The 3rd round of the US Open has finished, so let's take a look at how that affected my rankings of the players still in and also how well I expect them to do for the rest of the tournament.
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View my pre-tournament predictions for the Men and the Women here, but before the latest rankings, some stats I calculated for the top 150 players:
| Rank | ± Men | ± Wmn |
|---|---|---|
| 1-10 | 50 | 13 |
| 11-20 | 15 | 6 |
| 21-50 | 48 | 75 |
| 51-100 | -72 | -94 |
| 101-150 | -59 | -1 |
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Now, my latest Men's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniil Medvedev | 1889 | 58.03% | 42.05% | 26.52% | 12.26% |
| 2 | Nick Kyrgios | 1833 | 41.97% | 27.52% | 15.27% | 5.96% |
| 3 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1742 | 56.93% | 18.75% | 8.03% | 2.27% |
| 4 | Karen Khachanov | 1693 | 43.07% | 11.68% | 4.26% | 0.99% |
| 5 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1623 | 24.61% | 7.61% | 1.88% | 0.33% |
| 6 | Matteo Berrettini | 1818 | 75.39% | 42.08% | 20.67% | 7.67% |
| 7 | Corentin Moutet | 1565 | 18.87% | 4.62% | 0.89% | 0.12% |
| 8 | Casper Ruud | 1818 | 81.13% | 45.69% | 22.47% | 8.35% |
| 9 | Ilya Ivashka | 1655 | 27.88% | 8.02% | 1.46% | 0.41% |
| 10 | Jannik Sinner | 1821 | 72.12% | 36.44% | 12.56% | 6.24% |
| 11 | Marin Cilic | 1740 | 33.91% | 15.29% | 3.93% | 1.52% |
| 12 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1856 | 66.09% | 40.25% | 15.57% | 8.51% |
| 13 | Cameron Norrie | 1802 | 54.15% | 15.23% | 7.44% | 3.50% |
| 14 | Andrey Rublev | 1773 | 45.85% | 11.57% | 5.19% | 2.23% |
| 15 | Frances Tiafoe | 1668 | 11.97% | 4.00% | 1.25% | 0.37% |
| 16 | Rafael Nadal | 2015 | 88.03% | 69.20% | 52.61% | 39.28% |
And my latest Women's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iga Swiatek | 1910 | 88.13% | 61.69% | 44.29% | 30.65% |
| 2 | Jule Niemeier | 1562 | 11.87% | 2.85% | 0.73% | 0.18% |
| 3 | Petra Kvitova | 1742 | 44.64% | 14.74% | 7.25% | 3.39% |
| 4 | Jessica Pegula | 1779 | 55.36% | 20.73% | 11.31% | 5.88% |
| 5 | Victoria Azarenka | 1752 | 53.21% | 26.66% | 9.87% | 4.76% |
| 6 | Karolina Pliskova | 1730 | 46.79% | 21.94% | 7.51% | 3.39% |
| 7 | Danielle Collins | 1734 | 45.37% | 22.17% | 7.70% | 3.51% |
| 8 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1766 | 54.63% | 29.22% | 11.34% | 5.68% |
| 9 | Zhang Shuai | 1629 | 29.22% | 11.09% | 3.52% | 0.91% |
| 10 | Coco Gauff | 1783 | 70.78% | 42.04% | 21.89% | 9.80% |
| 11 | Caroline Garcia | 1748 | 62.17% | 31.91% | 15.10% | 6.07% |
| 12 | Alison Riske-Amritraj | 1662 | 37.83% | 14.97% | 5.36% | 1.58% |
| 13 | Ons Jabeur | 1841 | 62.77% | 45.20% | 29.02% | 15.29% |
| 14 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1750 | 37.23% | 22.49% | 11.66% | 4.72% |
| 15 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1675 | 49.37% | 15.82% | 6.54% | 2.02% |
| 16 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1679 | 50.63% | 16.49% | 6.91% | 2.18% |
