The 1st Grand Slam of the season is starting on Monday, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Men's bracket will turn out. After the jump I present a table for percentages for all 128 players and how they will do.
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But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Rafael Nadal is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 32.14% chance of winning the whole thing, with Novak Djokovic next at 21.85%. The 3rd most likely is Roger Federer with 19.58% and Dominic Thiem 4th with 4.63%
- Daniil Medvedev has the easiest overall draw, as he is 1.05 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Stefanos Tsitsipas has a tough draw. He is 1.09 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Jan-Lennard Struff, as he's 56.58 percentage points less likely to win than a player of his rank is expected to win. Tatsuma Ito got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's 38.08 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than his ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Rafael Nadal |
2017 |
95.71% |
90.85% |
82.51% |
74.16% |
59.83% |
49.11% |
32.14% |
| 2 |
Hugo Dellien |
1478 |
4.29% |
1.97% |
0.68% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 3 |
Federico Delbonis |
1471 |
41.28% |
2.49% |
0.83% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 4 |
Joao Sousa |
1532 |
58.72% |
4.69% |
1.92% |
0.73% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 5 |
Christopher Eubanks |
1437 |
38.46% |
10.05% |
0.69% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 6 |
Peter Gojowczyk |
1519 |
61.54% |
21.71% |
2.09% |
0.75% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 7 |
Jozef Kovalik |
1431 |
19.55% |
8.23% |
0.55% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 8 |
Pablo Carreno Busta |
1677 |
80.45% |
60.02% |
10.73% |
6.13% |
2.48% |
1.02% |
0.25% |
| 9 |
Nick Kyrgios |
1701 |
75.55% |
53.91% |
35.51% |
7.94% |
3.46% |
1.53% |
0.41% |
| 10 |
Lorenzo Sonego |
1505 |
24.45% |
10.91% |
4.36% |
0.46% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 11 |
Pablo Cuevas |
1534 |
47.84% |
16.36% |
7.18% |
0.85% |
0.21% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 12 |
Gilles Simon |
1549 |
52.16% |
18.81% |
8.63% |
1.09% |
0.28% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 13 |
Yasutaka Uchiyama |
1502 |
55.87% |
19.47% |
6.62% |
0.69% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 14 |
Mikael Ymer |
1461 |
44.13% |
13.20% |
3.85% |
0.33% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 15 |
Mario Vilella Martinez |
1500 |
28.41% |
14.84% |
5.01% |
0.51% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 16 |
Karen Khachanov |
1661 |
71.59% |
52.49% |
28.84% |
5.58% |
2.15% |
0.84% |
0.19% |
| 17 |
Gael Monfils |
1681 |
76.28% |
57.94% |
37.10% |
13.72% |
3.24% |
1.35% |
0.34% |
| 18 |
Yen-Hsun Lu |
1478 |
23.72% |
11.76% |
4.31% |
0.72% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 19 |
Ivo Karlovic |
1473 |
47.71% |
14.00% |
5.03% |
0.82% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 20 |
Vasek Pospisil |
1489 |
52.29% |
16.30% |
6.19% |
1.09% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 21 |
James Duckworth |
1434 |
30.85% |
9.33% |
2.76% |
0.38% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 22 |
Aljaz Bedene |
1575 |
69.15% |
33.40% |
15.69% |
3.94% |
0.63% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
| 23 |
Ernests Gulbis |
1457 |
26.71% |
10.62% |
3.41% |
0.52% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 24 |
Felix Auger-Aliassime |
1633 |
73.29% |
46.66% |
25.50% |
7.97% |
1.58% |
0.56% |
0.12% |
| 25 |
Taylor Fritz |
1595 |
62.69% |
20.03% |
5.67% |
2.74% |
0.47% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 26 |
Tallon Griekspoor |
1505 |
37.31% |
8.48% |
1.69% |
0.62% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 27 |
Ilya Ivashka |
1479 |
15.16% |
5.84% |
1.05% |
0.35% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 28 |
Kevin Anderson |
1778 |
84.84% |
65.66% |
32.74% |
23.54% |
7.64% |
4.19% |
1.48% |
| 29 |
Alex Bolt |
1453 |
28.70% |
3.69% |
0.78% |
0.24% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 30 |
Albert Ramos Vinolas |
1611 |
71.30% |
18.11% |
6.91% |
3.49% |
0.64% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
| 31 |
Adrian Mannarino |
1585 |
17.20% |
9.02% |
3.15% |
1.48% |
0.24% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 32 |
Dominic Thiem |
1858 |
82.80% |
69.19% |
48.00% |
38.39% |
15.73% |
10.27% |
4.63% |
| 33 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1834 |
84.65% |
74.38% |
56.31% |
40.68% |
27.54% |
10.91% |
4.60% |
| 34 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1537 |
15.35% |
8.74% |
3.43% |
1.17% |
0.34% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 35 |
Dominik Koepfer |
1509 |
56.48% |
10.34% |
3.69% |
1.14% |
0.30% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 36 |
Pedro Martinez |
1463 |
43.52% |
6.54% |
1.99% |
0.51% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 37 |
Hugo Gaston |
1489 |
51.36% |
14.68% |
3.10% |
0.89% |
0.21% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 38 |
Jaume Munar |
1480 |
48.64% |
13.41% |
2.73% |
0.75% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 39 |
Alexei Popyrin |
1481 |
21.61% |
10.70% |
2.19% |
0.61% |
0.14% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 40 |
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga |
1705 |
78.39% |
61.20% |
26.55% |
14.93% |
7.59% |
1.96% |
0.54% |
| 41 |
John Isner |
1680 |
80.82% |
59.71% |
31.56% |
13.07% |
6.19% |
1.46% |
0.36% |
| 42 |
Thiago Monteiro |
1430 |
19.18% |
7.71% |
1.75% |
0.29% |
0.05% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 43 |
Alejandro Tabilo |
1500 |
50.25% |
16.42% |
4.92% |
1.09% |
0.27% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 44 |
Daniel Elahi Galan |
1498 |
49.75% |
16.16% |
4.81% |
1.05% |
0.26% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 45 |
Miomir Kecmanovic |
1571 |
54.68% |
18.82% |
8.61% |
2.49% |
0.83% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
| 46 |
Andreas Seppi |
1539 |
45.32% |
13.87% |
5.75% |
1.47% |
0.43% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 47 |
Damir Dzumhur |
1506 |
20.90% |
8.94% |
3.33% |
0.75% |
0.19% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 48 |
Stan Wawrinka |
1737 |
79.10% |
58.38% |
39.26% |
19.09% |
10.52% |
3.05% |
0.94% |
| 49 |
David Goffin |
1718 |
63.51% |
46.06% |
26.22% |
14.85% |
7.00% |
1.90% |
0.55% |
| 50 |
Jeremy Chardy |
1622 |
36.49% |
22.00% |
9.83% |
4.32% |
1.50% |
0.28% |
0.06% |
| 51 |
Pierre-Hugues Herbert |
1564 |
54.80% |
18.52% |
6.97% |
2.55% |
0.72% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 52 |
Cameron Norrie |
1531 |
45.20% |
13.42% |
4.53% |
1.48% |
0.37% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 53 |
Yuichi Sugita |
1459 |
45.84% |
9.87% |
2.62% |
0.65% |
0.12% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 54 |
Elliot Benchetrit |
1488 |
54.16% |
13.12% |
3.90% |
1.08% |
0.22% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 55 |
Christopher O'Connell |
1485 |
18.17% |
9.35% |
2.75% |
0.75% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 56 |
Andrey Rublev |
1746 |
81.83% |
67.66% |
43.17% |
26.03% |
13.25% |
3.97% |
1.26% |
| 57 |
Nikoloz Basilashvili |
1621 |
67.47% |
40.24% |
16.52% |
6.91% |
2.40% |
0.45% |
0.09% |
| 58 |
Kwon Soon-Woo |
1494 |
32.53% |
13.74% |
3.63% |
0.97% |
0.21% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 59 |
Fernando Verdasco |
1594 |
70.55% |
36.69% |
13.86% |
5.32% |
1.68% |
0.28% |
0.05% |
| 60 |
Evgeny Donskoy |
1442 |
29.45% |
9.33% |
2.01% |
0.43% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 61 |
Casper Ruud |
1526 |
44.02% |
11.48% |
4.92% |
1.49% |
0.36% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 62 |
Egor Gerasimov |
1568 |
55.98% |
17.04% |
8.29% |
2.91% |
0.83% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 63 |
Marco Cecchinato |
1451 |
14.20% |
5.14% |
1.70% |
0.38% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 64 |
Alexander Zverev |
1763 |
85.80% |
66.35% |
49.08% |
29.88% |
15.88% |
5.04% |
1.70% |
| 65 |
Matteo Berrettini |
1738 |
79.77% |
63.95% |
44.67% |
31.28% |
11.80% |
4.21% |
1.32% |
| 66 |
Andrew Harris |
1500 |
20.23% |
10.24% |
3.89% |
1.50% |
0.24% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 67 |
Tennys Sandgren |
1502 |
51.93% |
13.74% |
5.25% |
2.03% |
0.33% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 68 |
Marco Trungelliti |
1489 |
48.07% |
12.06% |
4.40% |
1.63% |
0.25% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 69 |
Roberto Carballes Baena |
1523 |
59.67% |
21.09% |
7.12% |
2.96% |
0.53% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 70 |
Ricardas Berankis |
1455 |
40.33% |
10.88% |
2.87% |
0.94% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 71 |
Sam Querrey |
1638 |
53.05% |
36.75% |
17.64% |
10.10% |
2.78% |
0.71% |
0.15% |
| 72 |
Borna Coric |
1617 |
46.95% |
31.28% |
14.16% |
7.70% |
1.97% |
0.46% |
0.09% |
| 73 |
Guido Pella |
1612 |
75.92% |
54.07% |
28.29% |
12.76% |
3.21% |
0.74% |
0.14% |
| 74 |
John-Patrick Smith |
1412 |
24.08% |
10.60% |
2.81% |
0.62% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 75 |
Mohamed Safwat |
1450 |
48.71% |
16.93% |
5.21% |
1.33% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 76 |
Gregoire Barrere |
1459 |
51.29% |
18.40% |
5.86% |
1.55% |
0.21% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 77 |
Jordan Thompson |
1510 |
48.06% |
16.00% |
7.45% |
2.41% |
0.41% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 78 |
Alexander Bublik |
1524 |
51.94% |
18.19% |
8.81% |
2.98% |
0.54% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 79 |
Reilly Opelka |
1584 |
38.85% |
23.12% |
13.08% |
5.42% |
1.23% |
0.25% |
0.04% |
| 80 |
Fabio Fognini |
1663 |
61.15% |
42.70% |
28.49% |
14.80% |
4.43% |
1.23% |
0.29% |
| 81 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1695 |
68.87% |
52.02% |
33.07% |
10.07% |
5.78% |
1.79% |
0.48% |
| 82 |
Marton Fucsovics |
1557 |
31.13% |
18.14% |
8.15% |
1.53% |
0.59% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 83 |
Jannik Sinner |
1507 |
52.26% |
16.05% |
6.12% |
0.94% |
0.31% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 84 |
Max Purcell |
1491 |
47.74% |
13.79% |
4.98% |
0.72% |
0.22% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 85 |
Leonardo Mayer |
1517 |
48.49% |
17.10% |
6.40% |
1.03% |
0.35% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 86 |
Tommy Paul |
1528 |
51.51% |
18.86% |
7.31% |
1.22% |
0.43% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 87 |
Juan Ignacio Londero |
1528 |
30.75% |
15.62% |
6.07% |
1.02% |
0.36% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 88 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1669 |
69.25% |
48.41% |
27.90% |
7.81% |
4.21% |
1.19% |
0.29% |
| 89 |
Hubert Hurkacz |
1604 |
68.86% |
37.50% |
7.08% |
3.37% |
1.52% |
0.34% |
0.06% |
| 90 |
Dennis Novak |
1466 |
31.14% |
10.93% |
1.16% |
0.35% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 91 |
John Millman |
1567 |
48.17% |
24.40% |
3.96% |
1.69% |
0.68% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
| 92 |
Ugo Humbert |
1579 |
51.83% |
27.17% |
4.65% |
2.06% |
0.86% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
| 93 |
Quentin Halys |
1437 |
24.31% |
1.76% |
0.56% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 94 |
Filip Krajinovic |
1634 |
75.69% |
13.25% |
7.75% |
4.00% |
1.96% |
0.49% |
0.10% |
| 95 |
Steve Johnson |
1548 |
8.56% |
3.81% |
1.77% |
0.71% |
0.27% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 96 |
Roger Federer |
1959 |
91.44% |
81.18% |
73.09% |
63.36% |
54.04% |
33.71% |
19.58% |
| 97 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1817 |
86.60% |
72.03% |
55.06% |
40.08% |
17.76% |
8.76% |
3.54% |
| 98 |
Salvatore Caruso |
1493 |
13.40% |
5.86% |
2.04% |
0.63% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 99 |
Philipp Kohlschreiber |
1566 |
60.02% |
14.73% |
6.54% |
2.61% |
0.53% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 100 |
Marcos Giron |
1495 |
39.98% |
7.38% |
2.59% |
0.80% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 101 |
Christian Garin |
1569 |
64.59% |
26.16% |
7.68% |
3.09% |
0.64% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
| 102 |
Stefano Travaglia |
1464 |
35.41% |
9.70% |
1.91% |
0.52% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 103 |
Radu Albot |
1568 |
35.16% |
19.36% |
5.66% |
2.27% |
0.47% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 104 |
Milos Raonic |
1674 |
64.84% |
44.78% |
18.51% |
10.12% |
2.98% |
0.99% |
0.24% |
| 105 |
Benoit Paire |
1620 |
69.44% |
33.68% |
16.69% |
6.19% |
1.52% |
0.42% |
0.08% |
| 106 |
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe |
1477 |
30.56% |
9.22% |
2.89% |
0.63% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 107 |
Marin Cilic |
1676 |
73.98% |
47.00% |
26.85% |
11.84% |
3.51% |
1.17% |
0.29% |
| 108 |
Corentin Moutet |
1495 |
26.02% |
10.10% |
3.38% |
0.79% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 109 |
Pablo Andujar |
1493 |
55.80% |
15.19% |
5.01% |
1.17% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 110 |
Michael Mmoh |
1453 |
44.20% |
10.13% |
2.86% |
0.57% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 111 |
Feliciano Lopez |
1603 |
36.06% |
24.37% |
11.58% |
4.07% |
0.95% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
| 112 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1703 |
63.94% |
50.31% |
30.74% |
14.60% |
4.70% |
1.70% |
0.47% |
| 113 |
Diego Schwartzman |
1688 |
70.99% |
55.89% |
38.73% |
10.91% |
5.10% |
1.76% |
0.46% |
| 114 |
Lloyd Harris |
1533 |
29.01% |
17.47% |
8.43% |
1.38% |
0.38% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 115 |
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina |
1476 |
54.88% |
15.52% |
6.25% |
0.82% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 116 |
Norbert Gombos |
1442 |
45.12% |
11.11% |
3.97% |
0.45% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 117 |
Marc Polmans |
1474 |
40.35% |
15.17% |
5.10% |
0.66% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 118 |
Mikhail Kukushkin |
1542 |
59.65% |
28.04% |
11.80% |
2.00% |
0.57% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 119 |
Kyle Edmund |
1591 |
60.19% |
36.59% |
17.78% |
3.61% |
1.24% |
0.31% |
0.05% |
| 120 |
Dusan Lajovic |
1519 |
39.81% |
20.20% |
7.93% |
1.23% |
0.32% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 121 |
Daniel Evans |
1578 |
59.37% |
32.00% |
5.33% |
2.55% |
0.84% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
| 122 |
Mackenzie McDonald |
1512 |
40.63% |
18.09% |
2.33% |
0.91% |
0.23% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 123 |
Yoshihito Nishioka |
1577 |
59.31% |
31.85% |
5.29% |
2.53% |
0.83% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
| 124 |
Laslo Djere |
1511 |
40.69% |
18.06% |
2.33% |
0.91% |
0.23% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 125 |
Tatsuma Ito |
1425 |
46.64% |
3.04% |
0.98% |
0.28% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 126 |
Prajnesh Gunneswaran |
1448 |
53.36% |
3.91% |
1.38% |
0.43% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 127 |
Jan-Lennard Struff |
1629 |
12.28% |
9.22% |
5.58% |
3.06% |
1.20% |
0.34% |
0.07% |
| 128 |
Novak Djokovic |
1971 |
87.72% |
83.83% |
76.77% |
68.27% |
54.70% |
36.74% |
21.85% |
