The 2nd week of Wimbledon begins tomorrow, so it's time for me to update my predictions for the tournament, after the jump, I summarize what's happened so far, and present what I think is likely to happen for the rest of the event.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 2 of them are still in. Serena Williams lost in round 1 to Aliaksandra Sasnovich and Garbine Muguruza lost on round 2 to Ons Jabeur.
- Elise Mertens had the easiest overall draw at the start of the tournament, but she lost in round 3 to Madison Keys. Keys now has the easiest overall draw relative to his ranking. Victoria Azaenka had the toughest overall draw, and she lost her round 2 match to Sorana Cirstea. Elena Rybakina now has the toughest draw of the players remaining.
- Madison Brengle had the easiest 1st round draw, and won her round 1 match against Christina McHale. The player who had the toughest 1st round draw, Carla Suarez Navarro lost her first round match to Ashleigh Barty as expected.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Ashleigh Barty is the favourite for the title, with a 35.7% chance of winning the whole thing, with Aryna Sabalenka 2nd at 15.65%. The 3rd most likely winner is Iga Swiatek with 6.88%, and 4th is Karolina Pliskova with 6.56%.
- As for the next match, it's Ajla Tomljanovic who has the easiest next match, as she's 24.41 percentage points more likely to make it to the quarter finals than a player of her ranking would expect. Barbora Krejcikova has the toughest next match, as she's 30.14 percentage points less likely to win than her ranking would expect to do.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashleigh Barty | 1919 | 73.14% | 65.36% | 50.14% | 35.70% |
| 2 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1745 | 26.86% | 20.29% | 11.13% | 5.39% |
| 3 | Emma Raducanu | 1523 | 43.64% | 5.52% | 1.40% | 0.30% |
| 4 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1568 | 56.36% | 8.82% | 2.69% | 0.70% |
| 5 | Paula Badosa | 1684 | 46.76% | 20.87% | 6.60% | 2.65% |
| 6 | Karolina Muchova | 1707 | 53.24% | 25.47% | 8.69% | 3.75% |
| 7 | Coco Gauff | 1743 | 57.00% | 32.30% | 12.36% | 5.95% |
| 8 | Angelique Kerber | 1694 | 43.00% | 21.36% | 6.98% | 2.89% |
| 9 | Karolina Pliskova | 1726 | 68.06% | 40.91% | 16.97% | 6.56% |
| 10 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1595 | 31.94% | 13.41% | 3.38% | 0.81% |
| 11 | Madison Keys | 1695 | 68.30% | 35.09% | 13.06% | 4.55% |
| 12 | Viktorija Golubic | 1561 | 31.70% | 10.60% | 2.31% | 0.48% |
| 13 | Iga Swiatek | 1772 | 53.29% | 24.69% | 15.45% | 6.88% |
| 14 | Ons Jabeur | 1750 | 46.71% | 20.17% | 12.01% | 4.99% |
| 15 | Elena Rybakina | 1711 | 32.24% | 13.78% | 7.47% | 2.75% |
| 16 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1840 | 67.76% | 41.37% | 29.36% | 15.65% |
