The Miami tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Men's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table for percentages for all 96 players competing and how they will do.
 |
| Stock tournament image, ©printyourbrackets.com |
But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Roger Federer is the favourite to win the title, he has a 43.53% chance of winning the title. Novak Djokovic is 2nd favourite with 17.84%, Juan Martin del Potro is 3rd with 6.61% and Marin Cilic 4th with 3.84%.
- Ricardas Berankis has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have him as the 67th most likely winner, while he is only the 82nd highest ranked player here.
- On the other hand, Yuichi Sugia and Robin Haase have tough draws. They are the 69th and 62nd most likely winners, but they are the 49th and 42nd highest ranked players respectively.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Jared Donaldson, as he's the 80th most likely player to progress to round 2, but he's ranked 46th of the competitors.
- Ricardas Berankis also got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's the 45th most likely player to advance to round 2, while he's the 82nd highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Roger Federer |
1998 |
100.00% |
95.23% |
87.04% |
79.36% |
68.58% |
58.89% |
43.53% |
| 2 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 3 |
Calvin Hemery |
1472 |
48.42% |
2.24% |
0.79% |
0.27% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 4 |
Thanasi Kokkinakis |
1483 |
51.58% |
2.53% |
0.93% |
0.33% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 5 |
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez |
1461 |
44.13% |
12.57% |
0.81% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 6 |
Tennys Sandgren |
1502 |
55.87% |
18.73% |
1.45% |
0.55% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 7 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 8 |
Fernando Verdasco |
1621 |
100.00% |
68.71% |
8.98% |
4.91% |
2.13% |
0.91% |
0.25% |
| 9 |
Adrian Mannarino |
1621 |
100.00% |
63.30% |
36.19% |
5.84% |
2.54% |
1.08% |
0.30% |
| 10 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 11 |
Steve Johnson |
1567 |
71.05% |
30.05% |
14.90% |
1.93% |
0.70% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
| 12 |
Victor Estrella Burgos |
1411 |
28.95% |
6.65% |
1.93% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 13 |
Denis Istomin |
1515 |
52.16% |
19.47% |
7.67% |
0.80% |
0.24% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 14 |
Miomir Kecmanovic |
1500 |
47.84% |
16.90% |
6.32% |
0.62% |
0.17% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 15 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 16 |
Pablo Carreno Busta |
1605 |
100.00% |
63.63% |
33.00% |
5.00% |
2.06% |
0.83% |
0.21% |
| 17 |
Tomas Berdych |
1720 |
100.00% |
74.34% |
49.86% |
29.80% |
8.10% |
4.55% |
1.78% |
| 18 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 19 |
Alex De Minaur |
1549 |
54.45% |
14.81% |
6.51% |
2.40% |
0.35% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 20 |
Yoshihito Nishioka |
1518 |
45.55% |
10.85% |
4.31% |
1.43% |
0.18% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 21 |
Nicolas Kicker |
1489 |
47.84% |
14.42% |
3.85% |
1.14% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 22 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1504 |
52.16% |
16.69% |
4.72% |
1.48% |
0.18% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 23 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 24 |
Kyle Edmund |
1635 |
100.00% |
68.89% |
30.75% |
14.85% |
3.01% |
1.34% |
0.39% |
| 25 |
Karen Khachanov |
1614 |
100.00% |
70.67% |
30.50% |
13.50% |
2.53% |
1.05% |
0.28% |
| 26 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 27 |
Marius Copil |
1471 |
53.02% |
16.18% |
4.26% |
1.13% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 28 |
Mikhail Kukushkin |
1450 |
46.98% |
13.16% |
3.19% |
0.78% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 29 |
Thomas Fabbiano |
1409 |
42.15% |
6.40% |
1.86% |
0.38% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 30 |
Nikoloz Basilashvili |
1464 |
57.85% |
11.40% |
4.07% |
1.05% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 31 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 32 |
Kevin Anderson |
1708 |
100.00% |
82.20% |
56.13% |
32.05% |
8.37% |
4.57% |
1.71% |
| 33 |
Alexander Zverev |
1743 |
100.00% |
74.20% |
51.50% |
28.95% |
19.84% |
6.36% |
2.67% |
| 34 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 35 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1488 |
35.33% |
6.62% |
2.31% |
0.56% |
0.19% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 36 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1593 |
64.67% |
19.18% |
9.45% |
3.41% |
1.64% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
| 37 |
Evgeny Donskoy |
1450 |
33.13% |
8.71% |
1.78% |
0.37% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 38 |
Aljaz Bedene |
1572 |
66.87% |
28.00% |
9.32% |
3.12% |
1.41% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
| 39 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 40 |
David Ferrer |
1629 |
100.00% |
63.29% |
25.64% |
10.44% |
5.56% |
1.20% |
0.34% |
| 41 |
Nick Kyrgios |
1751 |
100.00% |
80.95% |
53.04% |
32.09% |
22.30% |
7.34% |
3.15% |
| 42 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 43 |
Dusan Lajovic |
1474 |
43.70% |
7.37% |
2.18% |
0.55% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 44 |
Horacio Zeballos |
1518 |
56.30% |
11.67% |
4.05% |
1.21% |
0.46% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 45 |
Nicola Kuhn |
1492 |
51.87% |
13.13% |
3.17% |
0.86% |
0.29% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 46 |
Darian King |
1479 |
48.13% |
11.51% |
2.64% |
0.68% |
0.22% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 47 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 48 |
Fabio Fognini |
1680 |
100.00% |
75.36% |
34.92% |
17.78% |
10.73% |
2.79% |
0.95% |
| 49 |
Sam Querrey |
1634 |
100.00% |
75.41% |
43.63% |
23.58% |
9.57% |
2.11% |
0.61% |
| 50 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 51 |
Radu Albot |
1405 |
41.87% |
8.84% |
2.39% |
0.58% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 52 |
Ricardas Berankis |
1462 |
58.13% |
15.75% |
5.34% |
1.64% |
0.34% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 53 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1555 |
52.73% |
22.82% |
10.37% |
4.45% |
1.36% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
| 54 |
Victor Troicki |
1536 |
47.27% |
19.20% |
8.23% |
3.32% |
0.94% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 55 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 56 |
Damir Dzumhur |
1602 |
100.00% |
57.98% |
30.04% |
14.88% |
5.42% |
1.06% |
0.27% |
| 57 |
Borna Coric |
1620 |
100.00% |
61.00% |
31.45% |
16.87% |
6.53% |
1.37% |
0.37% |
| 58 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 59 |
Leonardo Mayer |
1565 |
57.85% |
24.38% |
10.68% |
4.90% |
1.56% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
| 60 |
Donald Young |
1510 |
42.15% |
14.62% |
5.31% |
2.04% |
0.52% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 61 |
Yuki Bhambri |
1513 |
40.34% |
13.11% |
5.13% |
1.99% |
0.52% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 62 |
Mirza Basic |
1581 |
59.66% |
24.81% |
12.07% |
5.81% |
1.96% |
0.35% |
0.08% |
| 63 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 64 |
Jack Sock |
1640 |
100.00% |
62.08% |
35.36% |
19.95% |
8.26% |
1.86% |
0.55% |
| 65 |
Juan Martin del Potro |
1851 |
100.00% |
85.33% |
59.81% |
29.13% |
19.90% |
14.00% |
6.61% |
| 66 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 67 |
Yuichi Sugita |
1536 |
47.56% |
6.67% |
1.96% |
0.34% |
0.09% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 68 |
Robin Haase |
1553 |
52.44% |
8.00% |
2.51% |
0.47% |
0.14% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 69 |
Peter Gojowczyk |
1577 |
56.44% |
15.74% |
3.56% |
0.73% |
0.23% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 70 |
John Millman |
1532 |
43.56% |
10.01% |
1.88% |
0.32% |
0.09% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 71 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 72 |
Kei Nishikori |
1742 |
100.00% |
74.24% |
30.29% |
10.83% |
5.85% |
3.31% |
1.15% |
| 73 |
Filip Krajinovic |
1536 |
100.00% |
57.74% |
8.03% |
1.62% |
0.44% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
| 74 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 75 |
Bjorn Fratangelo |
1470 |
46.84% |
19.02% |
1.97% |
0.30% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 76 |
Liam Broady |
1492 |
53.16% |
23.23% |
2.66% |
0.44% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 77 |
Mischa Zverev |
1523 |
46.27% |
4.29% |
2.21% |
0.42% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 78 |
Benoit Paire |
1549 |
53.73% |
5.71% |
3.14% |
0.67% |
0.19% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 79 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 80 |
Novak Djokovic |
1919 |
100.00% |
90.00% |
81.99% |
54.73% |
41.56% |
32.28% |
17.84% |
| 81 |
Diego Schwartzman |
1664 |
100.00% |
71.13% |
34.67% |
14.81% |
3.77% |
1.72% |
0.46% |
| 82 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 83 |
Cameron Norrie |
1476 |
42.43% |
10.74% |
2.76% |
0.59% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 84 |
Nicolas Jarry |
1529 |
57.57% |
18.13% |
5.71% |
1.51% |
0.22% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 85 |
Mikael Ymer |
1450 |
39.65% |
6.98% |
1.96% |
0.37% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 86 |
Jan-Lennard Struff |
1523 |
60.35% |
14.82% |
5.46% |
1.41% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 87 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 88 |
Milos Raonic |
1718 |
100.00% |
78.20% |
49.43% |
24.70% |
7.73% |
4.11% |
1.33% |
| 89 |
Richard Gasquet |
1667 |
100.00% |
71.92% |
29.02% |
14.49% |
3.73% |
1.72% |
0.47% |
| 90 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 91 |
Jeremy Chardy |
1541 |
68.51% |
22.35% |
5.79% |
1.93% |
0.29% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 92 |
Rogerio Dutra Silva |
1406 |
31.49% |
5.73% |
0.84% |
0.16% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 93 |
Marton Fucsovics |
1514 |
61.04% |
10.85% |
3.81% |
1.14% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 94 |
Maximilian Marterer |
1436 |
38.96% |
4.73% |
1.23% |
0.27% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 95 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 96 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1780 |
100.00% |
84.42% |
59.29% |
38.62% |
15.01% |
9.24% |
3.60% |
| 97 |
David Goffin |
1747 |
100.00% |
75.99% |
53.56% |
32.12% |
19.65% |
7.62% |
2.69% |
| 98 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 99 |
Ryan Harrison |
1578 |
62.94% |
17.27% |
8.21% |
3.04% |
1.18% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
| 100 |
Joao Sousa |
1486 |
37.06% |
6.75% |
2.35% |
0.62% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 101 |
Jared Donaldson |
1548 |
42.57% |
17.65% |
5.33% |
1.77% |
0.62% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 102 |
Marcos Baghdatis |
1600 |
57.43% |
28.05% |
10.22% |
4.08% |
1.70% |
0.38% |
0.08% |
| 103 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 104 |
Feliciano Lopez |
1608 |
100.00% |
54.30% |
20.33% |
8.33% |
3.56% |
0.82% |
0.18% |
| 105 |
Chung Hyeon |
1666 |
100.00% |
68.68% |
33.09% |
16.20% |
8.17% |
2.38% |
0.64% |
| 106 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 107 |
Matthew Ebden |
1458 |
35.20% |
8.16% |
1.93% |
0.45% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 108 |
Gilles Simon |
1564 |
64.80% |
23.15% |
8.13% |
2.88% |
1.07% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
| 109 |
Christopher Eubanks |
1471 |
51.87% |
9.85% |
2.92% |
0.72% |
0.19% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 110 |
Michael Mmoh |
1458 |
48.13% |
8.60% |
2.42% |
0.57% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 111 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 112 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1723 |
100.00% |
81.55% |
51.51% |
29.20% |
16.96% |
6.07% |
1.99% |
| 113 |
John Isner |
1618 |
100.00% |
69.21% |
38.46% |
15.92% |
6.40% |
1.54% |
0.35% |
| 114 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 115 |
Jiri Vesely |
1507 |
61.59% |
21.28% |
8.54% |
2.40% |
0.64% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 116 |
Lukas Lacko |
1425 |
38.41% |
9.51% |
2.83% |
0.57% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 117 |
Guido Pella |
1535 |
64.80% |
25.16% |
11.12% |
3.47% |
1.03% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
| 118 |
Mikhail Youzhny |
1429 |
35.20% |
9.02% |
2.76% |
0.56% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 119 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 120 |
Gilles Muller |
1614 |
100.00% |
65.82% |
36.29% |
14.84% |
5.88% |
1.39% |
0.31% |
| 121 |
Andrey Rublev |
1601 |
100.00% |
63.28% |
22.11% |
11.46% |
4.35% |
0.98% |
0.21% |
| 122 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 123 |
Ivo Karlovic |
1540 |
63.61% |
26.28% |
7.34% |
3.18% |
0.96% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
| 124 |
Vasek Pospisil |
1443 |
36.39% |
10.45% |
1.95% |
0.60% |
0.12% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 125 |
Taylor Fritz |
1553 |
54.16% |
12.51% |
5.97% |
2.69% |
0.86% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
| 126 |
Pierre-Hugues Herbert |
1524 |
45.84% |
9.29% |
4.06% |
1.67% |
0.48% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 127 |
Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 128 |
Marin Cilic |
1762 |
100.00% |
78.21% |
58.57% |
42.63% |
25.54% |
10.39% |
3.84% |
