The 1st Grand Slam of the season is starting on Monday, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Men's bracket will turn out. After the jump I present a table with percentages for all 128 players and how they will do.
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But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Rafael Nadal is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 30.39% chance of winning the whole thing, with Novak Djokovic next at 24.58%. The 3rd most likely is Dominic Thiem with 10.51% and Daniil Medvedev 4th with 8.19%
- Diego Schwartzman has the easiest overall draw, as he is 0.65 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Milos Raonic has a tough draw. He is 0.59 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Jeremy Chardy, as he's 51.41 percentage points less likely to win than a player of his rank is expected to win. Pablo Andujar got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's 36.79 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than his ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Novak Djokovic |
1991 |
88.17% |
81.82% |
74.88% |
63.05% |
50.79% |
38.94% |
24.58% |
| 2 |
Jeremy Chardy |
1642 |
11.83% |
7.51% |
4.48% |
1.96% |
0.79% |
0.27% |
0.06% |
| 3 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1557 |
53.02% |
5.92% |
2.83% |
0.93% |
0.28% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 4 |
Stefano Travaglia |
1536 |
46.98% |
4.75% |
2.13% |
0.65% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 5 |
Reilly Opelka |
1616 |
71.79% |
41.93% |
7.68% |
3.09% |
1.15% |
0.36% |
0.07% |
| 6 |
Yen-Hsun Lu |
1454 |
28.21% |
10.07% |
0.94% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 7 |
Albert Ramos Vinolas |
1527 |
42.58% |
18.70% |
2.40% |
0.71% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 8 |
Taylor Fritz |
1579 |
57.42% |
29.30% |
4.65% |
1.65% |
0.54% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 9 |
Stan Wawrinka |
1734 |
82.73% |
62.21% |
36.75% |
11.55% |
6.00% |
2.76% |
0.87% |
| 10 |
Pedro Sousa |
1462 |
17.27% |
6.83% |
1.72% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 11 |
Marton Fucsovics |
1577 |
66.30% |
23.33% |
8.95% |
1.66% |
0.54% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
| 12 |
Marc Polmans |
1459 |
33.70% |
7.63% |
1.90% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 13 |
Corentin Moutet |
1521 |
40.83% |
11.49% |
3.72% |
0.56% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 14 |
John Millman |
1585 |
59.17% |
21.00% |
8.44% |
1.62% |
0.54% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 15 |
Federico Coria |
1487 |
18.81% |
7.50% |
2.15% |
0.28% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 16 |
Milos Raonic |
1741 |
81.19% |
60.01% |
36.37% |
11.68% |
6.17% |
2.89% |
0.93% |
| 17 |
Gael Monfils |
1702 |
77.06% |
53.93% |
38.52% |
17.89% |
5.30% |
2.22% |
0.62% |
| 18 |
Emil Ruusuvuori |
1492 |
22.94% |
9.50% |
4.09% |
0.96% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 19 |
Yoshihito Nishioka |
1587 |
62.61% |
25.46% |
14.37% |
4.74% |
0.92% |
0.26% |
0.05% |
| 20 |
Pedro Martinez |
1497 |
37.39% |
11.12% |
4.87% |
1.17% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 21 |
Aljaz Bedene |
1579 |
52.17% |
32.82% |
14.10% |
4.53% |
0.85% |
0.23% |
0.04% |
| 22 |
Alexander Bublik |
1564 |
47.83% |
29.12% |
11.92% |
3.64% |
0.64% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
| 23 |
Sergiy Stakhovsky |
1446 |
40.44% |
13.22% |
3.54% |
0.69% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 24 |
Dusan Lajovic |
1513 |
59.56% |
24.84% |
8.58% |
2.19% |
0.31% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 25 |
Adrian Mannarino |
1578 |
69.59% |
37.49% |
10.91% |
5.01% |
0.94% |
0.26% |
0.04% |
| 26 |
Dennis Novak |
1434 |
30.41% |
10.44% |
1.77% |
0.49% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 27 |
Miomir Kecmanovic |
1591 |
67.58% |
39.04% |
11.88% |
5.67% |
1.12% |
0.32% |
0.06% |
| 28 |
Kamil Majchrzak |
1463 |
32.42% |
13.04% |
2.49% |
0.78% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 29 |
Taro Daniel |
1443 |
42.32% |
5.76% |
2.01% |
0.58% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 30 |
Maxime Cressy |
1497 |
57.68% |
9.97% |
4.20% |
1.48% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 31 |
Marcos Giron |
1546 |
15.92% |
9.59% |
4.70% |
1.96% |
0.32% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 32 |
Alexander Zverev |
1836 |
84.08% |
74.68% |
62.05% |
48.22% |
21.30% |
12.57% |
5.46% |
| 33 |
Dominic Thiem |
1895 |
89.12% |
80.76% |
63.97% |
49.89% |
39.27% |
20.65% |
10.51% |
| 34 |
Mikhail Kukushkin |
1529 |
10.88% |
5.95% |
1.99% |
0.63% |
0.21% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 35 |
Dominik Koepfer |
1531 |
63.51% |
9.68% |
3.25% |
1.04% |
0.35% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 36 |
Hugo Dellien |
1435 |
36.49% |
3.61% |
0.83% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 37 |
Frederico Ferreira Silva |
1466 |
20.45% |
6.45% |
0.95% |
0.23% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 38 |
Nick Kyrgios |
1702 |
79.55% |
49.75% |
17.09% |
9.34% |
5.23% |
1.56% |
0.44% |
| 39 |
Yasutaka Uchiyama |
1461 |
24.73% |
6.43% |
0.92% |
0.22% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 40 |
Ugo Humbert |
1654 |
75.27% |
37.37% |
11.01% |
5.30% |
2.62% |
0.66% |
0.15% |
| 41 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1691 |
59.44% |
45.92% |
24.20% |
8.58% |
4.69% |
1.35% |
0.36% |
| 42 |
Marin Cilic |
1625 |
40.56% |
28.33% |
12.38% |
3.49% |
1.59% |
0.36% |
0.07% |
| 43 |
Alex Bolt |
1479 |
49.93% |
12.84% |
3.34% |
0.52% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 44 |
Norbert Gombos |
1479 |
50.07% |
12.91% |
3.36% |
0.53% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 45 |
Kimmer Coppejans |
1433 |
33.63% |
5.54% |
1.48% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 46 |
Jiri Vesely |
1551 |
66.37% |
18.60% |
7.60% |
1.61% |
0.58% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
| 47 |
Kei Nishikori |
1703 |
46.73% |
34.86% |
21.34% |
7.85% |
4.41% |
1.33% |
0.37% |
| 48 |
Pablo Carreno Busta |
1726 |
53.27% |
41.00% |
26.29% |
10.39% |
6.16% |
2.00% |
0.61% |
| 49 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1659 |
44.71% |
33.30% |
20.65% |
10.89% |
3.70% |
0.95% |
0.23% |
| 50 |
Jannik Sinner |
1695 |
55.29% |
43.30% |
28.82% |
16.59% |
6.37% |
1.87% |
0.51% |
| 51 |
Yuichi Sugita |
1461 |
47.01% |
10.47% |
3.79% |
1.07% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 52 |
Bernard Tomic |
1482 |
52.99% |
12.93% |
5.02% |
1.54% |
0.26% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 53 |
Damir Dzumhur |
1452 |
51.23% |
15.35% |
4.20% |
1.15% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 54 |
James Duckworth |
1444 |
48.77% |
14.14% |
3.74% |
0.99% |
0.14% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 55 |
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe |
1482 |
27.32% |
15.00% |
4.60% |
1.41% |
0.24% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 56 |
Felix Auger-Aliassime |
1652 |
72.68% |
55.51% |
29.18% |
15.14% |
5.03% |
1.26% |
0.29% |
| 57 |
Benoit Paire |
1534 |
43.33% |
24.15% |
8.19% |
3.07% |
0.65% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
| 58 |
Egor Gerasimov |
1581 |
56.67% |
35.26% |
13.92% |
6.07% |
1.55% |
0.29% |
0.05% |
| 59 |
Gianluca Mager |
1506 |
53.63% |
22.64% |
6.95% |
2.36% |
0.44% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 60 |
Aslan Karatsev |
1481 |
46.37% |
17.95% |
5.03% |
1.56% |
0.26% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 61 |
Federico Delbonis |
1478 |
45.30% |
10.81% |
4.54% |
1.39% |
0.23% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 62 |
Juan Ignacio Londero |
1511 |
54.70% |
14.78% |
6.89% |
2.38% |
0.46% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 63 |
Elias Ymer |
1365 |
10.78% |
3.45% |
0.95% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 64 |
Diego Schwartzman |
1732 |
89.22% |
70.95% |
53.54% |
34.19% |
14.69% |
4.88% |
1.52% |
| 65 |
Andrey Rublev |
1831 |
84.98% |
74.28% |
61.35% |
46.51% |
28.39% |
12.11% |
5.43% |
| 66 |
Yannick Hanfmann |
1530 |
15.02% |
8.29% |
3.81% |
1.43% |
0.37% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 67 |
Thiago Monteiro |
1509 |
54.64% |
10.13% |
4.34% |
1.51% |
0.36% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 68 |
Andrej Martin |
1476 |
45.36% |
7.31% |
2.81% |
0.87% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 69 |
Li Tu |
1489 |
38.77% |
14.87% |
3.17% |
1.02% |
0.23% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 70 |
Feliciano Lopez |
1568 |
61.23% |
30.34% |
8.66% |
3.68% |
1.10% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
| 71 |
Sam Querrey |
1588 |
55.22% |
31.52% |
9.61% |
4.34% |
1.38% |
0.26% |
0.05% |
| 72 |
Lorenzo Sonego |
1551 |
44.78% |
23.27% |
6.26% |
2.52% |
0.71% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 73 |
Casper Ruud |
1602 |
57.28% |
34.25% |
15.03% |
5.30% |
1.77% |
0.35% |
0.07% |
| 74 |
Jordan Thompson |
1551 |
42.72% |
22.46% |
8.35% |
2.49% |
0.70% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 75 |
Nikoloz Basilashvili |
1526 |
48.03% |
20.31% |
6.92% |
1.88% |
0.48% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 76 |
Tommy Paul |
1539 |
51.97% |
22.98% |
8.22% |
2.35% |
0.63% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
| 77 |
Christopher O'Connell |
1493 |
33.77% |
9.27% |
3.75% |
0.90% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 78 |
Jan-Lennard Struff |
1610 |
66.23% |
27.61% |
15.74% |
5.70% |
1.96% |
0.40% |
0.08% |
| 79 |
Radu Albot |
1528 |
25.12% |
11.05% |
5.01% |
1.37% |
0.35% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 80 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1717 |
74.88% |
52.07% |
36.99% |
18.14% |
8.54% |
2.57% |
0.80% |
| 81 |
David Goffin |
1643 |
70.14% |
47.49% |
27.72% |
9.89% |
4.02% |
0.93% |
0.22% |
| 82 |
Alexei Popyrin |
1495 |
29.86% |
14.11% |
5.41% |
1.15% |
0.28% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 83 |
Lloyd Harris |
1532 |
55.84% |
22.75% |
9.84% |
2.40% |
0.67% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
| 84 |
Mikael Torpegaard |
1492 |
44.16% |
15.64% |
5.93% |
1.24% |
0.29% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 85 |
Mackenzie McDonald |
1489 |
53.74% |
17.16% |
6.61% |
1.37% |
0.32% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 86 |
Marco Cecchinato |
1463 |
46.26% |
13.32% |
4.69% |
0.87% |
0.19% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 87 |
Guido Pella |
1563 |
36.76% |
22.84% |
11.10% |
3.03% |
0.95% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
| 88 |
Borna Coric |
1658 |
63.24% |
46.68% |
28.70% |
10.70% |
4.53% |
1.10% |
0.28% |
| 89 |
Filip Krajinovic |
1647 |
70.94% |
55.13% |
18.20% |
10.47% |
4.30% |
1.01% |
0.24% |
| 90 |
Robin Haase |
1492 |
29.06% |
17.10% |
3.20% |
1.17% |
0.28% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 91 |
Pablo Andujar |
1443 |
54.06% |
15.79% |
2.41% |
0.73% |
0.14% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 92 |
Quentin Halys |
1415 |
45.94% |
11.98% |
1.62% |
0.44% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 93 |
Roberto Carballes Baena |
1500 |
46.03% |
6.89% |
2.89% |
1.08% |
0.27% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 94 |
Attila Balazs |
1528 |
53.97% |
9.15% |
4.16% |
1.71% |
0.47% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 95 |
Vasek Pospisil |
1612 |
18.38% |
11.68% |
6.61% |
3.48% |
1.28% |
0.26% |
0.05% |
| 96 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1871 |
81.62% |
72.28% |
60.91% |
50.25% |
34.60% |
16.41% |
8.19% |
| 97 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1809 |
80.78% |
68.98% |
56.25% |
39.59% |
15.18% |
8.30% |
3.49% |
| 98 |
Gilles Simon |
1559 |
19.22% |
11.20% |
5.80% |
2.20% |
0.37% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 99 |
Thanasi Kokkinakis |
1479 |
44.28% |
7.95% |
3.22% |
0.91% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 100 |
Kwon Soon-Woo |
1519 |
55.72% |
11.87% |
5.47% |
1.80% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 101 |
Botic van de Zandschulp |
1526 |
51.32% |
23.30% |
6.27% |
2.11% |
0.31% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 102 |
Carlos Alcaraz |
1516 |
48.68% |
21.48% |
5.59% |
1.82% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 103 |
Mikael Ymer |
1472 |
32.40% |
13.92% |
3.05% |
0.84% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 104 |
Hubert Hurkacz |
1599 |
67.60% |
41.30% |
14.35% |
6.18% |
1.20% |
0.35% |
0.07% |
| 105 |
Karen Khachanov |
1658 |
72.76% |
52.74% |
25.90% |
11.72% |
2.80% |
0.99% |
0.25% |
| 106 |
Aleksandar Vukic |
1487 |
27.24% |
13.56% |
3.77% |
0.98% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 107 |
Ricardas Berankis |
1512 |
57.94% |
21.17% |
6.47% |
1.84% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 108 |
Sumit Nagal |
1456 |
42.06% |
12.53% |
3.08% |
0.71% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 109 |
Tomas Machac |
1481 |
46.20% |
9.78% |
3.62% |
0.92% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 110 |
Mario Vilella Martinez |
1508 |
53.80% |
12.82% |
5.19% |
1.45% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 111 |
Kevin Anderson |
1724 |
54.31% |
42.79% |
29.43% |
15.73% |
4.67% |
2.04% |
0.65% |
| 112 |
Matteo Berrettini |
1694 |
45.69% |
34.61% |
22.54% |
11.20% |
3.02% |
1.20% |
0.35% |
| 113 |
Fabio Fognini |
1605 |
57.23% |
38.13% |
18.03% |
3.19% |
1.17% |
0.35% |
0.07% |
| 114 |
Pierre-Hugues Herbert |
1554 |
42.77% |
25.60% |
10.40% |
1.52% |
0.47% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 115 |
Henri Laaksonen |
1480 |
48.67% |
17.35% |
5.45% |
0.59% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 116 |
Salvatore Caruso |
1489 |
51.33% |
18.92% |
6.15% |
0.69% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 117 |
Pablo Cuevas |
1529 |
51.15% |
16.92% |
8.00% |
1.06% |
0.30% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 118 |
Andreas Seppi |
1521 |
48.85% |
15.71% |
7.25% |
0.93% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 119 |
Tennys Sandgren |
1498 |
23.24% |
10.71% |
4.59% |
0.53% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 120 |
Alex De Minaur |
1706 |
76.76% |
56.66% |
40.11% |
10.11% |
5.03% |
2.08% |
0.62% |
| 121 |
Daniel Evans |
1663 |
67.81% |
49.99% |
9.59% |
5.49% |
2.43% |
0.88% |
0.23% |
| 122 |
Cameron Norrie |
1534 |
32.19% |
18.38% |
2.17% |
0.87% |
0.25% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 123 |
Ilya Ivashka |
1487 |
50.81% |
16.24% |
1.59% |
0.54% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 124 |
Roman Safiullin |
1481 |
49.19% |
15.39% |
1.47% |
0.49% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 125 |
Michael Mmoh |
1451 |
46.11% |
2.93% |
0.96% |
0.29% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 126 |
Viktor Troicki |
1478 |
53.89% |
3.89% |
1.40% |
0.46% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 127 |
Laslo Djere |
1543 |
6.76% |
4.12% |
1.83% |
0.75% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 128 |
Rafael Nadal |
1998 |
93.24% |
89.07% |
80.98% |
72.50% |
60.04% |
46.13% |
30.39% |
