2020 Australian Open Predictions - Women's

The 1st Grand Slam of the season is starting on Monday, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Women's bracket will turn out. After the jump I present a table for percentages for all 128 players and how they will do.

Australian Open logo, © Australian Open

But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.

• Serena Williams is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 15.53% chance of winning the whole thing, with Ashleigh Barty next at 15.3%. The 3rd most likely is Karolina Pliskova with 9.89% and Naomi Osaka 4th with 9.11%
• Kiki Bertens has the easiest overall draw, as she is 1.58 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Madison Keys has a tough draw. She is 1.28 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected
• The toughest 1st round draw went to Lesia Tsurenko, as she's 42.13 percentage points less likely to win than a player of her rank is expected to win. Kateryna Bondarenko got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's 30.93 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than her ranking would expect.

Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.

#	Name	ELO	R1 %	R2 %	R3 %	R4 %	R5 %	R6 %	R7 %
1	Ashleigh Barty	1885	84.73%	71.63%	59.23%	47.14%	35.12%	22.02%	15.30%
2	Lesia Tsurenko	1587	15.27%	7.62%	3.65%	1.56%	0.57%	0.15%	0.04%
3	Polona Hercog	1549	40.79%	7.15%	3.06%	1.16%	0.37%	0.08%	0.02%
4	Rebecca Peterson	1614	59.21%	13.60%	7.02%	3.26%	1.31%	0.37%	0.13%
5	Aliaksandra Sasnovich	1530	53.58%	19.01%	3.80%	1.34%	0.40%	0.08%	0.02%
6	Greet Minnen	1505	46.42%	15.02%	2.71%	0.87%	0.24%	0.04%	0.01%
7	Bernada Pera	1543	31.33%	16.78%	3.54%	1.31%	0.41%	0.09%	0.02%
8	Elena Rybakina	1679	68.67%	49.19%	17.00%	9.41%	4.61%	1.66%	0.70%
9	Alison Riske	1650	63.06%	46.91%	22.93%	7.95%	3.58%	1.16%	0.45%
10	Wang Yafan	1557	36.94%	23.27%	8.47%	2.12%	0.70%	0.16%	0.04%
11	Viktorija Golubic	1482	55.53%	17.68%	4.84%	0.90%	0.22%	0.04%	0.01%
12	Zhu Lin	1443	44.47%	12.14%	2.83%	0.44%	0.09%	0.01%	0.00%
13	Julia Gorges	1658	66.45%	32.76%	20.06%	7.13%	3.28%	1.09%	0.43%
14	Viktoria Kuzmova	1539	33.55%	11.39%	5.15%	1.20%	0.37%	0.08%	0.02%
15	Christina McHale	1483	21.52%	6.88%	2.61%	0.49%	0.12%	0.02%	0.00%
16	Petra Martic	1708	78.48%	48.97%	33.11%	13.72%	7.24%	2.87%	1.32%
17	Madison Keys	1756	69.78%	53.90%	40.02%	24.47%	12.13%	5.55%	2.93%
18	Daria Kasatkina	1611	30.22%	18.08%	10.12%	4.27%	1.37%	0.38%	0.13%
19	Magda Linette	1576	64.08%	20.44%	10.46%	3.96%	1.12%	0.27%	0.08%
20	Arantxa Rus	1476	35.92%	7.58%	2.83%	0.75%	0.14%	0.02%	0.00%
21	Nao Hibino	1486	42.60%	14.87%	3.99%	1.09%	0.22%	0.04%	0.01%
22	Peng Shuai	1537	57.40%	24.01%	7.83%	2.60%	0.63%	0.13%	0.03%
23	Margarita Gasparyan	1537	37.04%	19.69%	6.42%	2.13%	0.52%	0.11%	0.03%
24	Maria Sakkari	1629	62.96%	41.42%	18.32%	8.18%	2.79%	0.84%	0.30%
25	Ekaterina Alexandrova	1655	69.89%	45.98%	21.56%	10.93%	4.05%	1.34%	0.52%
26	Jil Teichmann	1509	30.11%	13.69%	4.07%	1.30%	0.28%	0.05%	0.01%
27	Kaia Kanepi	1566	59.03%	25.84%	9.34%	3.65%	0.99%	0.23%	0.07%
28	Barbora Krejcikova	1503	40.97%	14.49%	4.23%	1.32%	0.28%	0.05%	0.01%
29	Paula Badosa	1476	52.59%	11.24%	3.88%	1.09%	0.21%	0.03%	0.01%
30	Johanna Larsson	1458	47.41%	9.38%	3.03%	0.80%	0.14%	0.02%	0.00%
31	Katerina Siniakova	1528	20.45%	12.01%	4.98%	1.71%	0.40%	0.08%	0.02%
32	Petra Kvitova	1764	79.55%	67.37%	48.90%	31.76%	16.08%	7.54%	4.07%
33	Naomi Osaka	1833	87.38%	74.88%	57.32%	42.03%	24.22%	14.42%	9.11%
34	Marie Bouzkova	1497	12.62%	5.93%	1.97%	0.62%	0.12%	0.02%	0.01%
35	Zheng Saisai	1553	63.01%	13.73%	5.54%	2.11%	0.51%	0.13%	0.03%
36	Anna Kalinskaya	1460	36.99%	5.46%	1.57%	0.43%	0.07%	0.01%	0.00%
37	Venus Williams	1688	65.65%	43.91%	17.92%	9.99%	3.90%	1.59%	0.69%
38	Coco Gauff	1576	34.35%	17.69%	5.02%	2.06%	0.54%	0.15%	0.04%
39	Sorana Cirstea	1531	41.52%	14.04%	3.38%	1.19%	0.26%	0.06%	0.01%
40	Barbora Strycova	1590	58.48%	24.36%	7.27%	3.11%	0.87%	0.25%	0.08%
41	Sloane Stephens	1615	55.29%	35.01%	15.54%	5.32%	1.62%	0.52%	0.18%
42	Zhang Shuai	1578	44.71%	26.06%	10.37%	3.12%	0.83%	0.23%	0.07%
43	Samantha Stosur	1543	58.17%	24.53%	8.75%	2.31%	0.54%	0.13%	0.03%
44	Caty McNally	1486	41.83%	14.39%	4.21%	0.89%	0.16%	0.03%	0.01%
45	Ann Li	1489	52.10%	13.08%	5.09%	1.09%	0.20%	0.04%	0.01%
46	Lizette Cabrera	1475	47.90%	11.36%	4.20%	0.84%	0.15%	0.03%	0.01%
47	Martina Trevisan	1447	15.78%	7.09%	2.36%	0.42%	0.06%	0.01%	0.00%
48	Sofia Kenin	1738	84.22%	68.47%	49.48%	24.49%	11.09%	5.22%	2.63%
49	Johanna Konta	1729	75.20%	55.19%	32.92%	14.25%	7.04%	3.24%	1.59%
50	Ons Jabeur	1537	24.80%	12.00%	4.04%	0.94%	0.24%	0.06%	0.01%
51	Madison Brengle	1458	31.87%	7.22%	1.79%	0.30%	0.06%	0.01%	0.00%
52	Caroline Garcia	1590	68.13%	25.59%	10.37%	2.91%	0.93%	0.27%	0.08%
53	Kristie Ahn	1516	25.76%	9.02%	2.92%	0.62%	0.15%	0.03%	0.01%
54	Caroline Wozniacki	1700	74.24%	44.21%	24.91%	9.91%	4.51%	1.90%	0.86%
55	Kaja Juvan	1489	25.51%	7.37%	2.16%	0.42%	0.09%	0.02%	0.00%
56	Dayana Yastremska	1675	74.49%	39.40%	20.90%	7.73%	3.27%	1.28%	0.53%
57	Wang Qiang	1633	71.75%	44.89%	13.19%	5.86%	2.17%	0.74%	0.27%
58	Pauline Parmentier	1471	28.25%	11.27%	1.83%	0.45%	0.09%	0.02%	0.00%
59	Fiona Ferro	1503	40.51%	15.59%	2.88%	0.81%	0.18%	0.04%	0.01%
60	Alison Van Uytvanck	1570	59.49%	28.25%	6.68%	2.41%	0.71%	0.19%	0.06%
61	Tamara Zidansek	1499	55.70%	8.01%	3.14%	0.87%	0.19%	0.04%	0.01%
62	Han Na-Lae	1459	44.30%	5.33%	1.82%	0.42%	0.08%	0.01%	0.00%
63	Anastasia Potapova	1519	11.33%	6.28%	2.64%	0.79%	0.19%	0.04%	0.01%
64	Serena Williams	1877	88.67%	80.38%	67.83%	51.32%	34.94%	22.67%	15.53%
65	Belinda Bencic	1726	82.67%	56.23%	35.74%	20.69%	11.60%	5.65%	2.25%
66	Anna Karolina Schmiedlova	1455	17.33%	5.52%	1.55%	0.37%	0.08%	0.01%	0.00%
67	Liudmila Samsonova	1498	31.47%	8.58%	2.85%	0.80%	0.22%	0.05%	0.01%
68	Jelena Ostapenko	1633	68.53%	29.67%	15.15%	6.85%	2.99%	1.09%	0.31%
69	Sara Sorribes Tormo	1443	27.29%	7.09%	1.63%	0.37%	0.08%	0.01%	0.00%
70	Veronika Kudermetova	1614	72.71%	34.08%	14.63%	6.24%	2.56%	0.87%	0.23%
71	Astra Sharma	1479	23.62%	8.96%	2.38%	0.62%	0.16%	0.03%	0.00%
72	Anett Kontaveit	1683	76.38%	49.86%	26.07%	13.56%	6.81%	2.92%	1.01%
73	Donna Vekic	1634	41.73%	25.56%	11.73%	5.38%	2.35%	0.86%	0.25%
74	Maria Sharapova	1692	58.27%	40.05%	21.47%	11.56%	5.95%	2.63%	0.93%
75	Alize Cornet	1586	62.42%	24.07%	9.56%	3.76%	1.41%	0.44%	0.10%
76	Monica Niculescu	1498	37.58%	10.33%	3.02%	0.86%	0.23%	0.05%	0.01%
77	Iga Swiatek	1560	67.70%	21.03%	8.43%	3.04%	1.04%	0.29%	0.06%
78	Timea Babos	1432	32.30%	5.83%	1.43%	0.31%	0.06%	0.01%	0.00%
79	Carla Suarez Navarro	1596	29.36%	17.78%	7.99%	3.24%	1.26%	0.40%	0.10%
80	Aryna Sabalenka	1748	70.64%	55.36%	36.36%	22.35%	13.19%	6.82%	2.91%
81	Elise Mertens	1677	82.12%	57.95%	35.18%	17.02%	8.42%	3.56%	1.20%
82	Danka Kovinic	1412	17.88%	6.13%	1.61%	0.30%	0.06%	0.01%	0.00%
83	Kristyna Pliskova	1531	51.69%	18.92%	7.71%	2.33%	0.71%	0.18%	0.03%
84	Heather Watson	1519	48.31%	16.99%	6.66%	1.92%	0.56%	0.13%	0.02%
85	Catherine Bellis	1584	67.56%	30.68%	14.35%	5.22%	1.92%	0.59%	0.14%
86	Tatjana Maria	1456	32.44%	9.46%	2.89%	0.65%	0.14%	0.03%	0.00%
87	Kirsten Flipkens	1502	28.51%	12.63%	4.56%	1.23%	0.33%	0.07%	0.01%
88	Karolina Muchova	1661	71.49%	47.22%	27.04%	12.53%	5.93%	2.38%	0.76%
89	Danielle Collins	1629	77.86%	41.04%	16.87%	8.64%	3.70%	1.33%	0.38%
90	Vitalia Diatchenko	1411	22.14%	5.34%	1.02%	0.24%	0.04%	0.01%	0.00%
91	Yulia Putintseva	1590	44.72%	22.75%	8.30%	3.80%	1.43%	0.45%	0.11%
92	Hsieh Su-Wei	1627	55.28%	30.87%	12.60%	6.41%	2.73%	0.97%	0.27%
93	Harriet Dart	1443	47.98%	8.10%	2.29%	0.63%	0.13%	0.02%	0.00%
94	Misaki Doi	1457	52.02%	9.35%	2.79%	0.81%	0.18%	0.03%	0.00%
95	Jennifer Brady	1564	21.93%	14.43%	6.31%	2.68%	0.92%	0.26%	0.06%
96	Simona Halep	1785	78.07%	68.12%	49.82%	35.58%	22.81%	12.92%	6.15%
97	Elina Svitolina	1774	82.60%	68.67%	47.79%	30.59%	17.71%	10.70%	4.94%
98	Katie Boulter	1504	17.40%	8.88%	2.97%	0.89%	0.22%	0.06%	0.01%
99	Lauren Davis	1514	55.52%	13.33%	4.63%	1.44%	0.37%	0.10%	0.02%
100	Leylah Annie Fernandez	1475	44.48%	9.12%	2.74%	0.74%	0.16%	0.04%	0.01%
101	Garbine Muguruza	1679	74.84%	46.06%	22.21%	11.50%	5.23%	2.48%	0.84%
102	Shelby Rogers	1489	25.16%	8.85%	2.33%	0.67%	0.16%	0.04%	0.01%
103	Ajla Tomljanovic	1561	41.36%	16.68%	5.66%	2.08%	0.64%	0.21%	0.04%
104	Anastasija Sevastova	1621	58.64%	28.41%	11.67%	5.17%	1.98%	0.78%	0.21%
105	Amanda Anisimova	1649	68.88%	48.73%	22.84%	10.18%	4.25%	1.84%	0.56%
106	Zarina Diyas	1511	31.12%	16.25%	5.01%	1.39%	0.36%	0.09%	0.02%
107	Jasmine Paolini	1486	47.41%	16.04%	4.54%	1.14%	0.27%	0.06%	0.01%
108	Anna Blinkova	1504	52.59%	18.98%	5.72%	1.55%	0.39%	0.10%	0.02%
109	Kateryna Bondarenko	1459	56.09%	11.72%	4.07%	0.92%	0.19%	0.04%	0.01%
110	Arina Rodionova	1416	43.91%	7.66%	2.27%	0.42%	0.07%	0.01%	0.00%
111	Irina-Camelia Begu	1470	16.36%	8.87%	3.21%	0.75%	0.16%	0.04%	0.01%
112	Kiki Bertens	1753	83.64%	71.74%	52.35%	30.56%	16.86%	9.72%	4.21%
113	Marketa Vondrousova	1706	62.02%	42.04%	27.80%	13.38%	6.68%	3.41%	1.27%
114	Svetlana Kuznetsova	1620	37.98%	21.55%	11.90%	4.48%	1.73%	0.68%	0.19%
115	Antonia Lottner	1457	28.60%	6.48%	2.20%	0.45%	0.09%	0.02%	0.00%
116	Camila Giorgi	1616	71.40%	29.94%	16.36%	6.07%	2.31%	0.90%	0.24%
117	Kateryna Kozlova	1490	56.60%	18.71%	5.54%	1.30%	0.31%	0.07%	0.01%
118	Priscilla Hon	1444	43.40%	12.03%	2.95%	0.58%	0.11%	0.02%	0.00%
119	Elisabetta Cocciaretto	1485	26.29%	13.73%	3.99%	0.92%	0.21%	0.05%	0.01%
120	Angelique Kerber	1664	73.71%	55.53%	29.25%	12.56%	5.58%	2.53%	0.81%
121	Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova	1641	69.29%	44.48%	16.20%	8.21%	3.39%	1.43%	0.42%
122	Nina Stojanovic	1500	30.71%	13.63%	2.96%	0.95%	0.23%	0.06%	0.01%
123	Taylor Townsend	1513	43.44%	16.68%	3.82%	1.29%	0.34%	0.09%	0.02%
124	Jessica Pegula	1559	56.56%	25.21%	6.90%	2.73%	0.85%	0.27%	0.06%
125	Laura Siegemund	1566	52.39%	12.00%	5.78%	2.34%	0.75%	0.24%	0.05%
126	Coco Vandeweghe	1550	47.61%	10.17%	4.66%	1.78%	0.54%	0.16%	0.03%
127	Kristina Mladenovic	1623	22.56%	13.35%	7.48%	3.60%	1.40%	0.56%	0.15%
128	Karolina Pliskova	1837	77.44%	64.48%	52.21%	39.35%	26.45%	18.10%	9.89%