The Miami tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Women's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table for percentages for all 96 players competing and how they will do.
 |
| Miami Open logo, © Miami Open |
But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Ashleigh Barty is the favourite to win the title, as she has a 17.94% chance of winning the tournament, Naomi Osaka is 2nd favourite with 17.30%, Simona Halep 3rd with 11.57% and Garbine Muguruza 4th with 10.21%
- Barty has the easiest overall draw at the expense of Osaka, with Barty 0.64 percentage points more likely to win than Osaka, even though Osaka is the higher ranked player.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Kristina Mladenovic, as she's 22.87 percentage points less like to make it to round 2 than a player with her ELO rating would expect.
- Hailey Baptiste has the easiest 1st round draw, she is 15.96 percentage points more likely to progress to round 2 than her ranking would suggest.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashleigh Barty | 1894 | 100.00% | 91.74% | 77.85% | 58.23% | 42.18% | 28.43% | 17.94% |
| 2 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Hailey Baptiste | 1500 | 59.44% | 5.58% | 2.08% | 0.54% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Kristina Kucova | 1433 | 40.56% | 2.68% | 0.78% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 5 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1622 | 68.27% | 37.16% | 8.04% | 3.26% | 1.23% | 0.40% | 0.11% |
| 6 | Wang Xiyu | 1489 | 31.73% | 11.33% | 1.41% | 0.35% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Alison Riske | 1591 | 100.00% | 51.51% | 9.85% | 3.61% | 1.22% | 0.35% | 0.09% |
| 8 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 9 | Angelique Kerber | 1630 | 100.00% | 69.26% | 26.06% | 6.92% | 2.68% | 0.89% | 0.26% |
| 10 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Nao Hibino | 1502 | 54.29% | 17.60% | 4.10% | 0.66% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 12 | Renata Zarazua | 1472 | 45.71% | 13.15% | 2.70% | 0.38% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Christina McHale | 1467 | 33.76% | 5.10% | 1.73% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 14 | Laura Siegemund | 1584 | 66.24% | 17.14% | 8.49% | 1.90% | 0.63% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 15 | Victoria Azarenka | 1767 | 100.00% | 77.76% | 56.92% | 23.76% | 13.53% | 6.90% | 3.19% |
| 16 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 17 | Belinda Bencic | 1680 | 100.00% | 64.35% | 38.25% | 16.13% | 5.35% | 2.10% | 0.73% |
| 18 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Zarina Diyas | 1529 | 39.15% | 11.59% | 4.48% | 1.10% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 20 | Venus Williams | 1606 | 60.85% | 24.06% | 11.83% | 3.90% | 0.98% | 0.30% | 0.08% |
| 21 | Aliona Bolsova | 1484 | 38.50% | 10.77% | 3.10% | 0.63% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 22 | Wang Qiang | 1565 | 61.50% | 23.54% | 9.18% | 2.60% | 0.56% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 23 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1648 | 100.00% | 65.69% | 33.16% | 12.65% | 3.75% | 1.33% | 0.41% |
| 24 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 25 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1634 | 100.00% | 50.23% | 16.48% | 8.15% | 2.29% | 0.77% | 0.23% |
| 26 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Kristina Mladenovic | 1561 | 34.74% | 13.76% | 3.43% | 1.35% | 0.28% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 28 | Danielle Collins | 1670 | 65.26% | 36.01% | 13.38% | 7.30% | 2.34% | 0.89% | 0.30% |
| 29 | Tsvetana Pironkova | 1574 | 58.90% | 11.93% | 4.90% | 2.01% | 0.45% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 30 | Marta Kostyuk | 1511 | 41.10% | 6.19% | 2.03% | 0.67% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 31 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1811 | 100.00% | 81.88% | 59.79% | 43.51% | 21.59% | 12.29% | 6.43% |
| 32 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 33 | Simona Halep | 1856 | 100.00% | 84.44% | 68.23% | 50.14% | 34.76% | 19.86% | 11.57% |
| 34 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Mihaela Buzarnescu | 1504 | 37.66% | 4.39% | 1.61% | 0.45% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 36 | Caroline Garcia | 1592 | 62.34% | 11.17% | 5.44% | 2.09% | 0.72% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 37 | Olga Danilovic | 1488 | 42.39% | 12.46% | 1.88% | 0.49% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 38 | Anastasija Sevastova | 1541 | 57.61% | 20.81% | 3.96% | 1.27% | 0.36% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 39 | Coco Gauff | 1640 | 100.00% | 66.73% | 18.87% | 8.50% | 3.46% | 1.03% | 0.31% |
| 40 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 41 | Madison Keys | 1707 | 100.00% | 73.74% | 41.25% | 16.77% | 8.34% | 3.13% | 1.20% |
| 42 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Katerina Siniakova | 1501 | 43.39% | 10.14% | 2.90% | 0.56% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 44 | Ana Konjuh | 1547 | 56.61% | 16.12% | 5.50% | 1.27% | 0.37% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 45 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1627 | 72.34% | 29.00% | 13.13% | 4.11% | 1.60% | 0.45% | 0.13% |
| 46 | Anna Blinkova | 1460 | 27.66% | 5.63% | 1.40% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 47 | Iga Swiatek | 1697 | 100.00% | 65.37% | 35.83% | 14.13% | 6.83% | 2.48% | 0.92% |
| 48 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 49 | Petra Kvitova | 1775 | 100.00% | 71.37% | 51.90% | 32.42% | 16.75% | 7.77% | 3.68% |
| 50 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Alize Cornet | 1584 | 42.29% | 10.58% | 5.03% | 1.86% | 0.52% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 52 | Svetlana Kuznetsova | 1638 | 57.71% | 18.05% | 9.95% | 4.38% | 1.49% | 0.44% | 0.13% |
| 53 | Magda Linette | 1566 | 60.36% | 24.22% | 6.94% | 2.40% | 0.63% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 54 | Robin Montgomery | 1493 | 39.64% | 12.11% | 2.56% | 0.67% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 55 | Johanna Konta | 1636 | 100.00% | 63.67% | 23.62% | 10.31% | 3.48% | 1.02% | 0.30% |
| 56 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 57 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1639 | 100.00% | 70.26% | 28.41% | 11.94% | 4.08% | 1.21% | 0.36% |
| 58 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Nadia Podoroska | 1508 | 56.34% | 18.05% | 4.50% | 1.18% | 0.24% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 60 | Mayar Sherif | 1464 | 43.66% | 11.68% | 2.41% | 0.53% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 61 | Shelby Rogers | 1614 | 70.88% | 22.13% | 11.63% | 4.51% | 1.41% | 0.38% | 0.10% |
| 62 | Madison Brengle | 1459 | 29.12% | 4.58% | 1.46% | 0.31% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 63 | Elina Svitolina | 1751 | 100.00% | 73.29% | 51.59% | 29.49% | 14.29% | 6.18% | 2.73% |
| 64 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 65 | Bianca Andreescu | 1753 | 100.00% | 84.10% | 60.12% | 29.14% | 17.35% | 7.72% | 3.31% |
| 66 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 67 | Yaroslava Shvedova | 1462 | 49.41% | 7.78% | 2.55% | 0.44% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 68 | Tereza Martincova | 1466 | 50.59% | 8.12% | 2.71% | 0.48% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 69 | Sloane Stephens | 1510 | 51.42% | 17.17% | 4.40% | 0.93% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 70 | Oceane Dodin | 1500 | 48.58% | 15.62% | 3.85% | 0.78% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 71 | Amanda Anisimova | 1630 | 100.00% | 67.22% | 26.36% | 8.78% | 3.73% | 1.09% | 0.30% |
| 72 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 73 | Petra Martic | 1626 | 100.00% | 66.71% | 18.98% | 7.94% | 3.33% | 0.96% | 0.26% |
| 74 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Anna Kalinskaya | 1430 | 34.63% | 8.48% | 1.06% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 76 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1540 | 65.37% | 24.82% | 5.05% | 1.58% | 0.49% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 77 | Rebecca Peterson | 1561 | 64.41% | 10.83% | 4.99% | 1.68% | 0.56% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 78 | Wang Xinyu | 1458 | 35.59% | 3.58% | 1.16% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 79 | Garbine Muguruza | 1839 | 100.00% | 85.59% | 68.75% | 47.77% | 33.63% | 18.78% | 10.21% |
| 80 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 81 | Jennifer Brady | 1692 | 100.00% | 70.70% | 40.00% | 20.25% | 8.28% | 3.03% | 1.06% |
| 82 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Bernada Pera | 1520 | 45.27% | 12.29% | 4.08% | 1.16% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 84 | Sara Sorribes Tormo | 1553 | 54.73% | 17.00% | 6.37% | 2.06% | 0.51% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 85 | Kaia Kanepi | 1613 | 69.63% | 28.53% | 12.89% | 5.15% | 1.61% | 0.44% | 0.11% |
| 86 | Lauren Davis | 1469 | 30.37% | 7.06% | 1.91% | 0.44% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 87 | Elena Rybakina | 1677 | 100.00% | 64.41% | 34.75% | 16.86% | 6.57% | 2.28% | 0.75% |
| 88 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 89 | Ons Jabeur | 1670 | 100.00% | 64.52% | 29.39% | 15.23% | 5.81% | 1.97% | 0.64% |
| 90 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Jil Teichmann | 1589 | 58.05% | 22.38% | 7.84% | 3.18% | 0.91% | 0.23% | 0.05% |
| 92 | Paula Badosa | 1533 | 41.95% | 13.09% | 3.72% | 1.23% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 93 | Andrea Petkovic | 1538 | 45.19% | 10.35% | 3.80% | 1.29% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 94 | Zhang Shuai | 1571 | 54.81% | 14.52% | 5.98% | 2.28% | 0.61% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 95 | Sofia Kenin | 1749 | 100.00% | 75.13% | 49.28% | 30.86% | 14.93% | 6.56% | 2.77% |
| 96 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 97 | Karolina Pliskova | 1734 | 100.00% | 71.77% | 46.03% | 26.39% | 10.02% | 4.84% | 1.95% |
| 98 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 99 | Zheng Saisai | 1539 | 42.26% | 10.41% | 3.97% | 1.24% | 0.22% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 100 | Fiona Ferro | 1593 | 57.74% | 17.82% | 8.08% | 3.07% | 0.69% | 0.21% | 0.05% |
| 101 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto | 1497 | 54.41% | 14.48% | 3.73% | 0.98% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 102 | Storm Sanders | 1466 | 45.59% | 10.62% | 2.40% | 0.55% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 103 | Jessica Pegula | 1673 | 100.00% | 74.90% | 35.79% | 17.51% | 5.38% | 2.16% | 0.71% |
| 104 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 105 | Maria Sakkari | 1709 | 100.00% | 69.96% | 38.89% | 21.07% | 7.37% | 3.32% | 1.23% |
| 106 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 107 | Marie Bouzkova | 1600 | 67.94% | 23.60% | 9.56% | 3.75% | 0.86% | 0.27% | 0.07% |
| 108 | Arantxa Rus | 1469 | 32.06% | 6.44% | 1.60% | 0.38% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 109 | Camila Giorgi | 1608 | 69.88% | 25.18% | 10.46% | 4.21% | 1.00% | 0.32% | 0.08% |
| 110 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1461 | 30.12% | 5.89% | 1.41% | 0.33% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 111 | Kiki Bertens | 1707 | 100.00% | 68.93% | 38.08% | 20.53% | 7.13% | 3.19% | 1.18% |
| 112 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 113 | Elise Mertens | 1798 | 100.00% | 85.04% | 55.34% | 25.24% | 16.32% | 9.30% | 4.53% |
| 114 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Kristyna Pliskova | 1499 | 50.92% | 7.74% | 2.07% | 0.33% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 116 | Katie Boulter | 1492 | 49.08% | 7.22% | 1.89% | 0.29% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 117 | Sorana Cirstea | 1548 | 56.53% | 14.73% | 3.68% | 0.71% | 0.22% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 118 | Katrina Scott | 1503 | 43.47% | 9.27% | 1.93% | 0.31% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 119 | Anett Kontaveit | 1730 | 100.00% | 76.00% | 35.09% | 13.09% | 7.26% | 3.47% | 1.38% |
| 120 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 121 | Yulia Putintseva | 1651 | 100.00% | 72.18% | 17.61% | 6.48% | 2.87% | 1.07% | 0.32% |
| 122 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Heather Watson | 1501 | 55.18% | 16.37% | 2.13% | 0.44% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 124 | Nina Stojanovic | 1465 | 44.82% | 11.44% | 1.26% | 0.22% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 125 | Anastasia Potapova | 1581 | 60.14% | 8.23% | 3.84% | 1.09% | 0.38% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 126 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1510 | 39.86% | 3.79% | 1.41% | 0.30% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 127 | Naomi Osaka | 1901 | 100.00% | 87.97% | 73.75% | 51.51% | 39.49% | 27.65% | 17.30% |
| 128 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
