The 2nd round of the US Open has finished, so let's take a look at how that affected my rankings of the players still in and also how well I expect them to do for the rest of the tournament.
Yes, this update is 1 day late and half of these round 3 matches have already finished, sorry!
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View my pre-tournament predictions for the Men and the Women here, but before the latest rankings, some stats I calculated for the top 150 players:
| Rank | ± Men | ± Wmn |
|---|---|---|
| 1-10 | 21 | 3 |
| 11-20 | -13 | -10 |
| 21-50 | 88 | 75 |
| 51-100 | -69 | -81 |
| 101-150 | -59 | 5 |
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Now, my latest Men's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniil Medvedev | 1888 | 90.94% | 57.41% | 42.90% | 28.90% | 13.88% |
| 2 | Wu Yibing | 1487 | 9.06% | 1.54% | 0.36% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 3 | Nick Kyrgios | 1830 | 83.28% | 38.24% | 26.00% | 15.61% | 6.36% |
| 4 | Jeffrey John Wolf | 1551 | 16.72% | 2.81% | 0.85% | 0.21% | 0.03% |
| 5 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1732 | 53.29% | 32.00% | 10.84% | 5.08% | 1.49% |
| 6 | Alex De Minaur | 1709 | 46.71% | 26.57% | 8.26% | 3.62% | 0.98% |
| 7 | Karen Khachanov | 1685 | 58.13% | 26.00% | 7.35% | 2.98% | 0.73% |
| 8 | Jack Draper | 1628 | 41.87% | 15.42% | 3.45% | 1.15% | 0.22% |
| 9 | Daniel Elahi Galan | 1541 | 39.44% | 8.40% | 2.30% | 0.42% | 0.06% |
| 10 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1615 | 60.56% | 17.67% | 6.31% | 1.60% | 0.29% |
| 11 | Andy Murray | 1700 | 34.57% | 22.71% | 10.53% | 3.68% | 0.96% |
| 12 | Matteo Berrettini | 1811 | 65.43% | 51.22% | 31.15% | 15.42% | 5.92% |
| 13 | Pedro Cachin | 1507 | 42.96% | 7.96% | 1.84% | 0.29% | 0.03% |
| 14 | Corentin Moutet | 1556 | 57.04% | 13.17% | 3.72% | 0.73% | 0.10% |
| 15 | Tommy Paul | 1685 | 32.61% | 22.93% | 10.11% | 3.35% | 0.83% |
| 16 | Casper Ruud | 1812 | 67.39% | 55.94% | 34.04% | 16.89% | 6.50% |
| 17 | Ilya Ivashka | 1647 | 56.21% | 19.05% | 6.25% | 1.25% | 0.36% |
| 18 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1603 | 43.79% | 12.63% | 3.51% | 0.58% | 0.14% |
| 19 | Brandon Nakashima | 1619 | 24.41% | 11.91% | 3.53% | 0.63% | 0.16% |
| 20 | Jannik Sinner | 1816 | 75.59% | 56.41% | 31.00% | 11.44% | 5.84% |
| 21 | Marin Cilic | 1733 | 65.06% | 26.24% | 13.08% | 3.65% | 1.45% |
| 22 | Daniel Evans | 1625 | 34.94% | 9.58% | 3.43% | 0.63% | 0.17% |
| 23 | Jenson Brooksby | 1641 | 22.99% | 9.75% | 3.69% | 0.72% | 0.21% |
| 24 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1851 | 77.01% | 54.43% | 35.52% | 14.60% | 8.17% |
| 25 | Cameron Norrie | 1798 | 79.67% | 47.78% | 15.25% | 7.97% | 3.87% |
| 26 | Holger Rune | 1560 | 20.33% | 5.78% | 0.74% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 27 | Denis Shapovalov | 1638 | 32.37% | 11.38% | 2.03% | 0.64% | 0.18% |
| 28 | Andrey Rublev | 1766 | 67.63% | 35.05% | 10.07% | 4.83% | 2.14% |
| 29 | Diego Schwartzman | 1686 | 54.12% | 9.51% | 3.84% | 1.44% | 0.49% |
| 30 | Frances Tiafoe | 1658 | 45.88% | 7.15% | 2.62% | 0.89% | 0.27% |
| 31 | Richard Gasquet | 1620 | 9.43% | 4.00% | 1.28% | 0.38% | 0.10% |
| 32 | Rafael Nadal | 2013 | 90.57% | 79.34% | 64.17% | 50.19% | 38.01% |
And my latest Women's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iga Swiatek | 1908 | 90.01% | 78.37% | 56.55% | 41.27% | 29.14% |
| 2 | Lauren Davis | 1526 | 9.99% | 4.29% | 1.00% | 0.23% | 0.05% |
| 3 | Jule Niemeier | 1550 | 43.62% | 6.78% | 1.74% | 0.46% | 0.11% |
| 4 | Zheng Qinwen | 1595 | 56.38% | 10.56% | 3.25% | 1.02% | 0.30% |
| 5 | Garbine Muguruza | 1692 | 44.15% | 19.50% | 6.25% | 2.76% | 1.15% |
| 6 | Petra Kvitova | 1733 | 55.85% | 27.68% | 10.11% | 5.05% | 2.40% |
| 7 | Yuan Yue | 1480 | 15.43% | 3.19% | 0.46% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 8 | Jessica Pegula | 1776 | 84.57% | 49.63% | 20.64% | 11.56% | 6.18% |
| 9 | Petra Martic | 1647 | 36.33% | 13.37% | 5.32% | 1.46% | 0.53% |
| 10 | Victoria Azarenka | 1745 | 63.67% | 32.14% | 17.11% | 6.65% | 3.27% |
| 11 | Karolina Pliskova | 1718 | 44.11% | 22.62% | 11.21% | 3.99% | 1.82% |
| 12 | Belinda Bencic | 1760 | 55.89% | 31.87% | 17.62% | 7.18% | 3.68% |
| 13 | Alize Cornet | 1637 | 37.46% | 14.71% | 5.44% | 1.44% | 0.50% |
| 14 | Danielle Collins | 1726 | 62.54% | 31.87% | 15.73% | 5.75% | 2.68% |
| 15 | Clara Burel | 1502 | 18.27% | 4.62% | 0.99% | 0.15% | 0.03% |
| 16 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1762 | 81.73% | 48.80% | 26.59% | 10.93% | 5.63% |
| 17 | Rebecca Marino | 1532 | 37.40% | 8.43% | 2.40% | 0.53% | 0.10% |
| 18 | Zhang Shuai | 1622 | 62.60% | 20.45% | 8.10% | 2.57% | 0.69% |
| 19 | Madison Keys | 1710 | 40.83% | 27.21% | 14.12% | 6.09% | 2.26% |
| 20 | Coco Gauff | 1775 | 59.17% | 43.92% | 26.69% | 13.89% | 6.32% |
| 21 | Bianca Andreescu | 1725 | 47.97% | 31.05% | 16.30% | 7.36% | 2.86% |
| 22 | Caroline Garcia | 1739 | 52.03% | 34.61% | 18.84% | 8.87% | 3.61% |
| 23 | Alison Riske-Amritraj | 1655 | 65.64% | 25.69% | 11.05% | 3.97% | 1.21% |
| 24 | Wang Xiyu | 1543 | 34.36% | 8.65% | 2.50% | 0.58% | 0.11% |
| 25 | Ons Jabeur | 1835 | 70.99% | 47.70% | 31.97% | 21.21% | 11.38% |
| 26 | Shelby Rogers | 1680 | 29.01% | 13.59% | 6.28% | 2.84% | 0.94% |
| 27 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1747 | 81.58% | 35.81% | 19.84% | 10.82% | 4.52% |
| 28 | Dalma Galfi | 1488 | 18.42% | 2.89% | 0.66% | 0.15% | 0.02% |
| 29 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1668 | 67.96% | 27.38% | 9.81% | 4.28% | 1.37% |
| 30 | Aleksandra Krunic | 1538 | 32.04% | 7.82% | 1.67% | 0.45% | 0.08% |
| 31 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1666 | 34.65% | 19.21% | 6.83% | 2.96% | 0.94% |
| 32 | Serena Williams | 1776 | 65.35% | 45.59% | 22.94% | 13.44% | 6.14% |
