Tomorrow, the 3rd Grand Slam tournament of the year, Wimbledon, begins. Let's take a look at the draw for this tournament, and my predictions for the tournament, including who's most likely to win, and full probabilities for how likely each player is to make it to each round.
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- Novak Djokovic is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 40.82% chance of winning the whole thing, with Carlos Alcaraz next at 17.52%. The 3rd most likely is Daniil Medvedev with 11.67% and Jannik Sinner is the 4th favourite with 3.76%
- Sinner has the easiest overall draw, as he is 1.32 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Alexander Zverev has a tough draw. He is 1.09 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Jeremy Chardy, as he's 45.52 percentage points less likely to win than a player of his rank is expected to win. Borna Gojo got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's 39.08 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than his ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1967 | 89.91% | 83.11% | 74.64% | 57.07% | 44.78% | 31.70% | 17.52% |
| 2 | Jeremy Chardy | 1587 | 10.09% | 5.83% | 2.99% | 0.87% | 0.28% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 3 | Alexandre Muller | 1523 | 47.54% | 5.04% | 2.14% | 0.48% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Arthur Rinderknech | 1540 | 52.46% | 6.01% | 2.69% | 0.65% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 5 | Jason Kubler | 1512 | 49.63% | 18.32% | 2.41% | 0.52% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Ugo Humbert | 1515 | 50.37% | 18.76% | 2.50% | 0.54% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Marco Cecchinato | 1515 | 31.40% | 15.75% | 2.09% | 0.45% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Nicolas Jarry | 1650 | 68.60% | 47.16% | 10.54% | 3.85% | 1.53% | 0.48% | 0.10% |
| 9 | Alexander Zverev | 1824 | 83.63% | 72.87% | 48.73% | 20.89% | 13.06% | 6.95% | 2.67% |
| 10 | Gijs Brouwer | 1540 | 16.37% | 9.34% | 2.72% | 0.47% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Marc-Andrea Husler | 1474 | 45.53% | 7.51% | 1.66% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 12 | Yosuke Watanuki | 1505 | 54.47% | 10.29% | 2.60% | 0.39% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Matteo Berrettini | 1732 | 66.69% | 38.66% | 18.65% | 6.15% | 3.10% | 1.28% | 0.37% |
| 14 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1611 | 33.31% | 13.99% | 4.76% | 1.06% | 0.37% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 15 | Kimmer Coppejans | 1426 | 16.13% | 2.96% | 0.51% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 16 | Alex De Minaur | 1713 | 83.87% | 44.39% | 20.37% | 6.34% | 3.04% | 1.19% | 0.32% |
| 17 | Frances Tiafoe | 1735 | 75.96% | 58.79% | 36.85% | 19.09% | 6.28% | 2.63% | 0.76% |
| 18 | Wu Yibing | 1536 | 24.04% | 12.51% | 4.57% | 1.27% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 19 | Dominic Stricker | 1531 | 52.83% | 15.71% | 5.65% | 1.54% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 20 | Alexei Popyrin | 1511 | 47.17% | 12.99% | 4.36% | 1.11% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 21 | Ilya Ivashka | 1564 | 60.71% | 21.84% | 8.47% | 2.61% | 0.44% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 22 | Federico Coria | 1488 | 39.29% | 10.71% | 3.19% | 0.74% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 23 | Sho Shimabukuro | 1489 | 21.29% | 9.30% | 2.78% | 0.65% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 24 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1717 | 78.71% | 58.15% | 34.13% | 16.86% | 5.20% | 2.05% | 0.56% |
| 25 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1630 | 55.09% | 32.49% | 11.56% | 5.15% | 1.15% | 0.34% | 0.07% |
| 26 | Arthur Fils | 1595 | 44.91% | 24.26% | 7.67% | 3.06% | 0.59% | 0.15% | 0.03% |
| 27 | Zhang Zhizhen | 1533 | 41.63% | 16.01% | 4.05% | 1.30% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 28 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1591 | 58.37% | 27.24% | 8.51% | 3.35% | 0.64% | 0.16% | 0.03% |
| 29 | Matteo Arnaldi | 1514 | 44.48% | 8.71% | 3.36% | 1.01% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 30 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 1553 | 55.52% | 12.70% | 5.58% | 1.93% | 0.31% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 31 | George Loffhagen | 1490 | 12.87% | 5.59% | 1.97% | 0.54% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 32 | Holger Rune | 1822 | 87.13% | 73.00% | 57.28% | 39.77% | 17.17% | 9.11% | 3.48% |
| 33 | Daniil Medvedev | 1915 | 91.61% | 79.90% | 69.06% | 54.91% | 41.29% | 23.83% | 11.69% |
| 34 | Arthur Fery | 1500 | 8.39% | 3.29% | 1.25% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Adrian Mannarino | 1612 | 63.51% | 12.15% | 6.48% | 2.68% | 0.99% | 0.22% | 0.04% |
| 36 | Alexander Shevchenko | 1516 | 36.49% | 4.65% | 1.86% | 0.54% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 37 | Marcos Giron | 1554 | 66.74% | 26.96% | 4.97% | 1.68% | 0.50% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 38 | Hugo Dellien | 1433 | 33.26% | 8.40% | 0.92% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 39 | Marton Fucsovics | 1617 | 48.71% | 31.19% | 7.33% | 3.08% | 1.16% | 0.26% | 0.05% |
| 40 | Tallon Griekspoor | 1626 | 51.29% | 33.44% | 8.13% | 3.52% | 1.36% | 0.32% | 0.06% |
| 41 | Francisco Cerundolo | 1702 | 76.53% | 51.22% | 27.15% | 9.72% | 4.73% | 1.48% | 0.38% |
| 42 | Nuno Borges | 1497 | 23.47% | 9.01% | 2.41% | 0.41% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Jiri Lehecka | 1598 | 56.25% | 23.75% | 9.22% | 2.34% | 0.82% | 0.17% | 0.03% |
| 44 | Sebastian Ofner | 1555 | 43.75% | 16.01% | 5.34% | 1.15% | 0.35% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 45 | Milos Raonic | 1714 | 85.78% | 51.92% | 31.48% | 11.69% | 5.88% | 1.91% | 0.52% |
| 46 | Dennis Novak | 1402 | 14.22% | 3.16% | 0.68% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 47 | Shintaro Mochizuki | 1459 | 21.75% | 5.28% | 1.44% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 48 | Tommy Paul | 1681 | 78.25% | 39.65% | 22.28% | 7.47% | 3.43% | 0.99% | 0.24% |
| 49 | Cameron Norrie | 1730 | 79.12% | 61.99% | 37.09% | 20.75% | 8.47% | 2.91% | 0.83% |
| 50 | Tomas Machac | 1498 | 20.88% | 10.23% | 3.16% | 0.87% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Christopher Eubanks | 1526 | 56.95% | 17.08% | 5.82% | 1.78% | 0.35% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 52 | Thiago Monteiro | 1478 | 43.05% | 10.69% | 3.06% | 0.78% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 53 | Christopher O'Connell | 1533 | 60.98% | 18.28% | 6.51% | 2.04% | 0.41% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 54 | Hamad Mededovic | 1455 | 39.02% | 8.61% | 2.31% | 0.54% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 55 | Jiri Vesely | 1497 | 20.15% | 9.92% | 3.12% | 0.86% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 56 | Sebastian Korda | 1736 | 79.85% | 63.18% | 38.93% | 22.11% | 9.20% | 3.22% | 0.94% |
| 57 | Ben Shelton | 1497 | 44.44% | 18.41% | 4.22% | 1.15% | 0.20% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 58 | Taro Daniel | 1536 | 55.56% | 26.05% | 7.00% | 2.20% | 0.45% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 59 | Maxime Cressy | 1515 | 39.92% | 19.76% | 4.88% | 1.42% | 0.27% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 60 | Laslo Djere | 1586 | 60.08% | 35.79% | 11.64% | 4.36% | 1.09% | 0.22% | 0.04% |
| 61 | Ryan Peniston | 1518 | 32.74% | 6.88% | 3.20% | 0.94% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Andy Murray | 1643 | 67.26% | 23.31% | 14.91% | 6.67% | 2.05% | 0.51% | 0.11% |
| 63 | Dominic Thiem | 1636 | 27.65% | 15.13% | 9.54% | 4.19% | 1.26% | 0.31% | 0.06% |
| 64 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1803 | 72.35% | 54.68% | 44.61% | 29.37% | 14.66% | 6.34% | 2.29% |
| 65 | Jannik Sinner | 1803 | 85.19% | 67.00% | 56.17% | 40.08% | 27.02% | 8.95% | 3.76% |
| 66 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 1499 | 14.81% | 5.78% | 2.79% | 0.90% | 0.26% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 67 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1589 | 53.82% | 15.33% | 9.30% | 4.06% | 1.60% | 0.24% | 0.05% |
| 68 | Diego Schwartzman | 1562 | 46.18% | 11.89% | 6.78% | 2.72% | 0.98% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 69 | Aleksandar Vukic | 1479 | 53.79% | 22.54% | 4.87% | 1.45% | 0.39% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 70 | Daniel Altmaier | 1453 | 46.21% | 17.70% | 3.42% | 0.92% | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 71 | Quentin Halys | 1476 | 36.55% | 18.75% | 4.00% | 1.18% | 0.31% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 72 | Daniel Evans | 1572 | 63.45% | 41.01% | 12.67% | 5.24% | 1.96% | 0.27% | 0.05% |
| 73 | Yoshihito Nishioka | 1617 | 71.74% | 47.18% | 20.60% | 8.43% | 3.65% | 0.61% | 0.13% |
| 74 | Daniel Elahi Galan | 1455 | 28.26% | 12.18% | 2.93% | 0.68% | 0.17% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Dominik Koepfer | 1518 | 54.51% | 23.18% | 7.17% | 2.12% | 0.66% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 76 | Oscar Otte | 1486 | 45.49% | 17.45% | 4.77% | 1.26% | 0.35% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 77 | Mikael Ymer | 1544 | 40.85% | 12.12% | 5.93% | 1.92% | 0.65% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 78 | Alex Molcan | 1608 | 59.15% | 22.30% | 12.90% | 5.14% | 2.17% | 0.35% | 0.07% |
| 79 | Yannick Hanfmann | 1619 | 33.61% | 18.56% | 11.00% | 4.52% | 1.97% | 0.33% | 0.07% |
| 80 | Taylor Fritz | 1737 | 66.39% | 47.01% | 34.70% | 19.37% | 11.47% | 3.05% | 1.03% |
| 81 | Borna Coric | 1649 | 70.93% | 45.63% | 26.76% | 12.24% | 5.33% | 1.02% | 0.25% |
| 82 | Guido Pella | 1494 | 29.07% | 12.47% | 4.63% | 1.26% | 0.32% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Benjamin Bonzi | 1581 | 63.88% | 29.78% | 14.61% | 5.42% | 1.90% | 0.27% | 0.05% |
| 84 | Harold Mayot | 1482 | 36.12% | 12.13% | 4.31% | 1.12% | 0.27% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 85 | Corentin Moutet | 1548 | 47.78% | 20.20% | 8.93% | 2.96% | 0.92% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 86 | Richard Gasquet | 1563 | 52.22% | 23.19% | 10.74% | 3.75% | 1.24% | 0.17% | 0.03% |
| 87 | Roman Safiullin | 1520 | 32.90% | 14.76% | 5.96% | 1.79% | 0.50% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 88 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1644 | 67.10% | 41.85% | 24.05% | 10.82% | 4.63% | 0.87% | 0.21% |
| 89 | Denis Shapovalov | 1642 | 69.02% | 43.05% | 18.45% | 10.37% | 4.42% | 0.82% | 0.19% |
| 90 | Radu Albot | 1503 | 30.98% | 13.22% | 3.60% | 1.33% | 0.35% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Lloyd Harris | 1558 | 51.06% | 22.58% | 7.45% | 3.31% | 1.07% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| 92 | Gregoire Barrere | 1550 | 48.94% | 21.15% | 6.81% | 2.96% | 0.93% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 93 | Liam Broady | 1495 | 52.69% | 11.65% | 4.38% | 1.58% | 0.40% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 94 | Constant Lestienne | 1476 | 47.31% | 9.70% | 3.41% | 1.14% | 0.27% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 95 | Laurent Lokoli | 1445 | 13.15% | 5.80% | 1.81% | 0.54% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 96 | Casper Ruud | 1773 | 86.85% | 72.85% | 54.09% | 39.41% | 23.50% | 7.06% | 2.70% |
| 97 | Andrey Rublev | 1811 | 87.38% | 73.31% | 44.54% | 32.17% | 10.36% | 6.52% | 2.80% |
| 98 | Max Purcell | 1474 | 12.62% | 5.46% | 1.20% | 0.35% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 99 | Luca Van Assche | 1489 | 41.82% | 7.71% | 1.79% | 0.56% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 100 | Aslan Karatsev | 1546 | 58.18% | 13.53% | 3.90% | 1.48% | 0.19% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 101 | Sebastian Baez | 1555 | 62.30% | 15.51% | 4.42% | 1.73% | 0.23% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 102 | Tomas Barrios Vera | 1467 | 37.70% | 6.52% | 1.34% | 0.38% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 103 | David Goffin | 1538 | 17.59% | 9.20% | 2.47% | 0.91% | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 104 | Nick Kyrgios | 1806 | 82.41% | 68.77% | 40.34% | 28.94% | 9.20% | 5.74% | 2.44% |
| 105 | Alexander Bublik | 1639 | 55.84% | 35.12% | 18.03% | 5.98% | 1.09% | 0.44% | 0.10% |
| 106 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1599 | 44.16% | 25.33% | 11.69% | 3.34% | 0.52% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 107 | J. J. Wolf | 1580 | 62.69% | 27.62% | 12.09% | 3.22% | 0.47% | 0.15% | 0.03% |
| 108 | Enzo Couacuad | 1490 | 37.31% | 11.92% | 3.94% | 0.73% | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 109 | Maximilian Marterer | 1430 | 46.70% | 10.17% | 2.86% | 0.40% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 110 | Borna Gojo | 1453 | 53.30% | 12.76% | 3.94% | 0.62% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 111 | Michael Mmoh | 1476 | 20.29% | 11.14% | 3.77% | 0.65% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 112 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1714 | 79.71% | 65.93% | 43.68% | 18.53% | 4.39% | 2.21% | 0.69% |
| 113 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1681 | 70.12% | 45.37% | 25.50% | 4.77% | 1.97% | 0.90% | 0.25% |
| 114 | Juan Pablo Varillas | 1533 | 29.88% | 13.28% | 4.86% | 0.51% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 115 | John Isner | 1614 | 67.62% | 31.60% | 14.91% | 2.18% | 0.72% | 0.27% | 0.06% |
| 116 | Jaume Munar | 1486 | 32.38% | 9.76% | 3.03% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 117 | Jan Choinski | 1474 | 35.63% | 9.59% | 2.94% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 118 | Dusan Lajovic | 1577 | 64.37% | 25.01% | 10.97% | 1.39% | 0.40% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 119 | Albert Ramos Vinolas | 1461 | 19.59% | 7.63% | 2.22% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 120 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1706 | 80.41% | 57.77% | 35.58% | 7.29% | 3.25% | 1.60% | 0.49% |
| 121 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 1569 | 55.61% | 22.65% | 2.31% | 0.92% | 0.26% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 122 | Bernabe Zapata Miralles | 1529 | 44.39% | 15.72% | 1.36% | 0.47% | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1627 | 47.97% | 29.09% | 3.75% | 1.78% | 0.61% | 0.24% | 0.05% |
| 124 | Stan Wawrinka | 1641 | 52.03% | 32.54% | 4.44% | 2.19% | 0.79% | 0.32% | 0.08% |
| 125 | Jordan Thompson | 1512 | 39.39% | 2.44% | 0.91% | 0.30% | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 126 | Brandon Nakashima | 1587 | 60.61% | 5.27% | 2.52% | 1.06% | 0.32% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 127 | Pedro Cachin | 1504 | 4.09% | 1.74% | 0.63% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 128 | Novak Djokovic | 2052 | 95.91% | 90.56% | 84.07% | 76.29% | 64.33% | 55.71% | 40.82% |
