The final Grand Slam of the year, the US Open, is starting shortly, and for the next 2 weeks, I will publish round-by-round updates. After the jump, you will find my pre-tournament predictions for the upcoming tournament.
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But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Rafael Nadal is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 37.08% chance of winning the whole thing, with Daniil Medvedev next at 12.67%. The 3rd most likely is Stefanos Tsitsipas with 7.2% and Carlos Alcaraz 4th with 6.62%
- Jannik Sinner has the easiest overall draw, as he is 0.43 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Nick Kyrgios has a tough draw. He is 0.43 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- Sebastian Baez has the toughest 1st round match, as he's 35.94 percentage points less likely to win than a player of his rank is expected to win. Tomas Martin Etcheverry got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's 31.25 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than his ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1884 |
92.45% |
83.31% |
74.27% |
51.56% |
39.28% |
25.56% |
12.67% |
| 2 |
Stefan Kozlov |
1449 |
7.55% |
3.32% |
1.35% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 3 |
Quentin Halys |
1396 |
31.07% |
2.63% |
0.88% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 4 |
Arthur Rinderknech |
1534 |
68.93% |
10.74% |
5.65% |
1.52% |
0.47% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
| 5 |
Ben Shelton |
1528 |
54.75% |
28.45% |
5.30% |
1.39% |
0.42% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 6 |
Nuno Borges |
1495 |
45.25% |
21.39% |
3.50% |
0.81% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 7 |
Wu Yibing |
1464 |
38.49% |
16.55% |
2.39% |
0.48% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 8 |
Nikoloz Basilashvili |
1545 |
61.51% |
33.60% |
6.68% |
1.87% |
0.61% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
| 9 |
Nick Kyrgios |
1823 |
82.53% |
68.72% |
51.61% |
27.17% |
18.86% |
10.78% |
4.53% |
| 10 |
Thanasi Kokkinakis |
1553 |
17.47% |
8.96% |
3.70% |
0.88% |
0.29% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 11 |
Benjamin Bonzi |
1542 |
49.31% |
10.89% |
4.34% |
1.00% |
0.32% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 12 |
Ugo Humbert |
1547 |
50.69% |
11.42% |
4.62% |
1.08% |
0.35% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 13 |
Alejandro Tabilo |
1528 |
57.66% |
19.11% |
4.87% |
1.06% |
0.32% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 14 |
Kamil Majchrzak |
1475 |
42.34% |
11.42% |
2.35% |
0.42% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 15 |
Jeffrey John Wolf |
1526 |
26.67% |
14.12% |
3.57% |
0.77% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 16 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1702 |
73.33% |
55.34% |
24.94% |
9.59% |
5.13% |
2.09% |
0.59% |
| 17 |
Pablo Carreno Busta |
1715 |
50.54% |
34.73% |
21.13% |
12.04% |
4.50% |
1.92% |
0.57% |
| 18 |
Dominic Thiem |
1712 |
49.46% |
33.76% |
20.38% |
11.50% |
4.25% |
1.79% |
0.53% |
| 19 |
Alexander Bublik |
1605 |
59.53% |
20.73% |
9.44% |
3.94% |
1.00% |
0.29% |
0.06% |
| 20 |
Hugo Gaston |
1538 |
40.47% |
10.78% |
3.93% |
1.30% |
0.25% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 21 |
Christian Garin |
1607 |
65.39% |
27.14% |
11.13% |
4.69% |
1.20% |
0.35% |
0.07% |
| 22 |
Jiri Lehecka |
1497 |
34.61% |
9.48% |
2.59% |
0.73% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 23 |
Filip Krajinovic |
1630 |
40.88% |
23.87% |
10.51% |
4.74% |
1.32% |
0.42% |
0.09% |
| 24 |
Alex De Minaur |
1694 |
59.12% |
39.50% |
20.90% |
11.28% |
3.92% |
1.56% |
0.43% |
| 25 |
Karen Khachanov |
1675 |
79.33% |
49.69% |
25.23% |
12.92% |
4.22% |
1.58% |
0.40% |
| 26 |
Denis Kudla |
1441 |
20.67% |
6.44% |
1.44% |
0.32% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 27 |
Alex Molcan |
1623 |
66.71% |
32.71% |
14.30% |
6.28% |
1.70% |
0.53% |
0.11% |
| 28 |
Thiago Monteiro |
1502 |
33.29% |
11.16% |
3.20% |
0.91% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 29 |
Jack Draper |
1605 |
52.34% |
20.05% |
9.46% |
3.92% |
0.99% |
0.29% |
0.06% |
| 30 |
Emil Ruusuvuori |
1588 |
47.66% |
17.29% |
7.78% |
3.05% |
0.72% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
| 31 |
Alexander Ritschard |
1496 |
19.87% |
7.13% |
2.35% |
0.65% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 32 |
Felix Auger-Aliassime |
1738 |
80.13% |
55.53% |
36.25% |
21.73% |
8.74% |
4.00% |
1.29% |
| 33 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1847 |
87.22% |
75.42% |
61.66% |
40.95% |
27.59% |
15.98% |
7.20% |
| 34 |
Daniel Elahi Galan |
1514 |
12.78% |
6.19% |
2.46% |
0.63% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 35 |
Lorenzo Sonego |
1540 |
54.99% |
10.78% |
4.68% |
1.33% |
0.37% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 36 |
Jordan Thompson |
1506 |
45.01% |
7.62% |
2.94% |
0.73% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 37 |
Yoshihito Nishioka |
1558 |
44.50% |
20.15% |
5.15% |
1.56% |
0.47% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 38 |
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina |
1597 |
55.50% |
28.19% |
8.25% |
2.87% |
0.99% |
0.26% |
0.05% |
| 39 |
Marton Fucsovics |
1580 |
47.07% |
23.59% |
6.52% |
2.14% |
0.70% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
| 40 |
Maxime Cressy |
1601 |
52.93% |
28.07% |
8.33% |
2.94% |
1.03% |
0.28% |
0.05% |
| 41 |
Francisco Cerundolo |
1598 |
37.25% |
23.48% |
8.07% |
2.62% |
0.91% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
| 42 |
Andy Murray |
1688 |
62.75% |
46.50% |
20.86% |
8.97% |
4.16% |
1.54% |
0.42% |
| 43 |
John Millman |
1532 |
60.21% |
20.08% |
5.55% |
1.43% |
0.39% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 44 |
Emilio Nava |
1460 |
39.79% |
9.94% |
2.11% |
0.41% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 45 |
Tomas Martin Etcheverry |
1412 |
40.44% |
5.51% |
1.37% |
0.22% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 46 |
Pablo Andujar |
1480 |
59.56% |
10.93% |
3.55% |
0.74% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 47 |
Nicolas Jarry |
1513 |
15.75% |
9.23% |
3.38% |
0.81% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 48 |
Matteo Berrettini |
1805 |
84.25% |
74.33% |
55.11% |
31.65% |
19.63% |
10.26% |
4.09% |
| 49 |
Taylor Fritz |
1754 |
81.15% |
66.01% |
44.64% |
24.98% |
11.91% |
5.42% |
1.84% |
| 50 |
Brandon Holt |
1500 |
18.85% |
9.49% |
3.18% |
0.78% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 51 |
Aljaz Bedene |
1508 |
53.21% |
13.58% |
4.69% |
1.19% |
0.24% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 52 |
Pedro Cachin |
1486 |
46.79% |
10.92% |
3.47% |
0.80% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 53 |
Stan Wawrinka |
1641 |
65.54% |
34.79% |
16.10% |
6.61% |
2.22% |
0.70% |
0.16% |
| 54 |
Corentin Moutet |
1530 |
34.46% |
13.07% |
4.28% |
1.18% |
0.26% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 55 |
Tomas Machac |
1501 |
28.21% |
10.18% |
3.02% |
0.75% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 56 |
Botic van de Zandschulp |
1664 |
71.79% |
41.96% |
20.62% |
9.07% |
3.28% |
1.12% |
0.28% |
| 57 |
Tommy Paul |
1671 |
74.72% |
42.81% |
18.83% |
9.37% |
3.47% |
1.22% |
0.31% |
| 58 |
Bernabe Zapata Miralles |
1482 |
25.28% |
8.29% |
1.90% |
0.50% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 59 |
Sebastian Korda |
1662 |
78.93% |
43.43% |
18.61% |
9.03% |
3.25% |
1.10% |
0.27% |
| 60 |
Facundo Bagnis |
1432 |
21.07% |
5.47% |
1.01% |
0.22% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 61 |
Zhang Zhizhen |
1488 |
37.49% |
7.14% |
2.15% |
0.58% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 62 |
Tim van Rijthoven |
1577 |
62.51% |
17.21% |
7.12% |
2.66% |
0.71% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
| 63 |
Kyle Edmund |
1583 |
22.03% |
12.24% |
5.17% |
1.97% |
0.54% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
| 64 |
Casper Ruud |
1803 |
77.97% |
63.41% |
45.22% |
30.30% |
16.42% |
8.54% |
3.38% |
| 65 |
Hubert Hurkacz |
1752 |
69.87% |
50.10% |
35.86% |
19.20% |
10.03% |
3.29% |
1.42% |
| 66 |
Oscar Otte |
1606 |
30.13% |
15.88% |
8.29% |
2.90% |
0.98% |
0.19% |
0.05% |
| 67 |
Sam Querrey |
1507 |
33.51% |
8.25% |
3.17% |
0.77% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 68 |
Ilya Ivashka |
1627 |
66.49% |
25.77% |
14.21% |
5.32% |
1.92% |
0.40% |
0.11% |
| 69 |
Adrian Mannarino |
1624 |
65.44% |
36.26% |
15.54% |
5.78% |
2.08% |
0.43% |
0.12% |
| 70 |
Gijs Brouwer |
1513 |
34.56% |
13.69% |
3.97% |
0.99% |
0.24% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 71 |
David Goffin |
1588 |
50.43% |
25.35% |
9.65% |
3.18% |
1.01% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
| 72 |
Lorenzo Musetti |
1585 |
49.57% |
24.70% |
9.31% |
3.03% |
0.95% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
| 73 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1663 |
61.99% |
39.71% |
15.66% |
8.04% |
3.27% |
0.79% |
0.25% |
| 74 |
Steve Johnson |
1578 |
38.01% |
19.97% |
5.98% |
2.38% |
0.73% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| 75 |
Brandon Nakashima |
1601 |
67.63% |
30.95% |
10.01% |
4.29% |
1.42% |
0.27% |
0.07% |
| 76 |
Pavel Kotov |
1473 |
32.37% |
9.38% |
1.90% |
0.51% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 77 |
Pedro Martinez |
1544 |
64.46% |
14.41% |
5.90% |
2.09% |
0.56% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 78 |
Christopher Eubanks |
1441 |
35.54% |
5.19% |
1.45% |
0.34% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 79 |
Daniel Altmaier |
1419 |
9.43% |
3.55% |
0.90% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 80 |
Jannik Sinner |
1812 |
90.57% |
76.84% |
58.20% |
40.98% |
24.55% |
9.66% |
4.96% |
| 81 |
Marin Cilic |
1724 |
85.10% |
63.33% |
46.43% |
21.67% |
10.95% |
3.28% |
1.29% |
| 82 |
Maximilian Marterer |
1421 |
14.90% |
5.17% |
1.74% |
0.27% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 83 |
Norbert Gombos |
1452 |
33.14% |
7.57% |
2.84% |
0.50% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 84 |
Albert Ramos Vinolas |
1574 |
66.86% |
23.93% |
12.99% |
3.74% |
1.18% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
| 85 |
James Duckworth |
1501 |
57.14% |
22.75% |
6.98% |
1.51% |
0.36% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 86 |
Christopher O'Connell |
1451 |
42.86% |
14.26% |
3.62% |
0.63% |
0.12% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 87 |
Jiri Vesely |
1507 |
35.45% |
19.11% |
5.99% |
1.33% |
0.32% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 88 |
Daniel Evans |
1611 |
64.55% |
43.88% |
19.40% |
6.37% |
2.28% |
0.45% |
0.12% |
| 89 |
Borna Coric |
1699 |
77.24% |
50.89% |
21.26% |
12.50% |
5.90% |
1.62% |
0.59% |
| 90 |
Enzo Couacuad |
1486 |
22.76% |
8.45% |
1.70% |
0.53% |
0.12% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 91 |
Jenson Brooksby |
1623 |
68.21% |
31.33% |
10.36% |
5.05% |
1.88% |
0.39% |
0.11% |
| 92 |
Dusan Lajovic |
1490 |
31.79% |
9.33% |
1.90% |
0.61% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 93 |
Tallon Griekspoor |
1531 |
53.06% |
10.22% |
3.64% |
1.34% |
0.36% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 94 |
Federico Coria |
1510 |
46.94% |
8.25% |
2.72% |
0.93% |
0.23% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 95 |
Sebastian Baez |
1571 |
17.11% |
9.78% |
3.99% |
1.67% |
0.52% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 96 |
Carlos Alcaraz |
1845 |
82.89% |
71.76% |
54.43% |
41.35% |
27.39% |
11.85% |
6.62% |
| 97 |
Cameron Norrie |
1793 |
90.81% |
74.68% |
52.76% |
36.06% |
12.95% |
7.13% |
3.48% |
| 98 |
Benoit Paire |
1396 |
9.19% |
3.05% |
0.68% |
0.14% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 99 |
Joao Sousa |
1431 |
32.00% |
4.84% |
1.25% |
0.30% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 100 |
Mackenzie McDonald |
1562 |
68.00% |
17.43% |
7.17% |
2.79% |
0.46% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 101 |
John Isner |
1708 |
80.28% |
60.14% |
28.38% |
16.42% |
4.55% |
1.99% |
0.75% |
| 102 |
Federico Delbonis |
1464 |
19.72% |
8.37% |
1.72% |
0.47% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 103 |
Peter Gojowczyk |
1492 |
43.51% |
12.43% |
2.85% |
0.87% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 104 |
Holger Rune |
1537 |
56.49% |
19.05% |
5.19% |
1.86% |
0.28% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 105 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1626 |
66.21% |
44.87% |
19.90% |
7.47% |
1.57% |
0.52% |
0.14% |
| 106 |
Marc-Andrea Husler |
1509 |
33.79% |
17.51% |
5.28% |
1.29% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 107 |
Jaume Munar |
1514 |
55.65% |
22.21% |
6.82% |
1.70% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 108 |
Roberto Carballes Baena |
1474 |
44.35% |
15.40% |
4.07% |
0.87% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 109 |
Fernando Verdasco |
1490 |
45.00% |
10.28% |
4.19% |
0.95% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 110 |
Kwon Soon-Woo |
1525 |
55.00% |
14.52% |
6.62% |
1.73% |
0.25% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 111 |
Laslo Djere |
1587 |
27.39% |
16.72% |
9.07% |
2.99% |
0.54% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
| 112 |
Andrey Rublev |
1757 |
72.61% |
58.48% |
44.05% |
24.09% |
7.76% |
3.89% |
1.71% |
| 113 |
Diego Schwartzman |
1675 |
68.63% |
52.50% |
32.48% |
7.14% |
3.15% |
1.24% |
0.41% |
| 114 |
Jack Sock |
1539 |
31.37% |
18.77% |
8.05% |
1.06% |
0.29% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 115 |
Alexei Popyrin |
1473 |
50.87% |
14.79% |
5.04% |
0.50% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 116 |
Tseng Chun-hsin |
1467 |
49.13% |
13.94% |
4.64% |
0.45% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 117 |
Jason Kubler |
1531 |
43.49% |
17.05% |
7.15% |
0.91% |
0.24% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 118 |
Mikael Ymer |
1576 |
56.51% |
25.69% |
12.32% |
1.87% |
0.60% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
| 119 |
Marcos Giron |
1547 |
36.45% |
17.73% |
7.81% |
1.06% |
0.30% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 120 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1643 |
63.55% |
39.53% |
22.51% |
4.41% |
1.77% |
0.62% |
0.18% |
| 121 |
Miomir Kecmanovic |
1653 |
70.76% |
44.46% |
7.77% |
4.41% |
1.82% |
0.67% |
0.21% |
| 122 |
Learner Tien |
1500 |
29.24% |
12.25% |
1.16% |
0.41% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 123 |
Taro Daniel |
1456 |
30.04% |
8.99% |
0.70% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 124 |
Richard Gasquet |
1603 |
69.96% |
34.31% |
4.93% |
2.45% |
0.85% |
0.26% |
0.07% |
| 125 |
Fabio Fognini |
1556 |
50.47% |
4.73% |
2.08% |
0.90% |
0.27% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 126 |
Aslan Karatsev |
1553 |
49.53% |
4.58% |
1.99% |
0.85% |
0.25% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 127 |
Rinky Hijikata |
1499 |
5.00% |
2.10% |
0.76% |
0.27% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 128 |
Rafael Nadal |
2011 |
95.00% |
88.59% |
80.61% |
73.10% |
60.88% |
48.78% |
37.08% |
