Thursday, 8 March 2018

2018 Indian Wells Predictions - Men's

The Indian Wells tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Men's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table for percentages for all 96 players competing and how they will do.

Stock tournament image, ©printyourbrackets.com


But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
  • Roger Federer is the favourite to win the title, he has a 42.94% chance of winning the title. Novak Djokovic is 2nd favourite with 20.12%, Grigor Dimitrov is 3rd with 4.91% and Juan Martin del Potro 4th with 4.78%.
  • Bradley Klahn has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have him as the 70th most likely winner, while he is only the 82nd highest ranked player here.
  • On the other hand, Jan-Lennard Struff, Leonardo Mayer and Cameron Norrie have tough draws. They are the 65th, 58th and 83rd most likely winners, but they are the 52nd, 45th and 70th highest ranked players respectively.
  • The toughest 1st round draw went to Guido Pella, as he's the 85th most likely player to progress to round 2, but he's ranked 50th of the competitors. 
  • Bradley Klahn also got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's the 46th most likely player to advance to round 2, while he's the 82nd highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.





# Name ELO R1 % R2 % R3 % R4 % R5 % R6 % R7 %
1 Roger Federer 2006 100.00% 92.58% 86.87% 78.97% 69.08% 57.63% 42.94%
2 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
3 Ryan Harrison 1590 58.41% 4.88% 2.85% 1.38% 0.56% 0.19% 0.05%
4 Federico Delbonis 1531 41.59% 2.54% 1.27% 0.51% 0.17% 0.04% 0.01%
5 Benoit Paire 1561 61.04% 33.41% 3.42% 1.52% 0.56% 0.17% 0.04%
6 Mitchell Krueger 1483 38.96% 16.97% 1.21% 0.41% 0.11% 0.02% 0.00%
7 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Filip Krajinovic 1528 100.00% 49.62% 4.38% 1.75% 0.57% 0.15% 0.03%
9 Adrian Mannarino 1629 100.00% 72.14% 39.55% 6.72% 3.07% 1.18% 0.34%
10 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
11 Marius Copil 1482 56.16% 16.86% 5.83% 0.55% 0.15% 0.03% 0.01%
12 Peter Polansky 1439 43.84% 11.00% 3.22% 0.25% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
13 Julien Bennetau 1554 57.29% 22.55% 10.33% 1.31% 0.47% 0.14% 0.03%
14 Jeremy Chardy 1503 42.71% 13.93% 5.43% 0.56% 0.17% 0.04% 0.01%
15 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
16 Adrian Mannarino 1629 100.00% 63.51% 35.64% 6.05% 2.77% 1.06% 0.31%
17 Fabio Fognini 1695 100.00% 73.54% 46.49% 26.62% 6.58% 3.11% 1.14%
18 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
19 Ivo Karlovic 1554 67.76% 20.84% 9.22% 3.55% 0.53% 0.15% 0.03%
20 Maximilian Marterer 1425 32.24% 5.63% 1.59% 0.38% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00%
21 Lukas Lacko 1434 44.70% 10.37% 2.41% 0.59% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
22 Dusan Lajovic 1471 55.30% 15.04% 4.07% 1.16% 0.12% 0.03% 0.00%
23 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
24 Chung Hyeon 1642 100.00% 74.59% 36.23% 18.18% 3.74% 1.50% 0.46%
25 Pablo Cuevas 1560 100.00% 55.05% 19.68% 7.58% 1.15% 0.34% 0.08%
26 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
27 Denis Shapovalov 1557 62.27% 30.86% 10.92% 4.16% 0.62% 0.18% 0.04%
28 Ricardas Berankis 1470 37.73% 14.09% 3.62% 1.00% 0.10% 0.02% 0.00%
29 Radu Albot 1413 39.92% 6.03% 1.92% 0.42% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00%
30 Stefanos Tsitsipas 1484 60.08% 12.68% 5.22% 1.52% 0.17% 0.04% 0.01%
31 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
32 Dominic Thiem 1713 100.00% 81.29% 58.65% 34.83% 9.15% 4.55% 1.76%
33 Grigor Dimitrov 1795 100.00% 77.05% 59.67% 40.82% 26.91% 9.97% 4.91%
34 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
35 Fernando Verdasco 1610 59.52% 15.26% 8.34% 3.71% 1.52% 0.30% 0.08%
36 Guido Pella 1543 40.48% 7.69% 3.48% 1.25% 0.41% 0.06% 0.01%
37 Taylor Fritz 1530 58.41% 22.36% 5.22% 1.79% 0.55% 0.08% 0.02%
38 Reilly Opelka 1471 41.59% 12.74% 2.31% 0.63% 0.16% 0.02% 0.00%
39 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
40 Andrey Rublev 1613 100.00% 64.90% 20.97% 9.40% 3.90% 0.79% 0.21%
41 Albert Ramos Vinolas 1549 100.00% 50.29% 16.21% 4.80% 1.60% 0.25% 0.05%
42 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
43 Borna Coric 1568 57.01% 30.06% 10.37% 3.29% 1.17% 0.20% 0.05%
44 Donald Young 1519 42.99% 19.65% 5.66% 1.49% 0.44% 0.06% 0.01%
45 Jared Donaldson 1544 56.44% 14.28% 7.04% 2.05% 0.67% 0.10% 0.02%
46 Evan King 1499 43.56% 9.03% 3.87% 0.94% 0.26% 0.03% 0.01%
47 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
48 Roberto Bautista Agut 1732 100.00% 76.69% 56.84% 29.83% 17.22% 5.27% 2.17%
49 Pablo Carreno Busta 1594 100.00% 58.75% 20.63% 8.83% 3.06% 0.57% 0.15%
50 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
51 Horacio Zeballos 1515 45.41% 17.63% 4.57% 1.49% 0.38% 0.05% 0.01%
52 Yuichi Sugita 1547 54.59% 23.63% 6.96% 2.55% 0.74% 0.12% 0.02%
53 Steve Johnson 1577 48.71% 13.08% 6.69% 2.71% 0.88% 0.16% 0.04%
54 Daniil Medvedev 1586 51.29% 14.31% 7.50% 3.13% 1.05% 0.19% 0.05%
55 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
56 Nick Kyrgios 1751 100.00% 72.61% 53.65% 34.45% 18.98% 6.16% 2.68%
57 Damir Dzumhur 1616 100.00% 66.47% 27.98% 11.96% 4.46% 0.91% 0.25%
58 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
59 Nicolas Kicker 1468 42.85% 12.81% 3.09% 0.78% 0.16% 0.02% 0.00%
60 Jiri Vesely 1518 57.15% 20.72% 6.13% 1.87% 0.49% 0.07% 0.01%
61 Karen Khachanov 1629 74.91% 29.29% 16.76% 7.45% 2.90% 0.62% 0.18%
62 Evgeny Donskoy 1439 25.09% 4.44% 1.40% 0.31% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
63 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
64 Kevin Anderson 1706 100.00% 66.27% 44.63% 24.47% 12.01% 3.38% 1.28%
65 Jack Sock 1647 100.00% 76.89% 47.23% 24.42% 10.58% 2.94% 0.70%
66 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
67 Thomas Fabbiano 1401 41.31% 8.07% 2.30% 0.50% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
68 Bradley Klahn 1462 58.69% 15.05% 5.42% 1.51% 0.32% 0.04% 0.00%
69 Frances Tiafoe 1516 58.27% 22.15% 8.55% 2.92% 0.79% 0.13% 0.02%
70 Ernesto Escobedo 1458 41.73% 12.73% 4.01% 1.10% 0.23% 0.03% 0.00%
71 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
72 Feliciano Lopez 1601 100.00% 65.12% 32.49% 14.74% 5.48% 1.27% 0.25%
73 Sam Querrey 1617 100.00% 66.55% 30.14% 15.84% 6.22% 1.54% 0.33%
74 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
75 Mikhail Kukushkin 1458 40.75% 11.65% 3.00% 0.94% 0.20% 0.02% 0.00%
76 Mischa Zverev 1523 59.25% 21.80% 7.22% 2.86% 0.79% 0.13% 0.02%
77 Yuki Bhambri 1494 44.84% 10.63% 4.08% 1.46% 0.36% 0.05% 0.01%
78 Nicolas Mahut 1530 55.16% 15.26% 6.60% 2.68% 0.76% 0.13% 0.02%
79 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
80 Lucas Pouille 1697 100.00% 74.11% 48.95% 31.03% 15.58% 5.19% 1.48%
81 Diego Schwartzman 1677 100.00% 66.59% 38.83% 17.31% 9.76% 3.03% 0.81%
82 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
83 Marcos Baghdatis 1579 57.57% 20.87% 9.30% 2.97% 1.27% 0.27% 0.05%
84 Yoshihito Nishioka 1526 42.43% 12.53% 4.68% 1.22% 0.44% 0.07% 0.01%
85 Denis Istomin 1515 39.37% 12.45% 4.16% 1.04% 0.36% 0.06% 0.01%
86 Peter Gojowczyk 1590 60.63% 25.22% 10.92% 3.64% 1.61% 0.36% 0.07%
87 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
88 Kyle Edmund 1649 100.00% 62.34% 32.12% 13.11% 6.88% 1.92% 0.46%
89 Milos Raonic 1700 100.00% 79.40% 37.43% 22.06% 13.13% 4.42% 1.28%
90 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
91 Vasek Pospisil 1452 46.41% 8.98% 1.77% 0.46% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00%
92 Felix Auger-Aliassime 1477 53.59% 11.63% 2.53% 0.73% 0.22% 0.03% 0.00%
93 Mikhail Youzhny 1438 46.12% 6.25% 1.49% 0.37% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00%
94 Joao Sousa 1465 53.88% 8.34% 2.22% 0.61% 0.17% 0.02% 0.00%
95 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
96 Alexander Zverev 1760 100.00% 85.42% 54.57% 36.48% 24.54% 10.05% 3.54%
97 Juan Martin del Potro 1811 100.00% 82.78% 64.60% 26.16% 17.29% 11.68% 4.78%
98 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
99 Jan-Lennard Struff 1533 48.56% 8.16% 3.50% 0.48% 0.14% 0.04% 0.01%
100 Alex De Minaur 1543 51.44% 9.06% 4.01% 0.57% 0.18% 0.06% 0.01%
101 Nikoloz Basilashvili 1473 46.12% 13.46% 2.34% 0.24% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
102 Tennys Sandgren 1500 53.88% 17.51% 3.42% 0.40% 0.11% 0.03% 0.00%
103 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
104 David Ferrer 1627 100.00% 69.03% 22.14% 4.56% 1.90% 0.81% 0.18%
105 Kei Nishikori 1742 100.00% 78.87% 22.05% 11.24% 6.43% 3.77% 1.25%
106 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
107 Leonardo Mayer 1549 68.13% 16.88% 2.15% 0.59% 0.19% 0.06% 0.01%
108 Victor Estrella Burgos 1417 31.87% 4.25% 0.30% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
109 Taro Daniel 1404 38.14% 1.69% 0.29% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
110 Cameron Norrie 1488 61.86% 4.32% 1.05% 0.23% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
111 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
112 Novak Djokovic 1938 100.00% 94.00% 74.16% 55.43% 44.22% 35.80% 20.12%
113 John Isner 1626 100.00% 45.67% 24.67% 10.02% 2.24% 0.95% 0.21%
114 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
115 Gael Monfils 1703 80.02% 48.73% 31.44% 15.95% 4.82% 2.57% 0.75%
116 Matthew Ebden 1462 19.98% 5.60% 1.77% 0.39% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
117 Pierre-Hugues Herbert 1491 38.01% 11.92% 3.40% 0.85% 0.10% 0.03% 0.00%
118 Gilles Simon 1576 61.99% 26.48% 10.35% 3.56% 0.64% 0.23% 0.04%
119 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
120 Gilles Muller 1627 100.00% 61.60% 28.37% 11.56% 2.60% 1.11% 0.24%
121 Philipp Kohlschreiber 1621 100.00% 71.79% 25.93% 12.34% 2.70% 1.13% 0.24%
122 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
123 Tim Smyczek 1416 40.20% 9.45% 1.50% 0.34% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00%
124 Laslo Djere 1485 59.80% 18.76% 4.04% 1.20% 0.14% 0.04% 0.00%
125 Victor Troicki 1547 55.73% 11.98% 5.49% 2.06% 0.33% 0.11% 0.02%
126 Marton Fucsovics 1507 44.27% 7.91% 3.20% 1.03% 0.14% 0.04% 0.01%
127 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
128 Marin Cilic 1772 100.00% 80.11% 59.84% 40.69% 15.63% 9.78% 3.57%

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