The 2nd week of the Australian Open is about to get under way, so it's time for me to update my predictions for the tournament, after the jump, I summarize what's happened so far, and present what I think is likely to happen for the rest of the event.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, all 4 of them are still in!
- Elina Svitolina has taken Simona Halep's place as the player with the easiest overall draw as she's 1.86 percentage points more likely to win the title than would be expected for the 7th best player remaining. On the other hand, Naomi Osaka has the toughest overall draw, but this now belongs to Aryna Sabalenka, as she is 1.55 percentage points less likely to win the title than the 5th best player is expected to.
- Ysaline Bonaventure had the easiest 1st round draw, but ended up losing her match against Timea Babos. The player who had the toughest 1st round draw, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova lost her first round match to Naomi Osaka as expected.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Ashleigh Barty remains the favourite for the title, with a 29.24% chance of winning the whole thing, with Naomi Osaka 2nd at 15.54%. The 3rd most likely winner is Simona Halep with 12.71%, and 4th is Elina Svitolina with 8.6%.
- As for the next match, it's Donna Vekic who has the easiest next match, as she's 23.81 percentage points more likely to make it to the quarter finals than a player of her ranking would expect. Iga Swiatek has the toughest next match, as she's 16.72 percentage points less likely to win than her ranking would expect to do.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashleigh Barty | 1923 | 86.62% | 61.86% | 46.95% | 29.24% |
| 2 | Shelby Rogers | 1599 | 13.38% | 3.88% | 1.34% | 0.28% |
| 3 | Elise Mertens | 1801 | 68.46% | 26.66% | 16.43% | 7.47% |
| 4 | Karolina Muchova | 1667 | 31.54% | 7.60% | 3.29% | 0.93% |
| 5 | Donna Vekic | 1589 | 37.19% | 11.20% | 2.11% | 0.43% |
| 6 | Jennifer Brady | 1680 | 62.81% | 26.13% | 7.17% | 2.14% |
| 7 | Jessica Pegula | 1625 | 28.26% | 13.26% | 2.91% | 0.69% |
| 8 | Elina Svitolina | 1786 | 71.74% | 49.41% | 19.80% | 8.60% |
| 9 | Hsieh Su-Wei | 1605 | 41.41% | 8.62% | 1.83% | 0.42% |
| 10 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1665 | 58.59% | 15.83% | 4.35% | 1.27% |
| 11 | Garbine Muguruza | 1780 | 36.65% | 25.29% | 10.64% | 4.60% |
| 12 | Naomi Osaka | 1876 | 63.35% | 50.26% | 27.86% | 15.54% |
| 13 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1830 | 47.77% | 24.84% | 13.53% | 6.74% |
| 14 | Serena Williams | 1846 | 52.23% | 28.26% | 15.98% | 8.29% |
| 15 | Iga Swiatek | 1668 | 24.69% | 6.73% | 2.25% | 0.66% |
| 16 | Simona Halep | 1862 | 75.31% | 40.17% | 23.56% | 12.71% |
