Tomorrow, the 2nd Grand Slam tournament of the year, the French Open, begins. Let's take a look at the draw for this tournament, and my predictions for the tournament, including who's most likely to win, and full probabilities for how likely each player is to make it to each round.
- Ashleigh Barty is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 23.1% chance of winning the whole thing, with Naomi Osaka next at 14.19%. The 3rd most likely is Aryna Sabalenka with 10.87% and Serena Williams is the 4th favourite with 6.94%
- Maria Sakkari has the easiest overall draw, as she is 0.28 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Elina Svitolina has a tough draw. She is 0.43 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Ana Konjuh, as she's 40.36 percentage points less likely to win than a player of her rank is expected to win. Steganie Vogele got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's 30.55 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than her ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashleigh Barty | 1928 | 91.96% | 83.80% | 70.93% | 58.88% | 46.15% | 34.12% | 23.10% |
| 2 | Bernada Pera | 1505 | 8.04% | 3.89% | 1.35% | 0.42% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Magda Linette | 1557 | 67.15% | 9.61% | 3.97% | 1.51% | 0.48% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 4 | Chloe Paquet | 1433 | 32.85% | 2.70% | 0.71% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 5 | Irina Bara | 1458 | 41.03% | 9.63% | 1.14% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Astra Sharma | 1521 | 58.97% | 18.02% | 2.77% | 0.92% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 7 | Yulia Putintseva | 1627 | 41.10% | 27.99% | 6.44% | 3.06% | 1.25% | 0.43% | 0.13% |
| 8 | Ons Jabeur | 1690 | 58.90% | 44.36% | 12.69% | 7.14% | 3.51% | 1.51% | 0.55% |
| 9 | Coco Gauff | 1715 | 79.92% | 54.06% | 34.55% | 11.88% | 6.25% | 2.90% | 1.15% |
| 10 | Aleksandra Krunic | 1475 | 20.08% | 6.91% | 2.18% | 0.30% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Wang Qiang | 1581 | 48.31% | 18.48% | 8.40% | 1.80% | 0.63% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 12 | Hsieh Su-Wei | 1593 | 51.69% | 20.54% | 9.67% | 2.17% | 0.79% | 0.24% | 0.06% |
| 13 | Liang En-Shuo | 1503 | 37.61% | 11.76% | 3.63% | 0.57% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 14 | Fiona Ferro | 1591 | 62.39% | 26.75% | 11.24% | 2.51% | 0.90% | 0.27% | 0.07% |
| 15 | Anastasija Sevastova | 1594 | 39.09% | 21.56% | 9.16% | 2.07% | 0.75% | 0.23% | 0.06% |
| 16 | Jennifer Brady | 1671 | 60.91% | 39.94% | 21.17% | 6.30% | 2.94% | 1.19% | 0.41% |
| 17 | Karolina Pliskova | 1743 | 71.67% | 51.14% | 34.06% | 19.57% | 7.97% | 4.01% | 1.74% |
| 18 | Donna Vekic | 1582 | 28.33% | 14.08% | 6.42% | 2.31% | 0.55% | 0.16% | 0.04% |
| 19 | Carla Suarez Navarro | 1603 | 56.29% | 20.92% | 10.14% | 3.93% | 1.01% | 0.32% | 0.08% |
| 20 | Sloane Stephens | 1559 | 43.71% | 13.86% | 5.91% | 1.96% | 0.43% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 21 | Varvara Lepchenko | 1410 | 33.80% | 7.06% | 1.39% | 0.25% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 22 | Zhang Shuai | 1527 | 66.20% | 22.15% | 7.06% | 2.08% | 0.40% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 23 | Andrea Petkovic | 1531 | 27.79% | 15.58% | 5.05% | 1.51% | 0.29% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 24 | Karolina Muchova | 1697 | 72.21% | 55.22% | 29.97% | 15.37% | 5.45% | 2.39% | 0.89% |
| 25 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1658 | 63.17% | 35.29% | 15.84% | 7.78% | 2.42% | 0.94% | 0.30% |
| 26 | Venus Williams | 1564 | 36.83% | 15.89% | 5.28% | 1.94% | 0.43% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 27 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1661 | 74.81% | 41.33% | 18.71% | 9.26% | 2.91% | 1.14% | 0.37% |
| 28 | Kristyna Pliskova | 1472 | 25.19% | 7.49% | 1.75% | 0.45% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 29 | Ann Li | 1585 | 54.12% | 17.02% | 7.41% | 2.91% | 0.70% | 0.21% | 0.05% |
| 30 | Margarita Gasparyan | 1556 | 45.88% | 12.98% | 5.14% | 1.83% | 0.39% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 31 | Oceane Babel | 1500 | 17.12% | 6.83% | 2.21% | 0.64% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 32 | Elina Svitolina | 1774 | 82.88% | 63.17% | 43.67% | 28.19% | 12.54% | 6.84% | 3.25% |
| 33 | Sofia Kenin | 1702 | 57.99% | 45.75% | 28.04% | 13.21% | 6.17% | 2.29% | 0.87% |
| 34 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1646 | 42.01% | 30.69% | 16.62% | 6.62% | 2.61% | 0.80% | 0.25% |
| 35 | Hailey Baptiste | 1491 | 56.25% | 14.35% | 4.97% | 1.13% | 0.25% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 36 | Anna Blinkova | 1448 | 43.75% | 9.21% | 2.73% | 0.52% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 37 | Tereza Martincova | 1455 | 48.73% | 12.51% | 3.46% | 0.68% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 38 | Ivana Jorovic | 1464 | 51.27% | 13.62% | 3.90% | 0.79% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 39 | Zhu Lin | 1465 | 20.60% | 10.45% | 3.00% | 0.61% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 40 | Jessica Pegula | 1699 | 79.40% | 63.42% | 37.28% | 17.41% | 8.05% | 2.96% | 1.11% |
| 41 | Maria Sakkari | 1726 | 84.07% | 69.85% | 36.10% | 21.67% | 10.82% | 4.34% | 1.79% |
| 42 | Katarina Zavatska | 1437 | 15.93% | 7.75% | 1.55% | 0.37% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Jasmine Paolini | 1478 | 61.41% | 15.43% | 3.63% | 1.02% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 44 | Stefanie Vogele | 1397 | 38.59% | 6.96% | 1.18% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 45 | Heather Watson | 1490 | 45.66% | 9.31% | 2.89% | 0.85% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 46 | Zarina Diyas | 1520 | 54.34% | 12.52% | 4.30% | 1.42% | 0.35% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 47 | Storm Sanders | 1468 | 13.69% | 6.11% | 1.76% | 0.48% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 48 | Elise Mertens | 1788 | 86.31% | 72.07% | 48.60% | 32.99% | 19.19% | 9.18% | 4.54% |
| 49 | Garbine Muguruza | 1812 | 84.06% | 67.78% | 54.30% | 35.91% | 22.62% | 11.51% | 6.06% |
| 50 | Marta Kostyuk | 1523 | 15.94% | 7.06% | 3.14% | 0.91% | 0.24% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 51 | Zheng Saisai | 1538 | 43.53% | 9.88% | 4.59% | 1.41% | 0.39% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 52 | Sara Sorribes Tormo | 1583 | 56.47% | 15.29% | 8.07% | 2.91% | 0.95% | 0.23% | 0.06% |
| 53 | Lara Arruabarrena | 1485 | 53.60% | 17.96% | 3.92% | 0.98% | 0.22% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 54 | Varvara Gracheva | 1460 | 46.40% | 14.10% | 2.77% | 0.62% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 55 | Camila Giorgi | 1582 | 44.34% | 28.90% | 9.12% | 3.28% | 1.07% | 0.26% | 0.06% |
| 56 | Petra Martic | 1622 | 55.66% | 39.04% | 14.09% | 5.78% | 2.16% | 0.61% | 0.17% |
| 57 | Anett Kontaveit | 1727 | 76.39% | 58.93% | 33.12% | 17.55% | 9.05% | 3.64% | 1.50% |
| 58 | Viktorija Golubic | 1523 | 23.61% | 12.06% | 3.62% | 1.03% | 0.27% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 59 | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | 1504 | 46.84% | 12.98% | 3.62% | 0.96% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 60 | Kristina Mladenovic | 1526 | 53.16% | 16.03% | 4.87% | 1.40% | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 61 | Rebecca Peterson | 1549 | 41.81% | 12.43% | 4.72% | 1.48% | 0.42% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 62 | Shelby Rogers | 1607 | 58.19% | 21.21% | 9.61% | 3.64% | 1.30% | 0.34% | 0.09% |
| 63 | Kaja Juvan | 1504 | 19.09% | 7.43% | 2.42% | 0.64% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 64 | Iga Swiatek | 1755 | 80.91% | 58.92% | 38.03% | 21.50% | 11.91% | 5.20% | 2.34% |
| 65 | Serena Williams | 1824 | 85.08% | 74.08% | 55.51% | 37.89% | 22.24% | 13.18% | 6.94% |
| 66 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1522 | 14.92% | 8.08% | 2.88% | 0.88% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 67 | Arantxa Rus | 1495 | 50.66% | 9.12% | 2.95% | 0.82% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 68 | Mihaela Buzarnescu | 1490 | 49.34% | 8.71% | 2.77% | 0.75% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 69 | Danielle Collins | 1666 | 75.05% | 44.00% | 17.56% | 8.47% | 3.26% | 1.27% | 0.41% |
| 70 | Wang Xiyu | 1475 | 24.95% | 8.27% | 1.71% | 0.44% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 71 | Anhelina Kalinina | 1474 | 26.82% | 8.34% | 1.72% | 0.44% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 72 | Angelique Kerber | 1648 | 73.18% | 39.39% | 14.90% | 6.84% | 2.49% | 0.91% | 0.28% |
| 73 | Elena Rybakina | 1658 | 72.49% | 53.96% | 24.50% | 9.86% | 3.70% | 1.40% | 0.44% |
| 74 | Elsa Jacquemot | 1489 | 27.51% | 14.45% | 3.78% | 0.83% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 75 | Nao Hibino | 1467 | 48.63% | 15.08% | 3.62% | 0.72% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 76 | Nina Stojanovic | 1476 | 51.37% | 16.51% | 4.11% | 0.85% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 77 | Elena Vesnina | 1544 | 66.67% | 18.21% | 8.34% | 2.27% | 0.57% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 78 | Olga Govortsova | 1423 | 33.33% | 5.57% | 1.70% | 0.28% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 79 | Greet Minnen | 1474 | 15.37% | 7.03% | 2.58% | 0.53% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 80 | Petra Kvitova | 1770 | 84.63% | 69.19% | 51.36% | 28.12% | 14.55% | 7.60% | 3.46% |
| 81 | Victoria Azarenka | 1766 | 69.06% | 56.02% | 40.01% | 20.46% | 10.92% | 5.65% | 2.55% |
| 82 | Svetlana Kuznetsova | 1627 | 30.94% | 20.37% | 10.87% | 3.75% | 1.32% | 0.45% | 0.13% |
| 83 | Clara Tauson | 1530 | 55.67% | 14.12% | 5.65% | 1.39% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 84 | Ekaterine Gorgodze | 1490 | 44.33% | 9.49% | 3.30% | 0.70% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 85 | Leylah Annie Fernandez | 1565 | 50.55% | 21.60% | 7.61% | 2.13% | 0.60% | 0.16% | 0.04% |
| 86 | Anastasia Potapova | 1561 | 49.45% | 20.88% | 7.26% | 2.00% | 0.55% | 0.15% | 0.03% |
| 87 | Oceane Dodin | 1485 | 26.33% | 10.27% | 2.70% | 0.56% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 88 | Madison Keys | 1664 | 73.67% | 47.25% | 22.59% | 8.75% | 3.48% | 1.34% | 0.43% |
| 89 | Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | 1649 | 77.18% | 54.20% | 18.32% | 8.68% | 3.29% | 1.21% | 0.37% |
| 90 | Christina McHale | 1437 | 22.82% | 9.44% | 1.43% | 0.32% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Kateryna Kozlova | 1455 | 39.79% | 12.35% | 2.02% | 0.48% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 92 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1527 | 60.21% | 24.01% | 5.26% | 1.68% | 0.41% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 93 | Diane Parry | 1475 | 39.05% | 5.35% | 1.96% | 0.51% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 94 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1553 | 60.95% | 11.82% | 5.53% | 1.93% | 0.52% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 95 | Ana Konjuh | 1608 | 18.61% | 11.54% | 6.27% | 2.64% | 0.87% | 0.28% | 0.07% |
| 96 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1865 | 81.39% | 71.29% | 59.21% | 44.03% | 29.11% | 18.73% | 10.87% |
| 97 | Bianca Andreescu | 1774 | 81.49% | 65.09% | 44.01% | 30.82% | 16.17% | 7.99% | 3.68% |
| 98 | Tamara Zidansek | 1516 | 18.51% | 8.93% | 2.98% | 1.05% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 99 | Madison Brengle | 1445 | 32.76% | 5.90% | 1.48% | 0.40% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 100 | Maria Camila Osorio Serrano | 1570 | 67.24% | 20.08% | 8.07% | 3.43% | 0.97% | 0.24% | 0.05% |
| 101 | Marie Bouzkova | 1567 | 53.30% | 18.40% | 6.30% | 2.66% | 0.74% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 102 | Katerina Siniakova | 1544 | 46.70% | 14.78% | 4.67% | 1.83% | 0.47% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 103 | Amanda Anisimova | 1627 | 38.05% | 22.85% | 9.48% | 4.79% | 1.65% | 0.51% | 0.14% |
| 104 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1712 | 61.95% | 43.98% | 23.02% | 14.33% | 6.40% | 2.64% | 1.00% |
| 105 | Johanna Konta | 1626 | 49.76% | 33.42% | 16.37% | 6.69% | 2.30% | 0.70% | 0.20% |
| 106 | Sorana Cirstea | 1628 | 50.24% | 33.85% | 16.66% | 6.84% | 2.36% | 0.73% | 0.20% |
| 107 | Alison Van Uytvanck | 1532 | 62.07% | 22.80% | 8.28% | 2.44% | 0.60% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 108 | Martina Trevisan | 1447 | 37.93% | 9.93% | 2.60% | 0.54% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 109 | Daria Kasatkina | 1666 | 78.61% | 44.85% | 27.25% | 12.58% | 4.92% | 1.74% | 0.57% |
| 110 | Misaki Doi | 1440 | 21.39% | 5.81% | 1.77% | 0.36% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 111 | Nadia Podoroska | 1539 | 33.92% | 13.28% | 5.73% | 1.73% | 0.43% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 112 | Belinda Bencic | 1655 | 66.08% | 36.05% | 21.34% | 9.53% | 3.59% | 1.22% | 0.38% |
| 113 | Kiki Bertens | 1686 | 75.25% | 48.09% | 30.09% | 11.74% | 5.97% | 2.26% | 0.79% |
| 114 | Polona Hercog | 1493 | 24.75% | 9.12% | 3.28% | 0.65% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Laura Siegemund | 1577 | 47.14% | 19.52% | 9.24% | 2.52% | 0.91% | 0.23% | 0.05% |
| 116 | Caroline Garcia | 1596 | 52.86% | 23.28% | 11.67% | 3.41% | 1.32% | 0.36% | 0.09% |
| 117 | Alize Cornet | 1579 | 64.66% | 28.33% | 12.30% | 3.39% | 1.24% | 0.32% | 0.07% |
| 118 | Harmony Tan | 1474 | 35.34% | 10.58% | 3.17% | 0.59% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 119 | Kaia Kanepi | 1602 | 44.77% | 26.14% | 12.18% | 3.64% | 1.44% | 0.40% | 0.10% |
| 120 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1639 | 55.23% | 34.96% | 18.07% | 6.09% | 2.70% | 0.87% | 0.26% |
| 121 | Paula Badosa | 1657 | 73.51% | 51.49% | 16.90% | 9.29% | 4.35% | 1.49% | 0.47% |
| 122 | Lauren Davis | 1479 | 26.49% | 12.11% | 2.12% | 0.66% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Clara Burel | 1503 | 48.38% | 17.25% | 3.31% | 1.13% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 124 | Danka Kovinic | 1515 | 51.62% | 19.15% | 3.84% | 1.36% | 0.39% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 125 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto | 1479 | 51.41% | 7.06% | 2.57% | 0.80% | 0.20% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 126 | Ana Bogdan | 1470 | 48.59% | 6.39% | 2.24% | 0.67% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 127 | Patricia Maria Tig | 1521 | 11.95% | 6.77% | 2.83% | 1.03% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 128 | Naomi Osaka | 1868 | 88.05% | 79.77% | 66.20% | 53.05% | 39.15% | 24.27% | 14.19% |
