The 2nd week of the Australian Open is about to get under way, so it's time for me to update my predictions for the tournament, after the jump, I summarize what's happened so far, and present what I think is likely to happen for the rest of the event.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, all 4 of them are still in!
- Diego Schwartzman had the easiest overall draw, but he lost in round 3 to Aslan Karatsev. Milos Raonic had the toughest overall draw, and is still in the tournament, and now has the toughest next match, as he's 44.09 percentage points less likely to win than his ranking would expect to do.
- Pablo Andujar had the easiest 1st round draw, and won his match against Quentin Halys before losing to Filip Krajinovic. The player who had the toughest 1st round draw, Jeremy Chardy lost his first round match to Novak Djokovic as expected.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Rafael Nadal remains the favourite for the title, with a 30.25% chance of winning the whole thing, with Novak Djokovic 2nd at 25.6%. The 3rd most likely winner is Dominic Thiem with 13.87%, and 4th is Daniil Medvedev with 10.69%.
- As for the next match, it's Felix Auger-Aliassime who has the easiest next match, as he's 45.44 percentage points more likely to make it to the quarter finals than a player of his ranking would expect. He also has the easiest overall draw as he is 0.15 percentage points more likely to win the title than expected.
- The toughest overall draw now belongs to Matteo Berrettini, as he is 0.29 percentage points less likely to win the title than expected.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak Djokovic | 1997 | 80.06% | 59.19% | 42.56% | 25.60% |
| 2 | Milos Raonic | 1756 | 19.94% | 8.64% | 3.62% | 1.05% |
| 3 | Dusan Lajovic | 1543 | 14.90% | 1.49% | 0.29% | 0.03% |
| 4 | Alexander Zverev | 1845 | 85.10% | 30.69% | 16.39% | 6.54% |
| 5 | Dominic Thiem | 1904 | 74.80% | 61.60% | 29.06% | 13.87% |
| 6 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1715 | 25.20% | 15.57% | 3.82% | 0.94% |
| 7 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1673 | 70.64% | 18.84% | 3.87% | 0.80% |
| 8 | Aslan Karatsev | 1520 | 29.36% | 3.99% | 0.40% | 0.04% |
| 9 | Andrey Rublev | 1841 | 77.41% | 37.91% | 14.30% | 5.79% |
| 10 | Casper Ruud | 1627 | 22.59% | 5.41% | 0.89% | 0.16% |
| 11 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1524 | 11.37% | 2.14% | 0.22% | 0.02% |
| 12 | Daniil Medvedev | 1881 | 88.63% | 54.54% | 23.35% | 10.69% |
| 13 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1818 | 64.03% | 19.81% | 9.11% | 3.43% |
| 14 | Matteo Berrettini | 1718 | 35.97% | 7.61% | 2.50% | 0.65% |
| 15 | Fabio Fognini | 1633 | 10.68% | 3.21% | 0.76% | 0.14% |
| 16 | Rafael Nadal | 2002 | 89.32% | 69.36% | 48.87% | 30.25% |
