We're over a day behind schedule, but with most of round 1 completed at Wimbledon, let's take a look at how those results impacted my ratings of the players still in, and also how well I expect them to do for the rest of the tournament. For now, I'm ignoring completed round 2 matches and for matches not yet completed, I assume the higher ELO player will win the match.
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View my pre-tournament predictions for the
Men and the
Women here. Who's doing better so far, the top players, or the lower ranked players? Some stats I calculated for the top 150 players (completed R1 matches only):
| Rank |
± Men |
± Wmn |
| 1-10 |
18 |
11 |
| 11-20 |
-6 |
17 |
| 21-50 |
-21 |
46 |
| 51-100 |
-44 |
-32 |
| 101-150 |
29 |
-40 |
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Now, my latest Men's ratings and predictions:
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Carlos Alcaraz |
1969 |
92.46% |
81.39% |
60.71% |
46.94% |
32.88% |
17.83% |
| 2 |
Alexandre Muller |
1533 |
7.54% |
2.92% |
0.60% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 3 |
Ugo Humbert |
1525 |
31.87% |
3.29% |
0.65% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 4 |
Nicolas Jarry |
1657 |
68.13% |
12.40% |
4.21% |
1.60% |
0.50% |
0.10% |
| 5 |
Alexander Zverev |
1827 |
85.81% |
54.80% |
21.48% |
13.07% |
6.85% |
2.56% |
| 6 |
Yosuke Watanuki |
1514 |
14.19% |
3.21% |
0.39% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 7 |
Matteo Berrettini |
1738 |
53.21% |
23.05% |
6.79% |
3.32% |
1.36% |
0.38% |
| 8 |
Alex De Minaur |
1716 |
46.79% |
18.94% |
5.16% |
2.37% |
0.90% |
0.23% |
| 9 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1740 |
75.98% |
44.57% |
21.94% |
6.80% |
2.80% |
0.79% |
| 10 |
Dominic Stricker |
1540 |
24.02% |
7.66% |
1.93% |
0.26% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 11 |
Ilya Ivashka |
1572 |
29.76% |
10.11% |
2.88% |
0.45% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
| 12 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1721 |
70.24% |
37.66% |
17.58% |
5.08% |
1.97% |
0.52% |
| 13 |
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina |
1639 |
55.70% |
17.84% |
7.39% |
1.55% |
0.45% |
0.09% |
| 14 |
Botic van de Zandschulp |
1600 |
44.30% |
12.25% |
4.43% |
0.78% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
| 15 |
Roberto Carballes Baena |
1562 |
18.07% |
7.50% |
2.36% |
0.35% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 16 |
Holger Rune |
1824 |
81.93% |
62.42% |
41.49% |
17.05% |
8.89% |
3.30% |
| 17 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1917 |
84.71% |
72.79% |
57.01% |
42.38% |
23.97% |
11.49% |
| 18 |
Adrian Mannarino |
1620 |
15.29% |
8.06% |
3.21% |
1.18% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
| 19 |
Marcos Giron |
1561 |
40.54% |
6.50% |
2.09% |
0.63% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
| 20 |
Marton Fucsovics |
1627 |
59.46% |
12.65% |
5.17% |
1.96% |
0.43% |
0.08% |
| 21 |
Francisco Cerundolo |
1707 |
63.98% |
32.38% |
11.03% |
5.32% |
1.60% |
0.40% |
| 22 |
Jiri Lehecka |
1607 |
36.02% |
13.19% |
3.17% |
1.12% |
0.23% |
0.04% |
| 23 |
Milos Raonic |
1717 |
54.53% |
30.78% |
10.83% |
5.37% |
1.68% |
0.44% |
| 24 |
Tommy Paul |
1685 |
45.47% |
23.65% |
7.50% |
3.41% |
0.95% |
0.22% |
| 25 |
Cameron Norrie |
1734 |
75.87% |
58.11% |
29.92% |
11.90% |
3.96% |
1.09% |
| 26 |
Christopher Eubanks |
1535 |
24.13% |
12.31% |
3.34% |
0.64% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 27 |
Christopher O'Connell |
1540 |
53.93% |
16.72% |
4.63% |
0.90% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
| 28 |
Jiri Vesely |
1513 |
46.07% |
12.87% |
3.20% |
0.56% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 29 |
Ben Shelton |
1508 |
37.88% |
7.39% |
2.37% |
0.40% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 30 |
Laslo Djere |
1594 |
62.12% |
17.45% |
7.44% |
1.81% |
0.35% |
0.06% |
| 31 |
Andy Murray |
1649 |
28.55% |
17.76% |
8.87% |
2.66% |
0.64% |
0.13% |
| 32 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1809 |
71.45% |
57.40% |
40.22% |
19.77% |
8.39% |
2.97% |
| 33 |
Jannik Sinner |
1806 |
79.29% |
68.30% |
46.93% |
31.63% |
10.23% |
4.23% |
| 34 |
Diego Schwartzman |
1573 |
20.71% |
12.82% |
5.05% |
1.91% |
0.26% |
0.04% |
| 35 |
Aleksandar Vukic |
1488 |
49.97% |
9.43% |
2.78% |
0.78% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 36 |
Quentin Halys |
1489 |
50.03% |
9.45% |
2.79% |
0.79% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 37 |
Daniel Elahi Galan |
1470 |
46.02% |
10.28% |
2.27% |
0.59% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 38 |
Oscar Otte |
1497 |
53.98% |
13.54% |
3.33% |
0.97% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 39 |
Mikael Ymer |
1556 |
25.30% |
15.21% |
4.63% |
1.66% |
0.21% |
0.03% |
| 40 |
Taylor Fritz |
1744 |
74.70% |
60.98% |
32.21% |
19.28% |
5.07% |
1.71% |
| 41 |
Guido Pella |
1508 |
52.03% |
23.18% |
5.92% |
1.41% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
| 42 |
Harold Mayot |
1494 |
47.97% |
20.41% |
4.93% |
1.11% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
| 43 |
Corentin Moutet |
1558 |
53.57% |
31.09% |
9.63% |
2.77% |
0.35% |
0.06% |
| 44 |
Roman Safiullin |
1533 |
46.43% |
25.31% |
7.13% |
1.87% |
0.21% |
0.03% |
| 45 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1648 |
62.34% |
24.25% |
16.17% |
6.35% |
1.17% |
0.27% |
| 46 |
Gregoire Barrere |
1561 |
37.66% |
10.79% |
5.91% |
1.72% |
0.22% |
0.04% |
| 47 |
Liam Broady |
1505 |
17.36% |
6.04% |
2.82% |
0.66% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 48 |
Casper Ruud |
1776 |
82.64% |
58.92% |
47.48% |
26.52% |
7.77% |
2.91% |
| 49 |
Andrey Rublev |
1813 |
81.58% |
68.67% |
53.85% |
16.41% |
9.92% |
4.19% |
| 50 |
Aslan Karatsev |
1555 |
18.42% |
10.10% |
4.69% |
0.54% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
| 51 |
Tomas Barrios Vera |
1480 |
40.33% |
7.14% |
2.61% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 52 |
David Goffin |
1548 |
59.67% |
14.09% |
6.41% |
0.72% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
| 53 |
Alexander Bublik |
1648 |
58.68% |
43.13% |
17.15% |
2.90% |
1.12% |
0.26% |
| 54 |
J. J. Wolf |
1587 |
41.32% |
27.34% |
8.94% |
1.18% |
0.37% |
0.07% |
| 55 |
Maximilian Marterer |
1440 |
42.58% |
11.08% |
2.08% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 56 |
Michael Mmoh |
1492 |
57.42% |
18.45% |
4.27% |
0.37% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 57 |
Lorenzo Musetti |
1687 |
74.64% |
39.55% |
6.64% |
3.14% |
1.37% |
0.37% |
| 58 |
Jaume Munar |
1499 |
25.36% |
7.39% |
0.56% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 59 |
Jan Choinski |
1487 |
21.69% |
6.55% |
0.47% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 60 |
Hubert Hurkacz |
1710 |
78.31% |
46.51% |
8.54% |
4.30% |
2.01% |
0.60% |
| 61 |
Tomas Martin Etcheverry |
1578 |
39.69% |
3.35% |
1.24% |
0.42% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
| 62 |
Stan Wawrinka |
1650 |
60.31% |
7.01% |
3.29% |
1.40% |
0.55% |
0.13% |
| 63 |
Jordan Thompson |
1524 |
4.55% |
1.66% |
0.51% |
0.14% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 64 |
Novak Djokovic |
2053 |
95.45% |
87.98% |
78.74% |
67.86% |
57.85% |
42.02% |
And my latest Women's ratings and predictions:
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Iga Swiatek |
1976 |
88.16% |
78.05% |
63.52% |
54.02% |
42.99% |
31.66% |
| 2 |
Sara Sorribes Tormo |
1627 |
11.84% |
6.14% |
2.42% |
1.07% |
0.39% |
0.11% |
| 3 |
Diane Parry |
1530 |
32.90% |
3.49% |
0.97% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 4 |
Petra Martic |
1654 |
67.10% |
12.32% |
5.29% |
2.54% |
1.01% |
0.32% |
| 5 |
Magda Linette |
1605 |
60.35% |
18.56% |
3.44% |
1.42% |
0.48% |
0.12% |
| 6 |
Barbora Strycova |
1532 |
39.65% |
9.01% |
1.24% |
0.39% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 7 |
Danielle Collins |
1680 |
35.30% |
22.75% |
5.62% |
2.90% |
1.26% |
0.44% |
| 8 |
Belinda Bencic |
1786 |
64.70% |
49.68% |
17.49% |
11.54% |
6.65% |
3.27% |
| 9 |
Daria Kasatkina |
1721 |
75.10% |
45.75% |
28.12% |
8.65% |
4.22% |
1.70% |
| 10 |
Jodie Burrage |
1529 |
24.90% |
8.76% |
3.08% |
0.45% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 11 |
Nadia Podoroska |
1515 |
27.25% |
8.05% |
2.68% |
0.36% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 12 |
Victoria Azarenka |
1685 |
72.75% |
37.44% |
21.21% |
5.76% |
2.53% |
0.90% |
| 13 |
Elise Mertens |
1653 |
46.03% |
27.96% |
13.12% |
3.17% |
1.26% |
0.40% |
| 14 |
Elina Svitolina |
1681 |
53.97% |
34.75% |
17.64% |
4.72% |
2.05% |
0.72% |
| 15 |
Wang Xinyu |
1507 |
35.26% |
10.02% |
2.84% |
0.37% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 16 |
Sofia Kenin |
1613 |
64.74% |
27.27% |
11.30% |
2.33% |
0.81% |
0.22% |
| 17 |
Jessica Pegula |
1810 |
87.30% |
72.18% |
54.91% |
35.43% |
15.91% |
8.36% |
| 18 |
Cristina Bucsa |
1475 |
12.70% |
5.21% |
1.70% |
0.36% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 19 |
Elisabetta Cocciaretto |
1548 |
53.14% |
12.50% |
5.27% |
1.54% |
0.28% |
0.06% |
| 20 |
Rebeka Masarova |
1526 |
46.86% |
10.10% |
3.96% |
1.06% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
| 21 |
Katerina Siniakova |
1629 |
46.40% |
29.52% |
10.83% |
4.28% |
1.07% |
0.31% |
| 22 |
Lesia Tsurenko |
1654 |
53.60% |
35.85% |
14.22% |
6.11% |
1.68% |
0.53% |
| 23 |
Alycia Parks |
1514 |
45.48% |
14.74% |
3.62% |
0.92% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 24 |
Ana Bogdan |
1546 |
54.52% |
19.89% |
5.50% |
1.60% |
0.29% |
0.06% |
| 25 |
Veronika Kudermetova |
1760 |
52.81% |
33.23% |
20.90% |
11.69% |
4.56% |
2.08% |
| 26 |
Marketa Vondrousova |
1741 |
47.19% |
28.45% |
17.15% |
9.16% |
3.37% |
1.45% |
| 27 |
Sloane Stephens |
1614 |
37.96% |
11.87% |
5.05% |
1.88% |
0.45% |
0.12% |
| 28 |
Donna Vekic |
1699 |
62.04% |
26.45% |
14.43% |
6.94% |
2.23% |
0.84% |
| 29 |
Marie Bouzkova |
1607 |
39.35% |
16.17% |
5.55% |
2.02% |
0.46% |
0.12% |
| 30 |
Anett Kontaveit |
1682 |
60.65% |
31.30% |
13.90% |
6.37% |
1.93% |
0.68% |
| 31 |
Leylah Fernandez |
1603 |
35.51% |
15.30% |
5.18% |
1.87% |
0.42% |
0.11% |
| 32 |
Caroline Garcia |
1707 |
64.49% |
37.23% |
17.85% |
8.76% |
2.89% |
1.11% |
| 33 |
Ons Jabeur |
1783 |
83.55% |
57.64% |
33.78% |
18.09% |
9.07% |
3.90% |
| 34 |
Bai Zhuoxuan |
1501 |
16.45% |
5.05% |
1.28% |
0.26% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 35 |
Bianca Andreescu |
1668 |
58.57% |
23.63% |
10.39% |
3.98% |
1.39% |
0.41% |
| 36 |
Anhelina Kalinina |
1608 |
41.43% |
13.68% |
5.02% |
1.55% |
0.43% |
0.10% |
| 37 |
Natalija Stevanovic |
1501 |
61.90% |
12.37% |
2.89% |
0.58% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 38 |
Tamara Korpatsch |
1417 |
38.10% |
5.16% |
0.83% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 39 |
Aliaksandra Sasnovich |
1619 |
26.10% |
18.31% |
6.73% |
2.17% |
0.63% |
0.16% |
| 40 |
Petra Kvitova |
1800 |
73.90% |
64.17% |
39.08% |
21.82% |
11.45% |
5.16% |
| 41 |
Beatriz Haddad Maia |
1709 |
73.52% |
36.16% |
16.17% |
7.28% |
2.92% |
1.00% |
| 42 |
Jaqueline Cristian |
1531 |
26.48% |
6.99% |
1.75% |
0.42% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 43 |
Sorana Cirstea |
1630 |
32.73% |
14.88% |
5.25% |
1.83% |
0.55% |
0.14% |
| 44 |
Jelena Ostapenko |
1755 |
67.27% |
41.97% |
21.21% |
10.88% |
5.04% |
1.99% |
| 45 |
Viktoriya Tomova |
1428 |
31.38% |
4.07% |
0.72% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 46 |
Katie Boulter |
1564 |
68.62% |
16.12% |
5.05% |
1.37% |
0.32% |
0.06% |
| 47 |
Alize Cornet |
1562 |
17.58% |
9.76% |
3.03% |
0.82% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
| 48 |
Elena Rybakina |
1830 |
82.42% |
70.04% |
46.83% |
28.74% |
16.26% |
7.95% |
| 49 |
Marta Kostyuk |
1621 |
32.83% |
13.36% |
5.02% |
1.41% |
0.43% |
0.11% |
| 50 |
Paula Badosa |
1746 |
67.17% |
38.63% |
21.01% |
9.09% |
4.23% |
1.62% |
| 51 |
Viktorija Golubic |
1544 |
24.89% |
7.19% |
2.04% |
0.42% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 52 |
Madison Keys |
1736 |
75.11% |
40.81% |
21.67% |
9.11% |
4.12% |
1.54% |
| 53 |
Anastasia Potapova |
1698 |
71.44% |
33.03% |
15.90% |
5.92% |
2.37% |
0.78% |
| 54 |
Kaja Juvan |
1539 |
28.56% |
7.63% |
2.11% |
0.42% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 55 |
Mirra Andreeva |
1558 |
22.57% |
8.37% |
2.49% |
0.54% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
| 56 |
Barbora Krejcikova |
1772 |
77.43% |
50.97% |
29.76% |
13.93% |
6.99% |
2.91% |
| 57 |
Karolina Muchova |
1765 |
72.89% |
42.34% |
19.18% |
10.63% |
5.22% |
2.13% |
| 58 |
Linda Noskova |
1593 |
27.11% |
9.67% |
2.48% |
0.80% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
| 59 |
Madison Brengle |
1480 |
17.69% |
3.74% |
0.60% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 60 |
Ekaterina Alexandrova |
1747 |
82.31% |
44.25% |
19.04% |
10.08% |
4.70% |
1.81% |
| 61 |
Irina-Camelia Begu |
1656 |
62.18% |
17.22% |
6.83% |
2.75% |
0.95% |
0.27% |
| 62 |
Anna Blinkova |
1569 |
37.82% |
7.43% |
2.15% |
0.63% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
| 63 |
Varvara Gracheva |
1578 |
15.09% |
6.58% |
1.97% |
0.60% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 64 |
Aryna Sabalenka |
1878 |
84.91% |
68.77% |
47.75% |
33.53% |
21.61% |
11.86% |
