The 1st round of the US Open has almost finished, so let's take a look at how that affected my rankings of the players still in (The numbers assume that the higher ranked player will win for the remaining matches) and also how well I expect them to do for the rest of the tournament.
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View my pre-tournament predictions for the Men and the Women here, but before the latest rankings, some stats I calculated for the top 150 players (completed matches only):
| Rank | ± Men | ± Wmn |
|---|---|---|
| 1-10 | 0 | -20 |
| 11-20 | 7 | 10 |
| 21-50 | 46 | 107 |
| 51-100 | -54 | -95 |
| 101-150 | -45 | 5 |
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Now, my latest Men's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniil Medvedev | 1885 | 87.93% | 79.62% | 53.60% | 40.02% | 27.72% | 13.67% |
| 2 | Arthur Rinderknech | 1540 | 12.07% | 6.86% | 1.81% | 0.53% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| 3 | Nuno Borges | 1506 | 54.25% | 7.77% | 1.79% | 0.46% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 4 | Wu Yibing | 1476 | 45.75% | 5.74% | 1.18% | 0.27% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 5 | Nick Kyrgios | 1826 | 82.93% | 69.62% | 35.28% | 23.94% | 14.84% | 6.23% |
| 6 | Benjamin Bonzi | 1552 | 17.07% | 8.85% | 1.91% | 0.59% | 0.16% | 0.02% |
| 7 | Alejandro Tabilo | 1537 | 49.41% | 10.54% | 2.16% | 0.63% | 0.16% | 0.02% |
| 8 | Jeffrey John Wolf | 1541 | 50.59% | 10.98% | 2.28% | 0.68% | 0.18% | 0.02% |
| 9 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1725 | 65.65% | 38.03% | 21.11% | 7.66% | 3.72% | 1.12% |
| 10 | Alexander Bublik | 1613 | 34.35% | 14.46% | 5.78% | 1.39% | 0.47% | 0.09% |
| 11 | Christian Garin | 1614 | 37.67% | 15.04% | 6.05% | 1.47% | 0.50% | 0.10% |
| 12 | Alex De Minaur | 1702 | 62.33% | 32.47% | 16.96% | 5.68% | 2.58% | 0.71% |
| 13 | Karen Khachanov | 1679 | 71.96% | 33.74% | 16.59% | 5.13% | 2.18% | 0.55% |
| 14 | Thiago Monteiro | 1515 | 28.04% | 7.32% | 2.03% | 0.33% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 15 | Jack Draper | 1614 | 32.35% | 15.28% | 6.13% | 1.49% | 0.51% | 0.10% |
| 16 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1742 | 67.65% | 43.66% | 25.34% | 9.73% | 4.95% | 1.59% |
| 17 | Daniel Elahi Galan | 1531 | 52.11% | 21.06% | 4.97% | 1.40% | 0.26% | 0.04% |
| 18 | Jordan Thompson | 1517 | 47.89% | 18.39% | 4.09% | 1.09% | 0.19% | 0.02% |
| 19 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1606 | 52.10% | 32.05% | 10.11% | 3.73% | 0.96% | 0.18% |
| 20 | Marton Fucsovics | 1591 | 47.90% | 28.50% | 8.52% | 2.99% | 0.73% | 0.13% |
| 21 | Andy Murray | 1696 | 78.31% | 31.56% | 21.21% | 10.30% | 3.72% | 1.01% |
| 22 | Emilio Nava | 1473 | 21.69% | 3.80% | 1.39% | 0.31% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 23 | Hugo Grenier | 1496 | 14.27% | 4.35% | 1.73% | 0.42% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 24 | Matteo Berrettini | 1808 | 85.73% | 60.30% | 47.97% | 30.37% | 15.42% | 6.12% |
| 25 | Brandon Holt | 1516 | 52.87% | 18.40% | 4.21% | 1.11% | 0.20% | 0.02% |
| 26 | Pedro Cachin | 1496 | 47.13% | 15.23% | 3.19% | 0.78% | 0.13% | 0.01% |
| 27 | Corentin Moutet | 1543 | 32.54% | 17.94% | 4.58% | 1.34% | 0.27% | 0.04% |
| 28 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1669 | 67.46% | 48.43% | 19.73% | 8.78% | 2.89% | 0.71% |
| 29 | Tommy Paul | 1676 | 51.42% | 19.87% | 12.18% | 5.52% | 1.86% | 0.47% |
| 30 | Sebastian Korda | 1666 | 48.58% | 18.17% | 10.90% | 4.80% | 1.56% | 0.38% |
| 31 | Tim van Rijthoven | 1585 | 21.73% | 8.22% | 4.02% | 1.37% | 0.32% | 0.06% |
| 32 | Casper Ruud | 1807 | 78.27% | 53.74% | 41.18% | 25.71% | 13.03% | 5.16% |
| 33 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1758 | 67.26% | 50.32% | 25.63% | 12.85% | 4.19% | 1.88% |
| 34 | Ilya Ivashka | 1633 | 32.74% | 19.40% | 6.72% | 2.29% | 0.47% | 0.14% |
| 35 | Gijs Brouwer | 1527 | 40.24% | 10.27% | 2.36% | 0.53% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 36 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1595 | 59.76% | 20.02% | 6.04% | 1.79% | 0.32% | 0.08% |
| 37 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1671 | 59.01% | 21.14% | 10.36% | 4.01% | 0.96% | 0.32% |
| 38 | Brandon Nakashima | 1607 | 40.99% | 11.77% | 4.77% | 1.48% | 0.28% | 0.07% |
| 39 | Christopher Eubanks | 1454 | 11.20% | 2.82% | 0.64% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 40 | Jannik Sinner | 1813 | 88.80% | 64.27% | 43.47% | 24.97% | 9.69% | 5.08% |
| 41 | Marin Cilic | 1727 | 69.88% | 48.62% | 20.71% | 9.93% | 2.91% | 1.19% |
| 42 | Albert Ramos Vinolas | 1581 | 30.12% | 15.07% | 3.82% | 1.12% | 0.19% | 0.04% |
| 43 | James Duckworth | 1509 | 34.88% | 9.61% | 1.81% | 0.40% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 44 | Daniel Evans | 1618 | 65.12% | 26.70% | 7.83% | 2.64% | 0.51% | 0.14% |
| 45 | Borna Coric | 1703 | 60.52% | 21.78% | 12.32% | 5.52% | 1.49% | 0.56% |
| 46 | Jenson Brooksby | 1629 | 39.48% | 10.94% | 5.07% | 1.78% | 0.36% | 0.10% |
| 47 | Federico Coria | 1521 | 13.14% | 3.87% | 1.25% | 0.29% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 48 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1849 | 86.86% | 63.41% | 47.20% | 30.29% | 13.01% | 7.43% |
| 49 | Cameron Norrie | 1795 | 88.25% | 59.14% | 37.86% | 13.15% | 7.00% | 3.49% |
| 50 | Joao Sousa | 1445 | 11.75% | 2.67% | 0.56% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 51 | John Isner | 1712 | 72.26% | 31.40% | 16.69% | 4.44% | 1.86% | 0.72% |
| 52 | Holger Rune | 1546 | 27.74% | 6.80% | 2.15% | 0.30% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 53 | Denis Shapovalov | 1632 | 65.32% | 25.38% | 8.89% | 1.78% | 0.57% | 0.16% |
| 54 | Jaume Munar | 1522 | 34.68% | 9.05% | 2.07% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 55 | Kwon Soon-Woo | 1534 | 21.19% | 8.81% | 2.11% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 56 | Andrey Rublev | 1762 | 78.81% | 56.77% | 29.67% | 9.30% | 4.53% | 2.05% |
| 57 | Diego Schwartzman | 1681 | 75.82% | 44.08% | 9.05% | 3.79% | 1.44% | 0.50% |
| 58 | Alexei Popyrin | 1483 | 24.18% | 7.47% | 0.67% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Mikael Ymer | 1585 | 40.65% | 17.55% | 2.45% | 0.73% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 60 | Frances Tiafoe | 1651 | 59.35% | 30.90% | 5.63% | 2.13% | 0.73% | 0.23% |
| 61 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1659 | 57.26% | 8.77% | 4.61% | 1.80% | 0.63% | 0.20% |
| 62 | Richard Gasquet | 1609 | 42.74% | 5.26% | 2.39% | 0.78% | 0.23% | 0.06% |
| 63 | Fabio Fognini | 1566 | 7.15% | 2.85% | 1.13% | 0.31% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 64 | Rafael Nadal | 2012 | 92.85% | 83.12% | 74.07% | 60.74% | 47.99% | 36.77% |
And my latest Women's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iga Swiatek | 1905 | 85.74% | 68.14% | 57.24% | 43.36% | 32.29% | 22.99% |
| 2 | Sloane Stephens | 1593 | 14.26% | 5.85% | 2.75% | 0.97% | 0.33% | 0.10% |
| 3 | Lauren Davis | 1511 | 24.52% | 3.31% | 1.18% | 0.30% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 4 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1706 | 75.48% | 22.70% | 14.26% | 7.22% | 3.52% | 1.58% |
| 5 | Yulia Putintseva | 1649 | 65.59% | 36.68% | 10.23% | 4.37% | 1.78% | 0.67% |
| 6 | Jule Niemeier | 1537 | 34.41% | 13.77% | 2.45% | 0.70% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 7 | Anastasia Potapova | 1627 | 56.16% | 29.32% | 7.51% | 2.98% | 1.13% | 0.39% |
| 8 | Zheng Qinwen | 1584 | 43.84% | 20.24% | 4.37% | 1.49% | 0.48% | 0.14% |
| 9 | Garbine Muguruza | 1686 | 69.11% | 34.68% | 16.64% | 6.08% | 2.79% | 1.17% |
| 10 | Linda Fruhvirtova | 1546 | 30.89% | 9.75% | 2.92% | 0.64% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 11 | Anhelina Kalinina | 1592 | 31.53% | 13.52% | 4.80% | 1.27% | 0.42% | 0.13% |
| 12 | Petra Kvitova | 1726 | 68.47% | 42.05% | 22.54% | 9.32% | 4.80% | 2.29% |
| 13 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1656 | 75.01% | 29.96% | 14.11% | 4.68% | 1.96% | 0.75% |
| 14 | Yuan Yue | 1465 | 24.99% | 4.63% | 1.08% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 15 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1647 | 33.12% | 18.22% | 8.35% | 2.68% | 1.09% | 0.40% |
| 16 | Jessica Pegula | 1769 | 66.88% | 47.20% | 29.56% | 13.77% | 7.92% | 4.25% |
| 17 | Paula Badosa | 1746 | 65.59% | 37.46% | 20.81% | 12.06% | 5.40% | 2.73% |
| 18 | Petra Martic | 1634 | 34.41% | 14.38% | 5.75% | 2.45% | 0.76% | 0.27% |
| 19 | Marta Kostyuk | 1575 | 27.99% | 9.00% | 2.91% | 1.02% | 0.25% | 0.07% |
| 20 | Victoria Azarenka | 1739 | 72.01% | 39.16% | 21.38% | 12.18% | 5.35% | 2.65% |
| 21 | Karolina Pliskova | 1710 | 58.34% | 29.22% | 14.51% | 7.69% | 3.10% | 1.41% |
| 22 | Marie Bouzkova | 1652 | 41.66% | 17.52% | 7.28% | 3.28% | 1.09% | 0.41% |
| 23 | Sorana Cirstea | 1598 | 28.99% | 10.93% | 3.77% | 1.43% | 0.39% | 0.12% |
| 24 | Belinda Bencic | 1754 | 71.01% | 42.32% | 23.59% | 13.91% | 6.37% | 3.28% |
| 25 | Alize Cornet | 1629 | 57.88% | 24.97% | 11.02% | 4.15% | 1.27% | 0.44% |
| 26 | Katerina Siniakova | 1574 | 42.12% | 15.24% | 5.64% | 1.73% | 0.43% | 0.12% |
| 27 | Cristina Bucsa | 1451 | 17.27% | 5.04% | 1.17% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 28 | Danielle Collins | 1723 | 82.73% | 54.74% | 31.01% | 15.72% | 6.57% | 3.10% |
| 29 | Clara Burel | 1490 | 40.71% | 8.95% | 2.49% | 0.54% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 30 | Alison Van Uytvanck | 1555 | 59.29% | 17.15% | 6.09% | 1.74% | 0.40% | 0.10% |
| 31 | Kaia Kanepi | 1635 | 33.27% | 21.51% | 9.89% | 3.80% | 1.19% | 0.42% |
| 32 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1756 | 66.73% | 52.39% | 32.69% | 18.08% | 8.32% | 4.31% |
| 33 | Daria Snigur | 1500 | 46.64% | 18.75% | 4.30% | 1.07% | 0.21% | 0.04% |
| 34 | Rebecca Marino | 1523 | 53.36% | 23.12% | 5.85% | 1.60% | 0.36% | 0.07% |
| 35 | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | 1457 | 28.62% | 12.07% | 2.30% | 0.47% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 36 | Zhang Shuai | 1616 | 71.38% | 46.05% | 16.66% | 6.47% | 2.09% | 0.62% |
| 37 | Madison Keys | 1702 | 60.44% | 28.17% | 19.63% | 9.96% | 4.34% | 1.74% |
| 38 | Camila Giorgi | 1629 | 39.56% | 14.68% | 8.86% | 3.59% | 1.22% | 0.38% |
| 39 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse | 1510 | 18.23% | 5.17% | 2.27% | 0.59% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 40 | Coco Gauff | 1771 | 81.77% | 51.98% | 40.13% | 24.19% | 12.81% | 6.31% |
| 41 | Beatriz Haddad Maia | 1688 | 46.11% | 23.09% | 12.31% | 6.27% | 2.61% | 1.00% |
| 42 | Bianca Andreescu | 1716 | 53.89% | 28.97% | 16.52% | 9.02% | 4.09% | 1.71% |
| 43 | Anna Kalinskaya | 1546 | 25.31% | 7.30% | 2.49% | 0.81% | 0.20% | 0.04% |
| 44 | Caroline Garcia | 1734 | 74.69% | 40.64% | 24.17% | 13.78% | 6.59% | 2.92% |
| 45 | Alison Riske-Amritraj | 1648 | 63.15% | 28.86% | 12.12% | 5.52% | 2.01% | 0.67% |
| 46 | Camila Osorio | 1554 | 36.85% | 12.39% | 3.71% | 1.25% | 0.32% | 0.07% |
| 47 | Wang Xiyu | 1528 | 24.24% | 9.23% | 2.48% | 0.76% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 48 | Maria Sakkari | 1726 | 75.76% | 49.52% | 26.20% | 14.66% | 6.85% | 2.96% |
| 49 | Ons Jabeur | 1832 | 85.81% | 64.65% | 45.97% | 30.86% | 20.70% | 11.87% |
| 50 | Elizabeth Mandlik | 1520 | 14.19% | 5.06% | 1.64% | 0.43% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 51 | Viktoria Kuzmova | 1464 | 22.90% | 3.48% | 0.92% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 52 | Shelby Rogers | 1675 | 77.10% | 26.82% | 13.89% | 6.36% | 2.92% | 1.07% |
| 53 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1743 | 81.68% | 65.13% | 30.63% | 16.93% | 9.36% | 4.26% |
| 54 | Maryna Zanevska | 1483 | 18.32% | 8.61% | 1.59% | 0.36% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 55 | Dalma Galfi | 1477 | 43.13% | 10.13% | 1.81% | 0.39% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 56 | Harriet Dart | 1525 | 56.87% | 16.12% | 3.54% | 0.94% | 0.25% | 0.05% |
| 57 | Leylah Fernandez | 1663 | 50.73% | 27.89% | 11.45% | 4.35% | 1.92% | 0.68% |
| 58 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1658 | 49.27% | 26.75% | 10.80% | 4.03% | 1.75% | 0.61% |
| 59 | Aleksandra Krunic | 1524 | 30.04% | 9.38% | 2.28% | 0.51% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 60 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1671 | 69.96% | 35.98% | 15.13% | 5.89% | 2.66% | 0.96% |
| 61 | Evgeniya Rodina | 1426 | 20.46% | 2.56% | 0.56% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1662 | 79.54% | 28.39% | 14.60% | 5.52% | 2.43% | 0.85% |
| 63 | Serena Williams | 1766 | 50.62% | 35.08% | 23.06% | 11.88% | 6.94% | 3.38% |
| 64 | Anett Kontaveit | 1762 | 49.38% | 33.97% | 22.14% | 11.28% | 6.53% | 3.13% |
