The 2nd week of the Australian Open is starting in a few hours, so it's time for me to update the predictions I made last week, with some new predictions for the rest of the tournament.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, all 4 are still in!
- Daniil Medvedev had the easiest overall draw, and is still in the tournament, but his draw for the rest of the tournament is fairer now, with Roger Federer now having the easiest overall draw relative to his ranking. Stefanos Tsitsipas' tough draw ended up costing him, as he lost in round 3 to Milos Raonic. Novak Djokovic now has the toughest draw relative to his ranking.
- Tatsuma Ito had the easiest 1st round draw, and won against Prajnesh Gunneswaran before losing to Novak Djokovic. The player who had the toughest 1st round draw, Jan-Lennard Struff lost his first round match to Djokovic as expected.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Rafael Nadal is the favourite for the title, with a 30.81% chance of winning the whole thing, with Roger Federer 2nd at 25.56%. The 3rd most likely winner is Novak Djokovic with 23.43%, and 4th is Dominic Thiem with 6.29%.
- As for the next match, it's Fabio Fognini who has the easiest next match, as he's 52.35 percentage points more likely to make it to the quarter finals than a player of his ranking would expect. Nick Kyrgios has the toughest next match, as he's 34.88 percentage points less likely to win than his ranking would expect to do.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
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| # |
Name |
ELO |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Rafael Nadal |
2022 |
84.99% |
63.92% |
50.20% |
30.81% |
| 2 |
Nick Kyrgios |
1721 |
15.01% |
5.48% |
2.17% |
0.52% |
| 3 |
Gael Monfils |
1695 |
27.11% |
4.93% |
1.79% |
0.39% |
| 4 |
Dominic Thiem |
1867 |
72.89% |
25.66% |
15.45% |
6.29% |
| 5 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1842 |
62.34% |
37.50% |
13.41% |
5.03% |
| 6 |
Stan Wawrinka |
1754 |
37.66% |
17.97% |
4.67% |
1.28% |
| 7 |
Andrey Rublev |
1763 |
47.97% |
20.87% |
5.61% |
1.59% |
| 8 |
Alexander Zverev |
1777 |
52.03% |
23.66% |
6.71% |
2.00% |
| 9 |
Tennys Sandgren |
1541 |
30.34% |
3.51% |
0.50% |
0.06% |
| 10 |
Fabio Fognini |
1685 |
69.66% |
14.92% |
3.85% |
0.87% |
| 11 |
Marton Fucsovics |
1589 |
10.24% |
4.36% |
0.76% |
0.11% |
| 12 |
Roger Federer |
1966 |
89.76% |
77.20% |
45.59% |
25.56% |
| 13 |
Milos Raonic |
1700 |
49.90% |
11.26% |
3.03% |
0.73% |
| 14 |
Marin Cilic |
1701 |
50.10% |
11.34% |
3.05% |
0.74% |
| 15 |
Diego Schwartzman |
1704 |
17.31% |
8.76% |
2.39% |
0.58% |
| 16 |
Novak Djokovic |
1976 |
82.69% |
68.65% |
40.83% |
23.43% |
