We're down to the last 16, so I'm going to update my Miami predictions, but firstly, after the jump, a look at how the early rounds went.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 3 of them are still in. Alexander Zverev lost in round 2 to Emil Ruusuvuori.
- Diego Schwartzmanm the player with the easiest overall draw, is still in the tournament. Kevin Anderson, who had the toughest overall draw, lost in round 1 to Damir Dzumhur.
- Paolo Lorenzi had the easiest 1st round draw, but he ended up losing his round 1 match to Ernesto Escobedo. Thiago Monteiro had the toughest 1st round draw, but he withdrew after my blog post was made.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like.
- Daniil Medvedev is the favourite to win the title with a 31.91% chance, Andrey Rublev is the 2nd favourite at 20.82%, Stefanos Tsitsipas is 3rd at 18.04%, and Milos Raonic 4th most likely with 6.39%.
- The easiest draw relative to his ranking has gone to Alexander Bublik. He is 0.53 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than his ranking suggests. Bublik also has the easiest next match, as he's 15.24 percentage points more likely to win in round 4 than expected.
- On the other hand, Roberto Bautista Agut has the toughest overall draw, as he's 0.3 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- Marin Cilic has the toughest 4th round match, as he's 19.87 percentage points less likely to make it to the quarter finals than a player of his ranking would expect.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniil Medvedev | 1894 | 85.72% | 64.14% | 51.47% | 31.91% |
| 2 | Frances Tiafoe | 1582 | 14.28% | 4.77% | 1.97% | 0.45% |
| 3 | John Isner | 1665 | 40.91% | 11.03% | 5.81% | 1.84% |
| 4 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1729 | 59.09% | 20.06% | 12.34% | 4.90% |
| 5 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1545 | 29.30% | 11.48% | 2.13% | 0.41% |
| 6 | Jannik Sinner | 1698 | 70.70% | 42.97% | 14.59% | 5.20% |
| 7 | Taylor Fritz | 1637 | 55.00% | 26.24% | 7.13% | 2.02% |
| 8 | Alexander Bublik | 1602 | 45.00% | 19.32% | 4.57% | 1.13% |
| 9 | Diego Schwartzman | 1726 | 68.96% | 26.31% | 11.18% | 4.71% |
| 10 | Sebastian Korda | 1588 | 31.04% | 7.05% | 1.82% | 0.47% |
| 11 | Marin Cilic | 1632 | 21.04% | 9.00% | 2.76% | 0.85% |
| 12 | Andrey Rublev | 1862 | 78.96% | 57.64% | 35.02% | 20.82% |
| 13 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1604 | 29.76% | 7.88% | 2.14% | 0.59% |
| 14 | Milos Raonic | 1753 | 70.24% | 30.97% | 14.05% | 6.39% |
| 15 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1560 | 16.72% | 5.09% | 1.16% | 0.27% |
| 16 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1839 | 83.28% | 56.06% | 31.87% | 18.04% |
