We're down to the last 16, so I'm going to update my Miami predictions, but firstly, after the jump, a look at how the early rounds went.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 3 of them are still in. Simona Halep withdraw from her round 3 match.
- Ashleigh Barty and Naomi Osaka, the players with the easiest and toughest overall draws respectively, are both still in the tournament.
- Hailey Baptiste had the easiest 1st round draw, but she ended up losing her round 1 match to Kristina Kucova. Kristina Mladenovic had the toughest 1st round draw, and lost as expected to Danielle Collins.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like.
- Naomi Osaka is the favourite to win the title with a 20.32% chance, Ashleigh Barty is the 2nd favourite at 19.14%, Garbine Muguruza is 3rd at 12.89%, and Aryna Sabalenka 4th most likely with 9.87%.
- The easiest draw relative to her ranking has gone to Petra Kvitova. She is 1.52 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than her ranking suggests.
- On the other hand, Victoria Azarenka has the toughest overall draw, as she's 1.67 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- Elise Mertens has the toughest 4th round match, as she's 24.69 percentage points less likely to make it to the quarter finals than a player of her ranking would expect.
- The player with the easiest next match compared to their ranking is Ons Jabeur. She's 25.23 percentage points more likely to make it to the next round than expected.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashleigh Barty | 1899 | 66.59% | 44.13% | 31.60% | 19.14% |
| 2 | Victoria Azarenka | 1779 | 33.41% | 16.78% | 9.50% | 4.21% |
| 3 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1667 | 29.17% | 7.41% | 3.08% | 0.93% |
| 4 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1821 | 70.83% | 31.68% | 19.70% | 9.87% |
| 5 | Anastasija Sevastova | 1579 | 49.42% | 12.04% | 2.31% | 0.49% |
| 6 | Ana Konjuh | 1583 | 50.58% | 12.54% | 2.45% | 0.52% |
| 7 | Petra Kvitova | 1787 | 53.21% | 40.72% | 17.50% | 7.95% |
| 8 | Elina Svitolina | 1764 | 46.79% | 34.69% | 13.86% | 5.88% |
| 9 | Bianca Andreescu | 1763 | 38.76% | 25.23% | 10.46% | 4.53% |
| 10 | Garbine Muguruza | 1843 | 61.24% | 45.64% | 23.82% | 12.89% |
| 11 | Sara Sorribes Tormo | 1589 | 36.01% | 7.90% | 1.70% | 0.38% |
| 12 | Ons Jabeur | 1689 | 63.99% | 21.23% | 6.82% | 2.29% |
| 13 | Jessica Pegula | 1690 | 45.99% | 12.21% | 4.78% | 1.61% |
| 14 | Maria Sakkari | 1718 | 54.01% | 16.07% | 6.88% | 2.56% |
| 15 | Elise Mertens | 1809 | 36.55% | 23.56% | 13.00% | 6.43% |
| 16 | Naomi Osaka | 1905 | 63.45% | 48.15% | 32.55% | 20.32% |
