The Miami tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Men's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table for percentages for all 96 players competing and how they will do.
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But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Daniil Medvedev is the favourite to win the title, as he has a 23.86% chance of winning the tournament, Andrey Rublev is 2nd favourite with 17.12%, Alexander Zverev 3rd with 16.6% and Stefanos Tsitsipas 4th with 9.53%
- Diego Schwartzman has the easiest overall draw, as he is 0.57 percentage points more likely ro win the title than expected.
- On the other hand, Kevin Anderson had the toughest overall draw, he is 0.78 percentage points less likely to win the title than expected.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Thiago Monteiro, as he's 25.4 percentage points less likely to make it to round 2 than a player with his ELO rating would expect.
- Paolo Lorenzi has the easiest 1st round draw, he is 27.12 percentage points more likely to progress to round 2 than his ranking would suggest.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniil Medvedev | 1889 | 100.00% | 88.04% | 75.76% | 64.62% | 51.43% | 35.47% | 23.86% |
| 2 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Sam Querrey | 1577 | 67.68% | 9.59% | 4.85% | 2.44% | 0.98% | 0.29% | 0.08% |
| 4 | Yen-Hsun Lu | 1448 | 32.32% | 2.36% | 0.78% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 5 | Feliciano Lopez | 1565 | 52.01% | 24.45% | 4.39% | 2.14% | 0.83% | 0.24% | 0.06% |
| 6 | Alexei Popyrin | 1551 | 47.99% | 21.60% | 3.66% | 1.71% | 0.63% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 7 | Reilly Opelka | 1586 | 100.00% | 53.95% | 10.57% | 5.44% | 2.26% | 0.70% | 0.20% |
| 8 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 9 | Daniel Evans | 1644 | 100.00% | 65.38% | 45.71% | 13.48% | 6.69% | 2.54% | 0.90% |
| 10 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Frances Tiafoe | 1552 | 56.17% | 20.82% | 12.08% | 2.54% | 0.94% | 0.26% | 0.06% |
| 12 | Stefano Travaglia | 1509 | 43.83% | 13.80% | 7.17% | 1.27% | 0.40% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 13 | Ernesto Escobedo | 1435 | 51.56% | 18.81% | 5.18% | 0.66% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 14 | Paolo Lorenzi | 1424 | 48.44% | 16.98% | 4.47% | 0.54% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Dusan Lajovic | 1531 | 100.00% | 64.21% | 25.38% | 4.90% | 1.69% | 0.43% | 0.10% |
| 16 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 17 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1657 | 100.00% | 64.18% | 35.54% | 18.58% | 6.43% | 2.55% | 0.94% |
| 18 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert | 1596 | 69.53% | 28.66% | 13.37% | 5.87% | 1.66% | 0.53% | 0.16% |
| 20 | Pedro Sousa | 1452 | 30.47% | 7.16% | 2.00% | 0.53% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 21 | Vasek Pospisil | 1597 | 60.12% | 25.69% | 11.82% | 5.22% | 1.48% | 0.48% | 0.14% |
| 22 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1526 | 39.88% | 13.21% | 4.80% | 1.68% | 0.37% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 23 | John Isner | 1648 | 100.00% | 61.10% | 32.47% | 16.57% | 5.58% | 2.14% | 0.77% |
| 24 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 25 | Jan-Lennard Struff | 1577 | 100.00% | 63.04% | 23.26% | 9.92% | 2.62% | 0.79% | 0.22% |
| 26 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Federico Gaio | 1432 | 38.45% | 11.67% | 2.44% | 0.60% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 28 | Ricardas Berankis | 1514 | 61.55% | 25.29% | 7.41% | 2.54% | 0.53% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 29 | Lloyd Harris | 1591 | 64.05% | 20.93% | 11.82% | 5.27% | 1.46% | 0.46% | 0.13% |
| 30 | Emilio Nava | 1490 | 35.95% | 7.70% | 3.26% | 1.02% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 31 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1716 | 100.00% | 71.38% | 51.81% | 32.20% | 13.31% | 6.28% | 2.81% |
| 32 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 33 | Alexander Zverev | 1850 | 100.00% | 87.64% | 75.60% | 57.74% | 44.30% | 26.58% | 16.60% |
| 34 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1513 | 50.68% | 6.34% | 3.02% | 0.99% | 0.33% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 36 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1508 | 49.32% | 6.02% | 2.83% | 0.91% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 37 | Alejandro Tabilo | 1504 | 52.75% | 22.67% | 3.76% | 1.19% | 0.39% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 38 | Mikael Ymer | 1485 | 47.25% | 19.05% | 2.91% | 0.86% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 39 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1554 | 100.00% | 58.27% | 11.88% | 4.50% | 1.74% | 0.44% | 0.11% |
| 40 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 41 | Jannik Sinner | 1683 | 100.00% | 70.06% | 41.14% | 15.68% | 8.83% | 3.46% | 1.39% |
| 42 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Hugo Gaston | 1505 | 42.67% | 11.28% | 3.90% | 0.80% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 44 | Dominik Koepfer | 1556 | 57.33% | 18.67% | 7.70% | 1.92% | 0.75% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 45 | Steve Johnson | 1532 | 52.18% | 16.82% | 5.98% | 1.36% | 0.49% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 46 | Yannick Hanfmann | 1517 | 47.82% | 14.52% | 4.88% | 1.05% | 0.36% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 47 | Karen Khachanov | 1662 | 100.00% | 68.67% | 36.40% | 13.00% | 6.94% | 2.55% | 0.96% |
| 48 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 49 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1713 | 100.00% | 70.84% | 47.41% | 31.01% | 13.67% | 5.87% | 2.60% |
| 50 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Cameron Norrie | 1561 | 50.68% | 14.92% | 6.86% | 3.07% | 0.81% | 0.21% | 0.05% |
| 52 | Yoshihito Nishioka | 1557 | 49.32% | 14.24% | 6.46% | 2.84% | 0.74% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 53 | Marcos Giron | 1529 | 47.07% | 17.47% | 5.50% | 2.21% | 0.52% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 54 | Tommy Paul | 1549 | 52.93% | 21.11% | 7.18% | 3.08% | 0.78% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 55 | Taylor Fritz | 1620 | 100.00% | 61.42% | 26.59% | 14.07% | 4.62% | 1.48% | 0.48% |
| 56 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 57 | Alexander Bublik | 1586 | 100.00% | 55.35% | 26.27% | 10.97% | 3.19% | 0.90% | 0.26% |
| 58 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Jiri Vesely | 1549 | 50.10% | 22.39% | 9.52% | 3.51% | 0.89% | 0.22% | 0.05% |
| 60 | Laslo Djere | 1549 | 49.90% | 22.26% | 9.45% | 3.48% | 0.88% | 0.22% | 0.05% |
| 61 | James Duckworth | 1441 | 49.81% | 11.47% | 3.71% | 0.90% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Mischa Zverev | 1443 | 50.19% | 11.63% | 3.78% | 0.92% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 63 | David Goffin | 1651 | 100.00% | 76.90% | 47.26% | 23.93% | 8.71% | 3.09% | 1.12% |
| 64 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 65 | Diego Schwartzman | 1716 | 100.00% | 81.17% | 57.03% | 37.74% | 17.09% | 8.40% | 3.37% |
| 66 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 67 | Salvatore Caruso | 1467 | 51.47% | 9.92% | 3.60% | 1.16% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 68 | Yasutaka Uchiyama | 1457 | 48.53% | 8.91% | 3.12% | 0.97% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 69 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1590 | 65.37% | 34.49% | 13.50% | 6.59% | 2.00% | 0.65% | 0.17% |
| 70 | Liam Broady | 1479 | 34.63% | 12.87% | 3.40% | 1.15% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 71 | Adrian Mannarino | 1570 | 100.00% | 52.64% | 19.35% | 8.93% | 2.52% | 0.77% | 0.18% |
| 72 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 73 | Aslan Karatsev | 1626 | 100.00% | 66.84% | 36.18% | 17.04% | 5.85% | 2.17% | 0.64% |
| 74 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Jack Draper | 1500 | 48.88% | 15.96% | 5.84% | 1.81% | 0.39% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 76 | Mikhail Kukushkin | 1508 | 51.12% | 17.20% | 6.47% | 2.07% | 0.46% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 77 | Sebastian Korda | 1554 | 50.49% | 20.14% | 9.18% | 3.46% | 0.92% | 0.26% | 0.06% |
| 78 | Radu Albot | 1551 | 49.51% | 19.51% | 8.80% | 3.28% | 0.86% | 0.24% | 0.05% |
| 79 | Fabio Fognini | 1626 | 100.00% | 60.35% | 33.53% | 15.79% | 5.42% | 2.01% | 0.59% |
| 80 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 81 | Christian Garin | 1644 | 100.00% | 60.62% | 40.19% | 12.92% | 6.56% | 2.59% | 0.81% |
| 82 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Marin Cilic | 1605 | 65.24% | 28.99% | 17.75% | 4.96% | 2.25% | 0.78% | 0.21% |
| 84 | Federico Coria | 1495 | 34.76% | 10.39% | 4.77% | 0.86% | 0.27% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 85 | Michael Mmoh | 1454 | 33.36% | 14.41% | 4.10% | 0.62% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 86 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1575 | 66.64% | 40.18% | 17.66% | 4.40% | 1.82% | 0.56% | 0.14% |
| 87 | Benoit Paire | 1502 | 100.00% | 45.41% | 15.53% | 2.88% | 0.92% | 0.21% | 0.04% |
| 88 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 89 | Marton Fucsovics | 1662 | 100.00% | 73.00% | 22.05% | 13.26% | 7.06% | 2.95% | 0.99% |
| 90 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Shintaro Mochizuki | 1490 | 50.37% | 13.67% | 2.09% | 0.76% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 92 | Thanasi Kokkinakis | 1487 | 49.63% | 13.32% | 2.01% | 0.73% | 0.22% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 93 | Pedro Martinez | 1510 | 53.21% | 6.45% | 2.31% | 0.91% | 0.30% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 94 | Tennys Sandgren | 1488 | 46.79% | 5.06% | 1.67% | 0.61% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 95 | Andrey Rublev | 1854 | 100.00% | 88.50% | 69.87% | 57.09% | 43.89% | 29.53% | 17.12% |
| 96 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 97 | Denis Shapovalov | 1674 | 100.00% | 73.16% | 42.62% | 21.08% | 9.01% | 3.79% | 1.33% |
| 98 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 99 | Kwon Soon-Woo | 1518 | 55.86% | 16.12% | 5.92% | 1.75% | 0.43% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 100 | Ilya Ivashka | 1477 | 44.14% | 10.72% | 3.39% | 0.85% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 101 | Jeremy Chardy | 1665 | 78.68% | 48.25% | 26.48% | 12.76% | 5.30% | 2.16% | 0.73% |
| 102 | Denis Kudla | 1438 | 21.32% | 6.41% | 1.66% | 0.35% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 103 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1585 | 100.00% | 45.34% | 19.93% | 7.49% | 2.37% | 0.74% | 0.19% |
| 104 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 105 | Ugo Humbert | 1648 | 100.00% | 74.40% | 32.43% | 16.79% | 6.60% | 2.55% | 0.81% |
| 106 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 107 | Christopher O'Connell | 1482 | 56.61% | 15.72% | 3.79% | 1.13% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 108 | Joao Sousa | 1435 | 43.39% | 9.87% | 1.96% | 0.48% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 109 | Jordan Thompson | 1531 | 54.89% | 12.63% | 5.10% | 1.83% | 0.47% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 110 | Federico Delbonis | 1497 | 45.11% | 8.90% | 3.21% | 1.01% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 111 | Milos Raonic | 1741 | 100.00% | 78.47% | 53.52% | 34.47% | 17.78% | 8.99% | 3.89% |
| 112 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 113 | Alex De Minaur | 1688 | 100.00% | 73.93% | 51.43% | 20.78% | 10.82% | 4.73% | 1.73% |
| 114 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Daniel Elahi Galan | 1506 | 49.76% | 12.92% | 5.79% | 1.16% | 0.33% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 116 | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 1507 | 50.24% | 13.15% | 5.92% | 1.20% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 117 | Bjorn Fratangelo | 1451 | 33.13% | 12.26% | 3.19% | 0.50% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 118 | Fernando Verdasco | 1573 | 66.87% | 36.28% | 14.75% | 3.92% | 1.43% | 0.43% | 0.10% |
| 119 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1543 | 100.00% | 51.45% | 18.93% | 4.46% | 1.46% | 0.39% | 0.08% |
| 120 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 121 | Kei Nishikori | 1697 | 100.00% | 71.01% | 26.42% | 16.12% | 8.60% | 3.86% | 1.45% |
| 122 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Aljaz Bedene | 1579 | 68.98% | 23.23% | 5.49% | 2.47% | 0.92% | 0.28% | 0.07% |
| 124 | Thomas Fabbiano | 1440 | 31.02% | 5.76% | 0.72% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 125 | Kevin Anderson | 1713 | 74.72% | 25.16% | 14.54% | 9.18% | 5.10% | 2.39% | 0.95% |
| 126 | Thiago Monteiro | 1525 | 25.28% | 3.71% | 1.21% | 0.46% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 127 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1831 | 100.00% | 71.13% | 51.62% | 39.56% | 27.97% | 17.35% | 9.53% |
| 128 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
