The 2nd week of the Australian Open is starting in a few hours, so it's time for me to update the predictions I made last week, with some new predictions for the rest of the tournament.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, only one of them is still in. Serena Williams lost to Wang Qiang, Karolina Pliskova lost to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Naomi Osaka lost to Coco Gauff.
- Kiki Bertens had the easiest overall draw, and is still in the tournament, but her draw for the rest of the tournament has gotten a bit tougher, with Wang Qiang now having the easiest overall draw relative to her ranking. Madison Keys' tough draw ended up costing her, as she lost in round 3 to Maria Sakkari. Alison Riske now has the toughest draw relative to her ranking.
- Kateryna Bondarenko had the easiest 1st round draw, but unexpectedly ended up losing it to Arina Rodionova. The player who had the toughest 1st round draw, Lesia Tsurenko lost her first round match to Barty as expected.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Ashleigh Barty is the favourite for the title, with a 30.2% chance of winning the whole thing, with Simona Halep 2nd at 13.56%. The 3rd most likely winner is Sofia Kenin with 9.72%, and 4th is Petra Kvitova with 9.66%.
- As for the next match, it's Wang Qiang who has the easiest next match, as she's 26.21 percentage points more likely to make it to the quarter finals than a player of her ranking would expect. Garbine Muguruza has the toughest next match, as she's 20.4 percentage points less likely to win than her ranking would expect to do.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1895 |
78.26% |
55.29% |
42.21% |
30.20% |
| 2 |
Alison Riske |
1673 |
21.74% |
8.88% |
4.29% |
1.79% |
| 3 |
Maria Sakkari |
1656 |
33.08% |
8.66% |
3.99% |
1.58% |
| 4 |
Petra Kvitova |
1779 |
66.92% |
27.17% |
17.06% |
9.66% |
| 5 |
Coco Gauff |
1614 |
31.21% |
14.92% |
3.61% |
1.23% |
| 6 |
Sofia Kenin |
1751 |
68.79% |
45.84% |
18.42% |
9.72% |
| 7 |
Ons Jabeur |
1577 |
38.16% |
12.39% |
2.57% |
0.76% |
| 8 |
Wang Qiang |
1661 |
61.84% |
26.85% |
7.85% |
3.16% |
| 9 |
Anett Kontaveit |
1703 |
65.68% |
27.54% |
13.34% |
5.08% |
| 10 |
Iga Swiatek |
1590 |
34.32% |
9.48% |
3.14% |
0.79% |
| 11 |
Elise Mertens |
1694 |
35.63% |
19.31% |
9.11% |
3.38% |
| 12 |
Simona Halep |
1797 |
64.37% |
43.67% |
26.90% |
13.56% |
| 13 |
Garbine Muguruza |
1703 |
41.44% |
22.34% |
10.27% |
3.92% |
| 14 |
Kiki Bertens |
1763 |
58.56% |
36.48% |
19.82% |
9.10% |
| 15 |
Angelique Kerber |
1683 |
52.04% |
21.92% |
9.47% |
3.37% |
| 16 |
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova |
1669 |
47.96% |
19.26% |
7.95% |
2.69% |
