Saturday 29 May 2021

2021 French Open Predictions - Women's

Tomorrow, the 2nd Grand Slam tournament of the year, the French Open, begins. Let's take a look at the draw for this tournament, and my predictions for the tournament, including who's most likely to win, and full probabilities for how likely each player is to make it to each round.

French Open logo, © French Open



But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
  • Ashleigh Barty is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 23.1% chance of winning the whole thing, with Naomi Osaka next at 14.19%. The 3rd most likely is Aryna Sabalenka with 10.87% and Serena Williams is the 4th favourite with 6.94%
  • Maria Sakkari has the easiest overall draw, as she is 0.28 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Elina Svitolina has a tough draw. She is 0.43 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
  • The toughest 1st round draw went to Ana Konjuh, as she's 40.36 percentage points less likely to win than a player of her rank is expected to win. Steganie Vogele got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's 30.55 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than her ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.

# Name ELO R1 % R2 % R3 % R4 % R5 % R6 % R7 %
1 Ashleigh Barty 1928 91.96% 83.80% 70.93% 58.88% 46.15% 34.12% 23.10%
2 Bernada Pera 1505 8.04% 3.89% 1.35% 0.42% 0.11% 0.02% 0.00%
3 Magda Linette 1557 67.15% 9.61% 3.97% 1.51% 0.48% 0.13% 0.03%
4 Chloe Paquet 1433 32.85% 2.70% 0.71% 0.17% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
5 Irina Bara 1458 41.03% 9.63% 1.14% 0.30% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
6 Astra Sharma 1521 58.97% 18.02% 2.77% 0.92% 0.26% 0.06% 0.01%
7 Yulia Putintseva 1627 41.10% 27.99% 6.44% 3.06% 1.25% 0.43% 0.13%
8 Ons Jabeur 1690 58.90% 44.36% 12.69% 7.14% 3.51% 1.51% 0.55%
9 Coco Gauff 1715 79.92% 54.06% 34.55% 11.88% 6.25% 2.90% 1.15%
10 Aleksandra Krunic 1475 20.08% 6.91% 2.18% 0.30% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
11 Wang Qiang 1581 48.31% 18.48% 8.40% 1.80% 0.63% 0.18% 0.04%
12 Hsieh Su-Wei 1593 51.69% 20.54% 9.67% 2.17% 0.79% 0.24% 0.06%
13 Liang En-Shuo 1503 37.61% 11.76% 3.63% 0.57% 0.15% 0.03% 0.01%
14 Fiona Ferro 1591 62.39% 26.75% 11.24% 2.51% 0.90% 0.27% 0.07%
15 Anastasija Sevastova 1594 39.09% 21.56% 9.16% 2.07% 0.75% 0.23% 0.06%
16 Jennifer Brady 1671 60.91% 39.94% 21.17% 6.30% 2.94% 1.19% 0.41%
17 Karolina Pliskova 1743 71.67% 51.14% 34.06% 19.57% 7.97% 4.01% 1.74%
18 Donna Vekic 1582 28.33% 14.08% 6.42% 2.31% 0.55% 0.16% 0.04%
19 Carla Suarez Navarro 1603 56.29% 20.92% 10.14% 3.93% 1.01% 0.32% 0.08%
20 Sloane Stephens 1559 43.71% 13.86% 5.91% 1.96% 0.43% 0.11% 0.03%
21 Varvara Lepchenko 1410 33.80% 7.06% 1.39% 0.25% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
22 Zhang Shuai 1527 66.20% 22.15% 7.06% 2.08% 0.40% 0.09% 0.02%
23 Andrea Petkovic 1531 27.79% 15.58% 5.05% 1.51% 0.29% 0.07% 0.01%
24 Karolina Muchova 1697 72.21% 55.22% 29.97% 15.37% 5.45% 2.39% 0.89%
25 Ekaterina Alexandrova 1658 63.17% 35.29% 15.84% 7.78% 2.42% 0.94% 0.30%
26 Venus Williams 1564 36.83% 15.89% 5.28% 1.94% 0.43% 0.12% 0.03%
27 Barbora Krejcikova 1661 74.81% 41.33% 18.71% 9.26% 2.91% 1.14% 0.37%
28 Kristyna Pliskova 1472 25.19% 7.49% 1.75% 0.45% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
29 Ann Li 1585 54.12% 17.02% 7.41% 2.91% 0.70% 0.21% 0.05%
30 Margarita Gasparyan 1556 45.88% 12.98% 5.14% 1.83% 0.39% 0.10% 0.02%
31 Oceane Babel 1500 17.12% 6.83% 2.21% 0.64% 0.11% 0.02% 0.00%
32 Elina Svitolina 1774 82.88% 63.17% 43.67% 28.19% 12.54% 6.84% 3.25%
33 Sofia Kenin 1702 57.99% 45.75% 28.04% 13.21% 6.17% 2.29% 0.87%
34 Jelena Ostapenko 1646 42.01% 30.69% 16.62% 6.62% 2.61% 0.80% 0.25%
35 Hailey Baptiste 1491 56.25% 14.35% 4.97% 1.13% 0.25% 0.04% 0.01%
36 Anna Blinkova 1448 43.75% 9.21% 2.73% 0.52% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00%
37 Tereza Martincova 1455 48.73% 12.51% 3.46% 0.68% 0.13% 0.02% 0.00%
38 Ivana Jorovic 1464 51.27% 13.62% 3.90% 0.79% 0.16% 0.02% 0.00%
39 Zhu Lin 1465 20.60% 10.45% 3.00% 0.61% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00%
40 Jessica Pegula 1699 79.40% 63.42% 37.28% 17.41% 8.05% 2.96% 1.11%
41 Maria Sakkari 1726 84.07% 69.85% 36.10% 21.67% 10.82% 4.34% 1.79%
42 Katarina Zavatska 1437 15.93% 7.75% 1.55% 0.37% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
43 Jasmine Paolini 1478 61.41% 15.43% 3.63% 1.02% 0.21% 0.03% 0.01%
44 Stefanie Vogele 1397 38.59% 6.96% 1.18% 0.24% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
45 Heather Watson 1490 45.66% 9.31% 2.89% 0.85% 0.19% 0.03% 0.00%
46 Zarina Diyas 1520 54.34% 12.52% 4.30% 1.42% 0.35% 0.07% 0.01%
47 Storm Sanders 1468 13.69% 6.11% 1.76% 0.48% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00%
48 Elise Mertens 1788 86.31% 72.07% 48.60% 32.99% 19.19% 9.18% 4.54%
49 Garbine Muguruza 1812 84.06% 67.78% 54.30% 35.91% 22.62% 11.51% 6.06%
50 Marta Kostyuk 1523 15.94% 7.06% 3.14% 0.91% 0.24% 0.04% 0.01%
51 Zheng Saisai 1538 43.53% 9.88% 4.59% 1.41% 0.39% 0.08% 0.02%
52 Sara Sorribes Tormo 1583 56.47% 15.29% 8.07% 2.91% 0.95% 0.23% 0.06%
53 Lara Arruabarrena 1485 53.60% 17.96% 3.92% 0.98% 0.22% 0.03% 0.01%
54 Varvara Gracheva 1460 46.40% 14.10% 2.77% 0.62% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00%
55 Camila Giorgi 1582 44.34% 28.90% 9.12% 3.28% 1.07% 0.26% 0.06%
56 Petra Martic 1622 55.66% 39.04% 14.09% 5.78% 2.16% 0.61% 0.17%
57 Anett Kontaveit 1727 76.39% 58.93% 33.12% 17.55% 9.05% 3.64% 1.50%
58 Viktorija Golubic 1523 23.61% 12.06% 3.62% 1.03% 0.27% 0.05% 0.01%
59 Anna Karolina Schmiedlova 1504 46.84% 12.98% 3.62% 0.96% 0.23% 0.04% 0.01%
60 Kristina Mladenovic 1526 53.16% 16.03% 4.87% 1.40% 0.37% 0.07% 0.01%
61 Rebecca Peterson 1549 41.81% 12.43% 4.72% 1.48% 0.42% 0.09% 0.02%
62 Shelby Rogers 1607 58.19% 21.21% 9.61% 3.64% 1.30% 0.34% 0.09%
63 Kaja Juvan 1504 19.09% 7.43% 2.42% 0.64% 0.15% 0.03% 0.00%
64 Iga Swiatek 1755 80.91% 58.92% 38.03% 21.50% 11.91% 5.20% 2.34%
65 Serena Williams 1824 85.08% 74.08% 55.51% 37.89% 22.24% 13.18% 6.94%
66 Irina-Camelia Begu 1522 14.92% 8.08% 2.88% 0.88% 0.20% 0.05% 0.01%
67 Arantxa Rus 1495 50.66% 9.12% 2.95% 0.82% 0.17% 0.03% 0.01%
68 Mihaela Buzarnescu 1490 49.34% 8.71% 2.77% 0.75% 0.15% 0.03% 0.00%
69 Danielle Collins 1666 75.05% 44.00% 17.56% 8.47% 3.26% 1.27% 0.41%
70 Wang Xiyu 1475 24.95% 8.27% 1.71% 0.44% 0.08% 0.02% 0.00%
71 Anhelina Kalinina 1474 26.82% 8.34% 1.72% 0.44% 0.08% 0.02% 0.00%
72 Angelique Kerber 1648 73.18% 39.39% 14.90% 6.84% 2.49% 0.91% 0.28%
73 Elena Rybakina 1658 72.49% 53.96% 24.50% 9.86% 3.70% 1.40% 0.44%
74 Elsa Jacquemot 1489 27.51% 14.45% 3.78% 0.83% 0.17% 0.03% 0.01%
75 Nao Hibino 1467 48.63% 15.08% 3.62% 0.72% 0.13% 0.02% 0.00%
76 Nina Stojanovic 1476 51.37% 16.51% 4.11% 0.85% 0.16% 0.03% 0.00%
77 Elena Vesnina 1544 66.67% 18.21% 8.34% 2.27% 0.57% 0.14% 0.03%
78 Olga Govortsova 1423 33.33% 5.57% 1.70% 0.28% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
79 Greet Minnen 1474 15.37% 7.03% 2.58% 0.53% 0.10% 0.02% 0.00%
80 Petra Kvitova 1770 84.63% 69.19% 51.36% 28.12% 14.55% 7.60% 3.46%
81 Victoria Azarenka 1766 69.06% 56.02% 40.01% 20.46% 10.92% 5.65% 2.55%
82 Svetlana Kuznetsova 1627 30.94% 20.37% 10.87% 3.75% 1.32% 0.45% 0.13%
83 Clara Tauson 1530 55.67% 14.12% 5.65% 1.39% 0.34% 0.08% 0.02%
84 Ekaterine Gorgodze 1490 44.33% 9.49% 3.30% 0.70% 0.14% 0.03% 0.00%
85 Leylah Annie Fernandez 1565 50.55% 21.60% 7.61% 2.13% 0.60% 0.16% 0.04%
86 Anastasia Potapova 1561 49.45% 20.88% 7.26% 2.00% 0.55% 0.15% 0.03%
87 Oceane Dodin 1485 26.33% 10.27% 2.70% 0.56% 0.11% 0.02% 0.00%
88 Madison Keys 1664 73.67% 47.25% 22.59% 8.75% 3.48% 1.34% 0.43%
89 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 1649 77.18% 54.20% 18.32% 8.68% 3.29% 1.21% 0.37%
90 Christina McHale 1437 22.82% 9.44% 1.43% 0.32% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
91 Kateryna Kozlova 1455 39.79% 12.35% 2.02% 0.48% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00%
92 Ajla Tomljanovic 1527 60.21% 24.01% 5.26% 1.68% 0.41% 0.09% 0.02%
93 Diane Parry 1475 39.05% 5.35% 1.96% 0.51% 0.10% 0.02% 0.00%
94 Aliaksandra Sasnovich 1553 60.95% 11.82% 5.53% 1.93% 0.52% 0.13% 0.03%
95 Ana Konjuh 1608 18.61% 11.54% 6.27% 2.64% 0.87% 0.28% 0.07%
96 Aryna Sabalenka 1865 81.39% 71.29% 59.21% 44.03% 29.11% 18.73% 10.87%
97 Bianca Andreescu 1774 81.49% 65.09% 44.01% 30.82% 16.17% 7.99% 3.68%
98 Tamara Zidansek 1516 18.51% 8.93% 2.98% 1.05% 0.24% 0.05% 0.01%
99 Madison Brengle 1445 32.76% 5.90% 1.48% 0.40% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
100 Maria Camila Osorio Serrano 1570 67.24% 20.08% 8.07% 3.43% 0.97% 0.24% 0.05%
101 Marie Bouzkova 1567 53.30% 18.40% 6.30% 2.66% 0.74% 0.18% 0.04%
102 Katerina Siniakova 1544 46.70% 14.78% 4.67% 1.83% 0.47% 0.10% 0.02%
103 Amanda Anisimova 1627 38.05% 22.85% 9.48% 4.79% 1.65% 0.51% 0.14%
104 Veronika Kudermetova 1712 61.95% 43.98% 23.02% 14.33% 6.40% 2.64% 1.00%
105 Johanna Konta 1626 49.76% 33.42% 16.37% 6.69% 2.30% 0.70% 0.20%
106 Sorana Cirstea 1628 50.24% 33.85% 16.66% 6.84% 2.36% 0.73% 0.20%
107 Alison Van Uytvanck 1532 62.07% 22.80% 8.28% 2.44% 0.60% 0.13% 0.02%
108 Martina Trevisan 1447 37.93% 9.93% 2.60% 0.54% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00%
109 Daria Kasatkina 1666 78.61% 44.85% 27.25% 12.58% 4.92% 1.74% 0.57%
110 Misaki Doi 1440 21.39% 5.81% 1.77% 0.36% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
111 Nadia Podoroska 1539 33.92% 13.28% 5.73% 1.73% 0.43% 0.09% 0.02%
112 Belinda Bencic 1655 66.08% 36.05% 21.34% 9.53% 3.59% 1.22% 0.38%
113 Kiki Bertens 1686 75.25% 48.09% 30.09% 11.74% 5.97% 2.26% 0.79%
114 Polona Hercog 1493 24.75% 9.12% 3.28% 0.65% 0.17% 0.03% 0.00%
115 Laura Siegemund 1577 47.14% 19.52% 9.24% 2.52% 0.91% 0.23% 0.05%
116 Caroline Garcia 1596 52.86% 23.28% 11.67% 3.41% 1.32% 0.36% 0.09%
117 Alize Cornet 1579 64.66% 28.33% 12.30% 3.39% 1.24% 0.32% 0.07%
118 Harmony Tan 1474 35.34% 10.58% 3.17% 0.59% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00%
119 Kaia Kanepi 1602 44.77% 26.14% 12.18% 3.64% 1.44% 0.40% 0.10%
120 Marketa Vondrousova 1639 55.23% 34.96% 18.07% 6.09% 2.70% 0.87% 0.26%
121 Paula Badosa 1657 73.51% 51.49% 16.90% 9.29% 4.35% 1.49% 0.47%
122 Lauren Davis 1479 26.49% 12.11% 2.12% 0.66% 0.16% 0.03% 0.00%
123 Clara Burel 1503 48.38% 17.25% 3.31% 1.13% 0.31% 0.06% 0.01%
124 Danka Kovinic 1515 51.62% 19.15% 3.84% 1.36% 0.39% 0.08% 0.01%
125 Elisabetta Cocciaretto 1479 51.41% 7.06% 2.57% 0.80% 0.20% 0.03% 0.00%
126 Ana Bogdan 1470 48.59% 6.39% 2.24% 0.67% 0.16% 0.03% 0.00%
127 Patricia Maria Tig 1521 11.95% 6.77% 2.83% 1.03% 0.30% 0.06% 0.01%
128 Naomi Osaka 1868 88.05% 79.77% 66.20% 53.05% 39.15% 24.27% 14.19%