayar Sherif |
1518 |
27.23% |
7.97% |
1.90% |
0.64% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 44 |
Anastasia Potapova |
1689 |
72.77% |
38.05% |
16.77% |
9.42% |
3.47% |
1.00% |
| 45 |
Elise Mertens |
1643 |
55.09% |
18.28% |
8.50% |
4.25% |
1.34% |
0.33% |
| 46 |
Camila Osorio |
1608 |
44.91% |
13.02% |
5.41% |
2.45% |
0.67% |
0.14% |
| 47 |
Camila Giorgi |
1651 |
27.93% |
14.90% |
7.08% |
3.61% |
1.17% |
0.29% |
| 48 |
Jessica Pegula |
1815 |
72.07% |
53.80% |
37.48% |
27.02% |
14.36% |
6.32% |
| 49 |
Caroline Garcia |
1719 |
74.27% |
45.95% |
23.04% |
9.16% |
4.75% |
1.54% |
| 50 |
Anna Blinkova |
1535 |
25.73% |
9.69% |
2.54% |
0.53% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
| 51 |
Storm Hunter |
1415 |
18.47% |
3.62% |
0.55% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 52 |
Elina Svitolina |
1673 |
81.53% |
40.75% |
17.80% |
6.14% |
2.80% |
0.77% |
| 53 |
Jelena Ostapenko |
1736 |
74.08% |
38.31% |
22.45% |
9.38% |
5.09% |
1.74% |
| 54 |
Peyton Stearns |
1554 |
25.92% |
7.08% |
2.41% |
0.54% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
| 55 |
Marketa Vondrousova |
1744 |
56.29% |
32.21% |
19.20% |
8.19% |
4.52% |
1.59% |
| 56 |
Daria Kasatkina |
1700 |
43.71% |
22.40% |
12.01% |
4.50% |
2.21% |
0.67% |
| 57 |
Sloane Stephens |
1589 |
51.53% |
21.44% |
5.06% |
1.71% |
0.59% |
0.11% |
| 58 |
Varvara Gracheva |
1578 |
48.47% |
19.45% |
4.42% |
1.44% |
0.48% |
0.09% |
| 59 |
Yulia Putintseva |
1609 |
40.66% |
21.83% |
5.54% |
2.02% |
0.75% |
0.16% |
| 60 |
Zheng Qinwen |
1675 |
59.34% |
37.28% |
11.80% |
5.35% |
2.45% |
0.67% |
| 61 |
Magdalena Frech |
1508 |
52.38% |
7.28% |
2.49% |
0.61% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
| 62 |
Kamilla Rakhimova |
1491 |
47.62% |
6.15% |
1.98% |
0.45% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
| 63 |
Iryna Shymanovich |
1501 |
9.60% |
4.81% |
1.60% |
0.38% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 64 |
Aryna Sabalenka |
1891 |
90.40% |
81.76% |
67.10% |
49.54% |
36.36% |
19.54% |
