The Indian Wells tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a look at how the 2nd week of the Women's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table with percentages for all 16 players remaining.
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| Indian Wells logo, © BNP Paribas Open |
But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Of the 4 favourites for the title, only 1 is still in. Garbine Muguruza lost in round 2 to Ajla Tomljanovic, Simona Halep lost in round 3 to Aliaksandra Sasnovich and Karolina Pliskova lost in the same round to Beatriz Haddad Maia.
- The players with the easiest and hardest overall draws, Elina Svitolina and Ons Jabeur, are both still in. Interestingly, the player with the easiest round 1 match, Claire Liu, lost her match against Anna Kalinskaya; and the player with the hardest round 1 match, Viktorija Golubic, won her match vs Marketa Vondrousova before losing in round 3 to Anna Kalinskaya.
- Ons Jabeur is now the favourite to win the title, as she has a 16.32% chance of winning the tournament, Anett Kontaveit is 2nd favourite with 12.16%, Barbora Krejcikova 3rd with 11.86% and Victoria Azarenka 4th with 11.82%.
- Overall, Ons Jabeur now has the easiest draw here, as she is 4.16 percentage points more likely to take the title than a player of her ranking would expect. On the other hand, Barbora Krejcikova now has the toughest overall draw, as she is 4.46 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than what her ranking would suggest.
- Anett Kontaveit has the easiest round 4 match relative to her ranking, as she's 16.92 percentage points more likely to make it to the quarter finals than expected. Barbora Krejcikova has a tough 4th round match, as she is 24.47 percentage points less likely to get to the next round than expected.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beatriz Haddad Maia | 1544 | 20.86% | 5.15% | 1.24% | 0.30% |
| 2 | Anett Kontaveit | 1775 | 79.14% | 41.48% | 22.38% | 12.16% |
| 3 | Ons Jabeur | 1794 | 86.69% | 50.74% | 28.67% | 16.32% |
| 4 | Anna Kalinskaya | 1468 | 13.31% | 2.63% | 0.45% | 0.08% |
| 5 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1795 | 62.22% | 38.60% | 20.78% | 11.86% |
| 6 | Paula Badosa | 1708 | 37.78% | 18.98% | 7.94% | 3.57% |
| 7 | Angelique Kerber | 1750 | 69.79% | 33.67% | 16.01% | 8.13% |
| 8 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1604 | 30.21% | 8.76% | 2.53% | 0.79% |
| 9 | Victoria Azarenka | 1778 | 73.97% | 38.27% | 22.98% | 11.82% |
| 10 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1596 | 26.03% | 7.16% | 2.52% | 0.69% |
| 11 | Jessica Pegula | 1734 | 42.27% | 21.27% | 11.51% | 5.21% |
| 12 | Elina Svitolina | 1788 | 57.73% | 33.31% | 20.48% | 10.84% |
| 13 | Shelby Rogers | 1633 | 49.08% | 17.25% | 5.67% | 1.81% |
| 14 | Leylah Fernandez | 1639 | 50.92% | 18.32% | 6.17% | 2.01% |
| 15 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1700 | 40.44% | 23.90% | 9.96% | 4.05% |
| 16 | Iga Swiatek | 1768 | 59.56% | 40.52% | 20.71% | 10.35% |
