The Indian Wells tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Men's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table with percentages for all 96 players competing on how well they will do here.
 |
| Indian Wells logo, © BNP Paribas Open |
But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Daniil Medvedev is the favourite to win the title, as she has a 23.79% chance of winning the tournament, Alexander Zverev is 2nd favourite with 19.17%, Stefanos Tsitsipas 3rd with 13.74% and Andrey Rublev 4th with 6.72%.
- Overall, Medvedev has the easiest draw here, at the expense of Alexander Zverev, who has the toughest draw. Medvedev and Zverev are 4.62 percentage points more/less likely to win the tournament than expected from their rankings.
- Zachary Svajda has the easiest round 1 match relative to his ranking, as he's 17.86 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than expected. Adrian Mannarino has a tough 1st match, as he is 24.43 percentage points less likely to get to round 2 than expected.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniil Medvedev | 1914 | 100.00% | 89.17% | 77.19% | 64.55% | 53.23% | 38.22% | 23.79% |
| 2 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1559 | 53.51% | 6.13% | 2.79% | 1.14% | 0.44% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 4 | James Duckworth | 1535 | 46.49% | 4.70% | 1.98% | 0.74% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 5 | Marcos Giron | 1585 | 52.98% | 25.13% | 4.43% | 1.96% | 0.83% | 0.24% | 0.05% |
| 6 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1564 | 47.02% | 20.90% | 3.37% | 1.40% | 0.55% | 0.15% | 0.03% |
| 7 | Filip Krajinovic | 1603 | 100.00% | 53.97% | 10.24% | 4.79% | 2.14% | 0.67% | 0.16% |
| 8 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 9 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1661 | 100.00% | 67.43% | 38.39% | 10.92% | 5.76% | 2.21% | 0.65% |
| 10 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Daniel Altmaier | 1512 | 44.37% | 13.24% | 4.85% | 0.78% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 12 | Sam Querrey | 1551 | 55.63% | 19.34% | 8.09% | 1.53% | 0.58% | 0.15% | 0.03% |
| 13 | Philipp Kohlschreiber | 1546 | 66.74% | 23.69% | 9.43% | 1.74% | 0.65% | 0.16% | 0.03% |
| 14 | Taro Daniel | 1425 | 33.26% | 7.16% | 1.80% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Reilly Opelka | 1650 | 100.00% | 69.15% | 37.44% | 10.26% | 5.26% | 1.95% | 0.55% |
| 16 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 17 | Denis Shapovalov | 1667 | 100.00% | 69.10% | 42.90% | 22.90% | 7.45% | 2.92% | 0.89% |
| 18 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Vasek Pospisil | 1551 | 58.29% | 19.73% | 9.12% | 3.40% | 0.73% | 0.18% | 0.03% |
| 20 | Jeffrey John Wolf | 1493 | 41.71% | 11.18% | 4.29% | 1.29% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 21 | Salvatore Caruso | 1404 | 37.31% | 8.30% | 1.87% | 0.39% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 22 | Zachary Svajda | 1494 | 62.69% | 20.36% | 6.61% | 1.99% | 0.34% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 23 | Aslan Karatsev | 1621 | 100.00% | 71.34% | 35.21% | 16.51% | 4.58% | 1.53% | 0.39% |
| 24 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 25 | Sebastian Korda | 1631 | 100.00% | 56.95% | 26.97% | 14.01% | 4.03% | 1.39% | 0.37% |
| 26 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Benoit Paire | 1501 | 33.43% | 10.74% | 3.28% | 1.13% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 28 | Frances Tiafoe | 1621 | 66.57% | 32.31% | 14.85% | 7.50% | 2.08% | 0.69% | 0.18% |
| 29 | Alexei Popyrin | 1543 | 53.20% | 15.66% | 6.26% | 2.49% | 0.51% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 30 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1521 | 46.80% | 12.56% | 4.65% | 1.71% | 0.32% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 31 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1695 | 100.00% | 71.78% | 43.98% | 26.68% | 9.49% | 4.08% | 1.37% |
| 32 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 33 | Andrey Rublev | 1811 | 100.00% | 87.39% | 74.03% | 50.97% | 31.78% | 16.74% | 8.11% |
| 34 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Carlos Taberner | 1489 | 54.77% | 7.42% | 3.46% | 0.93% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 36 | Jaume Munar | 1456 | 45.23% | 5.18% | 2.17% | 0.51% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 37 | Tommy Paul | 1538 | 57.68% | 31.27% | 7.02% | 2.28% | 0.61% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| 38 | Feliciano Lopez | 1484 | 42.32% | 19.67% | 3.54% | 0.93% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 39 | Dusan Lajovic | 1508 | 100.00% | 49.06% | 9.78% | 2.84% | 0.67% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 40 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 41 | Cameron Norrie | 1710 | 100.00% | 78.98% | 47.24% | 21.94% | 10.69% | 4.32% | 1.53% |
| 42 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Thiago Monteiro | 1484 | 51.14% | 10.94% | 3.23% | 0.71% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 44 | Tennys Sandgren | 1476 | 48.86% | 10.08% | 2.89% | 0.62% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 45 | Kwon Soon-Woo | 1585 | 60.98% | 22.49% | 8.85% | 2.81% | 0.90% | 0.24% | 0.05% |
| 46 | Guido Pella | 1507 | 39.02% | 10.62% | 3.19% | 0.76% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 47 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1678 | 100.00% | 66.89% | 34.60% | 14.69% | 6.50% | 2.38% | 0.75% |
| 48 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 49 | Diego Schwartzman | 1701 | 100.00% | 70.04% | 35.97% | 17.27% | 7.83% | 3.08% | 1.06% |
| 50 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Maxime Cressy | 1523 | 42.49% | 11.20% | 3.15% | 0.83% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 52 | Laslo Djere | 1575 | 57.51% | 18.77% | 6.46% | 2.07% | 0.61% | 0.16% | 0.03% |
| 53 | Kei Nishikori | 1741 | 88.57% | 57.48% | 35.22% | 18.79% | 9.52% | 4.19% | 1.65% |
| 54 | Joao Sousa | 1385 | 11.43% | 2.20% | 0.40% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 55 | Daniel Evans | 1634 | 100.00% | 40.32% | 18.81% | 7.38% | 2.71% | 0.86% | 0.23% |
| 56 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 57 | Lloyd Harris | 1632 | 100.00% | 58.03% | 20.56% | 8.68% | 3.16% | 1.00% | 0.26% |
| 58 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1600 | 58.24% | 26.40% | 8.36% | 3.17% | 1.03% | 0.29% | 0.07% |
| 60 | Steve Johnson | 1542 | 41.76% | 15.57% | 3.98% | 1.22% | 0.32% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 61 | Renzo Olivo | 1457 | 44.29% | 5.84% | 1.72% | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 1497 | 55.71% | 8.94% | 3.08% | 0.79% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 63 | Casper Ruud | 1785 | 100.00% | 85.22% | 62.30% | 39.38% | 22.26% | 11.01% | 4.96% |
| 64 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 65 | Matteo Berrettini | 1825 | 100.00% | 87.55% | 70.16% | 46.27% | 23.78% | 13.84% | 7.35% |
| 66 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 67 | Denis Kudla | 1483 | 49.32% | 6.07% | 2.21% | 0.50% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 68 | Alejandro Tabilo | 1488 | 50.68% | 6.38% | 2.36% | 0.54% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 69 | Federico Coria | 1514 | 39.89% | 15.29% | 2.95% | 0.76% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 70 | Brandon Nakashima | 1586 | 60.11% | 29.08% | 7.45% | 2.53% | 0.61% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 71 | Taylor Fritz | 1597 | 100.00% | 55.62% | 14.87% | 5.25% | 1.32% | 0.39% | 0.10% |
| 72 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 73 | John Isner | 1725 | 100.00% | 74.74% | 40.29% | 18.72% | 7.33% | 3.31% | 1.33% |
| 74 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Federico Delbonis | 1554 | 55.62% | 15.10% | 4.75% | 1.26% | 0.27% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 76 | Yoshihito Nishioka | 1515 | 44.38% | 10.17% | 2.75% | 0.63% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 77 | Jack Sock | 1552 | 49.89% | 12.50% | 4.16% | 1.09% | 0.23% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 78 | John Millman | 1553 | 50.11% | 12.59% | 4.20% | 1.11% | 0.23% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 79 | Jannik Sinner | 1743 | 100.00% | 74.91% | 43.84% | 21.34% | 8.80% | 4.17% | 1.77% |
| 80 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 81 | Gael Monfils | 1668 | 100.00% | 63.12% | 34.59% | 9.82% | 3.77% | 1.42% | 0.47% |
| 82 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Marton Fucsovics | 1609 | 64.01% | 26.60% | 12.33% | 2.80% | 0.87% | 0.27% | 0.07% |
| 84 | Gianluca Mager | 1509 | 35.99% | 10.28% | 3.37% | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 85 | Kevin Anderson | 1662 | 64.42% | 34.63% | 18.56% | 5.15% | 1.94% | 0.72% | 0.23% |
| 86 | Jordan Thompson | 1559 | 35.58% | 13.91% | 5.46% | 1.01% | 0.26% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 87 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1636 | 100.00% | 51.46% | 25.69% | 6.47% | 2.22% | 0.75% | 0.22% |
| 88 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 89 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1627 | 100.00% | 45.50% | 9.34% | 4.49% | 1.49% | 0.49% | 0.14% |
| 90 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Andy Murray | 1705 | 74.32% | 45.46% | 12.69% | 7.51% | 3.25% | 1.38% | 0.52% |
| 92 | Adrian Mannarino | 1521 | 25.68% | 9.05% | 1.18% | 0.40% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 93 | Cem Ilkel | 1404 | 25.21% | 1.25% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 94 | Jenson Brooksby | 1593 | 74.79% | 10.02% | 4.16% | 1.80% | 0.53% | 0.15% | 0.04% |
| 95 | Alexander Zverev | 1917 | 100.00% | 88.73% | 72.38% | 60.01% | 42.51% | 29.56% | 19.17% |
| 96 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 97 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1717 | 100.00% | 71.52% | 49.99% | 25.38% | 11.38% | 4.19% | 1.64% |
| 98 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 99 | Albert Ramos Vinolas | 1552 | 48.49% | 13.50% | 6.44% | 1.90% | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 100 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1562 | 51.51% | 14.98% | 7.36% | 2.26% | 0.62% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 101 | Egor Gerasimov | 1543 | 68.06% | 28.66% | 9.42% | 2.68% | 0.68% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 102 | Christopher Eubanks | 1412 | 31.94% | 8.13% | 1.55% | 0.25% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 103 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1598 | 100.00% | 63.21% | 25.24% | 8.83% | 2.74% | 0.65% | 0.17% |
| 104 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 105 | Karen Khachanov | 1681 | 100.00% | 65.92% | 28.89% | 15.88% | 6.42% | 2.09% | 0.72% |
| 106 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 107 | Dominik Koepfer | 1577 | 53.48% | 19.00% | 5.93% | 2.43% | 0.70% | 0.15% | 0.04% |
| 108 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1553 | 46.52% | 15.07% | 4.31% | 1.63% | 0.43% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 109 | Facundo Bagnis | 1440 | 48.53% | 6.49% | 1.58% | 0.39% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 110 | Emilio Gomez | 1451 | 51.47% | 7.24% | 1.84% | 0.47% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 111 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1765 | 100.00% | 86.27% | 57.45% | 37.91% | 19.26% | 8.26% | 3.74% |
| 112 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 113 | Christian Garin | 1634 | 100.00% | 70.73% | 41.19% | 12.97% | 5.32% | 1.45% | 0.43% |
| 114 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Holger Rune | 1495 | 54.66% | 16.95% | 6.63% | 1.24% | 0.30% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 116 | Ernesto Escobedo | 1462 | 45.34% | 12.32% | 4.30% | 0.70% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 117 | Aleksandar Vukic | 1476 | 47.23% | 14.64% | 5.09% | 0.88% | 0.20% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 118 | Pablo Andujar | 1496 | 52.77% | 17.64% | 6.57% | 1.23% | 0.30% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 119 | Alex De Minaur | 1615 | 100.00% | 67.72% | 36.23% | 10.71% | 4.13% | 1.05% | 0.29% |
| 120 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 121 | Fabio Fognini | 1590 | 100.00% | 57.88% | 13.08% | 6.46% | 2.28% | 0.52% | 0.13% |
| 122 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Jan-Lennard Struff | 1550 | 55.16% | 24.48% | 4.72% | 2.07% | 0.63% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 124 | Daniel Elahi Galan | 1514 | 44.84% | 17.64% | 2.92% | 1.14% | 0.30% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 125 | Pedro Martinez | 1536 | 55.08% | 7.36% | 3.36% | 1.41% | 0.41% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 126 | Roberto Marcora | 1501 | 44.92% | 5.02% | 2.04% | 0.76% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 127 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1861 | 100.00% | 87.62% | 73.88% | 60.43% | 42.87% | 23.78% | 13.74% |
| 128 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
