The 1st round of the US Open is now complete, so let's take a look at how that affected my rankings of the players still in and also how well I expect them to do for the rest of the tournament.
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View my pre-tournament predictions for the Men and the Women here, but before the latest rankings, some stats I calculated for the top 150 players:
| Rank | ± Men | ± Wmn |
|---|---|---|
| 1-10 | 2 | 32 |
| 11-20 | 17 | -19 |
| 21-50 | 22 | 17 |
| 51-100 | -38 | 29 |
| 101-150 | -34 | -49 |
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Now, my latest Men's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1995 | 93.52% | 85.18% | 75.77% | 56.60% | 41.49% | 22.34% |
| 2 | Lloyd Harris | 1531 | 6.48% | 2.68% | 1.01% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1588 | 49.07% | 5.87% | 2.65% | 0.63% | 0.15% | 0.02% |
| 4 | Daniel Evans | 1594 | 50.93% | 6.26% | 2.88% | 0.71% | 0.17% | 0.03% |
| 5 | Arthur Fils | 1591 | 55.64% | 23.98% | 3.66% | 0.89% | 0.21% | 0.03% |
| 6 | Matteo Arnaldi | 1552 | 44.36% | 16.82% | 2.18% | 0.45% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 7 | Hsu Yu-Hsiou | 1508 | 26.17% | 10.63% | 1.14% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Cameron Norrie | 1688 | 73.83% | 48.58% | 10.71% | 3.77% | 1.30% | 0.29% |
| 9 | Alexander Zverev | 1849 | 89.65% | 62.42% | 38.60% | 16.11% | 8.94% | 3.33% |
| 10 | Daniel Altmaier | 1474 | 10.35% | 2.20% | 0.40% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Andy Murray | 1659 | 39.58% | 11.95% | 4.44% | 1.02% | 0.32% | 0.06% |
| 12 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1733 | 60.42% | 23.43% | 10.91% | 3.21% | 1.29% | 0.33% |
| 13 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 1550 | 32.79% | 7.08% | 1.49% | 0.22% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 14 | Stan Wawrinka | 1675 | 67.21% | 23.45% | 8.08% | 1.95% | 0.64% | 0.14% |
| 15 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1599 | 20.33% | 9.17% | 2.37% | 0.43% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 16 | Jannik Sinner | 1836 | 79.67% | 60.30% | 33.72% | 13.58% | 7.31% | 2.63% |
| 17 | Daniil Medvedev | 1906 | 89.64% | 76.18% | 58.74% | 42.41% | 21.02% | 9.14% |
| 18 | Christopher O'Connell | 1531 | 10.36% | 4.25% | 1.28% | 0.31% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 1493 | 30.04% | 3.68% | 0.95% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 20 | Sebastian Baez | 1640 | 69.96% | 15.90% | 6.97% | 2.59% | 0.52% | 0.10% |
| 21 | Nicolas Jarry | 1654 | 65.86% | 28.27% | 7.97% | 3.11% | 0.65% | 0.13% |
| 22 | Alex Michelson | 1539 | 34.14% | 9.87% | 1.80% | 0.46% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 23 | Wu Yibing | 1537 | 22.44% | 8.80% | 1.58% | 0.40% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 24 | Alex De Minaur | 1752 | 77.56% | 53.06% | 20.70% | 10.86% | 3.34% | 0.92% |
| 25 | Michael Mmoh | 1528 | 39.75% | 10.29% | 2.28% | 0.42% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 26 | John Isner | 1600 | 60.25% | 20.77% | 6.21% | 1.52% | 0.26% | 0.04% |
| 27 | Jack Draper | 1652 | 36.41% | 22.31% | 8.09% | 2.41% | 0.50% | 0.10% |
| 28 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1748 | 63.59% | 46.62% | 23.04% | 9.47% | 2.87% | 0.78% |
| 29 | Matteo Berrettini | 1745 | 77.53% | 36.34% | 21.67% | 8.81% | 2.64% | 0.71% |
| 30 | Arthur Rinderknech | 1530 | 22.47% | 4.67% | 1.46% | 0.27% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 31 | Gael Monfils | 1694 | 34.52% | 17.03% | 8.99% | 3.11% | 0.77% | 0.17% |
| 32 | Andrey Rublev | 1805 | 65.48% | 41.97% | 28.27% | 13.66% | 5.04% | 1.65% |
| 33 | Casper Ruud | 1743 | 75.82% | 51.99% | 31.86% | 20.05% | 4.66% | 1.42% |
| 34 | Zhang Zhizhen | 1544 | 24.18% | 10.06% | 3.47% | 1.25% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 35 | Rinky Hijikata | 1529 | 34.18% | 9.81% | 3.20% | 1.09% | 0.11% | 0.01% |
| 36 | Marton Fucsovics | 1643 | 65.82% | 28.13% | 13.41% | 6.62% | 1.04% | 0.21% |
| 37 | Adrian Mannarino | 1651 | 66.01% | 30.98% | 14.49% | 7.31% | 1.19% | 0.25% |
| 38 | Fabian Marozsan | 1536 | 33.99% | 10.88% | 3.47% | 1.21% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 39 | Sebastian Ofner | 1539 | 26.23% | 10.48% | 3.39% | 1.20% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 40 | Frances Tiafoe | 1719 | 73.77% | 47.66% | 26.71% | 15.97% | 3.40% | 0.95% |
| 41 | Tommy Paul | 1720 | 72.59% | 45.30% | 30.57% | 16.86% | 3.60% | 1.01% |
| 42 | Roman Safiullin | 1551 | 27.41% | 10.82% | 4.80% | 1.56% | 0.17% | 0.02% |
| 43 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 1510 | 28.13% | 8.10% | 3.15% | 0.87% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 44 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1673 | 71.87% | 35.77% | 21.97% | 10.69% | 1.91% | 0.44% |
| 45 | Dominic Thiem | 1645 | 68.57% | 42.31% | 19.77% | 8.86% | 1.41% | 0.29% |
| 46 | Ben Shelton | 1510 | 31.43% | 13.35% | 3.91% | 1.08% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 47 | Aslan Karatsev | 1558 | 48.62% | 21.23% | 7.44% | 2.48% | 0.27% | 0.04% |
| 48 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 1567 | 51.38% | 23.12% | 8.38% | 2.89% | 0.33% | 0.05% |
| 49 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1810 | 81.79% | 66.07% | 43.45% | 11.73% | 7.91% | 3.05% |
| 50 | Dominic Stricker | 1549 | 18.21% | 8.80% | 2.93% | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 51 | Benjamin Bonzi | 1554 | 48.15% | 11.78% | 3.99% | 0.42% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| 52 | Christopher Eubanks | 1567 | 51.85% | 13.35% | 4.72% | 0.52% | 0.18% | 0.03% |
| 53 | Titouan Droguet | 1515 | 50.58% | 12.50% | 3.14% | 0.28% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 54 | Jakub Mensik | 1511 | 49.42% | 12.02% | 2.97% | 0.26% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 55 | Juan Pablo Varillas | 1521 | 19.40% | 9.93% | 2.56% | 0.23% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 56 | Taylor Fritz | 1769 | 80.60% | 65.55% | 36.24% | 8.51% | 5.30% | 1.77% |
| 57 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1642 | 74.12% | 38.67% | 4.80% | 1.77% | 0.79% | 0.16% |
| 58 | Borna Gojo | 1459 | 25.88% | 7.36% | 0.42% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Jiri Vesely | 1513 | 28.79% | 11.19% | 0.81% | 0.18% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 60 | Francisco Cerundolo | 1671 | 71.21% | 42.78% | 5.96% | 2.41% | 1.17% | 0.27% |
| 61 | Laslo Djere | 1638 | 68.32% | 6.67% | 3.43% | 1.25% | 0.55% | 0.11% |
| 62 | Hugo Gaston | 1505 | 31.68% | 1.69% | 0.57% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 63 | Bernabe Zapata Miralles | 1515 | 3.82% | 1.48% | 0.52% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 64 | Novak Djokovic | 2075 | 96.18% | 90.16% | 83.50% | 71.83% | 64.87% | 46.76% |
And my latest Women's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iga Swiatek | 1972 | 89.97% | 83.08% | 70.58% | 53.72% | 41.43% | 29.90% |
| 2 | Daria Saville | 1591 | 10.03% | 5.76% | 2.40% | 0.68% | 0.20% | 0.05% |
| 3 | Lauren Davis | 1538 | 49.82% | 5.54% | 1.95% | 0.44% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 4 | Kaja Juvan | 1540 | 50.18% | 5.62% | 1.98% | 0.45% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 5 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1737 | 74.65% | 56.56% | 16.72% | 7.80% | 3.73% | 1.55% |
| 6 | Elina Avanesyan | 1549 | 25.35% | 13.08% | 1.96% | 0.47% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 7 | Wang Xiyu | 1507 | 42.47% | 11.42% | 1.44% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 8 | Bernada Pera | 1560 | 57.53% | 18.93% | 2.97% | 0.74% | 0.19% | 0.04% |
| 9 | Petra Kvitova | 1786 | 63.61% | 44.36% | 23.37% | 8.80% | 4.81% | 2.32% |
| 10 | Caroline Wozniacki | 1689 | 36.39% | 20.74% | 8.25% | 2.27% | 0.94% | 0.33% |
| 11 | Jennifer Brady | 1668 | 59.93% | 23.04% | 8.53% | 2.18% | 0.84% | 0.28% |
| 12 | Magda Linette | 1598 | 40.07% | 11.86% | 3.41% | 0.67% | 0.20% | 0.05% |
| 13 | Elise Mertens | 1637 | 40.64% | 12.30% | 4.81% | 1.10% | 0.38% | 0.11% |
| 14 | Danielle Collins | 1703 | 59.36% | 22.60% | 10.86% | 3.14% | 1.35% | 0.50% |
| 15 | Mirra Andreeva | 1581 | 18.57% | 6.82% | 2.18% | 0.40% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 16 | Coco Gauff | 1838 | 81.43% | 58.28% | 38.59% | 16.86% | 10.37% | 5.73% |
| 17 | Elena Rybakina | 1833 | 72.47% | 53.90% | 34.85% | 23.23% | 10.31% | 5.63% |
| 18 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1664 | 27.53% | 14.44% | 6.09% | 2.71% | 0.68% | 0.22% |
| 19 | Anna Kalinskaya | 1646 | 49.73% | 15.69% | 6.25% | 2.63% | 0.62% | 0.19% |
| 20 | Sorana Cirstea | 1648 | 50.27% | 15.97% | 6.40% | 2.71% | 0.64% | 0.20% |
| 21 | Victoria Azarenka | 1685 | 67.15% | 28.54% | 11.79% | 5.56% | 1.51% | 0.53% |
| 22 | Zhu Lin | 1561 | 32.85% | 9.14% | 2.41% | 0.76% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 23 | Yuriko Miyazaki | 1494 | 15.99% | 4.81% | 0.96% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 24 | Belinda Bencic | 1782 | 84.01% | 57.50% | 31.24% | 18.83% | 7.18% | 3.43% |
| 25 | Karolina Muchova | 1785 | 82.71% | 54.96% | 39.92% | 21.46% | 8.25% | 3.96% |
| 26 | Magdalena Frech | 1513 | 17.29% | 5.35% | 2.01% | 0.42% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 27 | Taylor Townsend | 1516 | 25.10% | 5.84% | 2.23% | 0.47% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 28 | Beatriz Haddad Maia | 1706 | 74.90% | 33.84% | 21.43% | 9.23% | 2.72% | 1.02% |
| 29 | Sara Sorribes Tormo | 1686 | 72.31% | 52.89% | 23.25% | 9.39% | 2.56% | 0.90% |
| 30 | Wang Xinyu | 1519 | 27.69% | 14.16% | 3.41% | 0.73% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 31 | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | 1482 | 42.86% | 12.65% | 2.61% | 0.47% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 32 | Rebeka Masarova | 1532 | 57.14% | 20.30% | 5.15% | 1.16% | 0.17% | 0.03% |
| 33 | Wang Yafan | 1468 | 34.43% | 12.01% | 1.96% | 0.32% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 34 | Katie Boulter | 1579 | 65.57% | 33.08% | 8.83% | 2.32% | 0.58% | 0.11% |
| 35 | Peyton Stearns | 1557 | 44.86% | 23.39% | 5.68% | 1.36% | 0.31% | 0.05% |
| 36 | Clara Tauson | 1592 | 55.14% | 31.51% | 8.86% | 2.45% | 0.64% | 0.13% |
| 37 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1748 | 61.16% | 28.77% | 21.26% | 10.07% | 4.50% | 1.63% |
| 38 | Lesia Tsurenko | 1669 | 38.84% | 14.34% | 9.23% | 3.40% | 1.18% | 0.32% |
| 39 | Martina Trevisan | 1531 | 16.61% | 4.28% | 1.93% | 0.41% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 40 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1811 | 83.39% | 52.61% | 42.24% | 23.70% | 12.59% | 5.56% |
| 41 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1725 | 82.41% | 45.49% | 19.14% | 9.69% | 4.04% | 1.35% |
| 42 | Tamara Korpatsch | 1457 | 17.59% | 3.93% | 0.57% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Yanina Wickmayer | 1531 | 23.84% | 7.38% | 1.49% | 0.40% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 44 | Madison Keys | 1733 | 76.16% | 43.21% | 18.62% | 9.62% | 4.11% | 1.41% |
| 45 | Elina Svitolina | 1720 | 59.38% | 22.78% | 11.85% | 5.93% | 2.44% | 0.80% |
| 46 | Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | 1654 | 40.62% | 12.46% | 5.35% | 2.21% | 0.73% | 0.19% |
| 47 | Patricia Maria Tig | 1484 | 11.27% | 2.61% | 0.59% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 48 | Jessica Pegula | 1842 | 88.73% | 62.15% | 42.39% | 27.88% | 15.94% | 7.69% |
| 49 | Ons Jabeur | 1822 | 76.67% | 55.37% | 42.68% | 23.28% | 13.40% | 6.12% |
| 50 | Linda Noskova | 1616 | 23.33% | 10.30% | 5.34% | 1.56% | 0.47% | 0.10% |
| 51 | Petra Martic | 1656 | 49.84% | 17.08% | 9.78% | 3.29% | 1.16% | 0.30% |
| 52 | Marie Bouzkova | 1657 | 50.16% | 17.25% | 9.90% | 3.35% | 1.18% | 0.31% |
| 53 | Zheng Qinwen | 1680 | 67.19% | 48.47% | 20.05% | 7.32% | 2.81% | 0.80% |
| 54 | Kaia Kanepi | 1556 | 32.81% | 18.32% | 4.83% | 1.12% | 0.27% | 0.05% |
| 55 | Eva Lys | 1504 | 47.13% | 15.03% | 3.20% | 0.60% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 56 | Lucia Bronzetti | 1524 | 52.87% | 18.18% | 4.22% | 0.86% | 0.18% | 0.03% |
| 57 | Daria Kasatkina | 1732 | 65.62% | 54.19% | 21.84% | 11.41% | 5.17% | 1.78% |
| 58 | Sofia Kenin | 1620 | 34.38% | 24.51% | 6.77% | 2.55% | 0.79% | 0.18% |
| 59 | Greet Minnen | 1453 | 47.48% | 9.70% | 1.34% | 0.27% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 60 | Sachia Vickery | 1470 | 52.52% | 11.60% | 1.74% | 0.37% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 61 | Karolina Pliskova | 1654 | 63.57% | 17.11% | 8.65% | 3.63% | 1.27% | 0.33% |
| 62 | Clara Burel | 1558 | 36.43% | 6.68% | 2.55% | 0.77% | 0.18% | 0.03% |
| 63 | Jodie Burrage | 1531 | 11.85% | 4.47% | 1.56% | 0.42% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 64 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1879 | 88.15% | 71.73% | 55.55% | 39.20% | 25.49% | 13.52% |
