Monday, 26 March 2018

2018 Miami Week 2 Predictions - Women's

We're down to the last 16, so I'm going to update my Miami predictions, but firstly, after the jump, a look at how the early rounds went.

Stock tournament image, ©printyourbrackets.com

  • Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, only Elina Svitolina is still in. Simona Halep lost to Agnieszka Radwanska in round 3, Caroline Wozniacki lost to Monica Puig in round 2 and Serena Williams lost to Naomi Osaka in round 1.
  • Whilst Kiki Bertens had the easiest overall draw, this didn't help her to victory, as she lost to Venus Williams in the 3rd round. Johanna Larsson and Naomi Osaka had the toughest overall draws and lost to Angelique Kerber and Elina Svitolina, both in round 2.
  • Andrea Petkovic had the easiest 1st round draw, and won as expected against Polona Hercog, but then lost in round 2. Despite having the toughest 1st round draw, Naomi Osaka won her match against Serena Williams, but then also lost in round 2.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like.
  • Elina Svitolina is now the favourite to win the title with a 17.03% chance, Angelique Kerber is the 2nd favourite at 13.69%, Karolina Pliskova is 3rd at 13.16%, and Petra Kvitova 4th most likely with 13.01%.
  • The easiest draws relative to their rankings go to Agnieszka Radwanska, Angelique Kerber and Danielle Collins. They are the 9th, 2nd and 14th most likely winners, but they are the 10th, 3rd and 15th highest ranked players in the tournament.
  • On the other hand, Petra Kvitova has the toughest draw relative to her ranking, as she's the 4th most likely to win while having the 2nd highest ranking of the remaining players.
  • Ashleigh Barty has the toughest 4th round match, as she's the 14th most likely player to win her next match, while she is the 9th highest ranked player still competing.
  • The player with the easiest next match compared to their ranking is Danielle Collins. She's the 9th most likely to make it to the quarter finals, while she's the 15th highest ranked player remaining.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.





#NameELOR4 %R5 %R6 %R7 %
1Agnieszka Radwanska167238.41%16.35%6.79%2.64%
2Victoria Azarenka175461.59%32.99%17.46%8.74%
3Zarina Diyas154621.30%5.71%1.49%0.36%
4Karolina Pliskova177378.70%44.95%24.98%13.16%
5Garbine Muguruza173860.08%30.80%15.39%7.36%
6Sloane Stephens166739.92%16.70%6.70%2.57%
7Angelique Kerber177380.38%47.36%25.98%13.69%
8Wang Yafan152819.62%5.14%1.21%0.27%
9Jelena Ostapenko165631.37%10.54%4.87%1.84%
10Petra Kvitova179268.63%35.60%22.96%13.01%
11Ashleigh Barty168231.00%12.60%6.27%2.59%
12Elina Svitolina182169.00%41.26%28.09%17.03%
13Venus Williams175460.08%44.22%20.72%10.63%
14Johanna Konta168339.92%25.95%9.66%4.00%
15Danielle Collins154141.73%10.79%2.28%0.55%
16Monica Puig159958.27%19.05%5.15%1.57%