The final Grand Slam of the year, the US Open, is starting shortly, and for the next 2 weeks, I will publish round-by-round updates. After the jump, you will find my pre-tournament predictions for the upcoming tournament.
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- Iga Swiatek is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 19.64% chance of winning the whole thing, with Simona Halep next at 10.4%. The 3rd most likely is Ons Jabeur with 9.37% and Daria Kasatkina 4th with 4.63%
- Halep has the easiest overall draw, as she is 1.03 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. This comes at the expense of Jabeur, as she is 1.03 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- Jasmine Paolini has the toughest 1st round match, as she's 37.61 percentage points less likely to win than a player of her rank is expected to win. Yuan Yue got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's 32.77 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than her ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iga Swiatek | 1902 | 87.73% | 77.40% | 63.56% | 49.36% | 38.23% | 28.39% | 19.64% |
| 2 | Jasmine Paolini | 1561 | 12.27% | 6.42% | 2.67% | 0.91% | 0.31% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 3 | Greet Minnen | 1445 | 30.55% | 3.06% | 0.84% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Sloane Stephens | 1587 | 69.45% | 13.12% | 5.92% | 2.22% | 0.83% | 0.27% | 0.08% |
| 5 | Lauren Davis | 1499 | 42.18% | 12.68% | 2.06% | 0.56% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 6 | Lucia Bronzetti | 1554 | 57.82% | 21.17% | 4.29% | 1.43% | 0.48% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 7 | Peyton Stearns | 1494 | 23.26% | 10.41% | 1.66% | 0.44% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1701 | 76.74% | 55.74% | 19.00% | 10.09% | 5.34% | 2.58% | 1.09% |
| 9 | Amanda Anisimova | 1749 | 65.65% | 46.63% | 29.49% | 12.54% | 7.44% | 4.08% | 1.99% |
| 10 | Yulia Putintseva | 1636 | 34.35% | 19.40% | 9.32% | 2.78% | 1.22% | 0.48% | 0.16% |
| 11 | Sofia Kenin | 1626 | 64.26% | 24.68% | 11.52% | 3.32% | 1.42% | 0.54% | 0.18% |
| 12 | Jule Niemeier | 1524 | 35.74% | 9.29% | 3.09% | 0.61% | 0.18% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 13 | Claire Liu | 1505 | 34.05% | 9.51% | 2.66% | 0.48% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 14 | Anastasia Potapova | 1620 | 65.95% | 27.89% | 11.80% | 3.33% | 1.39% | 0.52% | 0.16% |
| 15 | Zheng Qinwen | 1570 | 29.65% | 14.35% | 5.13% | 1.20% | 0.42% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 16 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1720 | 70.35% | 48.24% | 26.99% | 10.55% | 5.85% | 2.97% | 1.33% |
| 17 | Garbine Muguruza | 1678 | 63.80% | 46.45% | 24.71% | 12.45% | 4.46% | 2.01% | 0.79% |
| 18 | Clara Tauson | 1580 | 36.20% | 21.89% | 8.72% | 3.25% | 0.82% | 0.26% | 0.07% |
| 19 | Linda Fruhvirtova | 1538 | 62.54% | 22.28% | 7.68% | 2.47% | 0.53% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 20 | Wang Xinyu | 1449 | 37.46% | 9.38% | 2.28% | 0.52% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 21 | Bernada Pera | 1607 | 53.69% | 21.86% | 10.98% | 4.47% | 1.25% | 0.44% | 0.13% |
| 22 | Anhelina Kalinina | 1581 | 46.31% | 17.33% | 8.10% | 3.03% | 0.77% | 0.25% | 0.07% |
| 23 | Erika Andreeva | 1501 | 21.85% | 8.04% | 2.90% | 0.81% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 24 | Petra Kvitova | 1722 | 78.15% | 52.77% | 34.62% | 19.48% | 8.02% | 4.10% | 1.85% |
| 25 | Elise Mertens | 1646 | 49.88% | 37.71% | 16.48% | 8.16% | 2.62% | 1.06% | 0.37% |
| 26 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1646 | 50.12% | 37.93% | 16.61% | 8.25% | 2.65% | 1.08% | 0.38% |
| 27 | Yuan Yue | 1456 | 52.02% | 13.04% | 2.84% | 0.73% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 28 | Jaimee Fourlis | 1442 | 47.98% | 11.31% | 2.32% | 0.56% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 29 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto | 1478 | 28.02% | 5.99% | 2.04% | 0.57% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 30 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1642 | 71.98% | 28.59% | 15.91% | 7.80% | 2.47% | 0.99% | 0.34% |
| 31 | Viktorija Golubic | 1554 | 22.93% | 10.12% | 4.43% | 1.65% | 0.37% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 32 | Jessica Pegula | 1765 | 77.07% | 55.30% | 39.38% | 25.79% | 12.00% | 6.84% | 3.50% |
| 33 | Paula Badosa | 1741 | 73.44% | 51.77% | 31.30% | 18.51% | 10.22% | 4.66% | 2.23% |
| 34 | Lesia Tsurenko | 1564 | 26.56% | 12.53% | 4.71% | 1.66% | 0.53% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 35 | Varvara Gracheva | 1478 | 29.68% | 6.93% | 1.92% | 0.49% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 36 | Petra Martic | 1628 | 70.32% | 28.77% | 13.15% | 5.75% | 2.29% | 0.73% | 0.24% |
| 37 | Mayar Sherif | 1421 | 29.95% | 5.76% | 1.18% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 38 | Marta Kostyuk | 1569 | 70.05% | 23.90% | 8.77% | 3.15% | 1.02% | 0.26% | 0.07% |
| 39 | Ashlyn Krueger | 1467 | 17.55% | 7.36% | 1.84% | 0.44% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 40 | Victoria Azarenka | 1736 | 82.45% | 62.97% | 37.13% | 21.70% | 11.82% | 5.31% | 2.50% |
| 41 | Karolina Pliskova | 1703 | 63.21% | 40.14% | 21.95% | 11.40% | 5.70% | 2.32% | 0.99% |
| 42 | Magda Linette | 1609 | 36.79% | 18.64% | 7.84% | 3.08% | 1.15% | 0.34% | 0.10% |
| 43 | Marie Bouzkova | 1645 | 67.94% | 31.75% | 14.89% | 6.57% | 2.77% | 0.93% | 0.33% |
| 44 | Linda Noskova | 1515 | 32.06% | 9.47% | 2.87% | 0.80% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 45 | Laura Siegemund | 1557 | 45.40% | 14.08% | 5.25% | 1.72% | 0.53% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 46 | Sorana Cirstea | 1589 | 54.60% | 19.05% | 7.92% | 2.91% | 1.01% | 0.28% | 0.08% |
| 47 | Andrea Petkovic | 1574 | 26.76% | 13.35% | 5.27% | 1.83% | 0.60% | 0.16% | 0.04% |
| 48 | Belinda Bencic | 1748 | 73.24% | 53.53% | 34.01% | 19.77% | 11.11% | 5.18% | 2.53% |
| 49 | Emma Raducanu | 1579 | 44.14% | 24.66% | 8.43% | 2.98% | 1.02% | 0.27% | 0.07% |
| 50 | Alize Cornet | 1620 | 55.86% | 34.36% | 13.47% | 5.47% | 2.16% | 0.66% | 0.21% |
| 51 | Taylor Townsend | 1496 | 40.11% | 14.14% | 3.54% | 0.92% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 52 | Katerina Siniakova | 1565 | 59.89% | 26.83% | 8.74% | 2.95% | 0.96% | 0.24% | 0.06% |
| 53 | Kaja Juvan | 1539 | 64.12% | 15.05% | 6.69% | 2.04% | 0.60% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 54 | Cristina Bucsa | 1438 | 35.88% | 5.27% | 1.64% | 0.33% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 55 | Naomi Osaka | 1770 | 58.35% | 47.82% | 35.81% | 21.75% | 13.04% | 6.43% | 3.33% |
| 56 | Danielle Collins | 1711 | 41.65% | 31.86% | 21.69% | 11.47% | 5.96% | 2.49% | 1.09% |
| 57 | Elena Rybakina | 1723 | 80.75% | 60.19% | 33.30% | 18.86% | 10.11% | 4.38% | 1.98% |
| 58 | Clara Burel | 1474 | 19.25% | 7.92% | 1.93% | 0.49% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Alison Van Uytvanck | 1546 | 53.01% | 17.50% | 5.65% | 1.90% | 0.57% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 60 | Venus Williams | 1525 | 46.99% | 14.39% | 4.30% | 1.34% | 0.37% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 61 | Kaia Kanepi | 1627 | 63.09% | 24.76% | 11.79% | 5.17% | 2.09% | 0.66% | 0.22% |
| 62 | Tereza Martincova | 1534 | 36.91% | 10.46% | 3.73% | 1.20% | 0.35% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 63 | Catherine Harrison | 1484 | 17.60% | 6.16% | 1.83% | 0.49% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 64 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1752 | 82.40% | 58.61% | 37.47% | 22.64% | 13.04% | 6.14% | 3.03% |
| 65 | Simona Halep | 1828 | 88.02% | 76.72% | 61.32% | 41.98% | 29.38% | 17.97% | 10.40% |
| 66 | Dariia Snigur | 1482 | 11.98% | 5.78% | 2.09% | 0.52% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 67 | Magdalena Frech | 1469 | 43.52% | 6.81% | 2.35% | 0.55% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 68 | Rebecca Marino | 1514 | 56.48% | 10.70% | 4.33% | 1.22% | 0.35% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 69 | Nadia Podoroska | 1533 | 62.49% | 23.62% | 5.87% | 1.78% | 0.56% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 70 | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | 1445 | 37.51% | 10.03% | 1.77% | 0.37% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 71 | Zhang Shuai | 1605 | 46.04% | 29.68% | 9.47% | 3.70% | 1.49% | 0.47% | 0.14% |
| 72 | Jil Teichmann | 1633 | 53.96% | 36.67% | 12.79% | 5.46% | 2.40% | 0.84% | 0.27% |
| 73 | Madison Keys | 1697 | 71.24% | 46.52% | 23.54% | 10.69% | 5.65% | 2.44% | 0.99% |
| 74 | Dayana Yastremska | 1539 | 28.76% | 12.55% | 3.86% | 1.06% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 75 | Camila Giorgi | 1622 | 64.83% | 29.69% | 12.11% | 4.40% | 1.87% | 0.63% | 0.20% |
| 76 | Anna Bondar | 1515 | 35.17% | 11.24% | 3.17% | 0.79% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 77 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse | 1497 | 33.70% | 7.79% | 2.48% | 0.58% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 78 | Daria Saville | 1615 | 66.30% | 23.81% | 11.24% | 4.00% | 1.66% | 0.54% | 0.16% |
| 79 | Leolia Jeanjean | 1515 | 18.99% | 7.91% | 2.69% | 0.67% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 80 | Coco Gauff | 1767 | 81.01% | 60.49% | 40.92% | 22.23% | 13.86% | 7.34% | 3.65% |
| 81 | Beatriz Haddad Maia | 1683 | 71.21% | 37.17% | 20.19% | 11.50% | 4.84% | 2.00% | 0.77% |
| 82 | Ana Konjuh | 1525 | 28.79% | 9.21% | 3.15% | 1.13% | 0.27% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 83 | Harmony Tan | 1477 | 20.60% | 5.99% | 1.72% | 0.52% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 84 | Bianca Andreescu | 1711 | 79.40% | 47.62% | 27.64% | 16.80% | 7.70% | 3.49% | 1.47% |
| 85 | Rebecca Peterson | 1511 | 46.32% | 13.10% | 3.83% | 1.30% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 86 | Anna Kalinskaya | 1537 | 53.68% | 16.70% | 5.38% | 2.01% | 0.50% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 87 | Kamilla Rakhimova | 1478 | 19.02% | 8.25% | 2.12% | 0.64% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 88 | Caroline Garcia | 1730 | 80.98% | 61.95% | 35.99% | 22.74% | 10.99% | 5.25% | 2.35% |
| 89 | Alison Riske-Amritraj | 1642 | 69.35% | 42.24% | 21.41% | 9.52% | 3.51% | 1.27% | 0.42% |
| 90 | Eleana Yu | 1500 | 30.65% | 12.52% | 4.06% | 1.09% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 91 | Ann Li | 1582 | 55.48% | 26.40% | 11.26% | 4.11% | 1.22% | 0.35% | 0.09% |
| 92 | Camila Osorio | 1543 | 44.52% | 18.84% | 7.11% | 2.26% | 0.58% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 93 | Diane Parry | 1534 | 52.34% | 16.52% | 6.96% | 2.13% | 0.53% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 94 | Wang Xiyu | 1517 | 47.66% | 14.14% | 5.65% | 1.62% | 0.38% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 95 | Tatjana Maria | 1543 | 26.53% | 13.94% | 6.07% | 1.93% | 0.50% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 96 | Maria Sakkari | 1720 | 73.47% | 55.39% | 37.47% | 20.70% | 9.73% | 4.53% | 1.97% |
| 97 | Ons Jabeur | 1830 | 87.25% | 75.11% | 57.48% | 37.47% | 25.67% | 16.13% | 9.37% |
| 98 | Madison Brengle | 1496 | 12.75% | 6.06% | 2.05% | 0.50% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 99 | Elizabeth Mandlik | 1510 | 49.01% | 9.09% | 3.24% | 0.83% | 0.22% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 100 | Tamara Zidansek | 1517 | 50.99% | 9.74% | 3.55% | 0.93% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 101 | Viktoria Kuzmova | 1450 | 28.32% | 7.94% | 1.42% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 102 | Sara Sorribes Tormo | 1611 | 71.68% | 34.51% | 11.26% | 4.15% | 1.63% | 0.55% | 0.17% |
| 103 | Arantxa Rus | 1452 | 22.14% | 7.69% | 1.39% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 104 | Shelby Rogers | 1671 | 77.86% | 49.85% | 19.60% | 8.70% | 4.12% | 1.71% | 0.63% |
| 105 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1737 | 72.25% | 58.23% | 32.00% | 15.95% | 9.02% | 4.56% | 2.08% |
| 106 | Donna Vekic | 1571 | 27.75% | 17.06% | 5.92% | 1.76% | 0.60% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 107 | Coco Vandeweghe | 1504 | 54.55% | 14.28% | 3.94% | 0.90% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 108 | Maryna Zanevska | 1472 | 45.45% | 10.43% | 2.56% | 0.52% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 109 | Nuria Parrizas Diaz | 1482 | 52.29% | 10.82% | 3.18% | 0.67% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 110 | Dalma Galfi | 1466 | 47.71% | 9.23% | 2.55% | 0.50% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 111 | Harriet Dart | 1508 | 17.37% | 9.52% | 3.07% | 0.72% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 112 | Daria Kasatkina | 1779 | 82.63% | 70.42% | 46.79% | 25.85% | 16.06% | 9.02% | 4.63% |
| 113 | Leylah Fernandez | 1658 | 75.87% | 43.16% | 25.68% | 11.01% | 4.08% | 1.63% | 0.58% |
| 114 | Oceane Dodin | 1459 | 24.13% | 7.36% | 2.43% | 0.49% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Sara Bejlek | 1500 | 29.38% | 10.35% | 3.95% | 0.94% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 116 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1652 | 70.62% | 39.13% | 22.97% | 9.66% | 3.50% | 1.37% | 0.48% |
| 117 | Elina Avanesyan | 1505 | 48.69% | 16.90% | 5.70% | 1.39% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 118 | Aleksandra Krunic | 1514 | 51.31% | 18.39% | 6.42% | 1.63% | 0.35% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 119 | Fernanda Contreras Gomez | 1497 | 27.48% | 13.22% | 4.33% | 1.02% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 120 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1665 | 72.52% | 51.49% | 28.52% | 12.49% | 4.73% | 1.93% | 0.70% |
| 121 | Martina Trevisan | 1517 | 64.48% | 19.19% | 4.38% | 1.56% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 122 | Evgeniya Rodina | 1413 | 35.52% | 6.72% | 0.96% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Karolina Muchova | 1679 | 54.00% | 40.76% | 17.10% | 9.85% | 3.90% | 1.66% | 0.63% |
| 124 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1651 | 46.00% | 33.33% | 12.75% | 6.86% | 2.48% | 0.96% | 0.33% |
| 125 | Danka Kovinic | 1475 | 15.99% | 3.45% | 1.06% | 0.32% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 126 | Serena Williams | 1763 | 84.01% | 47.96% | 32.84% | 22.50% | 11.44% | 6.18% | 3.04% |
| 127 | Jaqueline Cristian | 1576 | 26.13% | 8.26% | 3.61% | 1.57% | 0.43% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 128 | Anett Kontaveit | 1757 | 73.87% | 40.33% | 27.30% | 18.49% | 9.24% | 4.91% | 2.37% |
