Wednesday, 21 March 2018

2018 Miami Predictions - Women's

The Miami tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Women's bracket will turn out.




Apologies for the delay, I had a busy day yesterday, and I wanted to wait for qualifiers to be placed.




After the jump, I present a table for percentages for all 96 players competing and how they will do.

Stock tournament image, ©printyourbrackets.com


But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
  • Simona Halep is the favourite to win the title, as she has a 12.57% chance of winning the title. Caroline Wozniacki is 2nd favourite with 12.34%, Serena Williams is 3rd with 10.53% and Petra Kvitova 4th with 7.12%.
  • Kiki Bertens has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have her as the 40th most likely winner, while she is only the 54th highest ranked player here.
  • On the other hand, Johanna Larsson and Naomi Osaka have a tough draw. They are the 74th and 30th most likely winners, but they are the 60th and 16th highest ranked player competing.
  • The toughest 1st round draw went to Naomi Osaka again, as she's the 96th most likely player to progress to round 2, but she's ranked 16th of the competitors. 
  • Andrea Petkovic got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's the 51st most likely player to advance to round 2, while she's the 89th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.






# Name ELO R1 % R2 % R3 % R4 % R5 % R6 % R7 %
1 Simona Halep 1826 100.00% 87.50% 67.55% 47.57% 31.82% 21.45% 12.57%
2 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
3 Veronica Cepede Royg 1489 50.29% 6.32% 2.15% 0.57% 0.14% 0.03% 0.01%
4 Oceane Dodin 1487 49.71% 6.18% 2.09% 0.55% 0.13% 0.03% 0.01%
5 Kateryna Bondarenko 1508 50.72% 15.47% 2.89% 0.82% 0.21% 0.06% 0.01%
6 Alison Van Uytvanck 1503 49.28% 14.74% 2.70% 0.75% 0.19% 0.05% 0.01%
7 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Agnieszka Radwanska 1651 100.00% 69.79% 22.61% 10.63% 4.61% 2.02% 0.72%
9 Anastasija Sevastova 1652 100.00% 64.55% 28.06% 10.23% 4.45% 1.96% 0.70%
10 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
11 Bethanie Mattek-Sands 1502 39.51% 11.72% 2.89% 0.60% 0.15% 0.04% 0.01%
12 Alize Cornet 1576 60.49% 23.73% 7.90% 2.20% 0.74% 0.25% 0.07%
13 Catherine Bellis 1605 32.75% 12.14% 5.87% 1.82% 0.68% 0.26% 0.08%
14 Victoria Azarenka 1730 67.25% 36.81% 24.09% 11.15% 6.05% 3.31% 1.51%
15 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
16 Madison Keys 1697 100.00% 51.05% 31.20% 13.12% 6.52% 3.27% 1.35%
17 Julia Gorges 1730 100.00% 79.52% 50.28% 28.54% 13.77% 7.54% 3.45%
18 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
19 Tatjana Maria 1399 31.99% 4.14% 0.90% 0.16% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
20 Carina Witthoft 1530 68.01% 16.34% 5.95% 1.85% 0.44% 0.13% 0.03%
21 Zarina Diyas 1513 53.73% 15.05% 4.25% 1.23% 0.28% 0.07% 0.02%
22 Jennifer Brady 1487 46.27% 11.61% 2.96% 0.78% 0.16% 0.04% 0.01%
23 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
24 Svetlana Kuznetsova 1677 100.00% 73.34% 35.66% 17.72% 7.30% 3.46% 1.34%
25 Sorana Cirstea 1558 100.00% 56.07% 15.96% 5.36% 1.44% 0.46% 0.11%
26 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
27 Katie Boulter 1490 43.56% 17.57% 3.75% 0.97% 0.20% 0.05% 0.01%
28 Hseih Su-Wei 1535 56.44% 26.35% 6.83% 2.11% 0.52% 0.15% 0.03%
29 Timea Bacsinszky 1627 46.27% 14.57% 9.06% 3.85% 1.34% 0.55% 0.18%
30 Ekaterina Makarova 1653 53.73% 18.70% 12.28% 5.65% 2.15% 0.95% 0.34%
31 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
32 Karolina Pliskova 1762 100.00% 66.72% 52.12% 31.77% 16.70% 9.88% 4.94%
33 Garbine Muguruza 1729 100.00% 73.02% 45.86% 30.75% 16.55% 8.01% 3.65%
34 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
35 Amanda Anisimova 1514 40.34% 9.07% 3.08% 1.16% 0.31% 0.07% 0.01%
36 Wang Qiang 1582 59.66% 17.91% 7.67% 3.61% 1.24% 0.36% 0.10%
37 Christina McHale 1476 40.61% 9.67% 2.34% 0.77% 0.17% 0.03% 0.01%
38 Kaia Kanepi 1542 59.39% 18.63% 5.85% 2.43% 0.71% 0.18% 0.04%
39 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
40 Barbora Strycova 1678 100.00% 71.70% 35.19% 21.26% 9.95% 4.13% 1.60%
41 Magdalena Rybarikova 1594 100.00% 61.50% 28.42% 10.98% 3.92% 1.21% 0.35%
42 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
43 Monica Niculescu 1525 53.88% 21.66% 7.98% 2.40% 0.66% 0.15% 0.03%
44 Yulia Putintseva 1498 46.12% 16.85% 5.63% 1.52% 0.38% 0.08% 0.02%
45 Lesia Tsurenko 1584 66.74% 26.64% 14.12% 5.27% 1.82% 0.54% 0.15%
46 Ajla Tomljanovic 1463 33.26% 8.27% 2.99% 0.70% 0.15% 0.03% 0.00%
47 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
48 Sloane Stephens 1655 100.00% 65.08% 40.86% 19.16% 8.37% 3.22% 1.16%
49 Angelique Kerber 1763 100.00% 77.79% 56.32% 34.80% 22.36% 11.86% 5.95%
50 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
51 Johanna Larsson 1515 42.71% 8.26% 3.23% 0.95% 0.30% 0.07% 0.01%
52 Katerina Siniakova 1566 57.29% 13.94% 6.43% 2.28% 0.86% 0.24% 0.06%
53 Aliaksandra Sasnovich 1576 61.04% 26.59% 8.45% 3.11% 1.21% 0.35% 0.09%
54 Kristyna Pliskova 1498 38.96% 12.86% 3.02% 0.83% 0.24% 0.05% 0.01%
55 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
56 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 1621 100.00% 60.55% 22.56% 9.61% 4.32% 1.47% 0.47%
57 Carla Suarez Navarro 1648 100.00% 67.18% 29.49% 13.18% 6.41% 2.41% 0.84%
58 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
59 Wang Yafan 1491 42.15% 12.15% 3.06% 0.79% 0.22% 0.05% 0.01%
60 Marketa Vondrousova 1546 57.85% 20.67% 6.44% 2.05% 0.72% 0.18% 0.04%
61 Magda Linette 1506 47.56% 9.86% 3.56% 0.97% 0.29% 0.06% 0.01%
62 Alison Riske 1523 52.44% 11.74% 4.49% 1.31% 0.42% 0.10% 0.02%
63 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
64 Caroline Garcia 1739 100.00% 78.40% 52.95% 30.13% 18.42% 9.17% 4.30%
65 Jelena Ostapenko 1641 100.00% 65.55% 42.43% 15.94% 5.70% 2.30% 0.86%
66 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
67 Mona Barthel 1506 44.13% 13.90% 6.37% 1.42% 0.31% 0.08% 0.02%
68 Timea Babos 1547 55.87% 20.56% 10.63% 2.81% 0.72% 0.21% 0.05%
69 Beatriz Haddad Maia 1509 50.00% 21.71% 8.04% 1.82% 0.40% 0.10% 0.02%
70 Heather Watson 1509 50.00% 21.71% 8.04% 1.82% 0.40% 0.10% 0.02%
71 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
72 Zhang Shuai 1555 100.00% 56.58% 24.48% 6.69% 1.75% 0.52% 0.14%
73 Daria Kasatkina 1719 100.00% 78.11% 36.77% 25.22% 11.47% 5.81% 2.78%
74 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
75 Stefanie Vogele 1482 45.84% 9.33% 1.88% 0.69% 0.13% 0.03% 0.01%
76 Sofia Kenin 1511 54.16% 12.56% 2.86% 1.15% 0.25% 0.06% 0.01%
77 Madison Brengle 1446 33.13% 4.16% 0.95% 0.30% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
78 Aryna Sabalenka 1568 66.87% 15.04% 5.44% 2.63% 0.72% 0.23% 0.06%
79 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
80 Petra Kvitova 1783 100.00% 80.80% 52.11% 39.50% 21.25% 12.56% 7.12%
81 Kristina Mladenovic 1549 100.00% 52.32% 20.85% 4.56% 1.41% 0.41% 0.11%
82 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
83 Lauren Davis 1490 39.92% 16.60% 5.39% 0.91% 0.22% 0.05% 0.01%
84 Petra Martic 1561 60.08% 31.08% 12.87% 2.96% 0.96% 0.29% 0.08%
85 Claire Liu 1469 45.55% 10.90% 4.31% 0.66% 0.15% 0.03% 0.01%
86 Whitney Osuigwe 1500 54.45% 14.87% 6.53% 1.15% 0.30% 0.07% 0.02%
87 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
88 Ashleigh Barty 1670 100.00% 74.23% 50.06% 17.40% 8.04% 3.55% 1.46%
89 Daria Gavrilova 1654 100.00% 74.93% 20.42% 11.68% 5.15% 2.16% 0.84%
90 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
91 Andrea Petkovic 1476 53.88% 14.23% 1.71% 0.57% 0.13% 0.03% 0.01%
92 Polona Hercog 1449 46.12% 10.84% 1.14% 0.34% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
93 Serena Williams 1875 75.76% 45.10% 36.73% 30.14% 21.80% 15.35% 10.53%
94 Naomi Osaka 1677 24.24% 7.75% 4.60% 2.77% 1.31% 0.59% 0.25%
95 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
96 Elina Svitolina 1808 100.00% 47.15% 35.40% 26.85% 17.30% 10.79% 6.48%
97 Venus Williams 1745 100.00% 80.04% 62.92% 41.74% 23.00% 11.13% 5.73%
98 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
99 Natalia Vikhlyantseva 1513 52.88% 11.01% 5.42% 1.89% 0.51% 0.11% 0.02%
100 Rebecca Peterson 1493 47.12% 8.95% 4.15% 1.35% 0.33% 0.07% 0.01%
101 Varvara Lepchenko 1499 49.42% 22.30% 5.68% 1.89% 0.48% 0.10% 0.02%
102 Viktorija Golubic 1503 50.58% 23.11% 5.98% 2.01% 0.52% 0.11% 0.02%
103 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
104 Kiki Bertens 1533 100.00% 54.59% 15.86% 5.95% 1.73% 0.40% 0.10%
105 Elise Mertens 1640 100.00% 69.55% 36.12% 17.02% 7.09% 2.47% 0.92%
106 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
107 Bernada Pera 1505 52.59% 16.56% 5.59% 1.71% 0.45% 0.09% 0.02%
108 Lara Arruabarrena 1487 47.41% 13.89% 4.38% 1.25% 0.30% 0.06% 0.01%
109 Kirsten Flipkens 1520 46.69% 13.96% 5.51% 1.78% 0.49% 0.11% 0.03%
110 Mihaela Buzarnescu 1543 53.31% 17.46% 7.43% 2.60% 0.78% 0.19% 0.05%
111 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
112 Johanna Konta 1668 100.00% 68.58% 40.97% 20.80% 9.40% 3.60% 1.47%
113 Coco Vandeweghe 1651 100.00% 66.21% 41.11% 16.54% 7.94% 2.88% 1.11%
114 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
115 Danielle Collins 1507 43.28% 13.15% 5.51% 1.35% 0.40% 0.08% 0.02%
116 Irina-Camelia Begu 1554 56.72% 20.64% 10.02% 2.92% 1.03% 0.26% 0.07%
117 Camila Giorgi 1588 67.00% 35.23% 16.41% 5.39% 2.13% 0.62% 0.19%
118 Donna Vekic 1465 33.00% 11.66% 3.55% 0.73% 0.18% 0.03% 0.01%
119 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
120 Elena Vesnina 1570 100.00% 53.11% 23.41% 7.22% 2.69% 0.72% 0.21%
121 Anett Kontaveit 1565 100.00% 57.55% 14.60% 6.63% 2.43% 0.64% 0.18%
122 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
123 Aleksandra Krunic 1508 48.85% 20.45% 4.11% 1.55% 0.46% 0.10% 0.02%
124 Maria Sakkari 1516 51.15% 21.99% 4.57% 1.77% 0.54% 0.12% 0.03%
125 Monica Puig 1565 51.73% 10.05% 5.35% 2.43% 0.89% 0.23% 0.07%
126 Samantha Stosur 1553 48.27% 8.87% 4.57% 2.00% 0.70% 0.18% 0.05%
127 Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
128 Caroline Wozniacki 1812 100.00% 81.07% 66.80% 51.48% 35.52% 20.36% 12.34%
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