Tomorrow, the 2nd Grand Slam tournament of the year, the French Open, begins. Let's take a look at the draw for this tournament, and my predictions for the tournament, including who's most likely to win, and full probabilities for how likely each player is to make it to each round.
- Rafael Nadal is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 26.26 chance of winning the whole thing, with Novak Djokovic next at 23.36%. The 3rd most likely is Roger Federer with 10.71% and Alexander Zverev is the 4th favourite with 7.04%
- Dominic Thiem has the easiest overall draw, as he is 0.58 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Andrey Rublev has a tough draw. He is 0.58 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Alexei Popyrin, as he's 48.86 percentage points less likely to win than a player of his rank is expected to win. Salvatore Caruso got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's 39.37 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than his ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak Djokovic | 1994 | 94.92% | 87.06% | 81.17% | 72.86% | 51.42% | 31.64% | 23.36% |
| 2 | Tennys Sandgren | 1485 | 5.08% | 1.89% | 0.84% | 0.28% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Lucas Pouille | 1588 | 53.92% | 6.28% | 3.67% | 1.72% | 0.40% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 4 | Pablo Cuevas | 1561 | 46.08% | 4.77% | 2.61% | 1.12% | 0.24% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 5 | Salvatore Caruso | 1439 | 46.93% | 15.54% | 1.20% | 0.33% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 6 | James Duckworth | 1460 | 53.07% | 19.03% | 1.61% | 0.49% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Ricardas Berankis | 1501 | 36.32% | 20.79% | 2.11% | 0.74% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Ugo Humbert | 1598 | 63.68% | 44.64% | 6.80% | 3.29% | 0.80% | 0.15% | 0.04% |
| 9 | Alex De Minaur | 1657 | 74.92% | 54.66% | 30.64% | 6.84% | 2.07% | 0.49% | 0.15% |
| 10 | Stefano Travaglia | 1467 | 25.08% | 11.92% | 3.58% | 0.39% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Yasutaka Uchiyama | 1463 | 44.53% | 13.75% | 4.06% | 0.44% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 12 | Marco Cecchinato | 1502 | 55.47% | 19.68% | 6.75% | 0.85% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Jo-Wilfried Tsonga | 1630 | 57.42% | 29.64% | 16.91% | 3.44% | 0.94% | 0.20% | 0.06% |
| 14 | Yoshihito Nishioka | 1578 | 42.58% | 18.82% | 9.42% | 1.59% | 0.36% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 15 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1604 | 45.96% | 22.69% | 12.14% | 2.25% | 0.56% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 16 | David Goffin | 1632 | 54.04% | 28.85% | 16.52% | 3.38% | 0.93% | 0.20% | 0.06% |
| 17 | Matteo Berrettini | 1747 | 84.24% | 66.33% | 42.55% | 16.44% | 5.42% | 1.76% | 0.74% |
| 18 | Taro Daniel | 1456 | 15.76% | 6.48% | 1.70% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Federico Coria | 1493 | 43.38% | 10.64% | 3.23% | 0.51% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 20 | Feliciano Lopez | 1539 | 56.62% | 16.56% | 5.96% | 1.13% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 21 | Kevin Anderson | 1695 | 73.63% | 46.25% | 24.67% | 8.15% | 2.29% | 0.62% | 0.22% |
| 22 | Kwon Soon-Woo | 1517 | 26.37% | 10.15% | 3.17% | 0.55% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 23 | Andreas Seppi | 1503 | 30.81% | 9.55% | 2.84% | 0.47% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 24 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1644 | 69.19% | 34.05% | 15.89% | 4.44% | 1.05% | 0.24% | 0.07% |
| 25 | Taylor Fritz | 1621 | 77.00% | 49.31% | 10.84% | 4.56% | 1.00% | 0.21% | 0.06% |
| 26 | Joao Sousa | 1411 | 23.00% | 8.02% | 0.72% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Mathias Bourgue | 1494 | 43.34% | 16.99% | 2.22% | 0.59% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 28 | Dominik Koepfer | 1541 | 56.66% | 25.69% | 4.10% | 1.31% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 29 | Marin Cilic | 1625 | 65.03% | 11.98% | 7.02% | 2.98% | 0.66% | 0.14% | 0.04% |
| 30 | Arthur Rinderknech | 1517 | 34.97% | 4.08% | 1.78% | 0.52% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 31 | Denis Istomin | 1439 | 5.73% | 1.73% | 0.58% | 0.12% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 32 | Roger Federer | 1926 | 94.27% | 82.20% | 72.74% | 57.86% | 30.51% | 16.24% | 10.71% |
| 33 | Rafael Nadal | 2011 | 92.44% | 86.02% | 77.36% | 68.75% | 56.25% | 34.71% | 26.26% |
| 34 | Alexei Popyrin | 1576 | 7.56% | 3.99% | 1.72% | 0.72% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 35 | Hugo Gaston | 1511 | 39.28% | 3.14% | 1.08% | 0.36% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 36 | Richard Gasquet | 1586 | 60.72% | 6.85% | 3.05% | 1.32% | 0.44% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 37 | Cameron Norrie | 1659 | 76.31% | 42.99% | 8.10% | 4.31% | 1.82% | 0.38% | 0.12% |
| 38 | Bjorn Fratangelo | 1456 | 23.69% | 6.82% | 0.56% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 39 | Lloyd Harris | 1575 | 40.57% | 18.20% | 2.48% | 1.04% | 0.34% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 40 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1642 | 59.43% | 31.99% | 5.64% | 2.86% | 1.15% | 0.22% | 0.07% |
| 41 | Jannik Sinner | 1724 | 70.89% | 53.19% | 36.07% | 9.76% | 4.90% | 1.31% | 0.51% |
| 42 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert | 1569 | 29.11% | 16.11% | 7.60% | 1.17% | 0.37% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 43 | Gianluca Mager | 1498 | 41.86% | 11.23% | 4.22% | 0.49% | 0.12% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 44 | John Millman | 1555 | 58.14% | 19.46% | 8.81% | 1.29% | 0.39% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 45 | Mikael Ymer | 1479 | 47.57% | 13.96% | 4.11% | 0.43% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 46 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 1496 | 52.43% | 16.47% | 5.16% | 0.59% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 47 | Albert Ramos Vinolas | 1607 | 43.58% | 28.97% | 13.15% | 2.35% | 0.85% | 0.14% | 0.04% |
| 48 | Gael Monfils | 1652 | 56.42% | 40.60% | 20.88% | 4.41% | 1.82% | 0.37% | 0.11% |
| 49 | Diego Schwartzman | 1669 | 76.85% | 50.73% | 30.77% | 13.07% | 3.26% | 0.71% | 0.23% |
| 50 | Yen-Hsun Lu | 1460 | 23.15% | 8.61% | 2.82% | 0.60% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Adrian Mannarino | 1508 | 39.64% | 13.87% | 5.38% | 1.37% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 52 | Aljaz Bedene | 1581 | 60.36% | 26.79% | 13.05% | 4.27% | 0.77% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 53 | Philipp Kohlschreiber | 1519 | 46.68% | 17.20% | 6.57% | 1.74% | 0.25% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 54 | Fernando Verdasco | 1542 | 53.32% | 21.24% | 8.77% | 2.52% | 0.39% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 55 | Jenson Brooksby | 1499 | 28.25% | 12.85% | 4.59% | 1.13% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 56 | Aslan Karatsev | 1661 | 71.75% | 48.71% | 28.06% | 11.67% | 2.84% | 0.60% | 0.19% |
| 57 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1555 | 57.65% | 32.87% | 8.68% | 3.66% | 0.60% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 58 | Dusan Lajovic | 1502 | 42.35% | 20.91% | 4.53% | 1.59% | 0.21% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1521 | 54.67% | 26.41% | 6.15% | 2.31% | 0.33% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 60 | Bernabe Zapata Miralles | 1488 | 45.33% | 19.80% | 4.07% | 1.36% | 0.17% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 61 | Facundo Bagnis | 1451 | 45.24% | 6.12% | 2.45% | 0.71% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Benjamin Bonzi | 1484 | 54.76% | 8.63% | 3.85% | 1.27% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 63 | Jan-Lennard Struff | 1590 | 18.89% | 12.60% | 7.52% | 3.53% | 0.66% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 64 | Andrey Rublev | 1843 | 81.11% | 72.66% | 62.74% | 49.19% | 20.86% | 8.38% | 4.62% |
| 65 | Alexander Zverev | 1856 | 89.24% | 79.96% | 65.26% | 47.31% | 31.46% | 18.77% | 7.04% |
| 66 | Oscar Otte | 1489 | 10.76% | 5.48% | 1.95% | 0.51% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 67 | Roman Safiullin | 1483 | 50.24% | 7.34% | 2.55% | 0.65% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 68 | Carlos Taberner | 1481 | 49.76% | 7.22% | 2.50% | 0.63% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 69 | Corentin Moutet | 1551 | 48.26% | 19.74% | 4.68% | 1.55% | 0.44% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 70 | Laslo Djere | 1563 | 51.74% | 22.02% | 5.45% | 1.88% | 0.56% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 71 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1563 | 38.00% | 19.32% | 4.78% | 1.65% | 0.49% | 0.12% | 0.01% |
| 72 | Daniel Evans | 1648 | 62.00% | 38.92% | 12.83% | 5.85% | 2.34% | 0.77% | 0.13% |
| 73 | Karen Khachanov | 1636 | 65.11% | 29.03% | 13.92% | 4.80% | 1.84% | 0.58% | 0.09% |
| 74 | Jiri Vesely | 1527 | 34.89% | 10.88% | 3.74% | 0.88% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Kei Nishikori | 1720 | 81.33% | 54.11% | 31.85% | 14.14% | 6.95% | 2.91% | 0.66% |
| 76 | Alessandro Giannessi | 1464 | 18.67% | 5.97% | 1.64% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 77 | Yannick Hanfmann | 1531 | 60.76% | 18.23% | 6.02% | 1.44% | 0.38% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 78 | Henri Laaksonen | 1455 | 39.24% | 8.72% | 2.14% | 0.38% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 79 | Mario Vilella Martinez | 1502 | 20.73% | 10.37% | 3.06% | 0.65% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 80 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1735 | 79.27% | 62.68% | 37.63% | 17.39% | 8.89% | 3.89% | 0.93% |
| 81 | Casper Ruud | 1716 | 81.57% | 64.68% | 42.51% | 20.24% | 8.91% | 3.68% | 0.82% |
| 82 | Benoit Paire | 1457 | 18.43% | 8.57% | 2.65% | 0.52% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Kamil Majchrzak | 1456 | 43.38% | 10.44% | 3.21% | 0.62% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 84 | Arthur Cazaux | 1502 | 56.62% | 16.31% | 5.96% | 1.40% | 0.28% | 0.05% | 0.00% |
| 85 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1633 | 68.31% | 38.27% | 19.06% | 7.13% | 2.40% | 0.75% | 0.12% |
| 86 | Mikhail Kukushkin | 1500 | 31.69% | 11.92% | 3.96% | 0.92% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 87 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1509 | 33.31% | 12.90% | 4.43% | 1.07% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 88 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1630 | 66.69% | 36.91% | 18.22% | 6.75% | 2.25% | 0.70% | 0.11% |
| 89 | Fabio Fognini | 1595 | 68.00% | 34.35% | 10.27% | 4.51% | 1.33% | 0.36% | 0.05% |
| 90 | Gregoire Barrere | 1464 | 32.00% | 10.55% | 1.90% | 0.53% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Marton Fucsovics | 1633 | 68.17% | 41.53% | 14.13% | 6.93% | 2.34% | 0.73% | 0.11% |
| 92 | Gilles Simon | 1501 | 31.83% | 13.58% | 2.85% | 0.91% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 93 | Radu Albot | 1530 | 43.60% | 8.55% | 3.62% | 1.28% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 94 | Federico Delbonis | 1574 | 56.40% | 13.22% | 6.42% | 2.64% | 0.72% | 0.18% | 0.02% |
| 95 | Pablo Andujar | 1479 | 11.44% | 4.50% | 1.60% | 0.47% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 96 | Dominic Thiem | 1834 | 88.56% | 73.73% | 59.21% | 44.08% | 26.25% | 14.91% | 5.20% |
| 97 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1876 | 80.97% | 68.07% | 54.40% | 40.43% | 27.53% | 17.40% | 6.95% |
| 98 | Jeremy Chardy | 1624 | 19.03% | 10.70% | 5.28% | 2.23% | 0.84% | 0.26% | 0.04% |
| 99 | Sebastian Korda | 1622 | 69.14% | 17.09% | 8.38% | 3.51% | 1.31% | 0.40% | 0.06% |
| 100 | Pedro Martinez | 1482 | 30.86% | 4.14% | 1.27% | 0.32% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 101 | Maximilian Marterer | 1434 | 25.81% | 6.08% | 0.84% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 102 | Filip Krajinovic | 1618 | 74.19% | 34.29% | 9.99% | 4.14% | 1.52% | 0.46% | 0.07% |
| 103 | Sam Querrey | 1553 | 31.66% | 15.01% | 3.43% | 1.14% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 104 | John Isner | 1687 | 68.34% | 44.62% | 16.41% | 8.32% | 3.75% | 1.44% | 0.28% |
| 105 | Milos Raonic | 1739 | 79.90% | 59.74% | 36.76% | 17.08% | 8.81% | 3.97% | 0.97% |
| 106 | Thiago Monteiro | 1499 | 20.10% | 8.64% | 2.66% | 0.54% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 107 | Steve Johnson | 1512 | 41.13% | 11.30% | 3.65% | 0.78% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 108 | Frances Tiafoe | 1574 | 58.87% | 20.33% | 8.12% | 2.21% | 0.70% | 0.18% | 0.02% |
| 109 | Egor Gerasimov | 1570 | 60.78% | 21.44% | 8.18% | 2.19% | 0.69% | 0.17% | 0.02% |
| 110 | Enzo Couacuad | 1494 | 39.22% | 10.46% | 3.05% | 0.60% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 111 | Norbert Gombos | 1485 | 19.79% | 8.35% | 2.36% | 0.45% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 112 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1728 | 80.21% | 59.75% | 35.21% | 15.88% | 7.98% | 3.48% | 0.81% |
| 113 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1678 | 71.67% | 50.87% | 31.64% | 13.46% | 5.28% | 1.96% | 0.37% |
| 114 | Marcos Giron | 1517 | 28.33% | 13.93% | 5.63% | 1.42% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 115 | Guido Pella | 1522 | 49.78% | 17.47% | 7.18% | 1.84% | 0.41% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 116 | Daniel Elahi Galan | 1523 | 50.22% | 17.73% | 7.32% | 1.89% | 0.42% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 117 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1516 | 48.04% | 17.97% | 6.94% | 1.75% | 0.38% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 118 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1530 | 51.96% | 20.35% | 8.22% | 2.18% | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 119 | Juan Ignacio Londero | 1448 | 23.07% | 9.08% | 2.74% | 0.53% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 120 | Christian Garin | 1657 | 76.93% | 52.60% | 30.33% | 12.18% | 4.46% | 1.55% | 0.27% |
| 121 | Reilly Opelka | 1593 | 64.96% | 38.95% | 11.26% | 5.35% | 1.56% | 0.43% | 0.06% |
| 122 | Andrej Martin | 1485 | 35.04% | 15.66% | 3.01% | 1.00% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Jaume Munar | 1526 | 51.00% | 23.39% | 5.28% | 2.03% | 0.46% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 124 | Jordan Thompson | 1519 | 49.00% | 22.00% | 4.84% | 1.82% | 0.40% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 125 | Tommy Paul | 1563 | 64.49% | 13.66% | 7.21% | 3.13% | 0.82% | 0.20% | 0.02% |
| 126 | Christopher O'Connell | 1460 | 35.51% | 4.74% | 1.81% | 0.55% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 127 | Alexander Bublik | 1603 | 19.03% | 11.54% | 6.73% | 3.29% | 1.00% | 0.28% | 0.04% |
| 128 | Daniil Medvedev | 1855 | 80.97% | 70.06% | 59.86% | 47.57% | 29.52% | 17.87% | 6.67% |
