The final Grand Slam of the year, the US Open, is starting tomorrow, and for the next 2 weeks, I will publish round-by-round updates. After the jump, you will find my pre-tournament predictions for the upcoming tournament.
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- Novak Djokovic is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 46.45% chance of winning the whole thing, with Carlos Alcaraz next at 22.03%. The 3rd most likely is Daniil Medvedev with 8.16% and Alexander Zverev 4th with 3.48%
- Holger Rune has the easiest overall draw, as he is 0.74 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. This comes at the expense of Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has the toughest overall draw. He is 0.74 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- Dominik Koepfer has the toughest 1st round match, as he's 43.6 percentage points less likely to win than a player of his rank is expected to win. Hugo Dellien got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's 41.28 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than his ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1994 | 92.70% | 87.24% | 80.26% | 71.97% | 54.68% | 40.70% | 22.03% |
| 2 | Dominik Koepfer | 1552 | 7.30% | 4.07% | 1.94% | 0.82% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 3 | Lloyd Harris | 1522 | 52.95% | 4.81% | 2.10% | 0.80% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Guido Pella | 1501 | 47.05% | 3.89% | 1.58% | 0.56% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 5 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1578 | 51.12% | 27.48% | 4.03% | 1.84% | 0.46% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 6 | Jordan Thompson | 1570 | 48.88% | 25.74% | 3.66% | 1.63% | 0.40% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 7 | Daniel Elahi Galan | 1488 | 36.06% | 13.62% | 1.39% | 0.47% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Daniel Evans | 1587 | 63.94% | 33.15% | 5.03% | 2.36% | 0.62% | 0.15% | 0.02% |
| 9 | Tallon Griekspoor | 1630 | 57.10% | 36.73% | 19.09% | 3.94% | 1.21% | 0.35% | 0.06% |
| 10 | Arthur Fils | 1580 | 42.90% | 24.69% | 11.15% | 1.93% | 0.49% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 11 | Jason Kubler | 1507 | 44.82% | 16.08% | 5.71% | 0.74% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 12 | Matteo Arnaldi | 1543 | 55.18% | 22.49% | 9.04% | 1.36% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 13 | Thanasi Kokkinakis | 1588 | 62.98% | 27.25% | 13.98% | 2.48% | 0.65% | 0.16% | 0.02% |
| 14 | Hsu Yu-Hsiou | 1495 | 37.02% | 11.68% | 4.49% | 0.56% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Alexander Shevchenko | 1500 | 25.85% | 10.97% | 4.29% | 0.54% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 16 | Cameron Norrie | 1683 | 74.15% | 50.09% | 32.25% | 7.98% | 2.95% | 1.04% | 0.23% |
| 17 | Alexander Zverev | 1846 | 86.23% | 78.14% | 57.29% | 37.26% | 16.36% | 9.29% | 3.48% |
| 18 | Aleksandar Vukic | 1528 | 13.77% | 8.36% | 2.66% | 0.71% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Daniel Altmaier | 1465 | 54.05% | 7.72% | 1.91% | 0.39% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 20 | Constant Lestienne | 1437 | 45.95% | 5.78% | 1.27% | 0.23% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 21 | Andy Murray | 1653 | 68.45% | 31.22% | 10.98% | 4.48% | 1.11% | 0.35% | 0.07% |
| 22 | Corentin Moutet | 1518 | 31.55% | 8.94% | 2.00% | 0.51% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 23 | Alex Molcan | 1593 | 31.64% | 15.01% | 4.35% | 1.46% | 0.29% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 24 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1726 | 68.36% | 44.83% | 19.54% | 9.78% | 3.06% | 1.25% | 0.32% |
| 25 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 1542 | 58.69% | 21.85% | 5.61% | 1.32% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 26 | Otto Virtanen | 1481 | 41.31% | 12.21% | 2.46% | 0.45% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Stan Wawrinka | 1667 | 62.58% | 43.99% | 17.37% | 6.47% | 1.68% | 0.56% | 0.12% |
| 28 | Yoshihito Nishioka | 1578 | 37.42% | 21.95% | 6.44% | 1.75% | 0.33% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 29 | Nicolas Moreno de Alboran | 1500 | 37.09% | 6.58% | 2.42% | 0.48% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 30 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1592 | 62.91% | 16.33% | 8.03% | 2.29% | 0.46% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 31 | Yannick Hanfmann | 1570 | 18.03% | 9.31% | 4.29% | 1.13% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 32 | Jannik Sinner | 1833 | 81.97% | 67.77% | 53.38% | 31.29% | 13.26% | 7.29% | 2.62% |
| 33 | Daniil Medvedev | 1904 | 91.27% | 82.06% | 64.28% | 51.00% | 36.79% | 18.66% | 8.16% |
| 34 | Attila Balazs | 1496 | 8.73% | 4.02% | 1.09% | 0.32% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Max Purcell | 1527 | 50.90% | 7.18% | 2.19% | 0.73% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 36 | Christopher O'Connell | 1521 | 49.10% | 6.74% | 2.01% | 0.66% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 37 | Kei Nishikori | 1728 | 80.44% | 50.69% | 18.11% | 10.80% | 5.33% | 1.58% | 0.41% |
| 38 | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 1483 | 19.56% | 5.73% | 0.85% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 39 | Sebastian Baez | 1630 | 48.28% | 20.65% | 5.33% | 2.48% | 0.89% | 0.18% | 0.03% |
| 40 | Borna Coric | 1642 | 51.72% | 22.93% | 6.17% | 2.97% | 1.12% | 0.24% | 0.04% |
| 41 | Nicolas Jarry | 1648 | 70.12% | 47.96% | 22.44% | 6.52% | 2.50% | 0.55% | 0.11% |
| 42 | Luca Van Assche | 1499 | 29.88% | 14.35% | 4.12% | 0.66% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Albert Ramos Vinolas | 1491 | 44.37% | 15.47% | 4.30% | 0.67% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 44 | Alex Michelson | 1531 | 55.63% | 22.23% | 7.15% | 1.31% | 0.32% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 45 | Wu Yibing | 1525 | 43.73% | 12.15% | 5.23% | 0.94% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 46 | Dusan Lajovic | 1569 | 56.27% | 18.35% | 9.00% | 1.94% | 0.56% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 47 | Timofey Skatov | 1478 | 17.39% | 6.92% | 2.54% | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 48 | Alex De Minaur | 1749 | 82.61% | 62.58% | 45.22% | 18.38% | 9.58% | 3.05% | 0.84% |
| 49 | Karen Khachanov | 1761 | 80.76% | 61.52% | 36.85% | 20.34% | 9.17% | 3.04% | 0.88% |
| 50 | Michael Mmoh | 1511 | 19.24% | 8.46% | 2.36% | 0.57% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 1481 | 34.45% | 7.67% | 1.89% | 0.40% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 52 | John Isner | 1593 | 65.55% | 22.36% | 8.39% | 2.78% | 0.72% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 53 | Radu Albot | 1490 | 29.00% | 7.07% | 1.88% | 0.42% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 54 | Jack Draper | 1646 | 71.00% | 29.83% | 13.46% | 5.35% | 1.68% | 0.37% | 0.07% |
| 55 | Marc-Andrea Husler | 1441 | 14.79% | 4.32% | 0.94% | 0.17% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 56 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1745 | 85.21% | 58.78% | 34.22% | 18.19% | 7.85% | 2.48% | 0.68% |
| 57 | Ugo Humbert | 1572 | 27.62% | 15.19% | 4.49% | 1.44% | 0.34% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 58 | Matteo Berrettini | 1739 | 72.38% | 55.13% | 28.13% | 15.24% | 6.47% | 1.99% | 0.53% |
| 59 | Diego Schwartzman | 1552 | 54.80% | 17.21% | 4.71% | 1.41% | 0.31% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 60 | Arthur Rinderknech | 1519 | 45.20% | 12.46% | 2.98% | 0.78% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 61 | Taro Daniel | 1515 | 26.90% | 5.68% | 1.82% | 0.47% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Gael Monfils | 1689 | 73.10% | 29.86% | 16.28% | 7.69% | 2.79% | 0.72% | 0.16% |
| 63 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1612 | 25.07% | 11.47% | 5.09% | 1.89% | 0.52% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 64 | Andrey Rublev | 1803 | 74.93% | 52.98% | 36.49% | 22.86% | 11.54% | 4.39% | 1.44% |
| 65 | Casper Ruud | 1739 | 83.85% | 61.45% | 40.18% | 26.00% | 14.48% | 3.51% | 1.10% |
| 66 | Emilio Nava | 1453 | 16.15% | 5.62% | 1.58% | 0.44% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 67 | J. J. Wolf | 1586 | 57.59% | 20.45% | 9.16% | 4.06% | 1.44% | 0.19% | 0.03% |
| 68 | Zhang Zhizhen | 1533 | 42.41% | 12.48% | 4.71% | 1.76% | 0.51% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 69 | Rinky Hijikata | 1520 | 53.10% | 15.95% | 4.97% | 1.77% | 0.49% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 70 | Pavel Kotov | 1498 | 46.90% | 12.90% | 3.71% | 1.23% | 0.31% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 71 | Marton Fucsovics | 1631 | 41.16% | 27.50% | 12.40% | 6.25% | 2.58% | 0.42% | 0.09% |
| 72 | Sebastian Korda | 1693 | 58.84% | 43.65% | 23.30% | 13.69% | 6.77% | 1.39% | 0.37% |
| 73 | Adrian Mannarino | 1644 | 66.22% | 43.13% | 22.24% | 10.39% | 4.46% | 0.76% | 0.16% |
| 74 | Yosuke Watanuki | 1527 | 33.78% | 16.49% | 6.01% | 1.90% | 0.54% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 75 | Richard Gasquet | 1545 | 52.83% | 22.00% | 8.50% | 2.87% | 0.88% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 76 | Fabian Marozsan | 1525 | 47.17% | 18.38% | 6.65% | 2.09% | 0.59% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 77 | Sebastian Ofner | 1531 | 56.30% | 18.14% | 7.79% | 2.50% | 0.72% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 78 | Nuno Borges | 1487 | 43.70% | 11.92% | 4.42% | 1.19% | 0.29% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 79 | Learner Tien | 1494 | 21.95% | 10.43% | 3.97% | 1.11% | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 80 | Frances Tiafoe | 1715 | 78.05% | 59.50% | 40.42% | 22.75% | 11.91% | 2.64% | 0.75% |
| 81 | Tommy Paul | 1717 | 83.99% | 63.67% | 41.99% | 22.00% | 12.44% | 2.78% | 0.80% |
| 82 | Stefano Travaglia | 1429 | 16.01% | 6.03% | 1.69% | 0.32% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Roman Safiullin | 1542 | 58.84% | 19.46% | 8.24% | 2.50% | 0.83% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 84 | Marco Cecchinato | 1480 | 41.16% | 10.84% | 3.70% | 0.88% | 0.23% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 85 | Ilya Ivashka | 1561 | 58.91% | 24.01% | 9.47% | 3.08% | 1.10% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 86 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 1498 | 41.09% | 13.40% | 4.28% | 1.10% | 0.31% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 87 | Marcos Giron | 1552 | 34.07% | 17.83% | 6.83% | 2.15% | 0.74% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 88 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1666 | 65.93% | 44.76% | 23.80% | 10.88% | 5.40% | 1.00% | 0.24% |
| 89 | Alexander Bublik | 1637 | 50.24% | 32.84% | 12.61% | 6.21% | 2.83% | 0.47% | 0.10% |
| 90 | Dominic Thiem | 1635 | 49.76% | 32.42% | 12.39% | 6.07% | 2.76% | 0.45% | 0.09% |
| 91 | Pedro Cachin | 1547 | 56.96% | 21.34% | 5.96% | 2.22% | 0.75% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 92 | Ben Shelton | 1498 | 43.04% | 13.41% | 3.08% | 0.97% | 0.27% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 93 | Aslan Karatsev | 1545 | 36.20% | 8.80% | 3.73% | 1.38% | 0.46% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 94 | Jiri Lehecka | 1643 | 63.80% | 22.40% | 12.59% | 6.31% | 2.93% | 0.50% | 0.11% |
| 95 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 1551 | 19.03% | 8.00% | 3.46% | 1.31% | 0.45% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 96 | Holger Rune | 1803 | 80.97% | 60.80% | 46.17% | 32.61% | 22.06% | 6.59% | 2.56% |
| 97 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1803 | 63.21% | 50.41% | 40.63% | 26.78% | 7.40% | 4.69% | 1.82% |
| 98 | Milos Raonic | 1709 | 36.79% | 25.63% | 18.15% | 9.77% | 1.98% | 1.00% | 0.28% |
| 99 | Dominic Stricker | 1538 | 43.44% | 9.26% | 4.42% | 1.41% | 0.15% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 100 | Alexei Popyrin | 1584 | 56.56% | 14.70% | 7.99% | 2.99% | 0.38% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 101 | Quentin Halys | 1485 | 41.39% | 15.51% | 3.38% | 0.88% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 102 | Benjamin Bonzi | 1546 | 58.61% | 26.89% | 7.49% | 2.46% | 0.27% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 103 | Kwon Soon-Woo | 1590 | 54.86% | 32.77% | 10.76% | 4.11% | 0.54% | 0.19% | 0.03% |
| 104 | Christopher Eubanks | 1556 | 45.14% | 24.83% | 7.19% | 2.45% | 0.28% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 105 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1694 | 75.38% | 55.14% | 28.44% | 14.51% | 2.80% | 1.37% | 0.36% |
| 106 | Titouan Droguet | 1500 | 24.62% | 11.61% | 3.23% | 0.88% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 107 | Jakub Mensik | 1500 | 44.86% | 13.85% | 3.85% | 1.05% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 108 | Gregoire Barrere | 1536 | 55.14% | 19.40% | 6.15% | 1.92% | 0.20% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 109 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1569 | 58.43% | 18.03% | 7.90% | 2.77% | 0.34% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 110 | Juan Pablo Varillas | 1510 | 41.57% | 10.21% | 3.70% | 1.05% | 0.10% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 111 | Steve Johnson | 1527 | 20.27% | 9.63% | 3.69% | 1.12% | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 112 | Taylor Fritz | 1765 | 79.73% | 62.14% | 43.04% | 25.85% | 6.32% | 3.69% | 1.26% |
| 113 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1668 | 55.38% | 43.93% | 26.76% | 4.15% | 1.83% | 0.83% | 0.20% |
| 114 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1631 | 44.62% | 33.72% | 18.88% | 2.55% | 1.00% | 0.40% | 0.08% |
| 115 | Hugo Dellien | 1415 | 44.90% | 9.17% | 2.59% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 116 | Borna Gojo | 1450 | 55.10% | 13.18% | 4.27% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 117 | Jiri Vesely | 1504 | 53.11% | 18.47% | 6.76% | 0.56% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 118 | Enzo Couacuad | 1482 | 46.89% | 15.08% | 5.12% | 0.38% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 119 | Zachary Svajda | 1470 | 24.43% | 11.37% | 3.69% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 120 | Francisco Cerundolo | 1666 | 75.57% | 55.08% | 31.94% | 4.90% | 2.15% | 0.97% | 0.23% |
| 121 | Laslo Djere | 1630 | 59.29% | 40.83% | 4.68% | 2.41% | 0.95% | 0.38% | 0.08% |
| 122 | Brandon Nakashima | 1565 | 40.71% | 24.55% | 2.17% | 0.93% | 0.29% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 123 | Sho Shimabukuro | 1489 | 49.19% | 16.85% | 1.09% | 0.36% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 124 | Hugo Gaston | 1495 | 50.81% | 17.77% | 1.18% | 0.40% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 125 | Bernabe Zapata Miralles | 1505 | 51.74% | 2.75% | 1.14% | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 126 | Ethan Quinn | 1493 | 48.26% | 2.43% | 0.97% | 0.32% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 127 | Alexandre Muller | 1504 | 3.62% | 1.84% | 0.76% | 0.27% | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 128 | Novak Djokovic | 2074 | 96.38% | 92.98% | 88.00% | 81.67% | 71.88% | 63.81% | 46.45% |
