The final Grand Slam of the year, the US Open, is starting shortly, and for the next 2 weeks, I will publish round-by-round updates. After the jump, you will find my pre-tournament predictions for the upcoming tournament.
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- Iga Swiatek is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 28.98% chance of winning the whole thing, with Aryna Sabalenka next at 13.35%. The 3rd most likely is Jessica Pegula with 6.56% and Coco Gauff 4th with 5.67%
- Belinda Bencic has the easiest overall draw, as she is 0.82 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. Petra Kvitova has the toughest overall draw, as she is 1.28 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- Camila Giorgi has the toughest 1st round match, as she's 38.88 percentage points less likely to win than a player of her rank is expected to win. Katie Volynets got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's 27.32 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than her ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iga Swiatek | 1970 | 92.45% | 84.69% | 77.99% | 65.59% | 50.67% | 39.48% | 28.98% |
| 2 | Rebecca Peterson | 1535 | 7.55% | 3.60% | 1.77% | 0.58% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 3 | Clervie Ngounoue | 1500 | 38.29% | 3.52% | 1.55% | 0.44% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Daria Saville | 1583 | 61.71% | 8.19% | 4.58% | 1.77% | 0.52% | 0.15% | 0.04% |
| 5 | Lauren Davis | 1529 | 54.20% | 24.78% | 3.31% | 1.06% | 0.25% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 6 | Danka Kovinic | 1500 | 45.80% | 19.06% | 2.25% | 0.64% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Kaja Juvan | 1528 | 42.31% | 21.90% | 2.91% | 0.93% | 0.22% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 8 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto | 1582 | 57.69% | 34.26% | 5.65% | 2.17% | 0.64% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 9 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1730 | 66.81% | 48.92% | 30.31% | 9.67% | 4.63% | 2.23% | 0.95% |
| 10 | Jasmine Paolini | 1609 | 33.19% | 19.13% | 8.83% | 1.90% | 0.61% | 0.20% | 0.06% |
| 11 | Alize Cornet | 1569 | 54.44% | 18.32% | 7.52% | 1.41% | 0.39% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 12 | Elina Avanesyan | 1538 | 45.56% | 13.63% | 5.06% | 0.84% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 13 | Julia Grabher | 1498 | 50.03% | 13.52% | 4.07% | 0.58% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 14 | Wang Xiyu | 1498 | 49.97% | 13.50% | 4.06% | 0.58% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Bernada Pera | 1545 | 26.24% | 14.91% | 5.35% | 0.92% | 0.23% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 16 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1725 | 73.76% | 58.07% | 34.80% | 10.93% | 5.16% | 2.45% | 1.03% |
| 17 | Petra Kvitova | 1783 | 85.18% | 58.74% | 42.47% | 23.69% | 9.35% | 5.19% | 2.59% |
| 18 | Cristina Bucsa | 1479 | 14.82% | 4.39% | 1.40% | 0.29% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Tatiana Prozorova | 1496 | 25.31% | 5.43% | 1.85% | 0.41% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 20 | Caroline Wozniacki | 1684 | 74.69% | 31.44% | 18.81% | 8.07% | 2.34% | 0.98% | 0.36% |
| 21 | Kimberly Birrell | 1507 | 29.11% | 10.99% | 2.58% | 0.59% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 22 | Jennifer Brady | 1662 | 70.89% | 42.27% | 17.50% | 7.03% | 1.88% | 0.74% | 0.25% |
| 23 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1601 | 51.87% | 24.69% | 8.31% | 2.72% | 0.58% | 0.18% | 0.05% |
| 24 | Magda Linette | 1588 | 48.13% | 22.05% | 7.08% | 2.21% | 0.45% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 25 | Elise Mertens | 1631 | 69.61% | 32.81% | 11.48% | 4.70% | 1.13% | 0.40% | 0.12% |
| 26 | Mirjam Bjorklund | 1487 | 30.39% | 8.76% | 1.81% | 0.44% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Danielle Collins | 1697 | 73.56% | 47.68% | 20.45% | 10.19% | 3.08% | 1.35% | 0.52% |
| 28 | Linda Fruhvirtova | 1520 | 26.44% | 10.75% | 2.53% | 0.69% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 29 | Olivia Gadecki | 1478 | 36.62% | 5.87% | 1.71% | 0.40% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 30 | Mirra Andreeva | 1574 | 63.38% | 15.21% | 6.25% | 2.10% | 0.41% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 31 | Laura Siegemund | 1562 | 17.27% | 9.21% | 3.64% | 1.17% | 0.22% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 32 | Coco Gauff | 1834 | 82.73% | 69.71% | 52.12% | 35.29% | 16.03% | 10.00% | 5.67% |
| 33 | Elena Rybakina | 1828 | 76.73% | 58.42% | 44.87% | 30.18% | 19.89% | 9.06% | 5.06% |
| 34 | Marta Kostyuk | 1621 | 23.27% | 11.78% | 5.96% | 2.42% | 0.93% | 0.21% | 0.06% |
| 35 | Panna Udvardy | 1416 | 19.69% | 2.37% | 0.58% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 36 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1661 | 80.31% | 27.43% | 15.40% | 7.04% | 3.07% | 0.81% | 0.27% |
| 37 | Anna Kalinskaya | 1638 | 57.65% | 32.02% | 11.38% | 4.87% | 1.98% | 0.48% | 0.15% |
| 38 | Katerina Siniakova | 1584 | 42.35% | 20.42% | 5.98% | 2.16% | 0.73% | 0.14% | 0.04% |
| 39 | Kayla Day | 1455 | 25.24% | 7.19% | 1.23% | 0.27% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 40 | Sorana Cirstea | 1643 | 74.76% | 40.37% | 14.60% | 6.35% | 2.63% | 0.65% | 0.20% |
| 41 | Victoria Azarenka | 1680 | 74.33% | 51.58% | 24.25% | 10.83% | 5.00% | 1.41% | 0.51% |
| 42 | Fiona Ferro | 1495 | 25.67% | 11.28% | 2.91% | 0.67% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Zhu Lin | 1552 | 54.52% | 21.23% | 6.73% | 1.95% | 0.58% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 44 | Mayar Sherif | 1520 | 45.48% | 15.90% | 4.51% | 1.15% | 0.31% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 45 | Yuriko Miyazaki | 1483 | 42.35% | 8.72% | 2.93% | 0.64% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 46 | Margarita Betova | 1536 | 57.65% | 14.70% | 5.95% | 1.62% | 0.46% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 47 | Kamilla Rakhimova | 1471 | 14.48% | 6.36% | 2.05% | 0.43% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 48 | Belinda Bencic | 1779 | 85.52% | 70.22% | 50.66% | 29.29% | 17.48% | 6.91% | 3.40% |
| 49 | Karolina Muchova | 1783 | 89.69% | 74.44% | 51.95% | 34.61% | 19.50% | 7.79% | 3.87% |
| 50 | Storm Hunter | 1407 | 10.31% | 3.71% | 0.82% | 0.17% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Magdalena Frech | 1502 | 48.69% | 10.44% | 3.42% | 1.05% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 52 | Emma Navarro | 1512 | 51.31% | 11.41% | 3.87% | 1.23% | 0.28% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 53 | Varvara Gracheva | 1564 | 58.39% | 20.43% | 6.49% | 2.46% | 0.70% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 54 | Taylor Townsend | 1505 | 41.61% | 11.56% | 2.97% | 0.92% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 55 | Sloane Stephens | 1634 | 40.90% | 25.87% | 10.32% | 4.87% | 1.79% | 0.43% | 0.13% |
| 56 | Beatriz Haddad Maia | 1698 | 59.10% | 42.13% | 20.16% | 11.24% | 5.06% | 1.53% | 0.59% |
| 57 | Anhelina Kalinina | 1584 | 36.72% | 23.61% | 9.79% | 3.34% | 1.03% | 0.20% | 0.05% |
| 58 | Sara Sorribes Tormo | 1679 | 63.28% | 47.81% | 25.65% | 11.84% | 5.03% | 1.41% | 0.51% |
| 59 | Katie Volynets | 1431 | 38.66% | 8.91% | 2.15% | 0.40% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 60 | Wang Xinyu | 1511 | 61.34% | 19.67% | 6.43% | 1.67% | 0.39% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 61 | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | 1471 | 43.66% | 10.27% | 3.38% | 0.75% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Kateryna Baindl | 1515 | 56.34% | 15.82% | 6.08% | 1.61% | 0.38% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 63 | Rebeka Masarova | 1517 | 22.06% | 11.68% | 4.51% | 1.20% | 0.28% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 64 | Maria Sakkari | 1736 | 77.94% | 62.22% | 42.01% | 22.63% | 11.34% | 3.90% | 1.69% |
| 65 | Caroline Garcia | 1665 | 77.33% | 50.13% | 29.24% | 11.78% | 4.75% | 1.69% | 0.48% |
| 66 | Wang Yafan | 1452 | 22.67% | 7.96% | 2.40% | 0.42% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 67 | Katie Boulter | 1570 | 53.51% | 23.22% | 10.52% | 3.02% | 0.87% | 0.22% | 0.04% |
| 68 | Diane Parry | 1546 | 46.49% | 18.68% | 7.84% | 2.05% | 0.53% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 69 | Peyton Stearns | 1550 | 69.79% | 26.32% | 11.21% | 2.98% | 0.79% | 0.18% | 0.03% |
| 70 | Viktoriya Tomova | 1405 | 30.21% | 6.33% | 1.57% | 0.22% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 71 | Clara Tauson | 1580 | 36.81% | 22.07% | 10.28% | 3.07% | 0.91% | 0.24% | 0.05% |
| 72 | Anastasia Potapova | 1674 | 63.19% | 45.29% | 26.95% | 11.16% | 4.62% | 1.70% | 0.49% |
| 73 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1741 | 66.66% | 44.16% | 22.14% | 14.73% | 7.42% | 3.36% | 1.24% |
| 74 | Leylah Fernandez | 1621 | 33.34% | 16.79% | 5.89% | 2.97% | 1.03% | 0.31% | 0.07% |
| 75 | Elsa Jacquemot | 1463 | 23.94% | 4.98% | 0.97% | 0.29% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 76 | Lesia Tsurenko | 1664 | 76.06% | 34.08% | 13.74% | 7.75% | 3.11% | 1.10% | 0.31% |
| 77 | Martina Trevisan | 1519 | 39.25% | 8.16% | 2.35% | 0.86% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 78 | Yulia Putintseva | 1595 | 60.75% | 16.94% | 6.46% | 3.02% | 0.95% | 0.26% | 0.06% |
| 79 | Han Na-Lae | 1452 | 11.34% | 3.90% | 0.85% | 0.24% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 80 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1809 | 88.66% | 71.00% | 47.60% | 35.44% | 21.09% | 11.45% | 5.19% |
| 81 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1720 | 74.67% | 50.42% | 30.13% | 14.03% | 7.19% | 3.06% | 1.05% |
| 82 | Claire Liu | 1532 | 25.33% | 10.79% | 3.84% | 0.94% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 83 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1633 | 75.01% | 33.29% | 16.11% | 5.72% | 2.27% | 0.72% | 0.18% |
| 84 | Tamara Korpatsch | 1442 | 24.99% | 5.49% | 1.40% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 85 | Yanina Wickmayer | 1521 | 52.38% | 15.50% | 5.00% | 1.17% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 86 | Vera Zvonareva | 1505 | 47.62% | 13.23% | 4.01% | 0.88% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 87 | Arantxa Rus | 1502 | 21.33% | 10.30% | 3.09% | 0.67% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 88 | Madison Keys | 1728 | 78.67% | 60.97% | 36.41% | 17.36% | 9.10% | 3.97% | 1.40% |
| 89 | Elina Svitolina | 1716 | 78.31% | 50.91% | 22.99% | 12.80% | 6.49% | 2.73% | 0.92% |
| 90 | Anna-Lena Friedsam | 1493 | 21.69% | 7.61% | 1.63% | 0.44% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | 1648 | 71.13% | 33.47% | 12.40% | 5.76% | 2.40% | 0.81% | 0.21% |
| 92 | Fiona Crawley | 1492 | 28.87% | 8.00% | 1.70% | 0.46% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 93 | Patricia Maria Tig | 1474 | 49.01% | 7.37% | 1.95% | 0.49% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 94 | Rebecca Marino | 1480 | 50.99% | 7.91% | 2.15% | 0.56% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 95 | Camila Giorgi | 1642 | 24.50% | 17.66% | 8.38% | 3.82% | 1.56% | 0.51% | 0.13% |
| 96 | Jessica Pegula | 1837 | 75.50% | 67.07% | 48.80% | 34.69% | 23.08% | 13.39% | 6.56% |
| 97 | Ons Jabeur | 1818 | 78.84% | 63.34% | 47.50% | 33.91% | 18.97% | 11.32% | 5.26% |
| 98 | Camila Osorio | 1590 | 21.16% | 11.23% | 5.07% | 2.13% | 0.60% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 99 | Linda Noskova | 1609 | 68.30% | 20.08% | 9.62% | 4.29% | 1.30% | 0.42% | 0.09% |
| 100 | Madison Brengle | 1476 | 31.70% | 5.36% | 1.62% | 0.46% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 101 | Tatjana Maria | 1579 | 40.28% | 18.68% | 5.76% | 2.35% | 0.64% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 102 | Petra Martic | 1648 | 59.72% | 33.26% | 12.93% | 6.44% | 2.23% | 0.82% | 0.22% |
| 103 | Ashlyn Krueger | 1460 | 24.91% | 7.13% | 1.38% | 0.37% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 104 | Marie Bouzkova | 1652 | 75.09% | 40.93% | 16.12% | 8.12% | 2.85% | 1.07% | 0.28% |
| 105 | Zheng Qinwen | 1674 | 71.24% | 49.54% | 26.73% | 11.97% | 4.52% | 1.82% | 0.53% |
| 106 | Nadia Podoroska | 1517 | 28.76% | 13.81% | 4.72% | 1.23% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 107 | Barbora Strycova | 1511 | 44.91% | 15.34% | 5.14% | 1.31% | 0.27% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 108 | Kaia Kanepi | 1547 | 55.09% | 21.31% | 8.04% | 2.34% | 0.56% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| 109 | Robin Montgomery | 1466 | 45.80% | 10.81% | 3.49% | 0.73% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 110 | Eva Lys | 1495 | 54.20% | 14.40% | 5.17% | 1.23% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 111 | Lucia Bronzetti | 1509 | 21.86% | 11.77% | 4.43% | 1.11% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 112 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1730 | 78.14% | 63.01% | 42.29% | 22.02% | 9.83% | 4.69% | 1.66% |
| 113 | Daria Kasatkina | 1728 | 77.51% | 53.77% | 35.62% | 15.26% | 7.96% | 3.78% | 1.33% |
| 114 | Alycia Parks | 1513 | 22.49% | 8.98% | 3.46% | 0.72% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 115 | Ana Bogdan | 1544 | 40.32% | 12.98% | 5.51% | 1.29% | 0.37% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 116 | Sofia Kenin | 1612 | 59.68% | 24.27% | 12.47% | 3.73% | 1.38% | 0.45% | 0.10% |
| 117 | Greet Minnen | 1441 | 39.99% | 10.37% | 2.43% | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 118 | Venus Williams | 1511 | 60.01% | 20.28% | 6.30% | 1.30% | 0.33% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 119 | Sachia Vickery | 1454 | 21.26% | 9.77% | 2.42% | 0.40% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 120 | Donna Vekic | 1682 | 78.74% | 59.59% | 31.79% | 11.91% | 5.48% | 2.26% | 0.68% |
| 121 | Karolina Pliskova | 1649 | 71.89% | 48.82% | 14.77% | 7.24% | 3.02% | 1.12% | 0.29% |
| 122 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse | 1485 | 28.11% | 12.82% | 2.10% | 0.60% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Caroline Dolehide | 1460 | 37.34% | 11.65% | 1.71% | 0.44% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 124 | Clara Burel | 1550 | 62.66% | 26.72% | 5.66% | 2.04% | 0.60% | 0.15% | 0.03% |
| 125 | Anna Blinkova | 1563 | 56.32% | 10.34% | 4.94% | 1.86% | 0.58% | 0.16% | 0.03% |
| 126 | Jodie Burrage | 1519 | 43.68% | 6.67% | 2.78% | 0.90% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 127 | Maryna Zanevska | 1467 | 8.63% | 3.38% | 1.18% | 0.31% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 128 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1877 | 91.37% | 79.61% | 66.85% | 51.65% | 36.65% | 24.64% | 13.35% |
