The 1st Grand Slam of the season is starting on Monday, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Women's bracket will turn out. After the jump I present a table with percentages for all 128 players and how they will do.
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But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Ashleigh Barty is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 22.27% chance of winning the whole thing, with Simona Halep next at 11.66%. The 3rd most likely is Naomi Osaka with 9.86% and Serena Williams is 4th with 7.87%
- Simona Halep has the easiest overall draw, as she is 1.8 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected at the expense of Naomi Osaka, who is 1.8 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, as she's 43.36 percentage points less likely to win than a player of her rank is expected to win. Ysaline Bonaventure got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's 40.75 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than her ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1916 |
93.57% |
84.87% |
72.16% |
59.28% |
44.94% |
33.87% |
22.27% |
| 2 |
Danka Kovinic |
1451 |
6.43% |
2.60% |
0.76% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 3 |
Sara Sorribes Tormo |
1491 |
43.01% |
4.75% |
1.62% |
0.50% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 4 |
Daria Gavrilova |
1540 |
56.99% |
7.78% |
3.16% |
1.17% |
0.33% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 5 |
Zheng Saisai |
1580 |
50.93% |
22.87% |
4.53% |
1.92% |
0.64% |
0.21% |
0.05% |
| 6 |
Barbora Krejcikova |
1574 |
49.07% |
21.61% |
4.18% |
1.73% |
0.56% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
| 7 |
Martina Trevisan |
1484 |
26.29% |
9.71% |
1.32% |
0.40% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 8 |
Ekaterina Alexandrova |
1663 |
73.71% |
45.81% |
12.27% |
6.56% |
2.87% |
1.24% |
0.40% |
| 9 |
Anett Kontaveit |
1726 |
72.61% |
55.71% |
37.80% |
13.90% |
7.27% |
3.76% |
1.51% |
| 10 |
Aliaksandra Sasnovich |
1556 |
27.39% |
15.19% |
6.87% |
1.40% |
0.43% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| 11 |
Kristyna Pliskova |
1528 |
53.10% |
16.06% |
6.65% |
1.21% |
0.33% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 12 |
Heather Watson |
1507 |
46.90% |
13.03% |
5.02% |
0.84% |
0.21% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 13 |
Francesca Jones |
1490 |
38.85% |
13.25% |
4.10% |
0.64% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 14 |
Shelby Rogers |
1569 |
61.15% |
27.13% |
11.02% |
2.36% |
0.75% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
| 15 |
Olga Danilovic |
1481 |
26.78% |
11.22% |
3.36% |
0.50% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 16 |
Petra Martic |
1656 |
73.22% |
48.39% |
25.19% |
7.39% |
3.17% |
1.34% |
0.42% |
| 17 |
Belinda Bencic |
1681 |
77.37% |
47.32% |
22.16% |
11.51% |
3.97% |
1.81% |
0.63% |
| 18 |
Lauren Davis |
1468 |
22.63% |
7.21% |
1.70% |
0.43% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 19 |
Svetlana Kuznetsova |
1632 |
61.36% |
30.43% |
12.44% |
5.63% |
1.65% |
0.64% |
0.19% |
| 20 |
Barbora Strycova |
1552 |
38.64% |
15.05% |
4.79% |
1.66% |
0.36% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 21 |
Zhu Lin |
1448 |
49.36% |
8.46% |
2.23% |
0.52% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 22 |
Whitney Osuigwe |
1452 |
50.64% |
8.85% |
2.37% |
0.56% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 23 |
Leylah Annie Fernandez |
1538 |
19.18% |
11.97% |
4.45% |
1.47% |
0.30% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 24 |
Elise Mertens |
1788 |
80.82% |
70.72% |
49.86% |
32.91% |
15.51% |
9.32% |
4.53% |
| 25 |
Karolina Muchova |
1639 |
49.88% |
35.58% |
15.48% |
6.41% |
1.92% |
0.77% |
0.23% |
| 26 |
Jelena Ostapenko |
1639 |
50.12% |
35.81% |
15.62% |
6.48% |
1.95% |
0.78% |
0.23% |
| 27 |
Mona Barthel |
1460 |
44.76% |
11.75% |
2.66% |
0.57% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 28 |
Elisabetta Cocciaretto |
1496 |
55.24% |
16.86% |
4.43% |
1.10% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 29 |
Danielle Collins |
1654 |
72.89% |
31.61% |
18.36% |
7.97% |
2.51% |
1.05% |
0.33% |
| 30 |
Ana Bogdan |
1482 |
27.11% |
6.39% |
2.23% |
0.53% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 31 |
Jasmine Paolini |
1494 |
18.81% |
6.54% |
2.38% |
0.59% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 32 |
Karolina Pliskova |
1748 |
81.19% |
55.47% |
38.84% |
21.67% |
9.15% |
5.00% |
2.16% |
| 33 |
Sofia Kenin |
1777 |
85.88% |
64.26% |
51.71% |
37.20% |
22.06% |
10.28% |
4.84% |
| 34 |
Maddison Inglis |
1463 |
14.12% |
4.68% |
1.90% |
0.61% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 35 |
Anastasija Sevastova |
1546 |
40.49% |
10.82% |
5.67% |
2.40% |
0.70% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 36 |
Kaia Kanepi |
1613 |
59.51% |
20.24% |
12.49% |
6.40% |
2.40% |
0.65% |
0.17% |
| 37 |
Nadia Podoroska |
1535 |
55.91% |
27.69% |
7.95% |
3.25% |
0.91% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
| 38 |
Christina McHale |
1493 |
44.09% |
19.24% |
4.70% |
1.67% |
0.40% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 39 |
Wang Yafan |
1509 |
42.80% |
20.96% |
5.46% |
2.05% |
0.52% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 40 |
Donna Vekic |
1560 |
57.20% |
32.12% |
10.12% |
4.46% |
1.38% |
0.30% |
0.07% |
| 41 |
Jennifer Brady |
1664 |
72.13% |
57.14% |
35.11% |
17.34% |
7.66% |
2.51% |
0.82% |
| 42 |
Aliona Bolsova |
1499 |
27.87% |
16.62% |
6.59% |
1.93% |
0.47% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 43 |
Madison Brengle |
1452 |
57.06% |
16.25% |
5.49% |
1.34% |
0.27% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 44 |
Arina Rodionova |
1403 |
42.94% |
9.99% |
2.80% |
0.56% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 45 |
Chloe Paquet |
1454 |
46.46% |
13.50% |
4.62% |
1.13% |
0.23% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 46 |
Mayar Sherif |
1478 |
53.54% |
17.09% |
6.36% |
1.72% |
0.39% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 47 |
Kaja Juvan |
1492 |
27.42% |
14.71% |
5.73% |
1.63% |
0.39% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 48 |
Johanna Konta |
1661 |
72.58% |
54.70% |
33.31% |
16.32% |
7.14% |
2.32% |
0.75% |
| 49 |
Victoria Azarenka |
1769 |
73.31% |
60.22% |
39.56% |
25.00% |
15.75% |
7.18% |
3.31% |
| 50 |
Jessica Pegula |
1593 |
26.69% |
16.74% |
7.19% |
2.89% |
1.16% |
0.29% |
0.07% |
| 51 |
Destanee Aiava |
1479 |
43.89% |
9.10% |
2.64% |
0.71% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 52 |
Samantha Stosur |
1521 |
56.11% |
13.94% |
4.74% |
1.49% |
0.47% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 53 |
Nao Hibino |
1539 |
60.02% |
18.51% |
6.01% |
2.01% |
0.67% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 54 |
Astra Sharma |
1469 |
39.98% |
9.28% |
2.32% |
0.59% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 55 |
Kristina Mladenovic |
1558 |
26.88% |
15.23% |
5.28% |
1.89% |
0.68% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 56 |
Maria Sakkari |
1732 |
73.12% |
56.97% |
32.27% |
18.89% |
11.02% |
4.51% |
1.86% |
| 57 |
Yulia Putintseva |
1650 |
65.35% |
43.72% |
19.64% |
8.64% |
4.11% |
1.28% |
0.40% |
| 58 |
Sloane Stephens |
1540 |
34.65% |
17.97% |
5.61% |
1.71% |
0.57% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 59 |
Alison Van Uytvanck |
1553 |
58.83% |
24.51% |
8.01% |
2.55% |
0.89% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
| 60 |
Clara Burel |
1491 |
41.17% |
13.80% |
3.57% |
0.90% |
0.25% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 61 |
Coco Gauff |
1604 |
63.26% |
21.77% |
11.48% |
4.37% |
1.81% |
0.48% |
0.12% |
| 62 |
Jil Teichmann |
1510 |
36.74% |
8.81% |
3.50% |
0.95% |
0.28% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 63 |
Marie Bouzkova |
1558 |
22.80% |
11.02% |
5.09% |
1.65% |
0.59% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| 64 |
Elina Svitolina |
1769 |
77.20% |
58.41% |
43.10% |
25.78% |
16.27% |
7.43% |
3.43% |
| 65 |
Bianca Andreescu |
1767 |
80.20% |
59.99% |
44.66% |
27.82% |
14.44% |
6.78% |
3.16% |
| 66 |
Mihaela Buzarnescu |
1524 |
19.80% |
8.38% |
3.55% |
1.12% |
0.26% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 67 |
Hsieh Su-Wei |
1572 |
48.22% |
14.90% |
7.31% |
2.71% |
0.76% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
| 68 |
Tsvetana Pironkova |
1584 |
51.78% |
16.73% |
8.50% |
3.29% |
0.97% |
0.24% |
0.06% |
| 69 |
Kirsten Flipkens |
1496 |
33.90% |
13.47% |
3.55% |
1.01% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 70 |
Venus Williams |
1612 |
66.10% |
36.99% |
14.79% |
6.24% |
2.03% |
0.57% |
0.16% |
| 71 |
Sara Errani |
1509 |
36.64% |
15.07% |
4.19% |
1.25% |
0.27% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 72 |
Wang Qiang |
1604 |
63.36% |
34.47% |
13.45% |
5.55% |
1.76% |
0.48% |
0.13% |
| 73 |
Marketa Vondrousova |
1645 |
63.54% |
43.95% |
19.27% |
9.15% |
3.33% |
1.05% |
0.33% |
| 74 |
Rebecca Peterson |
1548 |
36.46% |
20.53% |
6.60% |
2.32% |
0.60% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| 75 |
Rebecca Marino |
1496 |
47.85% |
16.52% |
4.39% |
1.27% |
0.27% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 76 |
Kimberly Birrell |
1511 |
52.15% |
19.01% |
5.35% |
1.64% |
0.36% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 77 |
Patricia Maria Tig |
1545 |
51.15% |
14.06% |
6.44% |
2.24% |
0.57% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 78 |
Sorana Cirstea |
1537 |
48.85% |
13.02% |
5.83% |
1.96% |
0.48% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 79 |
Greet Minnen |
1476 |
15.56% |
6.34% |
2.32% |
0.62% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 80 |
Petra Kvitova |
1770 |
84.44% |
66.58% |
49.80% |
31.80% |
16.62% |
7.86% |
3.70% |
| 81 |
Garbine Muguruza |
1770 |
80.57% |
65.71% |
48.52% |
25.66% |
15.35% |
7.26% |
3.42% |
| 82 |
Margarita Gasparyan |
1523 |
19.43% |
10.08% |
4.23% |
1.03% |
0.29% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 83 |
Liudmila Samsonova |
1468 |
40.10% |
8.11% |
2.83% |
0.55% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 84 |
Paula Badosa |
1537 |
59.90% |
16.10% |
7.08% |
1.83% |
0.55% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 85 |
Zarina Diyas |
1498 |
50.28% |
17.07% |
4.71% |
1.05% |
0.27% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 86 |
Tamara Zidansek |
1496 |
49.72% |
16.75% |
4.59% |
1.01% |
0.26% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 87 |
Bernada Pera |
1528 |
31.94% |
17.36% |
5.34% |
1.33% |
0.38% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 88 |
Angelique Kerber |
1659 |
68.06% |
48.82% |
22.70% |
8.89% |
4.01% |
1.33% |
0.44% |
| 89 |
Ons Jabeur |
1663 |
64.83% |
47.67% |
17.12% |
8.33% |
3.80% |
1.28% |
0.43% |
| 90 |
Andrea Petkovic |
1556 |
35.17% |
21.14% |
5.19% |
1.83% |
0.59% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| 91 |
Mayo Hibi |
1490 |
51.52% |
16.39% |
3.07% |
0.85% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 92 |
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova |
1480 |
48.48% |
14.80% |
2.65% |
0.71% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 93 |
Polona Hercog |
1542 |
40.92% |
7.60% |
3.36% |
1.13% |
0.34% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 94 |
Caroline Garcia |
1606 |
59.08% |
14.40% |
7.62% |
3.15% |
1.21% |
0.33% |
0.09% |
| 95 |
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova |
1642 |
21.99% |
12.93% |
7.47% |
3.44% |
1.48% |
0.46% |
0.14% |
| 96 |
Naomi Osaka |
1862 |
78.01% |
65.07% |
53.52% |
39.21% |
27.90% |
16.65% |
9.86% |
| 97 |
Aryna Sabalenka |
1819 |
87.93% |
70.40% |
56.50% |
34.89% |
20.67% |
12.08% |
6.48% |
| 98 |
Viktoria Kuzmova |
1474 |
12.07% |
4.36% |
1.59% |
0.36% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 99 |
Katie Boulter |
1517 |
37.16% |
7.40% |
3.12% |
0.83% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 100 |
Daria Kasatkina |
1608 |
62.84% |
17.84% |
9.81% |
3.56% |
1.17% |
0.37% |
0.10% |
| 101 |
Alize Cornet |
1607 |
68.69% |
38.06% |
12.38% |
4.48% |
1.47% |
0.46% |
0.12% |
| 102 |
Valeria Savinykh |
1471 |
31.31% |
11.33% |
2.18% |
0.49% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 103 |
Ann Li |
1554 |
46.02% |
22.33% |
6.01% |
1.83% |
0.50% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| 104 |
Zhang Shuai |
1582 |
53.98% |
28.28% |
8.42% |
2.81% |
0.85% |
0.24% |
0.06% |
| 105 |
Alison Riske |
1603 |
57.85% |
42.34% |
13.60% |
4.89% |
1.58% |
0.48% |
0.13% |
| 106 |
Anastasia Potapova |
1548 |
42.15% |
28.05% |
7.43% |
2.21% |
0.58% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 107 |
Timea Babos |
1409 |
45.13% |
12.37% |
1.88% |
0.32% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 108 |
Ysaline Bonaventure |
1443 |
54.87% |
17.25% |
3.03% |
0.60% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 109 |
Nina Stojanovic |
1458 |
39.96% |
5.75% |
2.26% |
0.47% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 110 |
Irina-Camelia Begu |
1529 |
60.04% |
11.87% |
5.81% |
1.61% |
0.40% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 111 |
Laura Siegemund |
1601 |
20.50% |
13.09% |
7.69% |
2.74% |
0.88% |
0.27% |
0.07% |
| 112 |
Serena Williams |
1836 |
79.50% |
69.29% |
58.30% |
37.90% |
23.25% |
14.10% |
7.87% |
| 113 |
Iga Swiatek |
1645 |
71.89% |
43.47% |
22.63% |
8.01% |
2.81% |
1.00% |
0.31% |
| 114 |
Arantxa Rus |
1481 |
28.11% |
10.72% |
3.29% |
0.65% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 115 |
Yaroslava Shvedova |
1473 |
31.16% |
10.35% |
3.08% |
0.58% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 116 |
Camila Giorgi |
1611 |
68.84% |
35.46% |
16.81% |
5.33% |
1.66% |
0.52% |
0.14% |
| 117 |
Fiona Ferro |
1589 |
60.66% |
24.83% |
12.10% |
3.56% |
1.03% |
0.30% |
0.08% |
| 118 |
Katerina Siniakova |
1514 |
39.34% |
12.37% |
4.76% |
1.06% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 119 |
Vera Zvonareva |
1526 |
26.69% |
12.07% |
4.84% |
1.13% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 120 |
Elena Rybakina |
1702 |
73.31% |
50.73% |
32.49% |
13.66% |
5.73% |
2.45% |
0.94% |
| 121 |
Veronika Kudermetova |
1646 |
67.76% |
46.79% |
15.18% |
7.96% |
2.81% |
1.01% |
0.32% |
| 122 |
Marta Kostyuk |
1517 |
32.24% |
16.60% |
3.42% |
1.20% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 123 |
Varvara Gracheva |
1511 |
51.05% |
18.92% |
3.80% |
1.30% |
0.28% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 124 |
Anna Blinkova |
1503 |
48.95% |
17.68% |
3.45% |
1.15% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 125 |
Misaki Doi |
1415 |
35.86% |
3.88% |
1.14% |
0.27% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 126 |
Ajla Tomljanovic |
1516 |
64.14% |
10.77% |
4.53% |
1.58% |
0.34% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 127 |
Lizette Cabrera |
1445 |
8.74% |
3.94% |
1.29% |
0.34% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 128 |
Simona Halep |
1852 |
91.26% |
81.42% |
67.19% |
52.22% |
32.10% |
20.14% |
11.66% |
