The 2nd week of Wimbledon begins tomorrow, so it's time for me to update my predictions for the tournament, after the jump, I summarize what's happened so far, and present what I think is likely to happen for the rest of the event.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 3 of them are still in. Stefanos Tsitsipas lost in round 1 to Frances Tiafoe.
- Alexander Zverev had the easiest overall draw at the start of the tournament, and is still in. Karen Khachanov now has the easiest overall draw relative to his ranking. Daniil Medvedev had the toughest overall draw, and is also still in. Christian Garin now has the toughest draw of the players remaining.
- Marc Polmans had the easiest 1st round draw, and won his round 1 match against Yen-hsun Lu. The player who had the toughest 1st round draw, Jan-Lennard Struff lost his first round match to Medvedev as expected.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Novak Djokovic is the favourite for the title, with a 43.08% chance of winning the whole thing, with Roger Federer 2nd at 15.45%. The 3rd most likely winner is Daniil Medvedev with 10.77%, and 4th is Alexander Zverev with 9.31%.
- As for the next match, it's Karen Khachanov who has the easiest next match, as he's 24.96 percentage points more likely to make it to the quarter finals than a player of his ranking would expect. Christian Garin has the toughest next match, as he's 34.35 percentage points less likely to win than his ranking would expect to do.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak Djokovic | 2026 | 87.69% | 68.70% | 60.22% | 43.08% |
| 2 | Christian Garin | 1685 | 12.31% | 4.39% | 2.20% | 0.60% |
| 3 | Marton Fucsovics | 1646 | 24.69% | 3.53% | 1.57% | 0.36% |
| 4 | Andrey Rublev | 1839 | 75.31% | 23.38% | 16.58% | 7.76% |
| 5 | Karen Khachanov | 1650 | 49.65% | 20.78% | 3.47% | 0.81% |
| 6 | Sebastian Korda | 1652 | 50.35% | 21.25% | 3.59% | 0.85% |
| 7 | Denis Shapovalov | 1694 | 46.66% | 26.23% | 5.31% | 1.50% |
| 8 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1718 | 53.34% | 31.74% | 7.06% | 2.18% |
| 9 | Matteo Berrettini | 1812 | 80.35% | 39.75% | 16.41% | 6.06% |
| 10 | Ilya Ivashka | 1567 | 19.65% | 4.00% | 0.62% | 0.09% |
| 11 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1689 | 27.09% | 10.75% | 2.84% | 0.69% |
| 12 | Alexander Zverev | 1861 | 72.91% | 45.51% | 21.83% | 9.31% |
| 13 | Roger Federer | 1913 | 82.01% | 49.75% | 31.60% | 15.45% |
| 14 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1649 | 17.99% | 4.93% | 1.42% | 0.29% |
| 15 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1625 | 19.03% | 4.09% | 1.07% | 0.20% |
| 16 | Daniil Medvedev | 1876 | 80.97% | 41.23% | 24.21% | 10.77% |
