The Indian Wells tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Women's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table with percentages for all 96 players competing on how well they will do here.
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| Indian Wells logo, © BNP Paribas Open |
But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Garbine Muguruza is the favourite to win the title, as she has a 10.27% chance of winning the tournament, Simona Halep is 2nd favourite with 9.59%, Karolina Pliskova 3rd with 7.13% and Barbora Krejcikova 4th with 6.72%.
- Overall, Elina Svitolina has the easiest draw here, as she is 1.28 percentage points more likely to take the title than a player of her ranking would expect. On the other hand, Ons Jabeur has the toughest overall draw, as she is 1.43 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than what her ranking would suggest.
- Claire Liu has the easiest round 1 match relative to her ranking, as she's 18.78 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than expected. Viktorija Golubic has a tough 1st match, as she is 25.26 percentage points less likely to get to round 2 than expected.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Pliskova | 1783 | 100.00% | 83.48% | 68.34% | 40.51% | 22.80% | 12.54% | 7.13% |
| 2 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Zheng Saisai | 1536 | 68.19% | 13.29% | 6.98% | 1.91% | 0.47% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 4 | Magdalena Frech | 1404 | 31.81% | 3.23% | 1.10% | 0.17% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 5 | Mayar Sherif | 1471 | 49.04% | 19.17% | 3.68% | 0.77% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Danka Kovinic | 1477 | 50.96% | 20.40% | 4.03% | 0.86% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 7 | Nadia Podoroska | 1548 | 100.00% | 60.43% | 15.87% | 4.53% | 1.17% | 0.29% | 0.08% |
| 8 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 9 | Anett Kontaveit | 1764 | 100.00% | 83.68% | 54.03% | 31.16% | 16.75% | 8.79% | 4.78% |
| 10 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Martina Trevisan | 1433 | 39.52% | 5.11% | 1.15% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 12 | Marie Bouzkova | 1507 | 60.48% | 11.21% | 3.42% | 0.91% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 13 | Liang En-Shuo | 1492 | 38.70% | 9.02% | 2.05% | 0.52% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 14 | Alison Riske | 1572 | 61.30% | 19.91% | 6.16% | 2.08% | 0.59% | 0.16% | 0.05% |
| 15 | Bianca Andreescu | 1699 | 100.00% | 71.07% | 33.18% | 16.35% | 7.30% | 3.17% | 1.44% |
| 16 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 17 | Ons Jabeur | 1780 | 100.00% | 79.24% | 49.71% | 29.73% | 16.69% | 9.13% | 5.16% |
| 18 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Anastasija Sevastova | 1575 | 60.78% | 14.28% | 5.11% | 1.67% | 0.49% | 0.14% | 0.04% |
| 20 | Polona Hercog | 1499 | 39.22% | 6.48% | 1.76% | 0.42% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 21 | Lauren Davis | 1495 | 51.96% | 10.74% | 2.32% | 0.55% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 22 | Nuria Parrizas Diaz | 1482 | 48.04% | 9.32% | 1.90% | 0.43% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 23 | Danielle Collins | 1729 | 100.00% | 79.94% | 39.20% | 20.73% | 10.18% | 4.84% | 2.39% |
| 24 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 25 | Sara Sorribes Tormo | 1645 | 100.00% | 74.26% | 27.39% | 10.39% | 3.94% | 1.43% | 0.54% |
| 26 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Claire Liu | 1484 | 58.00% | 16.40% | 3.14% | 0.63% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 28 | Anna Kalinskaya | 1428 | 42.00% | 9.33% | 1.37% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 29 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1702 | 70.30% | 27.84% | 17.71% | 8.05% | 3.65% | 1.60% | 0.73% |
| 30 | Viktorija Golubic | 1552 | 29.70% | 6.45% | 2.80% | 0.75% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 31 | Maria Sakkari | 1775 | 100.00% | 65.71% | 47.59% | 26.44% | 14.66% | 7.91% | 4.42% |
| 32 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 33 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1786 | 100.00% | 84.83% | 59.15% | 37.74% | 21.28% | 11.73% | 6.72% |
| 34 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Nao Hibino | 1443 | 40.20% | 4.91% | 1.23% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 36 | Zarina Diyas | 1512 | 59.80% | 10.26% | 3.39% | 0.94% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 37 | Amanda Anisimova | 1607 | 65.72% | 26.93% | 8.72% | 3.44% | 1.13% | 0.35% | 0.12% |
| 38 | Katrina Scott | 1494 | 34.28% | 9.12% | 1.92% | 0.49% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 39 | Camila Giorgi | 1671 | 100.00% | 63.95% | 25.60% | 12.31% | 5.03% | 1.97% | 0.81% |
| 40 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 41 | Paula Badosa | 1690 | 100.00% | 68.71% | 34.86% | 15.84% | 6.88% | 2.87% | 1.26% |
| 42 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Elsa Jacquemot | 1484 | 35.52% | 8.31% | 2.10% | 0.45% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 44 | Dayana Yastremska | 1587 | 64.48% | 22.99% | 8.54% | 2.76% | 0.84% | 0.24% | 0.07% |
| 45 | Caroline Garcia | 1550 | 61.35% | 16.10% | 5.86% | 1.64% | 0.43% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 46 | Kirsten Flipkens | 1470 | 38.65% | 7.08% | 1.90% | 0.38% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 47 | Coco Gauff | 1729 | 100.00% | 76.82% | 46.75% | 23.73% | 11.57% | 5.46% | 2.70% |
| 48 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 49 | Angelique Kerber | 1734 | 100.00% | 70.46% | 42.94% | 21.29% | 11.03% | 5.28% | 2.65% |
| 50 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Katerina Siniakova | 1621 | 69.59% | 23.89% | 10.88% | 3.86% | 1.41% | 0.46% | 0.16% |
| 52 | Kim Clijsters | 1477 | 30.41% | 5.65% | 1.55% | 0.32% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 53 | Donna Vekic | 1567 | 59.55% | 19.12% | 6.33% | 1.86% | 0.56% | 0.15% | 0.04% |
| 54 | Astra Sharma | 1500 | 40.45% | 9.83% | 2.50% | 0.57% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 55 | Daria Kasatkina | 1697 | 100.00% | 71.04% | 35.80% | 16.05% | 7.49% | 3.20% | 1.44% |
| 56 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 57 | Tamara Zidansek | 1582 | 100.00% | 54.92% | 14.52% | 5.15% | 1.63% | 0.46% | 0.14% |
| 58 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | 1498 | 38.66% | 14.74% | 2.77% | 0.71% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 60 | Ana Konjuh | 1578 | 61.34% | 30.33% | 7.90% | 2.77% | 0.86% | 0.24% | 0.07% |
| 61 | Usue Maitane Arconada | 1458 | 34.17% | 3.86% | 1.34% | 0.29% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1572 | 65.83% | 12.96% | 6.54% | 2.24% | 0.68% | 0.18% | 0.05% |
| 63 | Garbine Muguruza | 1816 | 100.00% | 83.18% | 66.93% | 44.89% | 28.24% | 16.74% | 10.27% |
| 64 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 65 | Petra Kvitova | 1729 | 100.00% | 80.80% | 41.67% | 20.87% | 10.82% | 6.04% | 2.77% |
| 66 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 67 | Arantxa Rus | 1461 | 45.28% | 7.97% | 1.58% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 68 | Alycia Parks | 1494 | 54.72% | 11.23% | 2.56% | 0.59% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 69 | Magda Linette | 1591 | 54.96% | 14.90% | 5.62% | 1.85% | 0.62% | 0.23% | 0.06% |
| 70 | Rebecca Peterson | 1557 | 45.04% | 10.52% | 3.53% | 1.03% | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 71 | Victoria Azarenka | 1763 | 100.00% | 74.59% | 45.05% | 24.55% | 13.87% | 8.39% | 4.25% |
| 72 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 73 | Emma Raducanu | 1592 | 100.00% | 56.13% | 15.99% | 5.23% | 1.76% | 0.65% | 0.18% |
| 74 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Maria Camila Osorio Serrano | 1536 | 46.42% | 19.49% | 4.46% | 1.17% | 0.32% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 76 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1560 | 53.58% | 24.38% | 6.16% | 1.79% | 0.53% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 77 | Marta Kostyuk | 1539 | 51.68% | 9.07% | 4.10% | 1.09% | 0.30% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 78 | Zhang Shuai | 1528 | 48.32% | 8.02% | 3.49% | 0.89% | 0.23% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 79 | Simona Halep | 1808 | 100.00% | 82.90% | 65.80% | 40.62% | 25.39% | 16.84% | 9.59% |
| 80 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 81 | Elise Mertens | 1722 | 100.00% | 75.36% | 41.88% | 22.21% | 10.29% | 5.64% | 2.53% |
| 82 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Mai Hontama | 1537 | 52.98% | 13.60% | 4.23% | 1.26% | 0.30% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 84 | Jasmine Paolini | 1516 | 47.02% | 11.04% | 3.17% | 0.87% | 0.19% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 85 | Sloane Stephens | 1604 | 68.14% | 22.86% | 9.21% | 3.47% | 1.08% | 0.42% | 0.12% |
| 86 | Heather Watson | 1471 | 31.86% | 6.08% | 1.51% | 0.35% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 87 | Jessica Pegula | 1722 | 100.00% | 71.05% | 40.01% | 21.24% | 9.85% | 5.41% | 2.43% |
| 88 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 89 | Sorana Cirstea | 1600 | 100.00% | 60.81% | 19.92% | 7.40% | 2.28% | 0.87% | 0.25% |
| 90 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Ann Li | 1562 | 67.39% | 30.05% | 8.56% | 2.78% | 0.74% | 0.24% | 0.06% |
| 92 | Misaki Doi | 1436 | 32.61% | 9.14% | 1.54% | 0.30% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 93 | Tereza Martincova | 1577 | 62.27% | 14.89% | 7.50% | 2.57% | 0.72% | 0.25% | 0.07% |
| 94 | Ashlyn Krueger | 1490 | 37.73% | 6.04% | 2.31% | 0.56% | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 95 | Elina Svitolina | 1778 | 100.00% | 79.07% | 60.16% | 37.00% | 20.00% | 12.49% | 6.60% |
| 96 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 97 | Belinda Bencic | 1722 | 100.00% | 69.50% | 46.89% | 29.32% | 15.67% | 7.26% | 3.26% |
| 98 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 99 | Shelby Rogers | 1611 | 63.10% | 21.80% | 11.42% | 5.37% | 2.05% | 0.65% | 0.20% |
| 100 | Anhelina Kalinina | 1518 | 36.90% | 8.70% | 3.42% | 1.17% | 0.32% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 101 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1551 | 49.61% | 19.82% | 6.48% | 2.51% | 0.77% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 102 | Fiona Ferro | 1554 | 50.39% | 20.32% | 6.71% | 2.63% | 0.81% | 0.21% | 0.05% |
| 103 | Jil Teichmann | 1622 | 100.00% | 59.87% | 25.07% | 12.18% | 4.83% | 1.60% | 0.51% |
| 104 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 105 | Leylah Fernandez | 1618 | 100.00% | 55.61% | 25.34% | 11.37% | 4.45% | 1.45% | 0.45% |
| 106 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 107 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse | 1550 | 42.84% | 17.28% | 6.27% | 2.25% | 0.69% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 108 | Alize Cornet | 1600 | 57.16% | 27.11% | 11.68% | 4.96% | 1.82% | 0.56% | 0.16% |
| 109 | Kaia Kanepi | 1571 | 42.86% | 14.97% | 6.84% | 2.64% | 0.87% | 0.24% | 0.06% |
| 110 | Madison Keys | 1621 | 57.14% | 23.85% | 12.60% | 5.71% | 2.26% | 0.75% | 0.24% |
| 111 | Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | 1679 | 100.00% | 61.18% | 37.29% | 19.89% | 9.45% | 3.83% | 1.49% |
| 112 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 113 | Elena Rybakina | 1726 | 100.00% | 64.38% | 39.49% | 21.77% | 13.10% | 6.14% | 2.79% |
| 114 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Andrea Petkovic | 1598 | 43.69% | 14.14% | 6.20% | 2.35% | 1.00% | 0.30% | 0.09% |
| 116 | Yulia Putintseva | 1642 | 56.31% | 21.48% | 10.72% | 4.69% | 2.27% | 0.81% | 0.28% |
| 117 | Madison Brengle | 1443 | 33.42% | 6.68% | 1.33% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 118 | Hsieh Su-Wei | 1563 | 66.58% | 22.13% | 7.26% | 2.43% | 0.92% | 0.24% | 0.06% |
| 119 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1684 | 100.00% | 71.19% | 35.00% | 17.30% | 9.41% | 3.88% | 1.54% |
| 120 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 121 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1643 | 100.00% | 61.90% | 25.27% | 11.35% | 5.52% | 1.98% | 0.68% |
| 122 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Kateryna Kozlova | 1496 | 36.50% | 10.96% | 2.62% | 0.69% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 124 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1593 | 63.50% | 27.14% | 9.35% | 3.55% | 1.48% | 0.44% | 0.12% |
| 125 | Katie Volynets | 1440 | 32.84% | 4.60% | 1.25% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 126 | Petra Martic | 1565 | 67.16% | 16.79% | 7.23% | 2.49% | 0.94% | 0.25% | 0.06% |
| 127 | Iga Swiatek | 1755 | 100.00% | 78.61% | 54.28% | 32.84% | 21.03% | 10.72% | 5.32% |
| 128 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
