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View my 2nd week tournament predictions for the Men and the Women here, and after the jump, I present some stats I calculated for the top 150 players, my latest ELO ratings for the finalists, and how likely they are to win the match. Who do you think the favourite is?
The Men's numbers will stay the same as both finalists are top 10 players, but the Women's have a top 10 player vs an 11-20 player, so those numbers will change after the final. Now, my latest rankings and predictions:
| Rank | ± Men | ± Wmn |
| 1-10 | 66 | 35 |
| 11-20 | -47 | 14 |
| 21-50 | -1 | 65 |
| 51-100 | 46 | -27 |
| 101-150 | -84 | -6 |
The Men's numbers will stay the same as both finalists are top 10 players, but the Women's have a top 10 player vs an 11-20 player, so those numbers will change after the final. Now, my latest rankings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak Djokovic | 2008 | 65.00% |
| 2 | Daniil Medvedev | 1901 | 35.00% |
| # | Name | ELO | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jennifer Brady | 1706 | 25.13% |
| 1 | Naomi Osaka | 1896 | 74.87% |
What do you think? I have 2 polls running on Twitter until the finals start where you can share your opinions.
My numbers have 🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic as a 65% favourite to win the #AusOpen title over 🇷🇺 Daniil Medvedev. Should it be higher, lower or have I got it right?
— Tennis ELO Rankings (@tennis_elo) February 19, 2021
My numbers have 🇯🇵 Naomi Osaka as a 75% favourite to win the #AusOpen title over 🇺🇸 Jennifer Brady. Should it be higher, lower or have I got it right?
— Tennis ELO Rankings (@tennis_elo) February 18, 2021
